| Conflict in Central Asia
With Peter L. Bergen
Author/Terrorism analyst
Tuesday, June 11, 2002; Noon EDT With a million soldiers facing off across the Line of Control in Kashmir, India and Pakistan are seemingly poised on the nuclear brink, and neither has agreed to face-to-face talks. How does India's no-first-use policy on nuclear weapons affect the situation? Is Pakistan's place in the war on terrorism affected? What should be the role of the U.S. and other countries? Author and CNN terrorism analyst Peter L. Bergen was online Tuesday, June 11, to talk about India, Pakistan and the intertwined threads of conflict and terrorism in Central Asia. The transcript follows. Bergen's book, "Holy War, Inc.," chronicles the Islamic extremism that fuels al Qaeda, and the overlying structure that makes it possible. Published shortly after Sept. 11, the updated book is being re-issued in paperback. One of the few Western journalists to have interviewed Osama bin Laden in person, Bergen is a veteran news producer for ABC News and CNN, where he reported on various news stories including the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. He has written for publications including The New Republic, Vanity Fair and The Times of London. A graduate of Oxford University, Bergen won the Leonard Silk Journalism Fellowship and was a Pew-Journalist-in-Residence at Johns Hopkins University in 2001. He was online in February to talk about Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda and terrorism. Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
washingtonpost.com: We're getting a late start. Please stay tuned.
washingtonpost.com: Good afternoon, Peter, and thanks for joining us. The news yesterday of a plot to detonate a "dirty bomb" and the arrest of a suspect arriving from Pakistan highlights both the cooperation between Pakistani and U.S. authorities and Pakistan as a base for al Qaeda operatives. How is the relationship between Pakistan and the U.S. changing -- in both the war on terrorism and the standoff with India? Peter L. Bergen: Since Sept. 11, Pakistan has been a place that al Qaeda or its affiliates have mounted a number of operations, including Danny Pearl's kidnapping and a recent attack on the Sheraton Hotel in Karachi that killed 12 French defense workers. Gen. Musharraf's government is cooperating with the U.S. war on terrorism to the degree it can. However, should the Kashmir situation become more enflamed, that would complicate Musharraf's ability to cooperate with the United States.
Ann Arbor, Mich.: I've read that Musharraf's family fled New Delhi on the eve of partition -- one step ahead of a Hindu mob. Musharraf apparently still bears a grudge against India for this. Is this a common feeling in Pakistan? Peter L. Bergen: There was a little-known holocaust of Muslims fleeing India after partition, during which about a million people died. So there are hard feelings. However, Musharraf doesn't seem like the kind of man who would harbor a personal grudge of such a kind.
Rockville, Md.: I loved your book. It was very enlightening about the overall situation in Arab and other Islamic countries. I came away from it, though, with much less respect for the cultures than I had had before. I think I am fairly well-read, but it was a revelation to me about the repressive ways in which these cultures have evolved. And not just repressive of women, but of any kind of political or non-Islamic expression by anyone. I've also recently read the book, "Germs," detailing issues regarding bio- and chemical warfare/terrorism. Do you have any thoughts on how likely it would be that there would be a successful attack in the U.S. by Islamic terrorists? Peter L. Bergen: I think it's thoroughly possible, although those kinds of attacks wouldn't kill many people, but they would cause a lot of panic. We saw from the anthrax attacks that even high-grade anthrax only killed about five people. Turning these agents into effective weapons is a tricky thing to do.
Alexandria, Va.: Is there an internationally-recognized border between India and Pakistan? If so, are any Pakistani forces on the Indian side of that border? Peter L. Bergen: There's something called the Line of Control, which the United Nations adjudicated after the war in 1948 between India and Pakistan. Another key point is that the UN said that a referendum should be held in Kashmir as to what Kashmiris want. A referendum that has never taken place. Because what Kashmiris want is to be independent. The Kashmiris do not like the militants coming in from the Pakistani side, at the same time that they don't like to live under Indian rule. Most Kashmiris were born under an independent state. The Indian position is that if they let Kashmir go, other regions that make up the country might also devolve.
Washington, D.C.: What would India lose by relinquishing Kashmir to Pakistan? Does Kashmir have strategic military importance? Does the area have natural resources, like oil or coal? Do the residents of Kashmir want to become part of Pakistan? Peter L. Bergen: Kashmir's a very beautiful region that has some strategic significance, because it controls the approaches to India from China or Pakistan.
Seattle, Wash.: How does Pakistan reconcile their support for Kashmiri self-determination with the ceding of Kashmiri territory to China? Peter L. Bergen: China ceded that territory in Kashmir in the early '60s, but basically it's uninhabited and a bunch of glaciers. This territory didn't have any particular value.
Boston, Mass.: How likely is nuclear war between these two nations? I've heard that Pakistan's bombs couldn't even reach Delhi during a time of war. Do you think that they would bomb states/provinces like Gujarat and Punjab instead? Peter L. Bergen: I think it's extremely unlikely. I mean, whateveer saber-rattling noises are made, the estimates are of 12 million deaths if there were a nuclear exchange. It's one thing to send a nuclear missile to a country several thousand miles away; it's another thing to send it to one of your neighbors. Islamabad is very close, and so is Lahore, a major Pakistani city. If the wind is blowing the wrong way...
Cumberland, Md.: I know that all the "Stans" are weak politically and have radical Islamic cells, but which of the "Stans" do you consider the most likely to have large groups of al Qaeda operatives? Peter L. Bergen: Pakistan. I was just in Uzbekistan and Kazakstan, and just from traveling around, I never really heard the call to prayer in either of those countries. The regime in Uzbekistan has cracked down on any sort of Islamic group. I don't think there's a huge presence of al Qaeda in either of those countries.
washingtonpost.com: Yesterday, Afghanistan's former king, Mohammed Zahir Shah endorsed Hamid Karzai, chairman of the country's interim government, to continue leading the country. What do you think is in store for the loya jirga, Karzai and the Afghan government in the coming months? Peter L. Bergen: Good question. This loya jirga seems to be having some problems in terms of vote manipulation, but it's the first time in 23 years that representatives of the Afghan people have gotten together to decide the course of the country. I'm optimistic. I don't think there's any kind of constituency for another war. All the people in that loya jirga went through the civil war in the early '90s, when Communism fell, and they'd have to be mad to start again. Plus I do think the international community is engaged more than before. Not saying that that engagement is perfect, but it's more than it was.
Newtown, Pa.: How can a country like Pakistan and its intelligence agency so deeply embroiled with extremist groups in promoting terrorism be trusted as a genuine partner in bringing peace to the region? Peter L. Bergen: That's again a very good question. Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan, was a Cambridge-educated lawyer who wore Saville Row suits. While he intended for Pakisan to be a Muslim state, it certainly wasn't supposed to be a radical, Khomeni-style country. There's always been a tension between the more secular ideals and the religious parties. I really believe that Musharraf is more in the Jinnah tradition. He understands that the religious parties are very vocal, but they don't get that many votes when there is an election. I think there is a sort of silent majority that is intensely Muslim, but doesn't hold truck with the militants.
Cumberland, Md.: How much do you think the radical movements in the Ferghana Valley are a threat to the stability of the region? Peter L. Bergen: I think that their threat has receded, partly because they've lost their Taliban allies, which made a big difference. They were training in Afghanistan, and they were fighting alongside the Taliban, but they don't have Afghanistan anymore. I think the governments of a lot of these countries have made a big mistake, however, by clamping down on any kind of Islamic group. Because they've inadvertently created these militant groups. In Central Asia, the general population is Muslim, but it's not like they're Wahabbis or anything.
Syracuse, N.Y.: Pakistan says they want to go back to UN accord of 1949 and ask for election in Kashmir. India talks about 1972 Simla accord. So much has changed over the years. We can't recreate the history here. Why don't they just convert the actual line of control into international border and focus on economic development istead? Is it too naive way of thinking about the problem or what? Peter L. Bergen: I think the main problem is that Kashmiris themselves would be very unhappy about that solution. One thing about the Kashmir problem is that it keeps the military in both countries in business. I've spent more time in Pakistan than in India, and I think it's more important to Pakistan.
washingtonpost.com: That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the discussion.
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