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Sunday, January 23, 2000

As the candidates blitz the state both on the ground and on TV in the final hours before Monday night's Iowa caucuses, the parties are also working hard to get out the vote. Organizers are reaching out to encourage voters to brave the cold and cast their votes at their precinct caucus sites.

How are the parties working to get out the vote? What kind of turnout are they expecting? Iowa GOP executive director Dee Stewart was online on Sunday, Jan. 23 to talk about the caucuses and organizing voters. The transcript follows:

Free Media: Good afternoon, Dee, and welcome. We're getting down to the final hours before the caucuses. What are you and other Iowa GOP officials doing to drum up attendance and support?

Dee Stewart: We're finalizing preparations for the 900 media personnel that will be in attendance at our tabulation center on the campus of Drake University. We're conducting a number of interviews and encouraging every Iowan to attend the caucuses.

Claremont, Calif.: With the nominations likely to be over with this heavily front-loaded schedule in both parties, what central themes do the Republican Party want to stand for?

Dee Stewart: I think that we are the party of less government and more freedom. We are the party that believes that government runs on the people's money -- government works for the people; people don't work for the government. To that end, we believe in lower taxes, less spending, preserving Social Security and reforming our education system.

Free Media: A story in the Des Moines Register the other day talked about caucus traditions and meetings being held in people's homes. How many homes are caucus sites, and how many of these small gatherings make up the event? How are results reported from these house meetings?

Dee Stewart: I don't have a figure on exactly how many sites are homes. Some are homes, some are churches, some are schools, some are community buildings. Virtually every type of building you can imagine has been used as a caucus site. We have an automated telephone system that one reporter from each caucus site will call into in order to report the results from their caucus. The tabulation system will be overseen by state auditor Richard Johnson, who is a Republican.

Free Media: Which of the Republican candidates has the most at stake Monday?

Dee Stewart: I think that John McCain has the most at stake on Monday. I think that his strategy of avoiding Iowa could be a successful one if he's able to finish in the top three here without even campaigning. That could give him a significant push going into New Hampshire. However, if his strategy is not successful and he finishes fourth or fifth, that could create a very close race and he could go into New Hampshire with very little or no momentum.

Free Media: Is Gov. Bush's victory a forgone conclusion? What percentage does he need to win the expectations game?

Dee Stewart: I wouldn't say that any result is a foregone conclusion at this point. I do believe that the Bush campaign is hoping to exceed their margin of victory in last summer's Iowa Straw Poll.

Free Media: What kind of turnout are you hoping for? How much will the weather affect it?

Dee Stewart: I would say that we're expecting between 100,000 and 110,000 Republicans to show up at the caucuses tomorrow night. Weather will be a factor; if it's a nicer night, the numbers could be larger than that. I believe the record is 109,000. Attendance may go up or down about 10 percent, depending on the presidential election cycle.

Free Media: Today's poll published in the Des Moines Register showed Gov. George W. Bush with an enormous advantage over his Republican rivals. Given the amount of candidate activity here, does it surprise you that support for some of the other candidates hasn't moved? Is there a candidate who's doing better than you expected?

Dee Stewart: I think that Gov. Bush is the candidate who's doing better than anyone expected he would. It's difficult for a candidate to sustain such a large lead throughout the course of an entire campaign. But he's been able to sustain that lead since the onset of his campaign.

I certainly think that Steve Forbes is in a position to gain ground, and his biggest challenge is to appeal to voters beyond his base, to convince them to be the next supporter for Steve Forbes. He's in a position to shake things up, and it just depends on how well he can turn his supporters out on caucus night.

Free Media: The Iowa caucus procedures can be a little confusing. What are the main differences between the GOP and the Democratic process Monday?

Dee Stewart: I don't thoroughly understand every nuance of the Democratic caucus procedure. Suffice it to say that the Republican caucus procedure is one in which a person can show up and have himself counted as one vote for any particular candidate. In other words, one person, one vote. On the Democratic side, there are more complicated formulas involving thresholds and proportionality. As a result, our tabulation system traditionally works more quickly, and the general public more easily understands our version of the caucus.

In simplest political terms, a caucus is a precinct meeting. On the Republican side, three things occur at a caucus. First, you must elect two members of the county Republican central committee, which is the board of directors of the county party. You then must hold a presidential straw poll, in which one person for each candidate speaks for some limited amount of time on that candidate's behalf. And then the election is held by secret ballot. Third, a caucus must elect delegates and alternates to the county Republican convention. These are the things that must be done. They can be done in whatever order the caucus votes to conduct the business.

Free Media: There is talk that Alan Keyes may come in third in Iowa or even second. Can you describe his organization in Iowa and how he developed that level of support?

Dee Stewart: Keyes has ardent, extremely committed supporters. His campaign has not raised or spent the resources that the Bush, Forbes and Bauer campaign have raised and spent in building a grassroots organization across Iowa. While Keyes has some level of organization in Iowa, his fate lies largely in the hands of those ardent supporters. It's a question of how ardent they are on caucus night. How committed are they on a cold winter's night in Iowa.

Free Media: The Republican candidates are talking mostly about values and social issues here in Iowa. Is there one point of view that you think particularly resonates with Iowa voters?

Dee Stewart: I think that all six candidates in the race have essentially the same position on virtually every social issue. And so the conservative view on virtually every social issue plays well in Iowa.

I think voters in Iowa look for the same things in a candidate as voters all across America look for. They look at the total package. They look at a candidate's personality, his temperament, whether he is telegenic, his position on issues, and whether or not he is experienced. When you take all of that into consideration, you have great differences among the candidates.

Free Media: There has been some talk that a lot of the enthusiasm for this race left when Elizabeth Dole dropped out. Do you think that's accurate, and how has the race's dynamic shifted since she stepped out?

Dee Stewart: I don't think that there's been a lot of enthusiasm sucked out of the race since [Mrs. Dole] left. She made a big splash when she entered the race, and drew large crowds and generated a lot of attention in the press. With the exception of the Iowa Straw Poll in which she came in, but she was unable to garner or generate the type of enthusiasm that Bush has been able to project through the media day in and day out.

Cleveland Heights, Ohio: What would be considered a loss for George W.?

Dee Stewart: I think that certainly everyone expects Gov. Bush to win. So I think that any result other than a win would be viewed by a loss by most pundits and observers. However, I think that anything more that a 50-point margin win by Gov. Bush will be considered a loss for his opponents (ha ha).

Free Media: Should Iowa retain its first-in-the-nation status in 2004? What would some of the nominating procedure changes under consideration mean for Iowa?

Dee Stewart: Yes, we believe that Iowa's first-in-the-nation status has been good for America. I believe that Iowans care deeply about their government and the leadership of this country, and have taken their responsibility in selecting presidential candidates very seriously. Thus, I believe that Iowa should maintain its first-in-the-nation status in 2004.

There are a multitude of plans under consideration by the Republican National Committee. And there are three central questions facing the RNC as we head into the 2004 cycle. First, should we change it at all? If there is a consensus that we shouldn't change the system, then the system will remain much as it is now. If there is a consensus to change the system, then first, what form will the new system take? And second, should Iowa and New Hampshire maintain their first in the nation status?

Free Media: What will the chatter be on Tuesday morning and what should we make of it? Do the media or the candidates misinterpret the Iowa results?

Dee Stewart: The chatter will be the Iowa Caucus results and what it means for the remainder of the primaries and caucuses to be held, and ultimately for the party's presidential nomination.

The media generally get it right when it comes to reporting the results of the Iowa Caucuses.

Free Media: That was our last question today for Iowa GOP executive director Dee Stewart. Thanks to Dee and to everyone who joined us. Tune in this evening at 7 p.m. EST, when Iowa Democratic Party chair Rob Tully will talk about the Democratic side of tomorrow's caucuses.

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