Wednesday, Feb. 17, 1999

The recent violence in Kosovo, including the massacre of 40 ethnic Albanian villagers, has sparked a renewed concern over the future of peace in the region. Serb and ethnic Albanian negotiators face a Feb. 20 deadline to accept a Western peace agreement on Kosovo. Meanwhile, NATO forges ahead with plans to deploy an advance rapid-reaction force, made up partially of U.S. troops. What will be the impact of any settlement? What concerns are there over the U.S. contingent of NATO forces? What is the future for Kosovo?

Joseph Montville, director of preventive diplomacy at the Center for Strategic & International Studies joined us to discuss these issues. Since 1994, Montville has specialized in ethnic conflicts like those in Kosovo and other parts of East and Central Europe and the Middle East. Before joining CSIS, Montville spent 23 years as a diplomat in various posts around the world.

Read the transcript below:

Eau Claire, Wisconsin: One of the Serb counter-proposals has been for an upper house that provides equal representation by ethnic group.
While I have little sympathy for Serbia, it seems logical to provide the Serb minority in Kosovo some structural protections in the new government.
Do you think this could or should become of a compromise?

Joseph Montville: It makes sense that there be checks and balances in the transitional arrangement so that the 10% Serbian minority has some protection. Thus an upper house might sound logical. The problem is the record of the Serbian government is so bad in terms of repression of ethnic Albanians and violation of commitments that the agreement will need all the autonomy possible for the province for the Albanians to buy in.

Germantown, MD: Do you believe that the ethnic Albanians living in Kosovo have the leadership that is needed for a successful autonomous country?

Joseph Montville: There is no question that the ethnic Albanians can provide effective political leaders. Over the years Americans, including me, have been meeting quite a few leaders senior and youth and been impressed with their intellect and character.

Miami, Florida: Why after one year of armed hostilities between the Kosovars and Serbs did the international community finally include in negotiations the possibility of blockading Albania? For over a year, Kosovars have been using Albania as a training base and a go between for arms, money and other pro-independence activities.

Joseph Montville: Good question. The international community--specifically Europe, including Russia, and the U.S.--takes a while to come to policy consensus. Compared to the tragedy of Bosnia which took years and enormous amount of bloodshed, the community has acted relatively fast on Kosovo. Albania has had its own very delicate internal politics--with an opposition leader Sali Berisha defying the government that replaced him by overtly supporting the Albanian Kosovar fighters.

Clifton, New Jersey: Do you believe that the people of Kosovo will have the right hold a referendum on independence after the three interim settlement has passed.

Joseph Montville: There are many observers including prominent American commentators that the Kosovo Albanians should have the right to have a rreferendumon self-determination. Others want to see if Yugoslavia can actually have a democratic, multiethnic society. Others fear that an independent Kosova would be a Balkan domino threatening Macedonia and it functioning democracy with a 17% ethnic Albanian minority. A troubled Macedonia threatens the security of Bulgaria, GGreeceand Turkey. It's not an easy decision. I prefer trying to help make multiethnic societies work.

Belgrade,Serbia: Dear mMr.Montville.
Do you think that this deadline for peace talk is really outrageous?
What happened with the saying: "It is better to talk 100 years than to fight 1 day."

Joseph Montville: God knows that my whole life is devoted to non-violent resolution of political conflicts. The trouble with Mr. Milosevic, on the basis of past performance, is that the international community--not to mentions the ethnic Albanians--would think your aphorism might turn into "It is better to stall for 100 years." This is a very difficult situation, and I sympathize with the Serbian population that has to worry about military action.

Cetinje, Montenegro: Please explain the following:

How come every single Western country has invested MAXIMUM effort to keep a (previously non-existent) state like Bosnia together at all cost in the name of "peaceful coexistence". But on the other hand, the real model of coexistence - Former Yugoslavia - was broken up as soon as possible by selective recognition of member republics by Germany & partners. What's Bosnia got that Former Yugoslavia didn't have?

And how come Serbia can be broken up (with an oobviousAlbanian wish for independence) - while the West fought tooth and nail against the establishment of Serbian autonomy in Bosnia?

Mileva Stankovic

Joseph Montville: The complaint in your question is justified. The inability of the U.S. and European states to understand the tragic potential of the breakup of Yugoslavia is in retrospect inexcusable. Memories and biases toward World War II allies in Serbia and Croatia had inordinate influence on contemporary policy makers in Germany, France and the UK. The U.S. as the Bush administration was entering the presidential campaign, ffutilelyhoped, wished, prayed that Europe could deal with it. Policy analysts were ignorant of the dynamics of ethnic and sectarian conflict and how the psychology of victimhood generates fear-based aggression. And the West also did not know how to deal with nationalist demagogues. The mmaximumeffort in Bosnia is as much a reparation by the West for its terrible collapse of leadership at the beginning of the Yugoslav tragedy as anything else.

Cherry Hill, New Jersey: What would happen in Kosovo if the U.S. was not part of a NATO force.

Joseph Montville: If the US wan not part of a NATO plus Russia force, it would not be exercising its leadership function--which includes sharing risks. I might be difficult to get other NATO countries to deploy troops. Fortunately, the US did not dither this time around, the way we did on the Bosnia deployment.

washingtonpost.com: We are roughly half-way through this live online discussion with Kosovo Expert Joseph Montville.

Send your questions by clicking on the Submit Question hyperlink.

Washington, D.C.: Mr. Montville,
In many stories I've read on Kosovo, I've seen references to the "centuries-old" conflicts that have existed between the different ethnic factions in the Balkans. Is the fact that this conflict has been going on so long make it less likely that the groups will reach a permanent settlement now?

Joseph Montville: The burdens of history in ethnic and sectarian conflicts are great. The older the conflict the greater the burdens. I am part of a cadre of scholar/practitioners who believe that psychologically sensitive conflict resolution processes can accelerate a healing process in these conflicted relationships. Time does not heal wounds; only healing heals wounds.

bBudapest hHungary What it will be the next move if the Contact group doesn't find unity for proceeding further? With bombing policy

Joseph Montville: The tthreatto bomb Serbian military targets still holds. There may be attempts to meet the essential security needs of the ethnic Albanians by slightly changing the appearances of the force, but not the non-negotiable security functions of the international peacekeeping forces.

cChicago iIllinois What sort of precedent would NATO bombing of Serbia set for other irredentist groups (Basques, Kurds, etc.)? It seems you can throw international borders up for grabs if you can get ssympatheticcoverage from CNN & the NY Times.

Joseph Montville: There is no question that the threat to bomb a sovereign state in retaliation for its major human rights violations of a minority group is a new stage in the way nations relate. There has been an important evolution of iinternationallyaccepted values about human rights and minority rights that says that no government can hide behind the doctrine of state sovereignty to murder its citizens or destroy their homes. TThetrouble is that the international community is not consistent in honoring these values in all countries. There is a strong residue of political cynicism in the way governments decide where they are willing to get involved. I advocate significantly greater preventive interventions in potential conflict situations at the earliest stages so that presidents and foreign ministers do not have to face the "moral agony" created by the clash between principle and their old fashioned views about realpolitik.

North Bergen, NJ: Dear Prof. Montville:

Why should the Albanians negotiate for less than independence when they have already held a referendum and when its people voted overwhelmingly in favor of independence?
xh thaci

Joseph Montville: The sad situation for the Kosovo Albanians is that they are affected by other regional political balancing acts. The international community is very reluctant to solve intra-state quarrels by agreeing that eeveryvictimized minority should have its own state, flag, currency. There is a strong impetus to help democratic pluralism work. Every country--even Japan--is multiethnic (the Ainu). That is why the issue of independence is so sensitive.

Bethesda,MD: what is your opinion on the kurd's protest? Do you think that they will ever get a homeland?.

Joseph Montville: I have worked closely with Turkish KKurds and they say they are not seeking an independent state. Even Abdullah Ocalan, who was just captured by Turkey, has not insisted in independence in recent years. I would like to see multiethnic democracy work in Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran. I would like to see regional economic and trade relationships in the Middle East that eventually model the European Union. Then there will be free movement of goods, services and people regardless of ethnicity. To make this work will require intensive conflict resolution processes to deal with past losses in history and real healing as part of official peacemaking efforts. It will also require significant investment.

Belgrade, Yugoslavia: Do you agree that the increasing US practice of avoiding existing legal channels in the United Nations when opting for intervention in countries around the world (best example Kosovo) may result in the fact that America will have to single-handedly take the blame for all possible improvisations regarding setting up new states/provinces/aautonomiesetc...

Joseph Montville: I agree that if the US does not work closely with friendly countries like its NATO partners, the EEUand, here I include Russi, that we could get into the trouble you suggest. We need to guided by internationally accepted values about human rights, and to work collaboratively with all governments who support those values.

Tallahassee, Florida: Do you think that the U.S. military should play a role in the crisis in Kosovo, can you blame our top Pentagon officials for opposing the notion of sending U.S. ground troops to Kosovo, and if they do send ground troops, do you think that the same thing will happen in Kosovo than what is happening in Bosnia, where our troops have yet to be returned. thank you for responding, Evan Williams, Florida State University.

Joseph Montville: I sympathize with the US military because of its Vietnam hangover. Our soldiers deserve to have the best thinking of their civilian leaders go into national security decisions. This has not always been the case. However, the US has an international leadership responsibility that requires us to be smart and brave. I bestrategies relyize the risk of harm to our troops if our interantional security strategiesrely on effective early warning systems that produce forthright early response. Preventive diplomacy if practiced wisely can head off almost all of the human tragedies we see. We need to be prprincipledcourageous and firm, working with allies and poling our reresourceso fix bad situations psychologically and materially.

El Cajon, CA: What is the expected response of Russia in regards to the NATO promises of airstrikes and the U.S. proposal of ground troops? Are the Russians shying away from their self-proclaimed,traditional role as the "guardians" of the Balkans and of the Slavic peoples?

Joseph Montville: The Russians have said they would join a NATO force in Kosovo. This is very important. The should be partners in Europe in as many peacekeeping ararrangementss possible

Joseph Montville: This was my first crack at on-line conversation. I am honored to have had the large number of thoughtful and very informed questions. I pray that we get an agreement on Kosovo that protects the humanity of Serbs and Kosovars, that the Serbian monasteries and SeSerbianinority are protected and honored by the Albanian majority in the autonomy perceived, and that the Serbian people emerge from the disadvantaged status they suffer now into a fully honored and respected member of the family of European nations. The time is long past for Serbs to see themselves as protectors of an ungrateful European Christendom. Christians--Latin and Orthodox--have to embrace the humanity of Muslims and, indeed, of each other. It can be done.

washingtonpost.com: We're out of time now, so let's bring this online discussion to a close. Joseph Montville of the Center for Strategic & International Studies has been our guest. Thanks to all for participating.

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