Washington Post Prince George's County Election Poll August 2002 The latest Washington Post poll is based on telephone interviews with 1,201 randomly selected adults, including 911 self-described registered voters, in Prince George's County. The poll was conducted August 14 - 19, 2002. The margin of error for overall results is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error in this or any other public opinion poll. Interviewing was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. RV = Registered Voters 1. Are you registered to vote in Prince George's County, or haven't you had a chance to register? Yes No No opin. 8/19/02 67 33 0 ***IF NO, DK, REF AT Q1*** 2. Are you a resident of Prince George's County? Yes No No opin. 8/19/02 100 0 0 ***IF YES, REGISTERED AT Q1*** 3. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent, or something else? Dem Rep Ind Other No opin. 8/19/02 71 14 9 5 1 ***ASK IF REGISTERED DEMOCRAT*** 4. This year's Democratic primary election for county executive is September 10. Some people have busier schedules than others. Because of this, some people who plan to vote can't always get around to it on election day. With your personal schedule in mind, I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the Prince George's County Democratic primary election on September 10. Are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, probably will vote, are the chances 50-50, or don't you think you will vote in that election? Certain Likely Probably Chances Don't think No to vote to vote vote 50/50 will vote opin. 8/19/02 55 15 11 11 7 1 ***ASK IF REGISTERED DEMOCRAT *** 5/6. 5. Suppose the primary election for county executive were held today. Would you vote for: Rushern Baker, Jim Estepp, Jack Johnson, C. Anthony Muse or Major Riddick? Which one are you leaning toward right now? Net Leaned Vote -Democratic registered voters Wouldn't Baker Estepp Johnson Muse Riddick Vote Undecided 8/19/02 5 12 26 14 7 8 28 Net Leaned Vote - Likely Democratic voters Baker Estepp Johnson Muse Riddick Undecided 8/19/02 5 16 31 16 9 23 ***ASK IF SELECTED CANDIDATE AT Q5 OR Q6*** 7. Would you say you strongly support or just somewhat support (SHOW NAME OF SELECTED CANDIDATE)? Summary Table: 8/19/02 Strongly Somewhat No opin. Baker ** ** ** Estepp ** ** ** Johnson 49 51 * Muse 43 57 0 Riddick ** ** ** **BASE TOO SMALL TO ANALYZE ***ASK IF SELECTED CANDIDATE AT Q5 OR Q6*** 8. As things stand now, are you absolutely certain that you will vote for (CANDIDATE NAME), or is there at least a chance that you might change your mind? Summary Table: 8/19/02 Will vote May change No opin. Baker ** ** ** Estepp ** ** ** Johnson 52 48 0 Muse 44 56 0 Riddick ** ** ** **BASE TOO SMALL TO ANALYZE 9. Generally speaking, how interested are you in the current campaign for county executive: would you say you are very interested, fairly interested, not too interested, or not interested at all? -----Interested----- -----Not interested----- No NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opin. 8/19/02 59 27 32 40 19 21 1 8/19/02 RV 72 34 37 28 17 11 1 13. Do you think things in Prince George's County (are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)? Right Wrong No direction track opin. 8/19/02 47 44 8 8/19/02 RV 46 51 4 10/21/96 RV 50 42 8 7/20/94 RV 40 51 9 14. Overall, how would you rate Prince George's County as a place to live: Excellent, good, not-so-good, or poor? ----Excellent/Good----- -----Not so good/Poor----- No NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op. 8/19/02 77 16 61 23 16 7 * 8/19/02 RV 75 17 57 25 19 7 * 10/21/96 RV 74 13 61 26 18 8 * 7/20/94 RV 76 11 65 24 17 7 * 15. In the past 10 years, would you say the quality of life in Prince George's County has (gotten better), (gotten worse), or has it stayed about the same? Better Worse Same No opin. 8/19/02 27 28 37 7 8/19/02 RV 27 32 36 4 10/21/96 RV 23 35 37 4 7/20/94 RV 23 41 34 3 16a. What do you like most about living in Prince George's County? 8/19/02 8/19/02 (RV) 7/94 (RV) Convenient/accessible to DC, MD, VA 26 30 39 Neighborhood/area/countryside 24 22 34 Affordable housing/low cost of living 9 9 12 Public services/good transportation 7 7 8 Friends or family nearby 6 5 9 Cultural/ethnic/racial diversity 4 5 6 Safety of area 3 2 7 Schools 2 2 NA Taxes are reasonable 1 2 2 Economy 1 1 NA Everything 1 1 NA Other 1 1 NA Nothing 11 11 8 Don't Know 4 4 NA 16b. What do you like least about living in Prince George's County?? 8/19/02 8/19/02 (RV) 7/94 (RV) Crime/violence 18 19 28 Education system/poor schools 13 17 13 Police 8 7 5 Crowded areas 7 7 6 Lack of public transportation 5 4 9 Taxes too high 4 5 9 Government system 3 4 4 Housing or rent costs too high 3 2 3 Negative image/no community pride 3 3 4 Traffic is bad 3 3 8 Inadequate shopping options 3 5 NA Area run down 2 1 3 No jobs/jobs scarce 2 2 NA Poor services/streets and roads 2 2 NA Drugs 1 1 8 Racial issues 1 1 NA Decline of social system xx xx 3 Nothing 13 9 15 Other 3 3 NA Don't Know 7 5 NA 17. I am going to read to you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person, or perhaps you don't know enough to say: Summary Table: 8/19/02 All Respondents: Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Rushern Baker 11 6 83 Jim Estepp 24 6 70 Jack Johnson 31 13 57 C. Anthony Muse 23 10 67 Major Riddick 19 9 72 Registered Democratic Voters: Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Rushern Baker 15 7 78 Jim Estepp 28 7 65 Jack Johnson 44 13 43 C. Anthony Muse 31 13 56 Major Riddick 23 11 66 18. Now I'm going to read you a list of things that some people say are problems in the county, but others do not. For each, please tell me if you think this is a big problem, a small problem or not a problem in Prince George's County. Summary Table 8/19/02 All Respondents: Big Small Not a No problem problem problem opinion a. The quality of the public schools 52 24 14 9 b. Unemployment/not enough good jobs 49 30 14 8 c. Violent crime 70 23 4 2 d. Drugs 69 21 6 4 e. Relation between the police and the community 47 30 20 2 f. The overall health of the local economy 35 40 21 4 g. Low income residents moving from the District into Prince George's County 41 25 26 8 h. The absence of stores specializing in exclusive, high-end merchandise* 39 27 32 3 i. Relations between the races* 18 47 33 3 j. Transportation and roads* 32 37 31 * k. Problems related to immigrants* 25 27 37 11 *Items h-k asked of half sample. Trend where available: a. The quality of the public schools Big Small Not a No problem problem problem opinion 8/19/02 52 24 14 9 8/19/02 RV 60 24 8 7 10/21/96 RV 55 25 13 7 7/20/94 RV 61 35 2 1 b. Unemployment/not enough good jobs Big Small Not a No problem problem problem opinion 8/19/02 49 30 14 8 8/19/02 RV 50 30 12 7 10/21/96 RV 54 29 12 5 7/20/94 RV 59 24 10 7 c. Violent crime Big Small Not a No problem problem problem opinion 8/19/02 70 23 4 2 8/19/02 RV 72 23 3 2 10/21/96 RV 77 20 3 * 7/20/94 RV 34 46 19 1 d. Drugs Big Small Not a No problem problem problem opinion 8/19/02 69 21 6 4 8/19/02 RV 72 21 3 4 10/21/96 RV 84 12 2 2 7/20/94 RV 81 15 3 1 e. Relation between the police and the community Big Small Not a No problem problem problem opinion 8/19/02 47 30 20 2 8/19/02 RV 52 32 16 1 10/21/96 RV 34 41 22 3 7/20/94 RV 29 39 30 3 f. The overall health of the local economy Big Small Not a No problem problem problem opinion 8/19/02 35 40 21 4 8/19/02 RV 36 43 18 3 10/21/96 RV 40 41 18 2 7/20/94 RV 42 37 17 4 g. No trend. h. The absence of stores specializing in exclusive, high-end merchandise Big Small Not a No problem problem problem opinion 8/19/02 39 27 32 3 8/19/02 RV 42 26 29 3 10/21/96 RV* 33 31 33 3 7/20/94 RV 82 16 2 * *"exclusive" was added i. Relations between the races Big Small Not a No problem problem problem opinion 8/19/02 18 47 33 3 8/19/02 RV 19 50 29 2 10/21/96 RV 38 40 21 1 7/20/94 RV 31 41 25 3 j. Transportation and roads Big Small Not a No problem problem problem opinion 8/19/02 32 37 31 * 8/19/02 RV 33 37 29 1 10/21/96 RV 33 40 25 1 7/20/94 RV 56 28 12 4 k. Problems related to immigrants Big Small Not a No problem problem problem opinion 8/19/02 25 27 37 11 8/19/02 RV 27 30 32 11 10/21/96 RV 25 37 32 6 7/20/94 RV 23 41 29 7 19. Overall, how would you rate the quality of public schools in Prince George's County: Excellent, good, not-so-good or poor? ----Excellent/Good----- -----Not so good/Poor----- No NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op. 8/19/02 43 4 39 48 29 19 9 8/19/02 RV 39 3 37 54 33 21 7 10/21/96 RV 50 4 46 44 29 14 7 7/20/94 RV 46 3 43 49 32 17 5 20. Do you think the quality of public schools in Prince George's County is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse Same No opinion 8/19/02 25 22 43 9 8/19/02 RV 23 26 43 8 10/21/96 RV 15 33 44 7 7/20/94 RV 13 40 41 6 21. As you may have heard, the county's elected school board was dismissed earlier this year, and has been replaced by a new board appointed by the governor and the county executive. Do you think it was generally a good idea or generally a bad idea to replace the existing board with a newly appointed one? Good idea Bad idea No opinion 8/19/02 62 24 14 8/19/02 RV 63 25 11 22. Considering everything, how well do you think whites and blacks get along in Prince George's County: Very well, fairly well, not-too-well or not well at all? ----------Well---------- --------Not well-------- No NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opin. 8/19/02 86 18 68 11 9 2 3 8/19/02 RV 88 16 72 10 9 1 2 10/21/96 RV 84 10 74 14 11 4 2 7/20/94 RV 84 13 71 15 10 5 1 23. How important is it that the next county executive be African-American? Very important, fairly important, not too important, or not important at all? -----Important----- -----Not important----- No NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opinion 8/19/02 35 15 20 62 21 41 3 8/19/02 RV 34 14 20 63 21 42 2 7/94 25 12 13 74 21 54 2 24. Do you think that whites in Prince George's County have too much, too little or just about the right amount of influence in county politics? Too much Too little Right amount No influence influence of influence opinion 8/19/02 26 12 50 12 8/19/02 RV 27 15 49 9 10/21/96 RV 38 8 46 8 7/20/94 RV 38 8 44 11 25. Do you think that blacks in Prince George's County have too much, too little or just about the right amount of influence in county politics? Too much Too little Right amount No influence influence of influence opinion 8/19/02 10 39 39 11 8/19/02 RV 13 41 39 7 10/21/96 RV 5 47 40 8 7/20/94 RV 7 55 29 9 ***HALF SAMPLE*** 26a. Right now, blacks make up about 60 percent of the population of Prince George's County. Would it be better for the county if the percentage of black residents increased, decreased or stayed about the same? Increased Decreased Stayed the same No opinion 8/19/02 12 10 69 9 8/19/02 RV 10 9 71 9 7/94* 10 7 72 11 *"Right now, blacks make up about half…" ***HALF SAMPLE*** 26b. Right now, whites make up about 25 percent of the population of Prince George's County. Would it be better for the county if the percentage of white residents increased, decreased or stayed about the same? Increased Decreased Stayed the same No opinion 8/19/02 37 2 48 13 8/19/02 RV 41 * 44 15 7/94* 26 4 58 12 **"Right now, whites make up about 40 percent…" 27. As you may know, Prince George's County has a law in place called TRIM that caps county property taxes. TRIM prohibits the county council and county executive from increasing the real estate property tax rate beyond a certain limit. Do you think the TRIM law should stay in place or do you think it should be repealed? Should Should be Don't know No stay repealed about TRIM opinion 8/19/02 66 25 6 3 8/19/02 RV 70 23 4 3 28. These days, how safe from crime do you feel in your neighborhood? Would you say you feel very safe from crime, somewhat safe, not too safe, or not safe at all? --------Safe-------- -------Not safe------ No NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion 8/19/02 78 29 48 22 14 8 * 8/19/02 RV 80 29 51 20 14 6 * COMPARE TO WASHINGTON D.C: These days, how safe from crime do you feel in your neighborhood? Would you say you feel very safe from crime, somewhat safe, not too safe, or not safe at all? --------Safe-------- -------Not safe------ No NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion 5/19/02 74 27 47 25 16 9 * 29. Generally speaking, do you think the Prince George's County police force tends to use too much physical force, or do you think they use only the necessary and appropriate amount of physical force? Too much Necessary/ Not No force appropriate enough opin. 8/19/02 48 42 2 7 8/19/02 RV 50 42 2 5 ***SKIP IF "WHOLE LIFE" AT Q30*** 33. Where did you live before moving to Prince George's County? 8/19/02 Washington DC 38 Montgomery County, MD 9 Elsewhere in Maryland 17 Northern Virginia 5 Elsewhere in Virginia 4 Elsewhere in the country 20 Out of the country 7 34. If you had your choice, are there other places in the Washington area other than Prince George's County where you'd rather live, or not? 8/19/02 Washington DC 7 Virginia 6 Montgomery County, MD 16 Elsewhere in Maryland 15 Other 9 Would not rather live elsewhere 46 35. Thinking about the past year or so, have you considered moving out of Prince George's County? (IF YES) Have you seriously considered moving, or just talked about it? ------------Yes----------- Have No NET Seriously Talked not opin. 8/19/02 44 25 19 56 * 8/19/02 RV 47 26 21 53 * ***ASK IF Q35=YES*** 36. What is the main reason you have considered moving? 8/19/02 8/19/02 (RV) Better schools 15 18 Crime/violence/drugs 19 19 Racial mix of county 2 2 To be nearer to public transportation 4 4 Lower taxes 4 5 Less traffic 2 1 Job related/for work 6 4 Retirement related 3 4 Be closer to family 4 3 Better home/buy home 7 8 Cost of living 5 5 Be closer to city 2 3 Be away from city 14 14 Other 9 6 *= less than 0.5 percent