On March 12 Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic, chief organizer of the October 2000 democratic revolution that ousted Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, was assassinated while entering government headquarters in Belgrade. The Serbian government immediately declared a state of emergency while the military began a massive search for the killers around the capital and halting traffic out of the city.

James O'Brien, former Clinton Balkans envoy, will be online Friday, March 14 at Noon ET, to discuss the assassination of Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic.

Submit your questions and comments before or during the discussion.

At the Department of State, O’Brien served as special presidential envoy for the Balkans and senior adviser to the Secretary. He participated in numerous high-profile international negotiations, including leading roles in the Dayton Agreement for peace in Bosnia, agreements to control weapons of mass destruction in the former Soviet Union, international trade in hazardous and recycling materials, and intellectual property rights for scientific cooperation with China. He currently is a principal advisor at The Albright Group, LLC.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

James O'Brien: Thanks for joining this online discussion. I'll jump to answering questions. In those answers I may add a few general points beyond the specific question, when that seems appropriate.

Harrisburg, Pa.: How does this assassination affect the efforts towards building democracy? While we may not know for certain, does it seem to be the intent of the assassins to reverse that process? Are the people who hold political influence committed towards democracy, and how stable are pro-democracy advocates in regards to holding onto their positions?

James O'Brien: Zoran Djindjic's death hurts the process of building democracy in several ways. First, Serbia has lost a leader committed to democracy and integration into Europe. That's the long-term answer for Serbia and for the region. Second, he's left a political vacuum among the pro-European elements of the government. They will take time to sort themselves out. Third, this is a challenge from organized criminals to the government. The government will have to answer -- and that will be a difficult time.

Alexandria, Va.: Horrible news about this assasination. What are the chances, if any, that a successor will be a person of his willingness to do what's best for Serbia, and stand up to the goons and the organized crime threatening to destroy what's left of the country?

I'm an FSO who served in Belgrade (before your time). Yugoslavia was a beautiful country then.

James O'Brien: There are people with the strength and willingness needed to take on the job. They face two core challenges. The first is gathering political support from other leaders with their own aspirations. The second is to frame the issue facing Serbia: it is time to combat organized crime and the entrenched elements left over from Milosevic's kleptocracy. More on this in a second.

Cumberland, Md.: FreeB92 is reporting that the 5 Deputy Prime Ministers will rotate as acting Prime Minister at least thru May 25th. Don't you think that this over the long terms is recipe for disaster and instability and that scheduling new elections would be a better choice?

How soon do you think there will be new elections called?

James O'Brien: I think that this arrangement is a compromise, meant to allow the different political leaders to build a new coalition. This does suggest a period of uncertainty. It is possible, however, that the new leader could be both pro-European and electable. This would be a large and positive change in the Serbian political landscape. The distortions of the past year or two have come, in part, because Kostunica was electable but anti-European and cautious about reform to the point of opposition, while Djindjic was pro-European and reform but could not win a direct election. I'm not sure that new parliamentary elections will bring more stability until the leadership sorts itself out.

Cumberland, Md.: Do you think that General Pavkovic will be playing an increasing political role in the days and months ahead?

What role do your foresee the Army playing in the coming days?

James O'Brien: No for the General. I think that the Army will be apolitical, a tradition that it prized for many years.

Cumberland, Md.: Do you foresee a rise in power for nationalist elements within Serbia?

James O'Brien: In rhetoric, yes, there will be more nationalism. In reality, the situation will be less clear. The real issue is whether the governing structures are willing to confront the syndicates that hold Serbia back. Some of those syndicates will hide behind nationalism, and some political leaders will hide their unwillingness to act behind a smokescreen of national pride. The best leaders will realize that the solution lies at home, among Serbs and others living in Serbia, in confronting criminals.

Cumberland, Md.: Will the Kosovo Albanians cause trouble and increase border incursions into Presevo and other mischief making as a result of the assassination?

James O'Brien: No. A small group in southern Serbia has threatened more action in recent weeks. It may continue regardless of the assassination, not because of it. Politically, this would be a poor time for any group to announce that it intends to advance its agenda with violence. For Kosovar Albanians to be involved in anything like that would be extremely counter-productive to their own interests.

New York, NY: Reading about the Serbian Prime Minister's Assasination you get the feeling that Serbia is basically a country run by organized crime and military thugs and that democracy is just a shell. My questions is how real and strong is Democracy in Serbia and is what are the chances of a Democratic future for Serbia? Also Serbia is getting Western financial assistance for extraditing war crimes suspects to The Hague; what happens to this $$$ -- is it just ending up in the hands of ORGANIZED CRIME and corrupt politicians or is it helping real people?

James O'Brien: I'll take the questions one at a time, because they are very important. First, Serbia's transition was exceptionally difficult and should be seen as instructive as we think about nation-building around the world. Serbia is emerging from the collapse of a country, war, and socialism that degenerated into a kleptocracy. The democrats who won election in 2000 took charge of a place that had a shell of a government, and they have started to make it a real democracy. This assassination shows that their reforms were starting to bite the people who benefited from the crimes of the 1990s. But there are real lessons here: the risks of nation-building go on long after the United States and other countries turn to new issues, and this process takes years.

James O'Brien: The second question from New York concerned international money. US assistance is spent very carefully. The programs I helped design just after the transition focused on helping ordinary citizens and on building the governmental structures (for example, with new financial controls) so that they could reduce corruption. US assistance dollars are carefully spent in that regard, anywhere.

Gaithersburg, Md.: In your opinion, who benefits politically from the assassination, and how? Is there any likelihood that elements from the former government would regain power? Also has anyone claimed responsibility for the attack?

James O'Brien: There are two groups who might have had motives. First, the organized criminal groups implicated by the government. Outside of failed states, I do not know where organized crime has successfully beaten a government structure, at least not without substantial help from inside. This may be stupid on their part. Second, some of the entrenched elements in the old Milosevic security structures were reported to have been boasting that they had threatened Djindjic a few weeks ago. They are said to have been concerned about his cooperation with the International Tribunal in The Hague.

Cumberland, Md.: It was well known that Djindjic blocked Kostunica during the elections by causing his supporters to boycott the elections, do you believe that when new elections are held that Kostunica will become either President or Prime-Minister of Serbia?

James O'Brien: There is a chance that former President Kostunica may find himself, as in 2000, the one person who can unite what was the democratic opposition or at least, significant parts of it. We will know only when the other leaders spend time trying to identify a new leader from among those who supported the Djindjic government. Kostunica also faces some challenges of his own. He is not known as an effective hands-on politician, which the PM should be. He has alienated many who were willing to work with him in 2000.

Cumberland, Md.: Will the new leader of Serbia be inclined to take a less pro-European view than Djindjic since it can be implied that his assassination was the result of the enemies he had created due to his pro-European behaviour esp. with regards to the Hague Tribunal?

James O'Brien: This is the main question, I think. Democracy in Belgrade in 2000 was a huge victory for anyone who believed that Europe should be whole and free. Across the continent, the prospect of membership in a European neighborhood is a major incentive to resolve old differences and moderate behavior. This is not just a matter of political tactics: it is part of a new opening not available for hundreds of years.

Somewhere, USA: What is the latest word from the government and will his widow be able to make any political decisions?

James O'Brien: The government will keep operating, probably under a rotating premier, until it decides how to proceed. Serbia lacks a leader with a national mandate right now, and that could be a dangerous vacuum.

His widow has not played a role in politics. I expect she will take care of the family. That is more than enough for anyone to do after something as awful as this.

Cleveland Park, Washington, D.C.: How will the new "Serbia and Montenegro" governmental structure affect the creation of a new national leadership in the wake of the assassination? Do the populations of the two regions have different interests or political inclinations?

washingtonpost.com: Pivotal Alliance Frayed Before Serb's Death (Post, March 14, 2003)

James O'Brien: In general, I think that the specific status questions in the region (Montenegro, Kosovo, even Macedonia) matter less than a shared commitment by political leaders in each jurisdiction to work toward membership in Europe. As regards Montenegro specifically, I think it has lost a good friend. PM Djukanovic of Montenegro and PM Djindjic had a good working relationship on key questions (including to sideline President Kostunica), and I do not know who will pick that up. The future of "Serbia and Montenegro" depends, I believe, on Serbia's internal calculus. If Serbia now turns to its own struggle for reform, Montenegro may find itself independent. If Serbia looks for issues other than its own struggle, then there may be continued debate about just how strong the new union should be. That would be unfortunate.

Washington, D.C.: Do you see anything positive coming out of the assassination? A pretext for hammering the organized crime groups, a martyr that will unite the pro-Western forces, an end to the political logjam that existed between Djindic and Kostunica.

James O'Brien: I hope. It is unfortunate that the recent elections pitted "reform" against "national" politicians. But I am skeptical that this will be a pretty or quick process.

This is part of the broader lesson, especially for Americans. We talk of "peace implementation" or "democratic transitions" as though they are historical processes, rooted in the building of modern governmental institutions. That's a small part of the story. It takes a series of pitched battles against elements who make money and live well from chaos, corruption, and the legacy of regimes like Milosevic's. These are dangerous, time-consuming, and local in nature, with the risks and opportunities outside the headlines we follow. If we are not going to be invested for a long time we should be extremely cautious about getting in.

Cumberland, Md.: What role do you think that Nebosja Covic will play in the days ahead and in a new Serbia Government?

James O'Brien: He is a talented man who has taken on some difficult tasks with success. He has a background of belonging to different parts of the establishment, however, and it may be hard for him to build the deep commitment he might need to emerge as a political leader.

Gettysburg, Pa.: The presence of Serbian acting president Nataša Micic has made me wonder what has happened to Vojislav Koštunica? As I recall, he was elected president of Yugoslavia in September 2000. Then he ran for the Serbian presidency late last year, but the results were invalidated due to poor voter turn-out. Take me through the logistics of this: why did he want to be president of only Serbia and why is he not president of the Serbian-Montenegrin confederation? Was he written out of the latter position?

James O'Brien: Former President Kostunica wanted a popular mandate in a strong office. The presidency of Serbia, under a Milosevic constitution, was the most powerful position in what was Yugoslavia. As President, Kostunica would have popular backing in his political fight with Djindjic and could have used that to prepare for the next legislative elections. The new union of Serbia and Montenegro reduced the office of Yugoslav President still further, and I believe that Montenegro was interested in holding that position first in any event.

Alexandria, Va.: The old Yugoslavia functioned under a rotating President of the Presidency plan, which effectively meant that you never had a strong national leader for more than one year, at most. Will this assassination perhaps make the Serbs re-formulate their government, so that they have a Vice-President (or Vice- PM) ready to step in as needed, and be acknowledged as the legitimate leader?

James O'Brien: In a parliamentary system, the legislature can put a new PM in place quickly, so there isn't a legal obstacle. The problem here is that the legislature is fragmented and came together around Djindjic. Someone new will have to find a mandate. The challenge is whether they can cobble together a coalition that will support action to move Serbia forward.

The issue of Serbia's presidency is a serious one. A new Serbian constitution may restrict the powers of that office, or it may improve the election procedures so that such a powerful office does not sit empty.

Washington, DC: Is there any truth to rumors that Djindjic himself was involved in organized crime?

James O'Brien: There were many rumors, and I know that if he had not dealt with some groups associated with criminal activities, then those groups could well have stopped the opposition from toppling Milosevic. The question, in my mind, is whether his government was willing to act against organized crime and other legacies of the Milosevic government. It took some steps, slower than we might have liked, and last month it announced new measures. Now Djindjic is dead.

Arlington, Va.: Is there someone with the same reformist guts and vision ready to lead the country? What is the new leader like?

James O'Brien: I believe that there are people who can do this. We'll see what the political jockeying brings. I know that without Zoran Djindjic, Serbia would not have had the last two and a half years free from Milosevic and able to prepare itself for this fight.

Thanks for the questions. I enjoyed the session and hope it was worthwhile.

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