Michael Dobbs

The bombing over Yugoslavia has ended, NATO peacekeeping troops have moved into Kosovo and the thousands of displaced ethnic Albanians are returning to their war-ravaged homes. Despite relative peace in the region, growing opposition against Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, clashes between ethnic Albanians and Serbs in Kosovo and talks of Montenegro breaking away from the Yugoslav Federation have left many wondering about the longterm prospects for peace.

Washington Post foreign correspondent Michael Dobbs has returned from his assignment in the Balkans and answered your questions Thursday, July 1, about peacekeeping efforts, the refugees' return to Kosovo and the political crisis brewing in Yugoslavia.

In his 22 year tenure at the Post, Dobbs has worked as a correspondent in Belgrade and Paris. He was appointed as chief of the Moscow Bureau in 1988, and subsequently wrote a book about the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1997.

Read the transcript below.

Washingtonpost.com: Thanks for joining us Michael. You've just returned from your assignment in Kosovo. Can you give us your assessment of NATO's peacekeeping efforts there as thousands of refugees return home?

Michael Dobbs: nato's peacekeeping efforts have been pretty impressive, on the whole. they quickly took up position around kosovo, and managed to avoid some of the mistakes made in bosnia in 1996. however, they have not been able to prevent the massive exodus of serbs from the province. by most estimates, some 70,000 serbs have left, out of a pre-war population of around 150,000, i.e. half the serb population. nato has not been able to provide adequate security protection for members of the serb minority who remain, and this could be a big problem for the future. it is important to remember that many serbs are innocent of war crimes in serbia, and fully deserve protection from revenge-seeking albanians.

Washington, D.C. : With the war over, what government will reign in Kosovo? Will the Yugoslav government really come in to run utilities, provide services, police etc.? Or is this a classic case of anarchy with NATO in the middle?

Michael Dobbs: kosovo will effectively be an international protectorate under the control of k-for, or kosovo force, which is predominantly made up of NATO countries. in other words, NATO has assumed responsibility for running kosovo for the indefinite future. it will not be the same as bosnia from 1992-96 when there was a united nations force in bosnia, and the u.n. had to get permission to do everything from the various militia groups running around bosnia. however, that is not to say k-for's task will be easy. i believe it will be hugely complicated.

Bethesda, Maryland: Who are the biggest threats to U.S. troops right now--the KLA or the Serbs?

Michael Dobbs: the biggest threat to u.s. troops are probably the kla, if only because they are more numerous. the kla has announced its intention to cooperate in its disarmament, but there are always going to be individual kla members reluctant to disarm, and there could be clashes with them. most of the serb paramilitary groups capable of causing trouble for u.s. and other nato forces have already withdrawn from kosovo.

NYC, NY: I think NATO made big mistake here: created more refugees and destroyed more things than Milosevic did before bombing, showed the world that our democracy is also violent, put the seed for the next 500 years' Kosovo war, and more important started new cold war -see next year's Russian election-. Do you still think the war worth it?

Michael Dobbs: I think in some ways that this war was a pyrrhic victory of nato. nato certainly won the war, but the costs were huge: more than a million albanian refugees uprooted from their homes, around 10,000 massacred, 1,500 serb civilians killed by NATO bombs, huge destruction throughout kosovo. it is certainly worth asking if there was not a better way of achieving a just result in kosovo. I think that the diplomacy prior to the war might have been somewhat more flexible. that said, however, sometimes democracies have to be prepared to resort to war to achieve their objectives.

Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina: Hi Mike: We've been reading your reportage from Kosovo, a particular pleasure after having just finished your bio of Madeleine Albright. Quite a fine piece of work.

The Kosovo crisis is far from over-- in many ways it is just beginning. Has the Secretary of State's political hand been strengthened by the US government's policy so far on Kosovo? How about the US government's role in NATO? Stronger, or weaker?

Best to Lisa. Come see us when you are next in the neighborhood!

Cheers, A&R

Michael Dobbs: thanks for your message, and i am glad you liked my biography of albright. as you suggest, the kosovo crisis was a very important issue for her, and possibly the defining moment in her secretary-of-stateship. had it ended badly, her reputation would have been badly tarnished. as it is, she can claim at least a half-success, so i think she will emerge strengthened from the crisis, at least in the eyes of official washington, if certainly not in the eyes of serbs. the kosovo crisis, like the bosnia crisis, has shown that the u.s. role in nato is indispensible, and that the europeans are still unable to solve problems in their own backyard, without u.s. participation.

hailsham, east sussex: Why did kosovo war start?

Michael Dobbs: good question, although it would take a long time to answer it fully! you would have to go back to at least 1389, to the big battle of kosovo polje, at which the serbs were defeated by the turks, that subsequently formed a key part of serb mythology. but basically this is a very balkan question: two nations competing for the same small piece of real estate. we see essentially the same thing happening in the middle east, with the jews and arabs competing over the holy land of jerusalem. that is my short answer!

lausanne, switzerland: do you see any chance in kosovo ever becoming an integral part of a future democratic yugoslavia, or is the new currency, independent government etc. foreshadowing of a future secession into kosovo, a country?
thank you!

Michael Dobbs: it is possible, although it will take a huge amount of time to overcome the hatred and mistrust between serbs and albanians. more likely, kosovo will remain formally a part of yugoslavia, because the u.s. and other nato countries are reluctant to redraw the borders. in practice, however, it will increasingly go its own way. the serb population of kosovo is likely to continue to decline over the years...

Richmond, VA: What do you think KFOR will do when the KLA begins
its "freedom fight" in Western
Macedonia?

Michael Dobbs: it is true that there are some kla leaders who dream of a greater albania, that would include parts of macedonia, where albanians are now in a majority. this is one reason why the u.s. is opposed to independence for kosovo, on the grounds that it would only lead to albanians elsewhere demanding independence for the territories they inhabit. it is important that KFOR demonstrate that it can deal with albanians that challenge its authority as well as with serbs who challenge its authority.

washington, D.C.: Michael: If the Western-friendly Montenegro decides to proclaim independence, would the Clinton administration consider providing the country financial assistance?

Michael Dobbs: the clinton administration is already searching for ways of helping montenegro economically, even while denying assistance to the rest of milosevic-controlled yugoslavia. i do not think that the u.s. supports independence for montenegro, as it might lead to another balkan war. on the other hand, given the way things are developing in montenegro, the u.s. may eventually have no choice but to go along with a movement for montenegrin independence. i was in montenegro last week, and it is clear that events are headed in that direction.

bethesda, m.d.: In one of your stories, you mentioned that you lived in Yugoslavia during the Marshal Tito years in the 1970s. Was there any hint back then of the ethnic rivalry and nationalism that would eventually cause the break up of Yugoslavia?

Michael Dobbs: very little hint back then. when i lived in yugoslavia, there was remarkably little ethnic tension, and it was difficult to imagine these wars happening. of course, we had the historical memory of slaughter in world war 2, so it was always a theoretical possibility. tito ruled yugoslavia with an iron hand, and was very effective in balancing the demands of one national group against another national group. he was called "the last of the hapsburgs" for that reason. one area where he was not very effective was economic reform and introducing democracy. had he turned yugoslavia into a market democracy before his death in 1981, it might, just might, have been possible to avoid the disasters that happened in the 1990s.

Washingtonpost.com: We have a little less than half an hour left in this discussion about Kosovo with Post reporter Michael Dobbs. Please continue submitting your questions.

phila, pa: Milosovic has been destabilizing the Balkans for 10 years. What led the US and NATO to decide move definitively against him. The Rambouillet accords did not appear to give him any room to maneuver. The Kosovars were lobbied hard to accept it so that NATO could present Milosovic with a "line in the sand."

Michael Dobbs: it is true that NATO and the us did very little to intervene in the balkan wars over the last ten years. it would have been much better to have intervened in 1990-91 when the country was beginning to disintegrate. but the bush administration was focused on the soviet union at that time, and did not understand the dangers of nationalism in the balkans. at Rambouillet, as i have suggested, i think that u.s. diplomacy might have been more effective had it given milosevic some more room for maneuver. he might have accepted a nato-enforced peace plan that was not dressed up as an ultimatum.

Vienna, Va.: What is being done for the Serbs who are getting brutalized by vengeful Albanians? I've been hearing reports in the news about this, but I haven't heard a good answer yet as to what protection they are being given.

Michael Dobbs: short answer is that NATO is trying to provide serbs with protection, but they can't protect every house in kosovo. the results have varied from sector to sector. the brits, in pristina, have been fairly effective, with the result that serbs are generally staying in pristina. the italians and germans in western kosovo have been less effective about disarming the kla and protecting the serbs. however, it is also true to say that the crimes committed against albanians in western kosovo were greater than in the east, so there is a harder job for nato in the west in protecting the serbs.

Bethesda, MD (again): YOu stated previously that the KLA could be the big threat to U.S. troops. What is the size of the Serb paramilitary units that are left in Kosovo? I understand that many may have stayed behind in secret. Is this true?

Michael Dobbs: hello bethesda again. it is possible that some serb paramilitaries may have remained behind in kosovo secretly, but i doubt if the numbers are very great. the people who did the dirty work in kosovo are simply too scared to remain in the new conditions.

washington, d.c.: Gypsies have also been the victims of brutal violence by Serbs, ethnic Albanians and members of the KLA. What kind of future do you see for this minority group in Kosovo?

Michael Dobbs: yes, when i went to kosovo, i was struck by the large number s of gypsies leaving. albanians accuse them of being allied with the serbs during the war, and being particularly enthusiastic looters. while i am hesitant to criticize an entire ethnic group, i must say that i saw gypsies engaged in wholesale looting as they retreated from kosovo.

Washington, D.C. : Michael,

How does reporting a war like that in Kosovo change your view of human nature, if at all?

Michael Dobbs: a big question. it certainly gave me an insight into the darker side of human nature. war, particularly war as fought in the balkans, is very brutal, and it is not difficult to find heroes. i would say, however, that the number of innocent victims--on all sides--far exceeded the number of evil aggressors. in most wars, it is the civilians who get hurt first, and this war was no exception.

washington, D.C.: What were some of the obstacles you faced in Kosovo as a journalist? Were there any particularly poignant stories that stand out?

Michael Dobbs: it was difficult to get around kosovo, particularly during the period when the serbs were moving out and nato was moving in. there was a security vacuum at the time, so we had to be careful. three german reporters were killed on the roads, and some other colleagues were injured. i don't think that snipers were particularly aiming at journalists, but this is a "shootfirst, ask questions later" kind of place, at least at that time.

rosslyn, va.: what incentives does Belgrade have in relaxing its control over the news media? What kind of restrictions do Serb journalists face when covering a story?

Michael Dobbs: during the war, serb journalists were obliged to submit their stories to military censorship. since the abolition of the state of war last week in yugoslavia, the censorship has been abolished. but there are still informal pressures from the government. i think that independent serb journalists have done a pretty good job , on the whole, but there still needs to be more reporting on the atrocities that were committed by some serb forces in kosovo. this is a difficult subject for serb journalists to tackle, and not only because of government pressure.

Cleveland, Ohio: Now that we have hindsight, is it altogether clear that the Serbs would have wiped out Kosovo to the extent they did if NATO did not start bombing them from the air?

Michael Dobbs: massacres and ethnic cleansing were taking place before the nato bombing campaign started. however, i do not think that the scale of the massacres and expulsion of albanians would have been anything like what we witnessed had it not been for the nato bombing campaign. the bombing campaign was both the excuse and the signal for the serbs to launch an all-out offensive against the kla, which in practice meant an all-out offensive against much of the albanian population in kosovo.

Reston, Virginia: Were most Serbian soldiers forced to carry out the execution of ethnic Albanians in fear of what would happen if they didn't do it, or did they willingly participate? What about the rest of the Serbian population? Do they have knowledge of what their government did?

Michael Dobbs: i think that participation in massacres and killings varied greatly from one military/police unit from another. there were many serb soldiers and police who behaved correctly toward albanians, if you can speak of such a thing in war conditions. there were some who saved the life of albanians. however, there were other units that went on killing sprees. it is impossible to generalize here. my own conclusion was that everything happened in kosovo: from disgusting acts of barbarity to acts of kindness and even heroism.

evanston. il: If, as I understand it, the coal and lead mines, the power plants, the Grand Hotel and almost all the high value infrastucture and real estate belong to Yugoslavia and according the the UN resolution Kosovo still is a part of Yugosalvia. How can Kosovo be rebuilt without the infrastructure and real estate producing funds for Belgrade?

Michael Dobbs: i am not sure how much profit this infrastructure produces for the serbs. a lot of the infrastructure will have to be rebuilt from scratch.

washington, d.c.: It seems that since the end of the war, people have been publicly denouncing Milosevic more often. Is this a sign that Milosevic's power is eroding?

Michael Dobbs: milosevic's position has certainly weakened as a result of the war, but it is too early to count him out. he has tremendous survival skills which he has already demonstrated in the past, notably in 1996-97 when tens of thousands of people came out onto the streets of belgrade and other serb cities to demand his resignation. his trump card is the fact that the opposition is very divided. as a result, even though milosevic is only supported by around 20 per cent of the serb people, according to public opinion polls, he is still the single most respected politician in the country.

Annandale, VA: Are you satisfied that you provided a balanced picture of events in Serbia and Kosovo in the just concluded Balkan war or whatever America wants to call it?

Michael Dobbs: no one is perfect, and journalists certainly aren't. however, i think that the post was able to provide a pretty accurate picture of what was happening in serbia and kosovo. in order to get an accurate picture, you had to read the entire coverage, not just the coverage of one reporter, e.g. my own coverage from belgrade. this was a war with many different facets and points of view, and we had reporters in many places. together, i think, we did a reasonably good job under the circumstances.

New Hope, PA: Clinton said he will not send a penny to Yugoslavia except for some humanitarian aid. Will other countries be helping Yugoslavia to reconstruct? After all, it was the civilians who were hurt the most in Yugoslavia.

Michael Dobbs: the europeans are more eager to supply humanitarian aid to serbia than the u.s. i suspect that some aid will get through, particularly from countries like greece that are neighbors of serbia and want to maintain good relations.

Cleveland, Ohio: Both Bosnia and Croatia, from what I understand, are on the rebound somewhat after 4 years of relative peace. Tourists are returning to the Adriatic coast again and Sarajevo is rebuilding little by little. Is this the indication that you get? Is the peace in the Bosnia and Croatia a model for Kosovo?

Michael Dobbs: i left serbia and montenegro by way of the dalmatian coast of croatia, which is usually packed with tourists at this time of year. this season, it was practically empty. most tourists have stayed away, largely because of the war. dubrovnik was practically deserted. it will take some years yet for the tourism trade to fully rebound. as for sarajevo, it is rebounding, but mainly because of the large international aid community in the city.

FAIRFAX, VA: Michael,

Do you plan on writing any sort of book about your experiences reporting on the war in Kosovo? Assuming you did, what would you title the book?

Michael Dobbs: i have just written a biography of madeleine albright, and will add a chapter on the kosovo war for the paperback edition, which will probably come out next year. as for kosovo, i am not sure i have the energy to write an entire book on the subject right now!

Arlington, VA: Mr. Dobbs,

It seems to me that the former Communist system in Yugoslavia, while economically devastating, at least managed to provide a peace among the various ethnic groups. In retrospect, should some credit be given to Communism, even if it was fear that kept everyone in line?

Michael Dobbs: it is true that tito was able to keep the peace in yugoslavia for 40 years, and deserves a lot of credit for that, even if he was a dictator. however, he did not create the economic and political conditions for his achievement to survive his death. unlike franco, in spain, for example. of course, yugoslavia is a vastly more complicated country than spain. i do think, however, that conditions might have been created for a peaceful breakup, or the creation of a south slav confederation, rather than a violent breakup. however, there is a lot of blame to go around, and the
West also deserves a share of it.

Washingtonpost.com: That's about all the time we have for this discussion. Thanks to all who participated and thanks to Michael Dobbs.

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