| 'Avoiding Armageddon'
With Chris Guarino and Frank Sesno
Executive Producers
Friday, April 11, 2003; 1 p.m. ET The new documentary, "Avoiding Armageddon" examines the threat of terrorism compounded by WMD -- nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Producers traveled to some of the most dangerous places in the world -- such as Iraq, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Kashmir and throughout the Middle East -- to gather material for the film. The series is hosted by journalist Walter Cronkite, and each episode concludes with a discussion on the provocative issues raised, moderated by veteran journalist Frank Sesno. Series executive producers Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino were online Friday, April 11 at 1 p.m. ET, to discuss the upcoming series and the biological and chemical weapons. Sesno is an Emmy Award-winning journalist and producer with more than 25 years experience chronicling world events. Currently he is an independent producer, as well as professor of Public Policy and Communication at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. Prior to joining GMU, Sesno was senior vice president and Washington bureau chief of CNN. Guarino is an award-winning news and documentary producer with more than 20 years experience in producing both breaking news and long-form news programming. While at CNN Guarino served as executive producer of the network's political unit, and was also responsible for such signature series as "Inside Politics" and "Crossfire." "Avoiding Armageddon," the inaugural production from Ted Turner Documentaries, airs on PBS Monday-Thursday, April 14-17, 2003, 9:00 p.m. ET (check local listings). The transcript follows. Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
Manor Haven, N.Y.: Wouldn't it be more appropriate to label this "Surviving Armageddon?" It is going to happen. Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Frank: This is not inevitable and while human history is filled with examples of our ability to be destructive, it is also informed by timely and positive steps to avoid catastrophe. The Cuban Missile Crisis, the India-Pakistan nuclear showdown, the world steps to the brink of armageddon, but understanding what was at stake and with bold leadership able to step back.
Now the question becomes can we learn from our present circumstances and ensure that we, meaning humanity, steps back from the brink again.
Silver Spring, Md.: What do you hope viewers will take away from this series? What would we gain by having watched it -- and what will we miss out on if we don't? Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Chris: I think the viewers should take away the recognition that there are truly global threats that Americans need to pay attention to. In many respects there's a generation of Americans who did not recognize the dangerous times and the dangerous circumstances that we might face as Americans or just as human beings. But recognizing them doesn't mean we have to live as scared people, so I think Avoiding Armageddon, I hope will raise the awareness of what we live in in the 21st Century.
Frank: Television's especially good as we have seen, at covering events. Much more unusual for it to treat with context and complexity the most challenging issues that confront us. This series of documentaries and discussions attempts to tackle some of the most important challenges and choices that confront the planet and citizens are called upon to act. In order to act they first need to be informed and so on another level this program seeks to inform. It also seeks to lay out some of the courses of action, policies, and debates that propose to address these challenges. Citizens, voters, will need to decide how they want their representatives to vote, how their dollars are spent, how they want their country and world to behave. We'll have a better concept after having watched these programs.
College Park, Md.: So how do we avoid Armageddon when the current administration and cronies are part of a bizarre right-wing Christian cult committed to bringing it about -- either supernatural or manmade? These "dispensationalists" count among their numbers Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell, Ralph Reed, Gary Bauer, Dick Armey, Tom DeLay, John Ashcroft, and others involved in U.S. foreign policy decisions. More info: Antichrist politics (Salon.com) Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Frank: Without commenting on the politics or personalities that the questioner evokes, citizens have an opportunity to make themselves heard. Citizens have an opportunity to organize, to hold their elected reps accountable. And, as I said before, being informed is a first step. I personally do not subscribe to the school of thought that suggests history is somehow pre-ordained.
Atlanta, Ga.: Are electronic weapons included as weapons of mass destruction? Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Frank: I'm assuming you are making reference to cyber-terrorism or cyber-warfare. This is an area that is only now being explored and understood and is a very, very serious though emerging discussion. It's likely that we will spend some time on this in the panel discussions over the course of the week.
Coral Springs, Fla.: Underdevelopment, with its extreme poverty, creates injustice and develops fanatics. The only way we can live in a safe world is by helping the third world. From your many conversations, which of our leaders, in your opinion, really deeply believes in international aid? Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Chris: As we explore in the program on our fourth episode we take a look at how the world is inter-connected and the significance that a nation in peril on the other side of the globe could actually have an impact on our society here at home. We refer to it as failed-states as do many of the individuals in our programs and it's places like Afghanistan where a nation that is struggling can become ripe for terrorism. Where not just America, but all the civilized world needs to be more aware of what's going on and try to stop it before it starts.
Frank: As you will see in the programs, particularly part 4, where as Chris mentioned, we engage this topic, there is recognition the world is being tested. Afghanistan and now Iraq are proving grounds. UN Sec. General Kofi Annan says passionately that the world not walk away as it has in the past, that the world's attention span is short, that the price of failure is simply too high. Sec. of State Colin Powell and CIA Director George Tenet both connect continued and sustained involvement with success. They cite issues ranging from nation-building to the campaign against AIDS in Africa and elsewhere around the world, which can now be seen in the context of a threat to national and international security.
Metuchen, N.J.: Will the issue of civil liberties in the U.S. be discussed? How about the vulnerability of our nuclear plants? Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Chris: The context of this series and the post-9/11 world is a heavy focus throughout all four nights. The concerns about nuclear power plants, nuclear materials and nuclear weapons will be most specifically touched on in the second night program. The issue of civil liberties in the context of combatting terrorism will be addressed in the third night of the series where we talk about the new face of terror and then plan to follow that program up with a comprehensive interview with the Sec. General of INTERPOL, Ronald Noble.
Centreville, Va.: Does the U.S. have a WMD program? Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Chris: Sure. As we explore extensively in the first two nights of our broadcast, there are stockpiles of chemical weapons that are stored throughout our country and there are still many nuclear weapons at the ready and on alert throughout the U.S. You will see and learn about efforts being made to reduce not only the stockpiles, but also turn some of the nuclear weapons from other nations, particularly Russia and some other former Soviet states, into nuclear power for American cities.
There are both government and private enterprise endeavors to reduce the stockpiles of all WMDs, particularly between the former Soviet Union and the U.S. that continue as we speak.
McLean, Va.: Don't we need to emphasize the importance of strengthening diplomatic ties with these countries? The industrial world must recognize how terrorism has seriously impacted and reduced our freedoms. While a strong military is critical for the U.S., our goal shouldn't be to continue finding larger and better weapons, but to diminish the alienation between countries. Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Chris: In the documentary portion of our programs, we don't take a position on diplomacy vs. arms build-up and military strength, but rather lay out for viewers where our world stands right now with respect to weapons of mass destruction. There are tangible things that are being done around the globe, both diplomatically and privately to address the issue of WMDs and diplomacy is a very big part of that. I think as you probably have seen over the last six months or so, the situation with N. Korea has been handled primarily through diplomatic means and we plan to discuss in our post-documentary segments the importance of handling each individual circumstance and what diplomacy means to many of those situations.
Arlington, Va.: It would seem as if the issue of WMD has all but fallen off the radar in the current war in Iraq, at least for the Bush administration. We have the White House saying that Saddam Hussein's "regime has ended," which indicates a perceived level of success and closure. But what of all the WMD evidence the Bush administration claimed to have before the war began? You know, all the stuff Sec. Powell presented to the UN. Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Frank: That's a good question. One of the reasons we're following the documentaries up with discussion is to explore just such issues. The administration argued before the world that Iraq had WMD. Where are they? How extensive was the program? These are still questions that are unanswered.
One of the most fascinating aspects of this moment in time is this: What impact does the "preemptive war" have on other states that are alleged to have a WMD program? N. Korea, Syria, Iran, these are some of the questions that we will examine in the discussion segments following the documentary.
New York, N.Y.: This week, I heard some commentary about a recent Pentagon War Games exercise around a North Korea "first-strike" scenario (at Japan, Hawaii or Alaska) and that the outcome of the exercise was too much to even contemplate. The PBS Frontline program last night quoted someone as saying this will all come to a head in "months, not years." Your comments about "most likely" and "least likely" scenarios would be appreciated. Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Frank: It's very difficult for us to predict "most" and "least" likely scenarios. I would argue that we have before us now the "greatest spectrum of uncertainty" that we've experienced in many years. We simply do not know how regimes, some of which are exceptionally insular and isolated, will react to this demonstration of U.S. firepower. Will they find it provocative and accelerate their weapons programs? Or will they conclude that they must negotiate and seek a lower threat level? We don't know.
Chris: Following on Frank's reference to "spectrum of uncertainty," with many of these weapons, particularly chemical and biological. Availability does not translate to capability because a terrorist or a rogue nation may have access to WMD does not necessarily mean they can use those weapons in a manner that they hope they can, so developing scenarios as to how bad a particular situation might be is tough to determine given all the variables and uncertainties.
Chevy Chase, Md.: Do you think biological weapons are more dangerous than nuclear weapons? We're just getting a taste right now with SARS, how out-of-control diseases can become and impossible to stop. Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Frank: There are a number of experts who argue that as horrible as it is to contemplate, a genuine bioweapon used in a massive WMD attack would be a worst case scenario because it would so undermine society and could have such far reaching consequences geographically.
Edison, N.J.: Will there be any historical information as to government policies that may have (in the past) contributed to the acts of terror around the world? It seems to me that terrorism is a last resort for people that feel they have no other options -- and I'd hate to see U.S. soldiers acting like the Israeli soldiers, some of which we're starting to see with the people getting killed at checkpoints. Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Frank: We trace historical developments in all cases to give this some context. Though the Soviet bio-weapons program, which was mirrored by a program in the U.S. is examined and we ask the question, what did we learn from the experience, how did it make the world safer or more dangerous, what are the implications for terrorism. We examine the history of terrorism and how it has grown in scope and scale in the latter half of the 20th century. This is not conspiracy theory documentary and it is not our objective to paint with a broad brush or to make accusations that can not be substantiated.
Fairfax, Va.: Why hasn't Saddam Hussein used chemical or biological weapons? Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Frank: The questioner is asking the same question that nearly everyone is asking, including the senior policy makers in D.C. and around the world. We have no idea where Saddam Hussein is. One of the key challenges of the administration is to, in the end, account for their allegations that precipitated this war and we're not there yet. It's not over and we just don't know. The world will be watching this very closely.
Baltimore, Md.: Are the countries named as members of the "axis of evil" the only ones where we should be concerned about development of WMD? If not too long, could you give a list of WMD "hot spots," so to speak? Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Chris: The pbs.org Web site for the series, in both factual and graphic detail lays out all the nations that are suspected or have acknowledged development of WMD.
Frank: No. President Bush's reference to the Axis of Evil encompassed Iraq, Iran and N. Korea. But one of the most dangerous flash points on the planet is the Indian sub-continent. India and Pakistan are bitter enemies with separatist movements and disputed territory between them and they both have a nuclear arsenal. Nuclear exchange on the Indian subcontinent would kill tens of millions of people. We explain that and other such flashpoints in these programs.
Falls Church, Va.: Okay, so whose coverage are you guys depending on during the current war in Iraq? CNN, BBC, Post, al Jazeera? I'd just like to get an idea of some well-balanced, rounded sources for my daily news diet. Frank Sesno and Chris Guarino: Frank: I would say all of the above. I record each night broadcast network newscasts, CNN and BBC. I read several newspapers and Web sites throughout the day. If you really want to know what's going on, you need to consume several sources of info, broadcast and print, U.S. and international.
Chris: It's very clear on the events preceding the war in Iraq and even the developments since the war began that there are different international perspectives and often Americans don't have exposure to how the rest of the world perceives something. But we will also explore in our program how the idea of terrorism from the U.S. point of view may be very different on the other side of the world and how there are people with grievances against the U.S. across the world that Americans either may not know about or don't recognize, and that's why it's important for Americans viewing the war and war coverage to seek out international perspectives.
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