By Richard Morin and Claudia Deane
Sunday, May 24, 1998; Page C01

Marion Barry's decision to find another way to serve the District has turned a mayoral campaign that promised once more to be about race, class and one man's ego into a contest about democracy, demagoguery and that most peculiar of institutions, the District of Columbia Financial Responsibility and Management Assistance Authority -- a k a the control board.

And it's not merely likely, but inevitable, that the control board will be the biggest issue -- perhaps the only issue -- in this year's mayoral race. Over the past two years, one defining truth has emerged from surveys of District residents by The Washington Post and political consultants: The control board, which from its creation in 1995 was thought to be bitter but necessary medicine, has lost support on both sides of the river. Almost no one is entirely comfortable with the board, and it is fair to say that a growing number of middle-class blacks actively despise it.

That alone gives the candidates plenty of reason to lock and load on the control board issue this campaign season. Now Barry has given them another: His decision Thursday loosened from their moorings large chunks of voters who are downright hostile to the control board.

Barry was a virtuoso at playing on anti-control board sentiment. But it won't be hard for other candidates to play that tune, if they chose to go that route. The percentage of voters who think the control board was a good idea is sinking. And today, only a minority of District residents approve of the job that the control board is doing. Hardly anyone -- even the city's few Republicans -- says the control board should permanently run the city. And oh, the irony: While the board's popularity is in eclipse, Barry's job-approval rating has been going up.

Of course, some of this sourness was to be expected. The board was created to do the tough and unpopular work that many in Congress believed Barry was unwilling to do. It has slashed budgets and payrolls, and that means service cuts and a host of angry ex-city workers and their families.

But the political surprise that has emerged in recent months is that anger at the control board is coming from unexpected quarters. While most white residents still approve of the way the board is doing its job, the proportion is falling. In fact, the percentage of whites opposed to the board has grown faster in the past year than did the proportion of black opponents.

Even in Wards 2 and 3, home to Washington's white upper class, opposition to the board appears to be hardening. In a survey completed in March by political consultant Ron Lester, nearly half of all Ward 3 residents rated the board's performance as "just fair" or "poor," says Lester, who is working for mayoral hopeful and D.C. Council member Harold Brazil (D-At Large). "A year earlier, by a 2-1 margin, they said excellent or good. Finally, Ward 3 is joining the rest of the wards."

Those disaffected whites are joining growing numbers of middle-class blacks in opposition to the board. Remarkably, this group is far more likely than poorer blacks (who depend more on city services) to believe the board should have less power. They also believe the board should not have the authority to overturn decisions made by the mayor and city council. East of the river in Wards 7 and 8 -- which anchored Barry's comeback victory four years ago -- anger at the board is all about lost city jobs and board-mandated cuts in services. But along the Gold Coast and in other comfortable black neighborhoods in Wards 4 and 5, the board is seen as nothing less than an insult to blacks and a mean-spirited attempt by Republicans in Congress to turn back the clock on civil rights. Sound familiar? That's the phrase -- mean-spirited Republicans -- that Barry often uses to whip up his supporters.

So are we in for a summer of board bashing? Don't bet on it. Control board politics this year won't be that simple or that loud. That's because there are two fatal mistakes the mayoral hopefuls can make. One is to appear to be a lackey of the control board. The other is to appear to be another Marion Barry.

Race-based political appeals such as those that characterized Barry's campaigns probably won't work this time. For most voters, black and white, this election is about finding the right person to manage the endgame with Congress and guide the eventual transition back to home rule.

" 'I'm the best one to make the transition' -- all of them have to argue that," says political scientist Ron Walters of the University of Maryland. "You don't fight the board. You show dissatisfaction with it, but also convince voters you are the best one to cooperate [with Congress] enough to get this thing off our backs and provide a transition to something normal."

The most successful D.C. mayor -- who may not necessarily be the next mayor -- will be a coalition builder who unites not merely blacks and whites but labor and business interests. "Our shrinking revenue base will challenge the next mayor to be more, not less, cooperative," Lester said. "The next mayor's got to put together a coalition."

Control board politics pose different challenges to each of the three leading Democratic candidates, all of whom serve as D.C. Council members. Kevin Chavous, representing working-class Ward 7, stands to inherit the bulk of Barry's vote, which he desperately needs to win. The challenge for him is to talk the Barry talk just loud enough to keep the mayor's one-time supporters happy and motivated, but not so loud that he sends middle-income blacks and whites fleeing to other candidates.

Jack Evans, who comes out of upscale Ward 2, has the opposite problem. His backers are among the most supportive of the control board, a recent survey shows, but the voters he needs to attract are the ones who dislike the control board the most. He may be tempted to talk out of both sides of his mouth on this issue -- rarely a successful gambit, even in Washington.

To many, Brazil looks like the perfect fusion candidate, and the diversity of his support across racial and income groups is impressive. But the whisper on the street, triggered by his tough talk about fiscal responsibility, is that he thinks and talks too much like a control board member -- and that means his rainbow coalition could quickly vanish into thin air. He could fall victim to wrong-place, wrong-time politics.

Control board politics also stand to influence the election in other ways. After the mayor's announcement, some pundits immediately predicted a low-turnout, low-interest election. And there is evidence that they may be right. Even at this early stage of the campaign, the leading Democratic candidates are astonishingly unknown, surveys show. Brazil, who won a citywide race just two years ago, is a stranger to half of all city residents, according to the latest Post poll. Just as many Washingtonians are clueless about Chavous, and even more don't know Evans, but that's not as surprising for two politicians without a proven citywide base.

And voters who went stink-eyed at the mere mention of Barry's name have less reason to vote this year, another factor that might depress the turnout. (Barry haters, don't despair yet. There's always the possibility that Barry could change his mind and file before the July 8 deadline.)

Likewise, the mayor's truest believers also have less reason to turn out, particularly downscale and younger blacks in Wards 7 and 8 whom Barry registered en masse four years ago. And thanks to Congress, the job ain't what it used to be; voters this year are essentially electing a parks commissioner, not a mayor.

But overwhelming numbers of voters are telling poll takers this is a "very important" election. Even before Barry bowed out, people were saying they felt better about the city than they have in years, which suggests they might go to the polls in droves to keep the control board honest.

Richard Morin is director of polling for The Washington Post. Claudia Deane is the assistant director.