Washington Post Poll

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 22-25, 2008, among a random sample of 1,026 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia, including 902 registered voters and 784 likely voters. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points; it is 3.5 points for likely voters and larger for subgroups. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

                                    
                ---- Closely -----   ---- Not closely -----     No
                NET   Very   Smwt.   NET   Not too   At all   opinion
10/25/08 VA RV  92     62     30      7        5        2        1           
9/21/08  VA RV  93     58     35      7        6        1        *  

2. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

                                                     Don't think  Already 
              Certain  Probably  Chances  Less than   will vote    voted   No    
              to vote    vote     50/50     that       (vol.)     (vol.)   op.
10/25/08 VA     88        4         2         1            1         5      0
9/21/08  VA     88        6         5         2            *        NA      * 

3. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans), for whom would you vote?

NET LEANED VOTE - LIKELY VOTERS

Other Neither No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion 10/25/08 VA 52 44 1 * 3 9/21/08 VA 49 46 * 2 3 10/25/08 Nat. 52 45 1 * 2

NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS

Other Neither Would not No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion 10/25/08 VA 52 41 1 2 1 4 9/21/08 VA 50 44 * 2 1 3 10/25/08 Nat.* 51 44 1 * * 3

*National comparisions from Post-ABC daily tracking poll

3b. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Would you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a GOOD CHANCE you'll change your mind, or would you say it's PRETTY UNLIKELY?

     
             Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No
              vote for    NET   Good   Unlikely   opinion
10/25/08 VA      90        9      3        5         2
9/21/08  VA      81       18      5       12         2  

Barack Obama:

Definitely -Chance change mind - No vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion 10/25/08 VA 91 7 3 4 2 9/21/08 VA 82 17 5 12 1

John McCain:

Definitely -Chance change mind - No vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion 10/25/08 VA 89 10 4 6 2 9/21/08 VA 80 18 5 13 2 9/7/08 Nat. 80 19 8 11 2

4. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you voted for president in any year before this 2008 election, or is this the first year you'll be voting for president?

              Voted before   First year voting   No opinion
10/25/08 VA        86               14                 0

5. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Now, turning to the U.S. Senate election in Virginia, if the 2008 election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, would you vote for {(Mark Warner, the Democratic candidate), (Jim Gilmore, the Republican candidate)}, {(Gail Parker, the Independent Green candidate), or (William Redpath, the Libertarian candidate)}?

NET LEANED VOTE - LIKELY VOTERS

Other None Would not No Warner Gilmore Parker Redpath (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 10/25/08 VA 61 31 2 1 1 1 * 3 9/21/08 VA 61 31 1 1 * 1 1 5

NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS

Other None Would not No Warner Gilmore Parker Redpath (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 10/25/08 VA 62 29 2 1 * 1 1 4 9/21/08 VA 61 29 2 1 * 1 1 5

Compare to:

And thinking about the NOVEMBER 2008 U.S. Senate race, if the election were being held today and the candidates were (Mark Warner, the Democrat), and (Jim Gilmore, the Republican), for whom would you vote? Which candidate are you leaning toward?

NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS

Mark Jim Other Neither No Warner Gilmore (vol.) (vol.) opin. 10/8/07 VA 61 32 * 2 4

6. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

              -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------     No   
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
10/25/08 VA   27       10         17      71       16         55         2
10/11/08 Nat. 24        6         18      73       15         58         3

7. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) What [was/is] the SINGLE most important issue in your choice for president: (The economy), (the war in Iraq), (terrorism), (energy policy), (health care), or something else?

                                                    Energy   Health   Something   No 
              Economy    Iraq    Terrorism   policy    care       else     op.
10/25/08 VA     51        12         6          6        9         15       1
10/25/08 Nat.*  52         8         6          5       11         18       1

*National data among likely voters.

8. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of [NAME]? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

10/25/08 - Summary Table

------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin. a. Barack Obama 67 46 21 30 8 22 3 b. John McCain 53 26 27 45 17 28 2 c. Sarah Palin 46 25 20 50 11 39 4

Trend:

a. Barack Obama

------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 10/25/08 VA 67 46 21 30 8 22 3 10/23/08 Nat.* 63 47 16 34 7 27 3

*National data among likely voters.

b. John McCain

10/25/08 VA 53 26 27 45 17 28 2 10/23/08 Nat.* 55 29 26 42 11 30 3

*National data among likely voters.

c. Sarah Palin

10/25/08 VA 46 25 20 50 11 39 4 9/21/08 VA 53 33 20 38 13 25 9 10/23/08 Nat.* 46 28 18 51 11 40 3

*National data among likely voters.

9. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle [ITEM] - (Obama) or (McCain)?

10/25/08 - Summary Table*

Both Neither No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion a. The economy 53 39 2 5 2 b. The war in Iraq 48 48 * 3 1 c. Taxes 54 39 1 3 3 d. The U.S. campaign against terrorism 44 47 3 2 3 e. Health care 57 31 2 5 5

*Full sample asked item a, half sample asked items b-c, other half sample asked items d-e.

Trend where available:

a. The economy

Both Neither No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion 10/25/08 VA 53 39 2 5 2 9/21/08 VA 51 41 1 5 1 10/25/08 Nat.* 53 42 * 3 2

*National data among likely voters.

b. The war in Iraq

10/25/08 VA 48 48 * 3 1 9/21/08 VA 46 47 0 4 3 10/23/08 Nat.* 49 49 * 1 *

*National data among likely voters.

c. Taxes

10/25/08 VA 54 39 1 3 3 10/21/08 Nat.* 51 43 1 3 2

*National data among likely voters.

d. The U.S. campaign against terrorism

10/25/08 VA 44 47 3 2 3 9/21/08 VA 42 52 1 2 2 10/23/08 Nat.* 47 49 1 2 1

*National data among likely voters.

e. No trend.

10. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think [ITEM] - (Obama) or (McCain)?

10/25/08 - Summary Table*

Both Neither No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion a. would do more to bring needed change to Washington 59 32 1 5 3 b. better understands the economic problems people in this country are having 56 33 2 7 2 c. is more honest and trustworthy 53 33 6 5 2 d. is the stronger leader 48 48 1 1 1

*Full sample asked items a-b, half sample asked item c, other half sample asked item d.

Trend where available:

a. would do more to bring needed change to Washington

Both Neither No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion 10/25/08 VA 59 32 1 5 3 9/21/08 VA 56 36 1 4 2 10/19/08 Nat.* 56 35 1 4 2

*National data among likely voters.

b. better understands the economic problems people in this country are having

10/25/08 VA 56 33 2 7 2 9/21/08 VA 56 33 2 8 2 10/19/08 Nat.* 55 36 2 6 2

*National data among likely voters.

c. is more honest and trustworthy

10/25/08 VA 53 33 6 5 2 9/21/08 VA 43 41 7 6 4 10/19/08 Nat.* 48 40 5 5 2

*National data among likely voters.

d. is the stronger leader

10/25/08 VA 48 48 1 1 1 9/21/08 VA 49 46 2 2 1 10/19/08 Nat.* 51 43 2 2 2

*National data among likely voters.

11. (ASKED OF REGISTERED OBAMA VOTERS) Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about Obama - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

              

10/25/08 - Summary Table - Among Leaned Obama/McCain Supporters

--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion a. Obama 97 70 28 3 2 * 0 b. McCain 88 39 49 12 10 2 *

Trend:

a. Obama

--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion 10/25/08 VA 97 70 28 3 2 * 0 9/21/08 VA 96 64 32 4 4 0 * 10/25/08 Nat.* 97 68 29 3 3 1 *

*National data among likely voters.

b. McCain

--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion 10/25/08 VA 88 39 49 12 10 2 * 9/21/08 VA 91 45 46 9 8 1 0 10/25/08 Nat.* 86 38 48 14 11 3 *

*National data among likely voters.

12. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Please tell me whether the following statements apply to Obama, or not?

a. He would be a good commander-in-chief of the military

Yes No No opinion 10/25/08 VA 50 47 3 9/21/08 VA 51 45 4

13. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If McCain were elected president, do you think he'd (mainly lead the country in a new direction), or (mainly continue in George W. Bush's direction)?

                New        Same        No
             direction   direction   opinion
10/25/08 VA     46          53          1 
9/21/08  VA     44          53          3
10/22/08 Nat.*  45          52          3

*National data among likely voters.

14. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If elected, [ITEM]. If you honestly assessed yourself, is that something with which you're entirely comfortable, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable?

10/25/08 - Summary Table

------ Comfortable ------ ----- Uncomfortable ----- No NET Entirely Somewhat NET Somewhat Entirely op. a. McCain would take office at age 72 51 33 18 48 23 25 1 b. Obama would be the first African- American president 89 77 12 11 5 6 1

a. McCain would take office at age 72

------ Comfortable ------ ----- Uncomfortable ----- No NET Entirely Somewhat NET Somewhat Entirely op. 10/25/08 VA 51 33 18 48 23 25 1 10/22/08 Nat.* 50 30 20 49 23 26 1

*National data among likely voters.

b. Obama would be the first African-American president

------ Comfortable ------ ----- Uncomfortable ----- No NET Entirely Somewhat NET Somewhat Entirely op. 10/25/08 VA 89 77 12 11 5 6 1 10/22/08 Nat.* 90 76 14 8 3 5 2

*National data among likely voters.

15. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you think [NAME]'s views on most issues are too (liberal) for you, too (conservative) for you, or just about right?

10/25/08 - Summary Table

Too Too Just about No liberal conservative right opinion a. Mark Warner 20 4 64 11 b. Jim Gilmore 7 32 38 23

Trend:

a. Mark Warner

Too Too Just about No liberal conservative right opinion 10/25/08 VA 20 4 64 11 9/21/08 VA 21 5 61 12

b. Jim Gilmore

10/25/08 VA 7 32 38 23 9/21/08 VA 9 31 39 21

16. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the [CANDIDATE] campaign, either by phone or in-person, asking you for your support, or not? How about by a representative of the [NEXT CANDIDATE] campaign?

10/25/08 - Summary Table

Yes No No opinion a. Obama 48 52 1 b. McCain 31 68 1

Trend:

a. Obama

Yes No No opinion 10/25/08 VA 48 52 1 10/22/08 Nat.* 21 78 1 10/5/08 OH 37 62 *

*National data among likely voters.

b. McCain

10/25/08 VA 31 68 1 10/22/08 Nat.* 14 85 1 10/5/08 OH 27 73 1

*National data among likely voters.

17. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you personally received any e-mail or text messages from the [CANDIDATE] campaign asking you for your support, or not? How about by a representative of the [NEXT CANDIDATE] campaign?

10/25/08 - Summary Table

Yes No No opinion a. Obama 22 78 * b. McCain 15 85 *

Trend:

a. Obama

Yes No No opinion 10/25/08 VA 22 78 * 10/22/08 Nat.* 16 83 1 10/5/08 OH 17 82 1

*National data among likely voters.

b. McCain

10/25/08 VA 15 85 * 10/22/08 Nat.* 10 89 * 10/5/08 OH 12 87 1

*National data among likely voters.

16-17 NET. Contacted in-person, by phone, e-mail or text message.

10/25/08 - Summary Table

--------------Contacted-------------- In-person E-mail NET /phone only /text only Both Not contacted a. Obama 52 30 4 17 48 b. McCain 38 24 7 7 62

Trend:

a. Obama

--------------Contacted-------------- In-person E-mail NET /phone only /text only Both Not contacted 10/25/08 VA 52 30 4 17 48 10/22/08 Nat.* 30 13 9 8 70 10/5/08 OH 43 25 5 12 57

*National data among likely voters.

b. McCain

--------------Contacted-------------- In-person E-mail NET /phone only /text only Both Not contacted 10/25/08 VA 38 24 7 7 62 10/22/08 Nat.* 21 11 6 4 79 10/5/08 OH 33 22 7 5 67

*National data among likely voters.

901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?

                                                                   ---Non-Partisans--
                                                                   Lean   Lean    No
            Democrat   Republican   Independent   Other   No op.   Dem.   Rep.   Lean
10/25/08 LV    35          29            32         4       *       13     14      8 9/21/08  LV    33          28            34         5       1       15     16      8 

908a. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                                                     Don't think in      No
            Liberal    Moderate    Conservative    those terms (vol.)    op.
10/25/08 LV    19         45            33                  2             1
9/21/08  LV    21         46            30                  2             1

911z. Aside from weddings and funerals, how often if ever do you attend religious services: at least once a week, almost every week, about once a month, less often than that, or never?

             At least 1  Once or twice  A few times  
              per week     per month      a year     Seldom   Never   No op.
10/25/08 L      42           16            20         14        8      *

912. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTER) Are you, or is anyone in your household, a military veteran?

             ------------------ Yes ------------------
                  Resp  Other HH      Both resp and
             NET   is   member is   other HH member are   No   No op. 
10/25/08 LV  33    17      16                1            66     0
9/21/08  LV  38    18      17                2            62     0

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