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Sunday, January 23, 2000

As the candidates blitz the state both on the ground and on TV in the final hours before Monday night's Iowa caucuses, the parties are also working hard to get out the vote. Organizers are reaching out to encourage voters to brave the cold and cast their votes at their precinct caucus sites.

How are the parties working to get out the vote? What kind of turnout are they expecting? Iowa Democratic Party chair Rob Tully was online on Sunday, Jan. 23 to talk about the caucuses and organizing voters. The transcript follows:

Free Media: Good evening, Rob, and welcome. Can you tell us what you and the Iowa Democratic Party are doing to get out the vote tomorrow night?

Rob Tully: Actually, interestingly enough, the Iowa Democratic Party doesn't get out the vote. The candidates themselves get out the vote. The key to this whole process is the organizational ability of the campaigns and their ability to get their supporters to the polls.

Free Media: What kind of attendance are you expecting at the caucuses tomorrow night?

Rob Tully: You can look at past years -- 1988 was the last time we had a competitive caucus. We had 125,000 Democrats participate. Depending on the weather and other factors -- we believe that if the weather's good and the candidates do their job, we could have a record turnout in excess of 125,000.

Free Media: The caucus procedures are a little confusing. What do we need to keep in mind about what exactly is happening tomorrow night and how to interpret it?

Rob Tully: The one thing to remember is that the numbers that you will see are percentages of delegates elected at the precinct caucus. By the way, you can follow along down to the precinct level on http://www.voter.com. People will be able to see the actual votes as they come in. Voter.com is a non-partisan group and we've developed a system with our audit firm that allows you to log on, see the votes for the total state, and you can go down to the precinct level to see the vote breakdown for Bill Bradley or Al Gore.

Free Media: P.S. It should be noted that the Iowa Democrats have joined forces with voter.com to develop the presentation of these results. Live results will also be available on washingtonpost.com's OnPolitics.

Cleveland Heights, Ohio: Bill Bradley has decided this week to disclose his irregular heartbeat although it has not resulted in any kind of medical appointment. Do you think that he is sabotaging his own campaign by telling folks about a problem that hasn't even resulted in seeing a doctor less than a week before the Iowa Caucus? Thank you.

Rob Tully: There are concerns by some people that by talking about this, for those who support Bill Bradley but their support is soft, it may hurt Sen. Bradley on caucus night. Just recently, CNN did a poll in which 68 percent of Bradley supporters said that they could also vote for Al Gore on caucus night. And by talking about his health problem, it may cause some people to be concerned. However, Sen. Bradley has kept up a vigorous campaign schedule, and most of the supporters that I've talked to are not concerned about it.

Free Media: Today's poll published in the Des Moines Register showed Vice President Gore with a large lead over Bill Bradley. Did you find any surprises in the survey?

Rob Tully: Again, let me go to history, 1984. Sen. John Glenn led in all polls going into caucus night, and came in third or fourth that year. It's all about organization and getting your people out on caucus night. Sen. Bradley's campaign, interestingly enough, has been going after non-traditional caucus-goers such as Democrats who have never attended a caucus, independents and even moderate Republicans. Those individuals may not be reflected in a poll taken of likely caucus-goers. So as I've always said, this race isn't over until all the votes are in.

Free Media: In a rally for Vice President Gore yesterday, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) said when he was running for president in 1980 he'd heard that if you win 30 percent of the votes in Iowa, you win the caucus. He said he won 31 percent in 1980, and doesn't remember giving a victory statement.

Are there any adages or conventional wisdom about the caucuses that hold true?

Rob Tully: Not necessarily. All campaigns at this point in time are commenting on prospective results, and as most of you understand, that's spin. The reality is that you must look at the results in the contest now as opposed to previous contests. An example of that would be: if the vice president gets more than 60 percent and Sen. Bradley stays in the los 30s (31 or 32 percent), that is a solid win for the vice president. If Sen. Bradley can increase his numbers to 40 percent and was able to keep the vice president under 50 percent, that would be a clear indication that the vice president has a chink in his armor.

The one thing you must remember that both campaigns are looking at is providing their campaigns with a solid win. And remember it's not necessary to actually physically win (see Bradley example) to give them what's known as the "Iowa Bump," showing a perception of continued or increased strength to help them in the New Hampshire Primary.

Free Media: How much will the Des Moines Register endorsement help Bill Bradley?

Rob Tully: Certainly, getting any endorsement does not hurt a candidate. However, Iowa voters, like New Hampshire voters, are very independent. And even though both candidates have high-profile endorsements, caucus-goers listen more to the candidates' views on issues and their vision for the future in making their decision.

Free Media: The Post's Dan Balz wrote a story in today's newspaper that said these caucus contests and the election in general is inspiring little or no passion among voters. One Democrat quoted in the story attributed it partly to the generally positive feelings voters have toward both Democratic candidates. Do you agree with that assessment?

Rob Tully: I think that's a good assessment in that generally, there is not a divisive issue between these two candidates. Democrats generally hold very high regard for both the vice president and Sen. Bradley. That's certainly reflected in polls that show that the vice president could easily get some of Sen. Bradley's supporters, depending on the circumstances on Monday night.

Free Media: What happens to Vice President Gore's or Sen. Bradley's supporters if he doesn't reach the "threshold"?

Rob Tully: To explain to those of you online, in our caucus process, it's necessary for one candidate or the other, and even undecided caucus-goers, that they have to make a certain "threshold" of support. Meaning that they have to have a minimum number of caucus-goers in a particular caucus to be able to vote for a delegate in that group. The interesting aspect to the caucuses is that we require in our rules that you must have a minimum of support to be viable. The percentage that you need for viability depends on how many delegates are going to be elected out of the precinct. If a particular caucus group, be they for Gore, Bradley or undecided, does not make the threshold, then they can either decide to remain in their group and not be counted, or they can go to another group. An example of that would be: If there are not enough Bill Bradley supporters at a caucus for viability, they can either join the undecided group or Vice President Gore's group.

The interesting part of the caucus process is that it forces Democrats to discuss among themselves their reasons for supporting a particular candidate, and allows an interaction that is unparalleled anywhere in politics.

Free Media: Should Iowa retain its first-in-the-nation caucus status in 2004?

Rob Tully: Well, as Democratic chair, of course the answer is yes. There's a reason why Iowa has been first in the past, and I know it's difficult for a lot of people around the country to understand why such a small Midwestern state with a small minority population should be given this enormous status of going first. But there's a reason why both Iowa and New Hampshire have gone first over the last 30 years. Iowa is not a "primary" state, such as New Hampshire. This is not a popular vote that takes place in Iowa. This is a vote by party activists to test a candidate's strength and viability for its party nomination. Prior to the early '60s, candidates were chosen in smoke-filled back rooms, and the party, especially here in Iowa, moved to a caucus system that allowed the choice to be debated and chosen in the open forum of the Democratic Party here. This is about party activists who are individuals who read the papers, listen on Sunday morning to all the policy wonk shows, and work every day as committee people and volunteers in the Democratic Party. It is an acknowledgement by the national party that party regulars should have an early voice in the selection process for the presidential nominee from the party. We are very proud and take our job seriously. I have said many times as I travel around the state: to be a member of the Democratic Party is not a right or a privilege, but a responsibility. And I think we take that responsibility to heart, and I'm very proud of the Democrats here in Iowa.

Honolulu, Hawaii: Do you think the weather will depress turnout, especially if it's icy? And if so, will that help Bradley much?

Rob Tully: That is a very good question. And the answer I have to that is, if we were to have an ice storm it would probably help Bradley, because demographics show that Vice President Gore's support comes from activists who are much older. And older Iowans, like many older Americans, tend to avoid going outside when the weather is treacherous. However, weather reports indicate that it will be somewhere in the high 30s/low 40s tomorrow, which for January in Iowa weather, is balmy.

Free Media: What will the chatter be on Tuesday morning and what should we make of it? Do the media or the candidates misinterpret the Iowa results?

Rob Tully: Obviously, both campaigns will be putting their "spin" on the results. The real question, at least on the Democratic side, is whether Sen. Bradley will have substantial numbers to indicate that he'll be able to continue on to New Hampshire and into the future.

Free Media: That was our last question today for Iowa Democratic Party chair Rob Tully. Thanks to Rob, and to everyone who tuned in.

Join us tomorrow -- Caucus day -- for events and coverage of the vote.