| The Weather Warriors
With Bob Ryan
NBC4 Chief Meteorologist
Monday, Feb. 3, 2003; 2 p.m. ET In the past year, the Washington, D.C. area has had dealt with drought and a "real winter" -- complete with regular snowfall -- for the first time in several seasons. No question, weather affects how we live, and when the weather snags traffic, confines Washingtonians to their homes or hits us by surprise, the first people to be blamed are the meteorologists -- who use a combination of art, science and common sense to make their best predictions for the day-to-day weather. Washington's big four weather forecasters -- Doug Hill, Bob Ryan, Topper Shutt and Sue Palka -- are profiled in this Sunday's TV Week. Bob Ryan, chief meteorologist at Washington, D.C.'s NBC4, was online Monday, Feb. 3 at 2 p.m. ET, to talk about high-wire craft of predicting the weather. Ryan has been the chief meteorologist at NBC4 since 1980. He began his career in the atmospheric sciences as an associate researcher in the Physics Section with Arthur D. Little Inc. in Cambridge, Mass., where he conducted research in cloud physics. He holds a BS degree in Physics and M.S. in Atmospheric Science from the University at Albany. While at ADL Ryan began to work part time as a broadcast meteorologist in Boston. Eventually his broadcast career became full time and his research career part time. He became the principal meteorologist with Channel 5, WCVB-TV in Boston, and the first meteorologist to regularly appear on the "Today Show" from 1978-1980. The transcript follows. Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Bowie, Md.: I read in the TV guide that people watch the TV news for the weather. However, with all due respect to you and your competitors at the other channels, when the weather comes on, I go away. All I want to see is the little week long graphic you put up during your broadcast that concisely shows the forecast for the next few days. If that was displayed every time you all went to commercial, I'd have everything I need to know. Anything else is fluff. Get rid of it all, and there's is more time for real news. Bob Ryan: Certainly some people want just one graphic but I think most people also want a bit of information. You don't just read the newspaper for the headlines do you?
Foggy Bottom, Washington, D.C.: I saw on a 15 day forecast that there is a chance of snow on Valentine's Day. What are your predictions Bob? Bob Ryan: That is much too far away for any day to day forecast. We are still in a general cold pattern so snow lovers still have a few more chances this winter
Reston, Va.: Having been a meteorologist in D.C. for a good long time now, do you think expectations by the public for accurate forecasting have grown commensurate with the perception that better technologies have made weather forecasting easier or more precise? Bob Ryan: I think peoples expectations will always be a bit ahead of our abilities. We can now often give a pretty good forecast/outlook for the coming 7 days. That was impossible 20-30 years ago. Now people would like a detailed forecast for the next 2 weeks. We are ever more accurate so I know folks get very disappointed and upset when we are wrong.
Baltimore, Md.: Does the D.C. region have any unusual weather traps that catch visitors off guard (cold, hot, wet, humid?) Bob Ryan: The mix of the Bay, ocean, mountains to the west and our being near the center of many storm tracks does make the area very tricky. . .but an exciting professional challenge
Queenstown, Md.: Here's something that always confuses me. When you say "Westerly Winds," does that mean that the wind is blowing FROM the West, or TOWARDS the West? Thanks! Bob Ryan: It's FROM the west
Hyattsville, Md.: I watch the weather for the weather but also I watch your weather segments, Bob, to find out other things such as planetary/astronomy sightings. Do you have a Web site you use for those tidbits? I must say, the weather here is more exciting than it was in San Diego where the big question was "will it be 68 or 72 tomorrow?" Thanks for all your helpful weather information! Bob Ryan: We do feature sights in the evening and night sky regularly. The Post does have a regular column on sights in the morning and evening sky and "Sky and Telescope" magazine has a great homepage/site
Arlington, Va.: Just wanted to thank you for how reliable you've been over the years. When is the first beach and boating forecast? Thanks, Bob. Bob Ryan: Thanks. . .we try hard. First will be a week or two before the Memorial Day weekend
Rochester, N.Y.: We'll be blunt. The Today Show should scrap the weather segment with Al Roker and give the time to local. As for real meteorology, will NEXRAD imagery, in your opinion, ever be available in near real-time for broadcast presentation as opposed to either six to 15 minute delay? Bob Ryan: We do a local weathercast every time following Al. NEXRAD is a complete volume sky of the sky/storm. We receive each scan or slice in near real time but it does take about 6 minutes to scan through all elevations. . .15 steps I think. It is not true that the data is old or delayed. We get the data as soon as each "slice" is complete. The entire volume scan of the storm gives much more information than 1 slice. The difference between an MRI and one X-Ray
Reston, Va.: Historically speaking, is it perception or reality that many summers in the last 10 years have been hotter and much dryer than historical averages? If so, can any kind of pattern be succinctly tied to why, or is any expectation still mostly in the realm of speculation? Bob Ryan: The summers are certainly getting hotter in the cities because of the urban "heat island". The nights are warmer by several degrees compared to 50 years ago. The precipitation really is not much different. Most scientists now think that some of the warming in our average temperature may be attributable to global warming.
washingtonpost.com: After Bob's chat, stay tuned to for a live discussion with WUSA9's Topper Shutt at 3 p.m. ET.
Arlington, Va.: Has anyone ever done a study to determine how often your forecasts are correct? Is there any way to eliminate the hype and hysteria that accompanies every snow flake in this area? Do we really need total "team coverage" and Pat Collins with his yard stick outside to tell us it's snowing? We can look out the window and see that it's snowing. Bob Ryan: Whenever we do get a "real" snowstorm everyone tuns on the TV to find out how long it will last and how much snow we will get. We certainly don't try and "hype" the storm but folks do tune in to get the information. I've decided to tell folks what I will be doing before the storm (for instance that I will not be rushing to the store) to give then some (I hope) reasonable information to make a better decision and not get caught up in the hysteria
El Nino: Bob, Love your weather forecasting and personality. I thought we were having a mild El Nino this year meaning wet and warm winter. Well, it been wet but not warm. Why? Bob Ryan: The southern branch of the Jet Stream has been rather weak since mid-December and the cold pattern is now locked in. The west US has been unusually, near record, warm this winter. It is certainly much colder than I thought this winter would be.
Springfield, Va.: As a lifelong native of the area, the recurring drought conditions that we've experienced over the last 6-7 years strike me as being more numerous and more severe than our weather of previous decades. Is this a signal that the climate of this area is in a state of fundamental change and that we should expect such conditions to become normal in the future, or is this a temporary phenomenon? Bob Ryan: The drought pattern we had is certainly over now. Some do feel that these patterns may become more frequent or we may be seeing more "weather extremes" but there is not any good evidence of this yet.
Annandale, Va.: What would you tell a young person who is interested in becoming a meteorologist? How can they prepare. Bob Ryan: Take all the math and science you can in high school. There is an excellent carer and college information at the AMS site.
http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS/
Washington, D.C.: Why do you think people become so crazy when it snows around here? I have lived here my whole life and I am completely baffled by these people. Bob Ryan: It does become a bit or rumor and mass hysteria. Once when we were forecasting a "modest" snow of 4 inches someone said, "I heard we were going to get a foot of snow". I asked where they heard that. . .I think some folks enjoy having fun with their friends who may be afraid of snow and the next think everyone hears this is going to be a major storm and they rush to the store
Arlington, Va.: Looking at the biographical material on the TV weather people in the Post's TV section, it looks like you are the only one with a degree in meteorology. Do you think that makes a difference in the way you approach your job? Bob Ryan: I never set out to be a TV meteorologist. I think my background and "continuing education" (the science has really progressed since I was in college) help give me helpful information and perspective that I try and share with our viewers
Virginia: How is it different 10 years before and now? Bob Ryan: We have many new tools for forecasting and I think we are more accurate. . .of course I am a bit biased
Arlington, Va.: Okey-dokey, Bob: Can you give us weather junkies a hint, just a hint, of what the weather's going to be like this summer? Warm, dry, hot, cool, pleeeeze anything! Bob Ryan: El Nino years tend to not have a strong summer influence here. It does tend to minimize the number of hurricane forming. I would think though that we are not likely to see a repeat of this summer's drought pattern
Reston, Va.: I used to live in Utah, where two feet of snow was no big deal. I remember the letter you wrote to the editor of the Salt Lake Tribune a few years ago complaining that the long range (one week out)forecasts were bogus. Yet I see you doing one week forecasts. On another topic, did you see the weather radar shot of the Columbia debris trail? Bob Ryan: Don't think it was me who wrote to the SLT. We do give a 7 day forecast but only specific temps for 4 days and then general for days 5,6 and 7 because of the greater uncertainty with time. Day 7 is at the limit of day to day skill. We will show some images from weather radars of the debris trail
Somewhere, USA: Is Wendy Rieger married? Bob Ryan: Not on this chat session
Springfield, Va.: I notice the different TV networks use different names for Doppler radar. Is there one doppler radar, or is there really different radar information going to each network? Bob Ryan: We use the radar data coming from the NWS NEXRAD site at Sterling. It provides complete volume scans of the atmosphere. Other stations also use this data and some have their own radars which make a single "slice" of the atmosphere.
15th and L, Washington, D.C.: How does forecasting this region compare to areas under the influence of the Great Lakes? Is it easier to forecast the weather here without having such a looming variable such as Lake Erie? Bob Ryan: Certainly forecasting the "Lake Effect" snows are very difficult, but new small scale atmospheric "models" have greatly helped forecasting around the Great Lakes. Snow lovers should move to Oswego, NY
Fairfax, Va.: Bob. Do you feel that there may be too much reliance on computer models in forecasting? I have noticed, especially in this area, that cool-season temperatures are often forecast too warm because the models will show a warm front out in front of a low to our west across central Pennsylvania (putting us in the warm sector) when in reality the surface front drops down south of us east of the mountains (in an "S"-shaped pattern) due to low-level cold air-damming. Apparently the computers cannot pick up this micro-effect east of the ridges....if you go up only 2000 ft., the conditions look exactly like the models show, but in the low levels east of the ridges, this often happens -- especially with a cold high over New England. Bob Ryan: We have to be careful we don't become "model readers" rather than meteorologists and forecasters. I think 20+ years experience here is of help but there are still very difficult situations such as you describe especially during the transition seasons of mid-Spring and Fall.
Annandale, Va.: I'm interested in having a weather station in my yard. How do I go about doing this and what is the time committment involved? Bob Ryan: I would do a search for instrument companies. Davis Instruments makes fine instruments. Much of the data now can be stored and accessed on your home computer.
Washington, D.C.: Has Channel 4 ever had to replace the news desk after repeated tapping by your index finger causing severe structural damage? Bob Ryan: No. . .we just fill in the hole
Oakton, Va.: I have noticed not necessarily a warming trend in the climate but more of a reshifting of the seasons. Spring does not start till April, Summer until July, fall until October, and winter until January (of course, December this winter was a notable exception). For years now, March has been cold, June, mild, September an extension of August (sauna bath), and December somewhat variable. Any comments? Bob Ryan: I think we always tend to notice the extremes and the recent events which seem out of the ordinary. There really isn't any evidence for a "shifting of the seasons" but the metro area is a bit warmer now than 50 years ago
Snow days: Bob, I grew up in the area and recall having way more snow than what we used to have. Shoot, we even went to school on a school bus, while the roads were still covered in snow (I'm 31, so it's not been that long ago). Are we really getting less snow than what we used? Bob Ryan: The long term pattern (50-100 years) is for decreasing snowfall. I showed a yearly graph in this year's Almanac where the annual snowfall 100 years from now might be only a few inches. . .stay tuned
Arlington, Va.: Please explain an occluded front to me. We learned about them in physical geography and i can't remember what they were. Rather hear a pro than "look it up." Thanks Bob Ryan: Where the warm front overtakes the cold front and the upper air is moist and the sky generally cloudy but there may be only light precipitation
Adams Morgan, Washington, D.C.: Milk, I get. Bread, I get (I lived in the city during the 96-fiasco). But toilet paper? Where does that come from? Bob Ryan: I think it's as much a joke. . .all the necessities
washingtonpost.com: Join Topper Shutt live next at 3 p.m. ET.
Springfield, Va.: What is desert dust? Bob Ryan: There are satellite images and ground observations of dust from the Saraha being carried aloft to the western hemisphere and over the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe this is the reference
Inside or Out?: Bob, While I'll try to watch your forecast tonight (it is sweeps month after all), just wanted to find out if I'm going to be able to run outside tomorrow morning at 5:30? Rain in August is okay, rain in February is not so okay. Thanks Bob Ryan: 5:30 should be fine. . .and mild. Rain probably by 7-10AM
Oakton, Va.: Do you often consult with your competitors -- Doug Hill, Sue Palka, and Topper Shutt -- to see if their outlook agrees with yours? Bob Ryan: No. . .never have. This is a pretty competitive business and I trust my own skills and judgement
Franconia, Va.: Relative to the concept of global warming, how much of this concept, in your opinion, is based on solid scientific data, versus how much of it is still speculative and/or driven by ideological agendas within the scientific community? Bob Ryan: The consensus (probably 90% of the scientists really doing research in the field) is that the warming is real and caused at least in part by man. As with any subject there are some who feel it is worse than thought and a few who still don't think the data supports a "warming is real" conclusion. We all should look at the data and also see who is doing the report. Is it really a scientist working in the field or someone who does have a political agenda.
Good Jokes: Heard any good weather jokes recently? Bob Ryan: Only the groundhog's
Fairfax, Va.: Why is it, with the infamous "Bermuda High" in the summer, we often get more oppressive temperatures and dew points here in the Piedmont and coastal Mid-Atlantic even than in the Deep South, with its higher sun angle?
Often the summer maps will show some of the worst "real-feel" temperatures right here in D.C. -- worse than New Orleans or even the deserts. Bob Ryan: All the east is in a summer pattern to get air that originated over the Gulf of Mexico. As the Gulf water heats up, the humidity over the Gulf increases. We also here get some of the air pollution from the west and southeast so our air is hazier and more polluted than the air for instance in Mobile. But the humidity is still about the same.
Bethesda, Md.: How does one get to be a News 4 weather watcher with a weather station in your yard? Can anyone apply? Bob Ryan: You can send us or me an e-mail and we'll sign you up. We don't give our watcher instruments though
Washington, D.C.: Do you ever get mad that Arch Campbell gets your chair and you have to stand at the end of the newscast? Bob Ryan: At my age I need to keep standing
Channel 4 Staff: Soes Wendy Reiger make you tea? Lloyd Grove always talks about her tea. Bob Ryan: She brings in herbal teas. . .we have to make our own
Herndon, Va.: Hello Mr. Ryan, As a transplanted New Englander, I was curious what region of the country you felt weather was more difficult to predict -- New England or Metro Boston/New England. Bob Ryan: We actually get a greater variety here I think. The biggest storm I was ever in is still the famous Blizzard of 1978 in New England
Vienna, Va.: Bob, Weather forecasting, especially in this area has been referred to as an art. Increasingly though, I have noticed that a lot of meteorologists are slaves to computer models. This results in lots of waffling and basically confuses the heck out of us. What is your take on the state of weather modeling and do you think a lot of the art of meteorology has been replaced by forecasters simply relying on what the computer tells them is going to happen. Bob Ryan: I did mention earlier that we have to be forecasters and not model readers. I also give viewers a sense of how confident I am in the forecast and how difficult (or easy) the forecast is. I certainly don't think of myself as a model reader. If I want to know "what the models say" I can go to the Internet. I don't think a meteorologist should use that term
McLean, Va.: Bob, Being an arm chair weather man (or a weather geek as my girlfriend calls me), I look at a myriad of weather sources such as the Gov't sites, the weather channel, accuweather and the areas broadcasters and others before I make up my mind to hit the store for bread and milk. Do you and your colleagues do the same before you make your forecasts? Also, I have a bet with a colleague that it will snow 12" this year. Am I going to have to pay up? Bob Ryan: The Net is a great source of information and I get most of my basic data from it now. Just don't show up here and try and take my job
Bowie, Md.: As a snow-lover, I'm frequently disappointed in many potential snowstorms because the rain/snow line almost always seems to be in the vicinity of I-95, which of course puts me on the rain (east/south) side of the line. Why does the rain/snow line so often stay around I-95? What is so special about that location that it's so frequently the dividing line between rain and snow? Why doesn't it set up more frequently to the east and south of Bowie, like down in Charles or Calvert Co, or along the Bay, for instance? Bob Ryan: The influence of the Gulf Stream, the mountains and our latitude all have an influence and tend to make this area the snow/rain dividing line more often than not
Fairfax, Va.: Hi Bob! Thanks for so many great years forecasting weather. I don't want to make you feel old, but I've been watching you since was a very little kid -- we called you "Bob No Accumulation Ryan" since you always told us to do our homework when everyone else was predicting a blizzard. Unfortunately, for us, you were generally right when you said that. One staple for me every year was your Almanac. I would carry that around with me telling everyone what the highs and lows would be on any given day of the year. Besides the obvious personality differences, how does a forecaster make the forecast unique? Some would argue that since you all get the same data from the NWS, your forecasts should be similar. That, coupled with the fact that one day your local sports anchor could switch to another market doing -- weather? I guess my question is, when does a weather personality become a Meteorologist? Bob Ryan: The general guideline is that a "meteorologist" has a degree in meteorology. Forecasting is a bit like medicine. We do have the same data/models just as several doctors may have the same patient and tests but we use a combination of education, knowledge and experience and may arrive at different conclusions
Weather as news: Bob
First of all I remember you giving a great presentation to my second-grade class way, way back in 1978. I also remember that radical tweed sport coat you wore (orange and yellow and and other fascinating colors arranged in plaid) -- why not wear it one more time, on the air? Anyway, I am sometimes a bit annoyed when news producers push and push a weather story into something it is not. Be truthful, has the news "sexied" up weather forecasts too much in your opinion? Is it absolutely necessary to invest in a ten-million dollar Super X Mega Double Doppler 9000, when, in the end, you can still only see a few days ahead with any certainty. OK Bob, thanks. Bob Ryan: We have great producers and we try and and push weather unless it is a big story or people are interested in the lates (for instance if NWS issues a "winter storm warning") The Doppler is a great tool for short term and is essential during severe weather. . .the plaid jacket may come back one day
Vienna, Va.: Just wanted to say that I have been a fan for many years and rely on you more than anyone else! Bob Ryan: thanks
Silver Spring, Md.: Bob, to what extent does your management direct you to hype a possible upcoming snow storm? Have you ever skewed your reports toward "button down the hatches" rather than "some snow on the way?" Bob Ryan: No one pressures me one way or the other. . . I try and be as objective as possible but also realize that whenever there is a winter storm possible in the next day or tow,folks want to know what is happening
Vienna, Va.: Bob. For difficult winter storm forecasts such as the rain-snow line, QPF, thickness lines, etc. (seems like the 540 thickness line is almost always through the local area) -- do you just consult with your own staff at Channel 4 or do you get on the horn with Doug Hill, Sue Palka and Topper Shutt to get a consensus of opinions? We all know the difficulties of winter forecasts here, with the proximity of the mountains and valleys, the bay/ocean, cold air damming east of the ridges, low centers forming off the coast where you cannot detect pressure falls easily, etc.
While the four local news station compete with one another for ratings, of course, it seems to me it would serve the greater public good and maybe get more accurate forecasts if all of the local meteorologists, especially you and Doug (perhaps the two most experienced ones) all looked at the data together and came up with a consensus. Bob Ryan: We have a 4PM news so we have to have our forecast out before anyone else. I have Veronica here and Gene Brodwater our meteorologist/producer and we work together. We feel we have the best forecast of course. Sometimes if there are different forecasts, you get an idea of the uncertainty. . .if all channels agree, that is useful information also. I don't think I would ever want to be part of a "consensus"
Oakton, Va.: Bob. I have a question: I understand the principles of cold air damming east of the ridges (this, of course, often prevents warm air and a southerly flow aloft from reaching the ground here in the local area). Often you can detect this by an "S" shaped surface front that winds north through Western Pennsylvania/West Virginia, then abruptly drops down along the Allegheny Front to central or southern Virginia (or sometimes further south), then shoots back north along the coast east of our area. My question is: If the coastal portion of this front here is the so-called "Gulf Stream front", then why does it sometimes extend significantly inland? Example: Often we are in the low 30's here in D.C with sleet/freezing rain (cold air damming, NE wind), yet Salisbury (30 miles inland), Cambridge, and even Patuxent River will be in the 50's/60's with a SW wind. Why does the front not stay along the immediate coast with the warm water? Bob Ryan: The cold air is much deeper here and the warm air and southerly winds come in much easier near the coast and ocean where the relatively warm ocean waters and lack of any physical barrier really prevent "damming."
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