By R.H. Melton
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, February 7, 1998; Page C01

RICHMOND, Feb. 6—Three Saturdays ago, at the very moment Republican James S. Gilmore III was ascending to Virginia's governorship, Sue Wrenn was in the blue-collar city of Newport News, preaching the Democratic gospel to 60 of the party faithful in a downtown union hall.

There were issues like health care, she recalled this morning, and deteriorating public schools and the urgent need for a new tunnel across the harbor in Hampton Roads. On and on went the list of everyday concerns that once propelled Democrats into the governor's mansion.

But no more. As Wrenn -- who surprised no one Thursday in resigning as state Democratic chairman -- knows all too well, Virginia's Democratic Party has either lost touch with voters, or they with it. Or both, according to an array of senior politicians and longtime observers of the state's political scene.

Voters "think our candidates are captivated by consultants and outside advisers," Wrenn said, reflecting on the Republican sweep of all three statewide offices last fall, and on recent elections that ended a century of Democratic dominance in the legislature. "When that happens, you lose touch with how you reach and motivate voters."

Virginia Democrats are at rock bottom today, and while many activists see that as an opportunity -- there's no place to go but up -- others are warning that it could be several election cycles before the party of Robb, Baliles and Wilder can build the coalitions and find the resonating issues to capture voters.

A large portion of the party's problem is a continuing hangover from the November election, when then-Lt. Gov. Donald S. Beyer Jr., who was the leading light of the Democrats, lost to Gilmore and his appealing no-car-tax drumbeat.

Some Democrats who had pinned their hopes on Beyer, a young and attractive moderate from vote-rich Northern Virginia, say he failed to follow his own instincts and instead waged a campaign on Gilmore's terms. In particular, they point to Beyer's proposal of a tax cut he wasn't enthusiastic about in response to Gilmore's tax-relief plan.

"For me, switching the message and validating the car tax was a gross tactical error," said Del. William P. Robinson Jr. (D-Norfolk), one of the most senior African American members of the General Assembly. "That's when Don made his fatal mistake, when he deviated from what he believed was right."

"You can't run a campaign entirely by polls," Robinson said.

Beyer's defeat is by no means the sole source of the party's pain, but for some it was emblematic of how expensive, poll-driven politicking can fall short if it doesn't address what voters really care about.

State Sen. Charles J.. Colgan (D), who has seen a Republican tide wash over his home county of Prince William, was blunt in his assessment. "Democrats have dropped the ball," he said.

"For 17 years, we were in control and never let elected school boards pass," Colgan said. "Now we have them. We held back parental notification [for abortions]. I put in a bill to kill the personal property tax [on cars] two years in a row, and we let the Republicans steal that issue.

"We need to get in tune with the public," said Colgan, now the lone Democrat among the seven legislators who represent portions of Prince William.

Sen. J. Randy Forbes (R-Chesapeake), the state GOP chairman, said Republicans learned how to out-organize the Democrats and talk to voters about bread-and-butter issues that go beyond the car tax alone.

"There's something the Democrats don't get -- they do not fully understand our success," Forbes said today. "We didn't win because of a bumper sticker. We didn't win on one issue.

"The key to us is continuing to keep unified, constantly talking to the grass roots," Forbes said. "For them to think the season has changed is ludicrous. You create your own climate."

Some Democrats desperately want a fresh face as chairman, a business leader with a proven track record, who can spark enthusiasm in the traditional base but attract swing voters as well. In the wake of Wrenn's resignation, L.F. Payne Jr., a Charlottesville area businessman who lost the lieutenant governor's race in November, was being widely mentioned as a contender, as were several legislators, including Del. Kenneth R. Plum of Fairfax.

Payne said he had given no consideration to seeking the chairmanship but said the party can improve. "We need to get back to basics, with ideas and better communication with each other," he said.

Senior Democrats like Robinson say the party needs a disciplined unity, "more structure in what we do and better communication to the voter and between each other."

"We'll be back, we have a couple of bright stars," Robinson said. "Our long-term strategy is not based on a gimmick. Besides, we have the message: school construction."

Whether Democrats can move huge numbers of voters with their call for spending billions of dollars on new and renovated schools remains to be seen, but legislators who are pressing that case as a mom-and-pop-and-kids issue do seem more energized than they did in the aftermath of the November election.

"If we talk about the things that matter in our lives and have candidates who can speak to the people at the supermarket -- the checker and the bagger -- we'll be fine," Wrenn said.

H. Benson Dendy III, a well-known Democrat and lobbyist, sees cycles in Virginia politics, such as the early 1980s era that sent both Republican Ronald Reagan to the White House and Democrat Charles S. Robb to the Executive Mansion here in Richmond. "The state, no question, is leaning Republican," Dendy said. "Republicans will win more often than not."

But, he added, "there's no finality in politics."

Many Democrats are looking to Northern Virginia businessman Mark Warner -- who showed surprising strength despite losing the 1996 U.S. Senate race to John W. Warner (R) -- to reclaim the party chairmanship he once held. Not only does Mark Warner have a telecommunications fortune worth hundreds of millions of dollars but he is just 43, energetic and has shown signs of being able to energize voters with a message that focuses on education and Virginia's high-tech economy. Most Democratic leaders -- and Republicans as well -- expect Warner to run for governor in 2001.

Warner could not be reached for comment today; he was vacationing in the Caribbean.