| Kentucky Derby
With Andrew Beyer
Washington Post Columnist
Thursday, May 1 2003; 1:30 p.m. ET Who will win the 129th Kentucky Derby? Can Buddy Gil, who recently won the Santa Anita Derby, beat the favored Empire Maker? How has the rise of performance-enhancing drug use on horses marred the credibility of the sport? Washington Post columnist Andrew Beyer was online to discuss Saturday's Kentucky Derby. Beyer has been The Post's horse racing columnist since 1978 and is considered one of the leading experts on the subject. He has written four books on racing. The transcript follows. Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Hartford, Conn.: Horse trainers are famous for shoveling tons of manure in their pre-race comments, but Bobby Frankel seems to be different. Do you accept at face value his assertion that Empire Maker's foot bruise is not a serious issue? Also, I'm sure you noticed that with legal medications so commonplace, Empire Maker's treatment with Bute this week has practically been ignored. But it would be an issue in the Belmont in New York, where that drug is not allowed. Andrew Beyer: I consider Frankel a pretty straight shooter; most trainers would have lied when asked about a similar foot problem. So
I'm inclined to accept his assurances that it's not a big deal. With all the drugs that are legal in Kentucky, they can treat anything.
However... I am reminded of Wayne Lukas' maxim that "you can't make any compromises and win the Derby," and Empire Maker's training has probably been compromised a bit.
Northampton, Mass.: In your book, Picking Winners, you devoted a chapter about a horse's appearance before a race being an indicator as to how they might run. With 150,000 jamming Churchill Downs on Derby Day and all of the commotion this crowd will bring, obviously some of the field will become unnerved. How much stock should I put into a horse's appearance in the paddock or during the post parade when I decide to play or not to play a particular horse? Andrew Beyer: I'm sure that it is important to watch the warmups and see which horses are going to pieces amidst the Derby hubbub--but getting a good look at the horses is pretty difficult, and getting to the windows after seeing them is doubly so.
Laurel, Md.: What do you consider to be the most advantageous post to start from at Churchill Downs? Andrew Beyer: Despite what all the trainers think, I believe being inside is always best. Trainers of horses who come from off the pace always want to take outside posts, but then the jockeys immediately try to maneuver toward the rail. Why not start there in the first place?
Arlington, Va.: Where do you normally watch the Derby from? Andrew Beyer: On a TV monitor in the Churchill Downs press box. Although I have access to one of the better seats in the house, it's difficult to follow the action here through binoculars.
White Plains, N.Y.: A lot has been said of the slow closing time of the finishers in the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita and the speed favoring rail trip Peace Rules enjoyed winning The BlueGrass at Keeneland. How much emphasis do you put on these factors in your handicapping? The fact is, Buddy Gil and Peace Rules did what they had to do winning two important preps. Thanks. Andrew Beyer: Well, if you're a handicapper you've got to look critically at every horse's performance, even if the horse is a winner. I'm always try to identify horses who aren't really as good as they might have seemed. I did not like Peace Rules' Blue Grass at all; he benefited from running on the rail over an extremely biased track, but still he didn't blow away the field or earn a big speed figure.
I didn't like the Santa Anita race, period. The speed figure was ordinary, and those horses were virtually staggering in the stretch.
Vermont: Andy, Do you think Atswhatimtalkinbout has a chance to close into the Exacta or Trifecta? Andrew Beyer: I hate him.
St. Louis, Mo.: I like Offlee Wild's breeding for the Derby distance, and I'm always a sucker for an Alydar-bred horse like Brancusi. Can you give me any encouragement at all for backing these longshots in some exotics? Andrew Beyer: I can't see Offlee Wild, but Brancusi looks to me like the most promising long bomb in the field. He was chasing a very fast pace in the San Felipe Stakes and was the only horse near the early lead who was still around at the finish. In the Blue Grass, while Peace Rules was hugging the rail, he was chasing from the outside -- a very disadvantageous trip at Keeneland. He'll probably be 40 to 1 or so, and he can get into the trifecta.
Ironton, Ohio: Before post positions I was leaning toward Lukas's horse Scrimshaw because Lukas has pulled the magic before with a win at the Bluegrass or Lexington Stakes. Do you think Scrimshaw still has a chance at post position 17? Thanks. Andrew Beyer: I don't think D. Wayne can pull a rabbit out of a hat again. When he won with Charismatic, his horse had a solid speed figure that suggested he could win the race. This horse doesn't. And he comes off a pretty soft trip at Keeneland to boot.
Greenwich, Conn.: Dear Mr. Beyer: Do you see enough pace developing in this race to warrant the use of some deep closers (e.g. Sir Cherokee or Atswhatimtalknbout) in your exotics or do you think it will be crucial to use only horses that are more likely to be more forwardly-placed? Andrew Beyer: I think the pace scenario is a little unclear. There are a number of horses with good tactical speed, but you don't necessarily have one tearaway front runner who is going to insure a lightning pace. But after last year I don't think the jocks are going to let anybody coast on the lead.
Frederick, Md.: Andy: I have a question regarding your Beyer Speed Figures. Are the figures adjusted to account for the quality of the race? As an example, two horses run a 1:10 for 6 furlongs (different races, same track, same day, same variant). One race is a stakes race and the other is a low-level claimer. Would these two horses receive the same Speed Figure? Andrew Beyer: No, the figures reflect only the time of the race and the inherent speed of the racing surface. If a claimer and a stakes horse ran 1:10 on the same day, they would get the same figure (assuming that the track didn't change during the day or that some aberration was involved.)
Buffalo, N.Y.: With the proliferation of simulcast and online wagering and low on site attendance, do you think we are headed for a consolidation into a handful of "Super" tracks rather than the 50 or more that we have now? Andrew Beyer: When simulcasting began, I thought this was going to happen. And I think some consolidation would be good for the sport. There are too many tracks running too many races with two few horses. Do we really need Fairmount Park running six-horse fields?
But the consolidation hasn't happened to any meaningful degree; there are still too many tracks operating long racing schedules that shouldn't be doing so.
New York: In a race like this year's Derby where there's everything on the line and you have an overwhelming favorite, what are the odds of gamesmanship by the riders of the other horses to make sure Empire Maker doesn't enjoy the finest of trips? Bailey is a master, but starting from post 12 one would think Empire Maker may be subject to some chicanery. Thanks Andy. Andrew Beyer: I would not anticipate such a conspiracy. Bailey seems to get a lot of deference from his fellow riders.
Louisville, Ky.: Which horses make up your superfecta entry? Andrew Beyer: I'd use only Ten Most Wanted and Empire Maker in the top spot. Underneath--Funny Cide, Sir Cherokee and Brancusi. As I said earlier, Brancusi has long-bomb potential that could make the exotics lucrative.
Laurel, Md.: Other than installing slot machines, what does Maryland need to do to revitalize its racing?
Andrew Beyer: I've been writing for years--decades, actually--that the Maryland tracks need to be more customer-friendly and take better care of their hard-core clientele. Obviously, they need to make certain physical improvements; there still isn't a decent simulcast area in all of Pimlico. But I'm afraid that without slots the tracks are facing big trouble in the long term, because Pennsylvania is on the verge of legalizing slots and the competition from Philly Park and Penn National would be devastating.
Washington, D.C.: Andy,
Do you think Ten Most Wanted's chances are enhanced, compromised, or not effected by his post position (16)? Andrew Beyer: I don't think so. The horse is going to drop pretty far off the pace anyway, so his starting position is probably not that important.
New York: What is your opinion on the Kentucky Oaks? Andrew Beyer: I've got a little future-book position on Lady Tak so I'm rooting for her. The track at Keeneland was very biased on the day Elloluv won the Ashland, leading all the way on the rail. Meanwhile, Lady Tak was parked three-wide and some other Oaks entrants had wide trips, too. So in the Oaks I'll probably take a position against Elloluv and use the ones who raced wide against her.
Baltimore, Md.: Any thoughts on how Dynever would have done had he been entered? (I think he may be the best three year old in training!) Andrew Beyer: I like Dynever a lot, too, but Christopher Clement is absolutely doing the right thing with him; he doesn't have enough seasoning to be thrust into the Derby at this stage of his career. But he may be poised to spring an ambush in the Belmont.
Gilbert, Ariz.: Gary Stevens recently said that the track at Santa Anita was unusually slow, due to the sand which was a recent addition. I know your speed ratings are an attempt to allow one to compare different surfaces, but are you confident the 104 for the Santa Anita Derby is a "fair" number? Andrew Beyer: I am confident. We always take into account the inherent speed of the racing surface--that's the purpose of speed figures. Despite the history of the S. A. Derby in producing Kentucky Derby winners, this year's field was just not so strong.
San Francisco, Calif.: What's the difference -- conceptually or methodogically -- between the Ragozin speed rating and Beyers numbers? Thank you Andrew Beyer: In addition to the time of the race and the inherent speed of the racetrack, the Ragozin numbers take into account how wide horses race on the turn and the weight that the horses carry. They would say that these factors make their numbers more accurate, but I would not agree. While they take into account these factors, they ignore things that are far more important (pace and track bias) yet represent their numbers as an all-encompassing expression of a horse's ability. Our figures simply tell you how fast a horse ran in previous races.
Hampton, Va.: Mr Beyer: What do you think the closing odds on Empire Maker will be? Andrew Beyer: I'd guess 7 to 5 or so. The foot bruise might deter some bettors, but I don't think any other horses besides Ten Most Wanted have much of a constituency.
Andrew Beyer: Thanks for your questions, everybody. Have a profitable Derby.
washingtonpost.com: That wraps up today's show. Thanks to everyone who joined the discussion. © Copyright 2003 The Washington Post Company | 
