| The Preakness
With Andrew Beyer
Washington Post Columnist
Tuesday, May 13 2003; 10 a.m. ET Who will with the Preakness Stakes on Saturday? How has trainer Bobby Frankel's announcement that Empire Maker will not run changed the dynamics of the race? Is Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide a legitimate contender for the Triple Crown? Washington Post columnist Andrew Beyer was online to discuss the Preakness, the results of the Derby and horse racing in general. Beyer has been The Post's horse racing columnist since 1978 and is considered one of the leading experts on the subject. He has written four books on racing. The transcript follows. Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Silver Spring, Md.: Will this be the worst Preakness field you've ever seen? Andrew Beyer: It's pretty weak, with no depth behind Funny Cide and Peace Rules, but it's not as bad as 1993. Prairie Bayou won that year with a Beyer Speed Figure of 98. Funny Cide's 108 in the Derby is just a little below par.
Pittsburgh, Pa.:
Why do you criticize the Churchill stewards so much when the Miami Herald photo appears to clearly show something in Santos' hand, and on top of that, newspapers reported that Santos subsequently gave what seemed to be conflicting statements about having something in his hand? Isn't that suspicious? When the Breeder's Cup Pix 6 scandal broke, you criticized the tote company executives for initially playing down the alleged scandal and for not taking the fix seriously. Why do you treat the Churchill stewards differently? Given your position on the Pix 6 scandal, I anticipated you praising the Churchill stewards for being quick, honest, and candid -- the photo looks suspicious. Period. What gives? washingtonpost.com: Derby Stewards On the Wrong Track (Post, May 13) Andrew Beyer: The Breeders' Cup events looked like a scandal at first glance; nobody could conceivably singled the first four winners of the pick six without cheating.
The probability was low that a jockey would be using a battery in the Derby. Yes, the picture looked questionable. And it absolutely deserved investigation. (I would have castigated the stewards if they didn't investigate.) But the stewards' comments before they investigated fanned the flames and turned this into a media frenzy.
Washington, D.C.: I hope Funny Cide wins the Triple Crown, for two reasons:
1. We haven't had a Triple Crown winner in AGES.
2. As a gelding, Funny Cide can have a long racing career ahead of him. So often, Derby winners retire to stud months or even weeks after the Belmont, and we never see them race again. The last great gelding, Forego, raced until he was seven years old! Andrew Beyer: I, too, am sick if seeing top 3-year-olds whisked off to stud prematurely. If Empire Maker has a big 3-year-old season we'll probably never see him again. So it would be great for the game if Funny Cide holds his form and keeps running for years.
Hartford, Conn.: The Preakness had a prospective field of about six only a week ago, but now it has swelled to a dozen. My thought is that the photo controversy coming out of the Miami Herald gave opponents hope that the Funny Cide connections might become rattled, even inducing Jose Santos to give one of his patented, panicked rides on Saturday instead of the flawless performance in Kentucky. Your comments? Andrew Beyer: That's certainly a possibility. I've never been a fan of Santos, but in the last year or so he is a new jockey; he's been riding extremely well. I think that the field swelled because owners and trainers looked at the fact that there were only two decent horses in the field and that it might be worth taking a shot.
Baltimore, Md.: I am wondering if Dynever's Beyer in the Lone Star Derby showed he is at the same level as the Derby winner. Do you have his number and can you share it? Andrew Beyer: Dynever's number at Lone Star was only 98. So he'll go into the Belmont with figures way below his competition. Nevertheless, this horse has been more impressive visually than any member of his generation, in my opinion. He accelerates in the last furlong and blows away his competition. He can win the Belmont.
San Francisco, Calif.: How much did Scrimshaw's 17 position in the Derby hurt him and with a better post position can he finish 1 or 2 at the Preakness? Kevin Andrew Beyer: I don't think it hurt enough to suggest that he can improve and win the Preakness. I wasn't particularly impressed with his win in the Lexington--easy trip, low fig.
Jackson Heights, N.Y.: Andy, I love the Preakness and enjoy the annual visit to Pimlico. But given the deterioration of the track's main plant, how many more Triple Crown races do you predict we'll see at Pimlico before some kind of significant renovation or reconstruction? Andrew Beyer: We'll probably see a lot amidst the track's decrepitude, unless Maryland legalizes slots. To rebuild or substantially renovate the track would cost a fortune, and it wouldn't make sense economically. Pimlico is never going to generate great business or ordinary days--Laurel is the focal point of Maryland racing--and the track has pretty much maxed its revenue from the Preakness. But if they get slots, they'd have the money to rebuild the track completely.
Bowie, Md.: Can Peace Rules win? Andrew Beyer: Absolutely. He had a more difficult trip in the Derby than Funny Cide, and he beat Funny Cide in the Louisiana Derby.
Bowie, Md.: Does Ten Cents a Shine have a chance? Andrew Beyer: No--although I was amazed that Lukas improved him as much as he did in the Derby. I thought he was a cinch to finish last.
Harleysville, Pa.: Are the Beyer speed figures more reliable than the competing Trackmaster or Bloodstock (Bris) numbers? Andrew Beyer: This is a self-serving answer, but yes. Our figures are all calculated by people who analyze the data and use their judgment; the Trackmaster and BRIS numbers are generated by computer, without any human oversight.
Audaxmin, Ore.: What sort of track bias can we expect to see at Pimlico on Saturday? Does a small field reduce the effect of track biases? Andrew Beyer: Despite its reputation as a speed favoring track, Pimlico is even and unbiased most of the time. However, it has always been disadvantageous to be parked wide on the sharp turns at Pimlico. If there is a 12 horse field, and one of the two main contenders draws an outside post and gets hung out very wide, that could make the difference in the Preakness.
Macon, Ga.: You seem to be holding strong with your contention that there are only two strong horses in this race. No props for Atswhat's late rally? Where do you see him finishing? Andrew Beyer: He's not running; he's waiting for the Belmont.
Bedford, Mass.: From what I've seen on TV you seem to place a great deal of emphasis on the horses last race. Is this perceived mindset only for 'the big ones' -- i.e. Triple Crown, Breeder Cup -- or do you weigh the last race heavily in your daily handicapping as well? Andrew Beyer: A horse's last race is the most important piece of evidence about his current form. Sometimes you're justified in disregarding it--say, with Indian Express' Derby, where he was eliminated by the early trouble he encountered. But I never say "I'll throw out that race" unless I have a clear and convincing reason for doing so.
Wavery Hills, Arlington, Va.: I'm not sure I feel comfortable gambling on horse races anymore. It seems like there's no way to be sure that the races aren't fixed in some way. What does the industry need to do to reassure the public? As for me, I'm staying away from the track until things change. Andrew Beyer: I, too, am made uncomfortable by the suspicion that the use of illegal drugs is out of control in racing--from the Kentucky Derby to the bottom levels of the game. I don't think the issue is what the industry has to do to "reassure" the public. It needs to take much stronger steps to guard against drugs and to throw the book against cheaters. I am very happy that Belmont is going to have a detention barn to house the starters for the Belmont Stakes.
Portland, Ore.: In last year's Preakness War Emblem was nearly caught at the wire by longshot Magic Weisner's furious late run. While handicapping that race I remember liking that Magic Weisner had run well previously at Pimlico. Do you envision Cherokee's Boy (who is 3 for 3 at Pimlico) having a similar advantage -- and at an equally nice price?
Also, in last year's triple crown races -- how much improvement in terms of speed figures did Magic Weisner and Belmont Stakes winner Sarava display? Were their performances as much a surprise to yourself as they were to the betting public? Andrew Beyer: I'm not a big believer in "horses for courses" and I don't think his liking for Pimlico will help Cherokee's Boy in any case. He's far behind these horses in ability. Magic Weisner ran his big Preakness race last year in part because there was a hot early pace to help his off-the-pace style; Sarava surely improved because he was one of the few horses in the field who was good at 1 1/2 miles. But I can't foresee any scenario to move up Cherokee's Boy.
Bowie, Md.: From a gambling/handicapping perspective, are Maryland's daily cards, full of maidens, restricted claimers, and six-horse fields, at all interesting to you?
Andrew Beyer: Well, you can find betting opportunities anywhere, but you find them a lot less often in small fields of bad horses. The bottom-level races in Maryland have been especially dismal since Charles Town has siphoned off so many of the cheaper claimers and maidens.
Bethesda, Md.: Do you see any chance for local Maryland star Foufa's Warrior to pull a Magic Weisner this year? With all the speed on the front end, the Preakness sets up once again for a deep closer to pick up the pieces. Andrew Beyer: I think he could get a piece of the purse for just the reason you cite: he's got the right style.
Lutherville, Md.: In view of the increasing fragility of the modern day thoroughbred, it seems clear that the the Preakness is positioned poorly. By that, I mean that the two-week interval between the Derby and the Preakness is not enough time for the modern day horse to recover from the rigors of the Derby. This year's Preakness has been described in various quarters as "diluted" or "marginal" and it's hard to argue. Do you think the spacing of these races should be high on the agenda of everyone involved in the Triple Crown? Andrew Beyer: This is the subject of my column that will be in Wednesday's Post.
Bowie, Md.: Who will win and why? Andrew Beyer: It's a two horse race: Funny Cide vs. Peace Rules. I want to see the post positions and the final composition of the field before I make a choice, but my instincts in a rematch like this are always to go with the horse who had the tougher trip--Peace Rules.
Laurel, Md.: Don't know if you're doing a chat before the Belmont, but in case you're not... Is a 1.5-mile dirt race an anachronism? The Belmont is the ONLY Grade I or II race on dirt in the country, and it's for developing three-year olds. Considering the number of breakdowns, isn't it time to re-consider whether there should even be such a race?
Andrew Beyer: Yes, I'll be doing a pre-Belmont chat.
Thanks for joining me, everybody; sorry I couldn't get to all of the questions.
Have a good Preakness.
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