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Tuesday, February 1, 2000

Presidential primary season officially begins with today's voting in New Hampshire Does winning the Granite State primary assure victory in the national election? Is money everything, even in New Hampshire? Of the non-front-runners, who will gracefully fade away and who will fight it out to the bitter end? Can we expect any surprises? Political analyst Charlie Cook is one of the leading authorities on U.S. elections. Cook is the founder and publisher of the Cook Political Report, as well as a political analyst for the National Journal Group, where he writes a weekly column for National Journal magazine. He also appears regularly on CNN's "Inside Politics." He joined Free Media live Tuesday at 11 a.m. EST to talk about what to expect in this year's election.

Free Media: Good morning, Charlie, and welcome. It's primary day here in New Hampshire, and recent tracking polls show Vice President Al Gore and Sen. John McCain ahead of their rivals by double digits. Care to make any predictions?

Charlie Cook: I would be surprised if either scored double-digit wins. Gore's voters are a lot older than Bradley's are. If there is inclement weather, that could be a factor, but that doesn't appear to be much of an issue.

I think McCain's voters are probably more committed than Gore's voters are. On the other hand, Bush's organization is probably a little bit better than McCain's. But I would expect to see high single-digit wins for both Gore and McCain.

New York, N.Y.: This year's surprise may well come among the nominees for vice president. It's just a hunch, but..I have a feeling that one or both of the parties will look for an African-American to balance out their tickets. A McCain-Keyes or Bush-Keyes ticket could put the Democrats on the defensive. What do you think?

Charlie Cook: There's no question at all that Keyes is a brilliant man and one of the most dynamic speakers in American politics today. The question is: Is he an unguided missile? Would he be a team player? I would be very surprised to see Keyes on the ticket, but I think he would be a very effective surrogate for whoever the nominee ends up being.

While it's not a bad idea at all for either party, it comes down to who would they pick? I don't think Colin Powell would take it. He might take Secretary of State, though. [Okla. Rep.] J.C. Watts would be a possibility. Outside of those two, I'm not sure who they would pick. I think it will happen before too long, but I don't think it's going to happen this time.

Bethesda, Md.: While the Bush presidency is mostly forgettable, there must be some people who have strong feelings about the guy one way or the other. Do you think the legacy of George Bush Sr. will help or hurt George W. if he is the Republican nominee?

Free Media: President Bush attended a campaign event for his son over the weekend, and analysts have debated the wisdom of the move. Is that family connection likely to be a help or a hindrance as George W. Bush seeks to define himself as a candidate and a leader?

Charlie Cook: Yes. I think his father is something of an asset and a liability, but overall more of an asset. I think, he lost the presidency for two reasons. First, within the Republican base, there was fallout from his 1990 tax increase and breaking his "no new taxes" pledge. Secondly, when the recession came, he kept insisting that there was no recession. So even when we came out of the recession, people didn't trust him and he lost credibility.

But after eight years of Clinton, I think a lot of that has been forgiven. I don't think he's a huge asset or a huge liability. Clearly, being George Bush's son has elevated Gov. Bush's stature, but after a certain point Gov. Bush has to win or lose on his own. I think it helped him a lot more in being governor of Texas. It's helped him to this point, but he's going to win or lose the presidency on his own.

Raisin, Alaska: Some futurists are predicting that generational friction will increase in the coming years, as the Baby Boomers start to retire and young people -- particularly young families -- are forced to pay the freight. Do you expect young voters to play an important role in this year's election? Or, looking long-term, do you expect Generation X to finally wake up to the fact that it is getting dealt out of the policy process at every turn and become more involved in shaping that process?

Charlie Cook: Mark me down as a cynic. Young people have never voted in large numbers, and frankly, I don't think they ever will. Until people buy houses, pay property taxes, worry about their kids' schools and feel like they have a stake in their community, they usually don't vote in large numbers. Really, 35 years of age is the time when voter turnout numbers start going up. It's always been that way, and I suspect it always will.

As long as people have their friends help them when they move, and they have cinder blocks or milk crates as part of their furniture, they don't vote. Young people generally have other priorities.

Free Media: Yesterday, Gov. Bush avoided a campaign event in Exeter, N.H. because organized groups of Gore supporters and environmental protesters showed up on the scene and tried to shout down the Bush supporters. Do you think there was a way the Bush campaign could have turned the situation into a winning one?

Charlie Cook: I think that says more about the loss of civility in campaigns. For example, I thought it was poor form for [Nebraska Sen.] Bob Kerrey, a Bradley supporter, to go to a Gore event, and I thought it was poor taste for Gore supporters to throw mud at him. Kerrey should not have gone. It's sad that you have to [avoid] these things, but I think you do. When it's this close to primary day, I think you don't like to take a lot of risks, and I think he was just avoiding an unpleasant situation. It's getting worse. Our society is less civil and our campaigns are a lot less civil than they used to be.

Salt Lake City, Utah: With McCain showing as strongly as he is in New Hampshire, what should we expect if his predictions are right and he wins the primary? Will he be able to put together a real challenge to Bush or will it be a valiant effort with little fruit to show for it?

Charlie Cook: I think McCain's challenge is getting enough of a lasting bounce out of New Hampshire to win in South Carolina and then in Michigan. Notice that both Bush and Gore got bounces out of Iowa, but they only lasted about three days, and then they dropped down again. McCain has to overcome a 21-point Bush lead in South Carolina and a comparable deficit in Michigan.

Atherton, Maine: George Bush's verbal gaffes have conjured up visions of Dan Quayle in the minds of many. Is Bush's reputation as an intellectual lightweight likely to hurt him in the election? My thinking is that American culture is so anti-intellectual, that it won't really matter.

Charlie Cook: I don't think that any of the candidates have had particularly memorable verbal gaffes. In fact, the only one I can remember is Gore's handling of the litmus test for members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. By most accounts, Bush is reasonably intelligent. Certainly, there's no correlation between IQ and successful presidencies. I think his problem in the future debates is that he's simply not as good a debater as Gore is. And most specifically, is there a foreign policy debate? Can he avoid one? Is the effort to avoid one worse than the risk of doing one?

Altoona, Pa.: Charlie, Democrats in Pennsylvania are having a hard time uniting around a candidate for U.S. Senate against Rick Santorum, who was supposed to be one of the weakest GOP incumbents. Some argue we need a conservative, like Ron Klink, others favor Allyson Schwartz who is very liberal,and still others like Tom Foley. Without endorsing a candidate who do you think would worry Santorum the most, and is this race still competitive?

Charlie Cook: I think either Tom Foley or Ron Klink would be the most formidable. Schwartz comes across as way too liberal to win a general election. But the argument against Klink is whether his pro-life, pro-gun positions create problems for him within the Democratic base. It can also be argued, though, that with Pennsylvania, a key swing state in the presidential race, that turnout is going to be high no matter what.

Washington, D.C.: Last night (January 31, 2000) on local CBS news, Gordon Peterson on location in New Hampshire interviewed a woman named Lynn Kahn. Dr. Kahn works at Vice President Gore's National Partnership for Reinventing Government. She is a federal employee and heads several important initiatives for him.

NPRG was reorganized two years under a Democratic political operative named Morley Winograd to help get Vice President Gore elected as president. Gore uses Air Force Two, has hundreds of federal employes at his beck and call and in general uses his position as vice president to win elections. Can there be equal access for Mr. Bradley and the Republicans?

Free Media: It should be pointed out that Bill Bradley, with $20 million in the bank, does not have a shortage of campaign resources. Nor does Gov. Bush.

Charlie Cook: Vice presidents and incumbent presidents have always had these advantages, regardless of which party they're in. Certainly, President Bush in '92 and Vice President Bush in '88 had these same advantages. But I think it can also be argued that Gore is saddled with more liabilities being Bill Clinton's vice president than any comparably situated vice president. He might as well take the benefits, because he's certainly getting the liabilities.

Orono, Maine: Bill Bradley has been laying a pretty good pasting on Al Gore recently. How badly will the questions Bradley is raising about Gore's character hurt him later in the campaign -- once he's gotten the nomination? Do you expect Bradley to back off once its clear that he's not going to win the nomination?

Charlie Cook: While relations between presidential candidates are always strained, the animosity between Gore and Bradley seems palpable. In fact, Bradley makes no effort to hide his contempt for Gore. I think it will be hard to get these guys back together.

Free Media: What do McCain and Bradley need to accomplish today to keep their insurgent candidacies alive?

Charlie Cook: McCain needs a win. The question is, what would happen if McCain lost by a point or two? Is that a win? We should all take these tracking polls with a grain of salt, because primaries are always more difficult to poll -- particularly ones in which independents can vote on either side. what does McCain need to do to win? How big of a bounce will he get if he "wins"? I don't know the answer to that.

My guess is that Bradley will stay in the race through mid-March. I have a hard time seeing how Bradley can lose Iowa big and lose in New Hampshire, where he once was ahead, and remain viable. March 7, he needs to win not only in the five Northeastern states, but he needs to do well in California and Ohio as well. He needs to win on the road outside of the Northeast, which suggests he needs a big bounce out of New Hampshire.

Free Media: That was our last question today for political analyst Charlie Cook. Thanks to Charlie, and to everyone who participated. Your questions were fantastic. Please stay tuned for further events and coverage of the New Hampshire Primary, including post-primary analysis toward the end of the week.

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