Pr. William Is 'Ground Zero' in Battle for Va. House of Delegates
By Ellen Nakashima and Mike Allen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, December 25, 1997; Page B01
It's the conservative Washington suburb filled with young, budget-conscious families and harried commuters where Republican James S. Gilmore III got the idea to ax the detested property tax on cars and trucks -- the campaign pledge he rode to the governor's mansion in last month's elections.
And now, it's where the Democrats are in danger of losing their tenuous hold on the Virginia House. By choosing Democratic Del. David G. Brickley to join his administration, Gilmore has opened up a key House seat in a district that's becoming ever more Republican.
For Republicans, the Jan. 13 special election for Brickley's seat -- as well as two other elections that day to fill House vacancies -- is a chance to draw virtually even with Democrats in the 100-member House, where there will be 50 Democrats, 46 Republicans and a GOP-leaning independent when the legislative session convenes next month. Confident Republicans yesterday said a power-sharing agreement may be needed to get anything done in the House this session, while both parties predicted an expensive campaign in Prince William.
"This is Ground Zero for control of the House," Gilmore consultant Ray Allen said of Prince William. "It's also Ground Zero for the car tax."
Allen was echoed by several political analysts: The rapidly growing suburb outside the Capital Beltway -- home to the state's top tourist attraction, Potomac Mills mall -- is increasingly a microcosm of the state and its voters' concerns.
In last month's elections it was Democrats' inability to address some voters' worries about taxes and schools that led Gilmore to swamp Democrat Donald S. Beyer Jr. in Prince William, part of a historic GOP sweep of the three statewide offices. In Brickley's House district, Gilmore received 62 percent of the vote.
Democrats, who have controlled state government for a century, have been shaken by election losses that have cost them the government's executive branch and created a deadlocked Senate that will be led this session by a Republican lieutenant governor. Democrats are struggling to project confidence, even as they scramble to find someone to run for Brickley's old job.
"I have no problems once we have our candidate," said Democratic Party Chairman Sue Wrenn. "We'll be behind the candidate, full steam ahead."
The two seats being vacated besides Brickley's have been held by Republicans, and analysts say Democrats have a shot at winning one of those. But even many Democrats acknowledge that keeping Brickley's seat could be difficult.
Republican Michele B. McQuigg, a county supervisor from Occoquan, proclaimed her candidacy hours after Gilmore announced Brickley was joining his team. She said she will campaign in support of Gilmore's plans to cut the car tax and hire 4,000 new elementary teachers.
Democrats yesterday still were uncertain who they would run, although School Board member Linda H. Lutes of Occoquan said she's interested. Lutes, who won election to the board two years ago, said she's hopeful that Democrats can keep the seat by stressing issues that county voters care about, such as improving education and doing something about the fast-growing school system's building crunch.
Gilmore may have promised the state 4,000 new teachers, "but we don't have any place to put them," she said. "Bricks and mortar. That's the issue."
County Democratic Chairman Mike Riley agreed. "We must come up with some issues that people feel comfortable with in supporting us," he said. "There's a strain on the school system. There's too many homes being built now. We're a bedroom community. We have a lengthy commute. We need to improve transportation access. We're talking about the quality of life."
Gilmore's "No Car Tax!" pledge and his plan for more teachers tapped into those concerns, the GOP's Allen said. It was a conservative Prince William Democrat, state Sen. Charles J. Colgan, who first pitched the idea of cutting the car tax during the last legislature.
Robert Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University, said that Prince William is "probably the epitome of what we've seen across the South" -- a fast-growing suburb that is a magnet for Republican votes because people who move there often are attuned to traditional GOP ideals.
Beyer, Gilmore's Democratic opponent this fall, knew well the appeal of cutting the car tax in key voting areas like Prince William, telling county Democrats earlier this year: "As Prince William goes, so goes Virginia. This is the bellwether for political life in the late 20th century."
And yet, Beyer initially rejected cutting the car tax because of its cost -- estimated by legislative analysts to be as much as $530 million over two years -- was too high. He lost the election by 13 percentage points, and by more in Prince William. Democratic Del. Brickley, meanwhile, was reelected by a 14-point margin -- after campaigning on a cut-the-car-tax pledge similar to Gilmore's.
Myrna L. Phelps, a Woodbridge real estate broker who is the Prince William Republican chairman, said her party's emphasis on security and prosperity appeals to the families moving into the county, which just 15 years ago was solidly Democratic.
"We're the pendulum swinging the other way," she said. "Democrats went too far with their social programs. People here have good jobs and are making good money, but they're not keeping it. People want . . . to keep a good life for themselves and for their children."
Brickley's departure "is a historic opportunity for us," the GOP's Allen said. "We will absolutely pull out the stops. We'll spend whatever it takes. We will win this seat."
If the Republicans do so, and hold on to the other two open seats in Chesapeake and Chesterfield, they would boost their numbers to 49 in the House. All eyes then would be on independent Del. Lacey Putney of Bedford, who usually votes with the GOP. Strategists in both sides say Putney could be offered the speakership or the chairmanship of the Appropriations Committee in exchange for casting his lot with Republicans.
Putney acknowledged he has been courted by both sides of the aisle. "I've received calls from leadership with both parties, saying, `Keep your options open,' " he said.
Meanwhile, Republicans are talking more and more about forcing a power-sharing pact, much as their brethren did in the Senate in 1996. Some conservative Democrats, seeing their party's grip on power eroding, say Democrats ought to divide committee assignments much as the Senate has.
"It's the right thing to do," said Del. Whittington W. Clement (D-Danville), who has resigned his seat on the corporations, insurance and banking panel so that a Republican may be appointed in his place. Right now, 14 Democrats and eight Republicans are on the committee.
Nakashima reported from Richmond, Allen from Alexandria.
© Copyright 1997 The Washington Post Company
