| NCAA Basketball
With Matt Rennie
Washington Post College Sports Editor
Wednesday, March 19, 2003; 1 p.m. ET Spring is around the corner. The birds are chirping, the sun is shining and the office copiers are churning out hundreds of NCAA tournament bracket sheets. Who will make it to the Final Four? Where do you see upsets? How screwed up is the ranking this year? Washington Post College Sports Editor Matt Rennie will be online Wednesday, March 19 at 1 p.m. to discuss the NCAA tournament, how to fill out your brackets and college basketball in general. Submit your questions and comments before or during today's discussion. Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Matt Rennie: Good afternoon, everyone. Lots of early questions, and I've never done this before so we'll try to get an early start. One disclaimer: My prognostication skills are miserable, so only follow this advice if your looking to write off your pool entries as tax deductions.
Burlington, Vt. via Bethesda, Md.: Just a comment -- Let's show some love for the Vermont Catamounts! Yeah, we'll probably get spanked by Arizona, but as an alum, I can tell you that I'm in heaven right now. Giving small schools a chance to compete at this level is what truly makes the tournament great. Matt Rennie: John Feinstein will have an article in tomorrow's paper that might interest you. I sit across from a UVM alum, so I can't ignore the Catamounts -- at least while they're still around.
Alexandria, Va.: So the Big East only got four teams in this year. Sounds about right to me considering the out of conference schedule those teams play. What do you think? Matt Rennie: Boston College might have gotten a bad deal. The inclusion of Alabama in the field gave a LOT of teams the right to complain, but yeah, I don't think the mid-level Big East teams should feel any tremendous injustice. The way Notre Dame finished the season, the Irish were lucky to get in.
Ames, Iowa: How do you think Iowa State will do in the NIT this year? I think they deserved an NCAA bid, don't you? Matt Rennie: God bless the 'Clones, now and always. Tough year for Larry Eustachy.
Washington, D.C.: I love upsets in the NCAA tourney -- have you predicted any? Matt Rennie: If you could predict them, they wouldn't be upsets. But I think Central Michigan is under-rated against previous tournament darling Creighton. I also think Wisconsin-Milwaukee could knock out reeling Notre Dame.
College Park, Md.: I must be the only person in this town who thinks this, but: I'm tired of all the griping about teams being seeded too high/too low. This was a very difficult field to seed, for one reason: inconsistency. Pretty much every team that was supposedly "disrespected" in the seeding process has lost games that they shouldn't have. Just look at the number ones: only ONE number one seed didn't lose to a non-tournament team. No, it's not Kentucky (they lost the UVa). It's Oklahoma, and one of their SIX losses was to Alabama, which barely made the field (and arguably shouldn't have). The bottom line: quit griping about your seeding. When I look at this tournament, the vast majority of teams could either drop out in the first round, or make it to their regional final, if not the Final Four. That makes it hard for me to fill out my brackets, but it's going to make for a really fun tournament. And how could anyone complain about that? Matt Rennie: You're correct in that seeding means little, particularly this year when only two teams appeared to deserve No. 1 seeds. That said, Kansas has a legit gripe in that the Jayhawks not only were seeded below two teams they finished ahead of in the regular season, they get sent to the toughest region in the bracket. So why play the regular season? And I say this not for the benefit of the KU grads surrounding me.
Detroit, Mich.: Matt --
We're having a Fantasy NCAA Draft tonight where you keep track of a player's points in the tourney. If you had the #1 pick -- who would your draft and give me a sleeper off of a lower seed who might go far? Thanks. Matt Rennie: Keith Bogans seems like a reasonably sure thing in such a contest. Sleeper? perhaps Marquette's Dwyane Wade.
Mt. Lebanon, Pa.: The NCAA selection committee screwed up with denying Kansas and Pitt #1 seeds. Texas is barely a legitimate #2 seed, losing to unrated Texas Tech in a tournament. If you can't pull the trigger on a little team in a tourney you sure as hell don't belong in a sweet spot in the big show. How hard do you really think it will be for Kansas and Pitt to pound their way to the Final Four? Go Panthers. Thanks much. Matt Rennie: I agree more on the KU front. I'm just not sold on Pitt, mostly because of the Panthers' free-throw struggles. Howland is great coach, rumored to be in the running for the UCLA vacancy. But so often, NCAA games come down to free throws.
Worcester, Mass.: Do you see Holy Cross squeaking out a 1st round victory over an inexperienced Marquette team? HC has gone in as a 15 or a 16 seed recently and consistently given the top teams in the tourney a serious run for their money. I think they can pull it off against an (I think) overrated Marquette. Your thoughts on HC and other potential Cinderellas? Matt Rennie: The one thing Holy Cross has that other smaller conference teams often don't is size. Crusaders also have tournament experience, after scaring Kansas and Kentucky the past two first rounds. I think Marquette is legit, but it better come more prepared than it was against UAB in first round of the conference tournament.
Olney, Md.: For some of the lower seeds, such as Wagner for example, do they really expect to make some noise in the tournament or is getting to the tourney almost like Maryland going to the final four. I am a Maryland fan, do you think we can get past the sweet 16? Thanks for your time. Matt Rennie: For the Nos. 15 and 16 seeds, I'm sure playing on a national stage is reward in itself. That said, I don't think any athlete is really "just happy to be there." Everyone entertains dreams of shocking the world. And the tournament has had enough such stories, that there's a precedent.
As for the Terps, I really have no idea. Two weeks ago, I would have said they were sure thing for the Sweet 16 and perhaps a darkhorse for the Final Four. But they have looked listless and disjointed in their last two games. Their draw is probably the most favorable of the No. 6 seeds, but both UNC-Wilmington and Xavier (which should beat Troy State) will bounce the Terps if they play anything like they did against UNC or UVa.
Detroit, Mich.: Hey, pal, while I disagree with almost everything you have said so far, how many games to do think Dayton will win?
Matt Rennie: If this is the Dayton fan I think it is, I'm not surprised you don't agree. Regardless, the Flyers can easily make it to the round of 16. Tulsa is always tough in March, but if Dayton is prepared for the style of the winner of Wisconsin-Weber State (the first one to 38 points might win that one), then the Flyers could have a date with Kentucky. The road likely would end there.
Omaha, Neb.: Has the NCAA officially announced that the games will be played on Thursday even if we go to war? Matt Rennie: The tournament will go on as scheduled, barring something unforeseen domestically. I think that's the right move. So long as the safety of the participants and spectators is not in jeopardy, play the games. it's a little arrogant (as if somehow basketball would detract attention from the war) or insulting (as if Americans can't process the varying importance of basketball in relation to war) to do otherwise.
The fact is, the importance of sports don't change in times such as these; the circumstances around them do. Is basketball more important than human lives? Of course not.
Fairfax, Va.: Hi Matt.
Why are so many picking the Dayton-Tulsa game to be a possible upset? Dayton's a 4 seed, Tulsa a 13. Is it the weakness of the WAC that forced the low seed on Tulsa? Thanks Matt Rennie: Well, in part because people might not be as familiar with Dayton (an A-10 team that usually gets billed under Xavier, St. Joe's and Temple in other years) and in part because people remember Tulsa teams making Cinderella runs in the past. I don't see it this year. I think the A-10 was very legit this season.
Harrisburg, Pa.: My father taught at Western Kentucky and I attended the University of Pennsylvania. OK, so neither is likely going to win the tournament. Yet, both have surprised teams before. What are the chances of these teams lasting deep into the tournament? Matt Rennie: Is this weekend deep enough for you? I can see Penn upsetting an Okie State team that limped to the finish, but getting past Syracuse? I doubt it. Western Kentucky is going to have its hands full with an Illinois team that might be the Big Ten's best hope to salvage some pride this season. But if the Hilltoppers can pull it off, either Notre Dame or Wisconsin-Milwaukee is beatable.
Greenbelt, Md.: Hi-- I love the tournament and I don't want to rain on the parade, but does the possibility of point shaving ever enter your mind as you watch the tournament games? I ask this since CBS, the NCAA, and the schools get millions from the tournament, while the players get the glory -- but no money. The players appear to me as possible candidates for a gambler to manipulate with some money. As we recently saw with the case of the Michigan Fab Five of the early 1990s, college players have taken money in the past. The question is this -- do you think any player would take money to shave points in a tournament game? Matt Rennie: It's a prime concern for college administrators. All "amateur" sports are targets for point-shaving for the reasons you mention, and with the proliferation of on-line gambling sites, the challenge of insulating college athletes from such influences becomes that much greater.
This is a HUGE deal because it goes directly to the integrity of the games. Without that integrity, it all becomes jai-alai.
Washington, D.C. (Spokane transplant): Gonzaga seems to do better when they're not expected to do anything. Hence their first-round loss to Wyoming last year. Any chance they could make another surprise run this year? Matt Rennie: I think the Gonzaga-Cincinnati game is one of the most intriguing of the first round. Of the two, Gonzaga probably has a better chance to beat Arizona in the second round, but frankly, I think 'Zona will be playing next weekend and the other two will be watching.
Alexandria, Va.: Is it just me, or does the quality of play in the NCAA (Div. 1) continue to drop every year? I thought it would level off as it became commonplace to jump to the draft early, but it's still getting worse. Matt Rennie: I thought Michael Wilbon addressed this issue rather deftly in his Sunday column. The problem at the top level of college basketball is the lack of cohesion that results when the top players hang around college at the most two years, and often just one or not at all. Think about Maryland if Chris Wilcox had come back -- all of a sudden, the Terps' inside problems are not so troubling. Think about Duke with J.J. Redick as a sixth or seventh man rather than as a second-leading scorer? All of a sudden, it's not a down year in the ACC.
Dearborn, Mich.: Are you able to explain to me why the "64 Team" Tournament went to a "65 team" tournament with the play-in game appearing last year and this year? No one I ask seems to know. Love your work. Matt Rennie: The NCAA added an extra automatic berth three years ago (I believe to the Horizon League but don't quote me), and didn't want to give up an at-large bid to make it happen. hence, the play-in game. I think it's ridiculous, but it will get worse before it gets better. Coaches annually moan that there should be more at-large bids. I think it's unfair to make schools like Texas Southern and UNC-Ashville play this extra game for the right to lose by 30 to a top seed. But like I said, in five years, don't be surprised to see four play-in games for all the top seeds.
Capitol Hill, Washington, D.C.: Louisville. They have the best coach in the NCAA and seem to have regained that spark they had in the first half of the season. What do you think of their chances? Matt Rennie: This is certainly another story that has changed in the last two weeks. After Louisville lost at home to Marquette in lat February, it was easy to write them off. Now, the Cardinals are on a roll and have a favorable draw (though they'd likely have to get past Oklahoma in the round of 16 and I think Hollis Price is one of those players who could take ownership of a tournament).
Chantilly, Va.: Matt: any thoughts on the Florida Gators? Like they say, it's tough to beat a team three times in one year, so I would love to see them face Kentucky in the finals. The problem is there are probably ten teams on their side of the bracket with legitimate hopes of making the final game. Matt Rennie: The Gators are certainly balanced and have traveled a tough road to get here. The question I have with them I have with a lot of teams in this tournament: Down one with 10 seconds left, who wins the game for them? The answer would seem to be Matt Bonner, who's a senior and that helps but ...
Helena, Mont.: When asked about the committee's oversight in terms of having the #1 and #2 teams (UK and Arizona) meeting in the semifinals instead of the finals, Chairman Livengood said something to the effect that the committee didn't do any "predicting." Well, isn't that exactly what seedings are? Of course, they're predicting! Big screwup, don't you think? Matt Rennie: You are completely right. That was an absurd response. The whole point is looking ahead and trying to create the best matchups. Otherwise, pick the teams out of a hat. I think the fact is that this committee had their hands so full picking the field they didn't have enough time to assess seeds and details (see, BYU fiasco).
Wake Forest Fan: Can they go deep this year? Josh Howard is the real deal but I think that Syracuse might get them in the Sweet 16 -- and I'm a Wake Forest grad. Tell me I am wrong. Matt Rennie: A Wake-Syracuse game would be one of the great Sweet 16 matchups, if it happens. Howard is one of those transcendent players, like Hollis Price, who can carry a team that's otherwise having a bad day. that said, Carmelo Anthony, although a freshman, might be one, too. That would be fun to watch.
Alexandria, Va.: Hi Matt -- I know people may groan at this, but it seems that Duke got shafted. A team, for instance, like Florida who lost three in a row to end the year (including the first round of the SEC toury) gets a #2 seed, a virtual home game, and the weakest bracket, while Duke who won their tourney gets shipped out west as a #3 to Salt Lake (even with the pod system), has the toughest bracket, and gets a potential second round match-up with Creighton. Seems unfair. Matt Rennie: I'm not sure Duke deserved better than a No. 3, but there's no question they're in the toughest region. Again, this might be a case of carelessness by the selection committee.
Eliminate the bubble: Why don't they have 4 play-in games, 1 per region? Matt Rennie: As I said, I can see that coming, but why reduce teams like Wagner and Vermont to sideshows just so Seton Hall or some such big conference sixth-place team get a 10 seed. The reason people love the tournament, I think, is that IUPUI and Kentucky will start 0-0, each six wins from a title.
Silver Spring, Md.: Matt, what do you think of the NCAA's decision to have the teams play as scheduled, despite the likelihood of our attacking Iraq in the next few hours or days? Thanks for your time. Matt Rennie: I think I addressed this earlier, but again, I think this is appropriate. The importance of sports doesn't change in times such as these, perhaps the awareness of sports' importance changes. Sports ARE important in our society -- for competitors and for fans. They are not as important a human lives, but that was true last year and the year before and the year before.
Sports are not as importance as the lives of people in Iraq and they're not as important as lives of the people going hungry in our city.
They are more important than the pigeons outside your Metro stop, unless you're deathly afraid of birds.
Alexandria, Va.: Wait a minute! Are you telling me that jai-lai is rigged? Matt Rennie: sorry to burst your bubble
Go Blue! (via Oakland, Calif.): While the Michigan team could not play in this year's tournament, would they have qualified, in your opinion, if eligible? Matt Rennie: I'm a Michigan alum, which perhaps you know. The job Tommy Amaker did this season was remarkable. the first-round big ten exit -- and regular season finish -- would have hurt the Wolverines, had they been eligible.
Silver Spring, Md.: Matt, if you had to pick one dark horse to advance to the Sweet 16, who would it be? Matt Rennie: Is a No. 5 seed a dark horse? U-Conn. could go to the Final Four from that seed. (but like I said, I'm notoriously wrong).
Matt Rennie: I've got to wrap this up, folks. Thanks for stopping by. Enjoy the tournament.
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