Ellen R. Sauerbrey Sauerbrey waves to onlookers from her campaign van. (By Andrew Cutraro - washingtonpost.com) Post Stories • Philosophy Never a Secret • Her Style: Modest, Methodical • No Drought for the Rainmaker • Message, Money Key in Race • Sauerbrey Plays Down '94 • Fund-Raising Gains Momentum • Sauerbrey Proposes Tax Cut • Campaign Attracts Heavyweights • Sauerbrey Launches New Bid

By Daniel LeDuc
and Scott Wilson
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, October 29, 1998; Page A01

If Ellen R. Sauerbrey makes history Tuesday by becoming Maryland's first GOP governor since Spiro T. Agnew, the culture of state politics and government could be turned on its head.

In a state that has produced laws sympathetic to labor, tough environmental protection, generous social programs and tight gun regulations, the new political debate could be dramatically different: Sauerbrey's priorities are to cut taxes, make government leaner and ease regulations to encourage new businesses to come to Maryland.

Should Sauerbrey prevail upon a Democratic-controlled legislature, Marylanders may indeed find their taxes lower-and lawmakers under greater pressure to cut popular spending programs. They also may find new restrictions on late-term abortions, a more hostile atmosphere for labor unions, slot machines at horse-racing tracks and greater reliance on a back-to-basics use of phonics to teach reading, according to Sauerbrey's advisers, elected officials and political observers.

During the campaign, Sauerbrey has favored roads over mass transit and backed more prison construction. And analysts say a GOP governor overseeing redistricting after the 2000 Census could result in more Republicans elected to the General Assembly.

But how much Sauerbrey would accomplish of her agenda would depend on several factors: How well she worked with the Democratic legislative leadership and whether she attracted competent appointees for her administration, no small task in a state where few Republicans have executive branch experience.

Perhaps most critical would be whether Sauerbrey stuck to her campaign promise to put fiscal conservatism before a more activist social agenda. In the past, Sauerbrey has voted against abortion rights, gun control and certain environmental protection measures, all of which were popular with many Maryland voters.

On the Trail Sauerbrey greets football fans before game at University of Maryland. (By Andrew Cutraro - washingtonpost.com) From breakfast with business people to a day at the races, you can see and hear Sauerbrey court the votes she needs to win a tight race with Gov. Glendening.

Sauerbrey has said that she would leave state laws on those issues largely untouched, but she would be pressed aggressively by her most passionate supporters to chart a more conservative-and politically risky-course. Some supporters, for instance, almost certainly would urge Sauerbrey to embrace school vouchers and school choice-two issues she has avoided discussing during her campaign. Others are adamant about limiting Medicaid abortion funding and putting a ban on what opponents term "partial birth" abortions high on the Sauerbrey agenda.

A Sauerbrey administration "would open up a tremendous opportunity for Republicans and conservative Democrats to work together on a much more conservative approach to public policy," said Sen. Larry E. Haines (R-Carroll). "We're going to have less spending and lower taxes, and we're going to outlaw this type of abortion. It's looking good."

But other advisers are urging Sauerbrey to be cautious, lest she stir up partisan wrangling that could undermine her effectiveness. "I think she knows she has to steer a moderate course to accomplish things," said Timothy F. Maloney, a Democratic former delegate from Prince George's County who bucked his party to support Sauerbrey this year. "To the extent she's criticized for it by the far right-wing, so much the better" in strengthening her appeal to moderates, he said.

Independent analysts such as Johns Hopkins University political scientist Matthew Crenson agreed: "I don't think she has any chance of turning things around on gun control or abortion. If she tries, she's going to kill the rest of her agenda."

In an interview this week, Sauerbrey said she would sign legislation banning partial-birth abortions-which Gov. Parris N. Glendening (D) threatened to veto last year-but generally would not confront the legislature over the issue. She backed away from her previously stated desire to end Medicaid funding for most abortions, saying she would not remove such funding in her first budget and would leave the issue to the legislature.

"You have to pick your battles," she said. "That's a battle that will be fought in the legislature."

Dramatic Departure

The job brings with it enormous power, even when compared with other states' chief executives. In Maryland, for example, the governor has immense power within the budget to set spending priorities while the legislature's checks on that power are limited.

And other than state comptroller, attorney general and treasurer, the governor appoints virtually all top positions in state government-more than 100 people-as well as about 100 state judges and more than 5,000 people to dozens of commissions and advisory boards over a four-year term. Many Republican activists who have been long shut out of such appointments would suddenly be in the pool of possible picks.

The next governor also will oversee redistricting, and political analysts expect Sauerbrey would reconfigure legislative districts to enhance the chances of more Republicans winning office. Sauerbrey said she expects that Baltimore, a Democratic bastion, would lose a legislative district after the next census because of the city's dwindling population.

The tone for Sauerbrey's administration-like any new governor's-would be set in the first six months. Should she win on Tuesday, Sauerbrey would have little time to prepare a legislative agenda and complete a budget proposal before being sworn into office during a new General Assembly session in January.

Given that timing, her first legislative session would be as much about developing a working relationship with Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Prince George's) and House Speaker Casper R. Taylor Jr. (D-Allegany) as it would about policy initiatives. While polls show Sauerbrey and Glendening in a close race, with the result likely to depend on voter turnout, political observers of all stripes predict the legislature will remain under Democratic control.

For Sauerbrey, dealing with the legislative leadership as governor would require an adjustment. She served eight years, ending in 1994, as House minority leader and largely viewed her job as a partisan foil to the Democratic majority.

As governor, "she can't go too far to the right because she's going to have to deal with an executive nominating committee" which approves her key appointees, Miller said. "We're certainly not going to have someone appointed to a branch of state government who considers it their job to dismember that branch of state government."

Sauerbrey's legislative allies didn't predict any problems in her relationship with the General Assembly. "I want her to have a practical agenda that unifies not divides the General Assembly," said Del. John S. Morgan (R-Howard). "I don't want to waste our opportunity trying to demonstrate ideological purity to the electorate. I want to get things done."

Few Sauerbrey advisers would speak for the record on whom she might appoint to top state jobs. But no matter who received the actual appointments, it's clear that Sauerbrey would turn for her advice to a different cast of characters-some of whom have advised Democratic governors, but most who have not.

Sauerbrey is close, for instance, to Baltimore insurance executive B. Larry Jenkins and retired manufacturing executive Richard E. Hug; both are directors of Maryland Business for Responsive Government, one of the state's most conservative advocacy groups. Sauerbrey said she would also seek advice-and perhaps staff-from other GOP governors such as Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey and John Engler of Michigan.

She also regularly turns to advisers associated with the Calvert Institute, a conservative Baltimore think tank that has published papers recommending more choice in public education and trimming the state bureaucracy. Seven of the group's 15 trustees have donated to her campaign, and at least two are considered members of Sauerbrey's inner circle.

First-Year Agenda

"If she could walk out of Annapolis in April 1999 with those three things accomplished, she would have a good start," said Sen. Martin G. Madden (R-Howard), a longtime Sauerbrey ally.

Select a ballot to see brief biographies of candidates and descriptions of the races and referendums. Select a Ballot Governor Other Statewide Anne Arundel Calvert Charles Howard Montgomery Prince George's St. Mary's * This report previews parts of The Washington Post Voters' Guide, to be published Saturday. (Sunday in the Southern Maryland Extra.)

But big battles probably would loom ahead. Democrats may balk at the retiree tax cut, preferring first to speed up the completion of a planned 10 percent tax cut. There could also be fights over cutting the budget. Sauerbrey has cited a Calvert report that outlined $870 million in possible reductions, ranging from such minor items as curtailing spending on the state yacht to bigger-ticket items such as smaller contributions to the state employees' retirement fund. (She has not embraced all of the report, which has been criticized by the General Assembly's nonpartisan fiscal staff for inaccuracies.)

Slot machines loom as an issue no matter who is governor.

Glendening has vowed to veto any gambling legislation; Sauerbrey has said she would consider slot machines only as a last resort to help Maryland's horse-racing industry and would favor a referendum to decide the issue.

The next governor also will have to contend with how to pay for highway construction, because Maryland's transportation fund is running low. Business leaders, including some of Sauerbrey's most vocal supporters, want an increase in the gasoline tax. She has not ruled that out, but said she prefers to shift mass transit subsidies into road building.

Perhaps the most significant area where Sauerbrey promises a major departure is in openness to the business community. Leading business groups expect Sauerbrey would take steps to reduce the cost of government, including eliminating rules that require the state to pay the prevailing wage to public contractors-a proposal that has been bottled up in the Democratic-controlled General Assembly.

"I don't think she'll be as aggressive implementing any regulations, like the pfiesteria [pollution] regulations, which was very suspect," said state Sen. J. Lowell Stoltzfus (R-Eastern Shore), a Sauerbrey ally. "It wasn't based on science. I think she'll be very careful."

Douglas Hamilton Jr., who owns a mid-size manufacturing firm, is typical of the fiscally conservative business owners who would be largely responsible for funding Sauerbrey's victory, if she wins. He is also chairman of the Calvert Institute, and when asked what he expected from a Sauerbrey administration he was very specific.

"A rapid, broad-based tax cut, and I would hope there would be similar restraint in spending," said Hamilton, who has given $7,900 to Sauerbrey's campaign. "I would hope she would start some initiatives for school vouchers and to support school choice."

There could also be some surprises in a Sauerbrey administration. In interviews this year, she has endorsed the idea of requiring a two-thirds vote in the General Assembly for any tax increase-though even some supporters say that wouldn't fly. Another idea being discussed seriously by some of her advisers is eliminating the state income tax for Baltimore residents, to stop the migration to the suburbs.

"I think a reduction in the tax burden would encourage people to buy homes and live in the city, as well as spurring investment there," Sauerbrey said earlier this year.