Washington Post Poll
This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 22-25, 2008, among a random sample of 1,026 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia, including 902 registered voters and 784 likely voters. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points; it is 3.5 points for likely voters and larger for subgroups. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
10/25/08 VA RV 92 62 30 7 5 2 1
9/21/08 VA RV 93 58 35 7 6 1 *
2. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think Already
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No
to vote vote 50/50 that (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/25/08 VA 88 4 2 1 1 5 0
9/21/08 VA 88 6 5 2 * NA *
3. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans), for whom would you vote?
NET LEANED VOTE - LIKELY VOTERS
Other Neither No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion 10/25/08 VA 52 44 1 * 3 9/21/08 VA 49 46 * 2 3 10/25/08 Nat. 52 45 1 * 2NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS
Other Neither Would not No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion 10/25/08 VA 52 41 1 2 1 4 9/21/08 VA 50 44 * 2 1 3 10/25/08 Nat.* 51 44 1 * * 3*National comparisions from Post-ABC daily tracking poll
3b. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Would you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a GOOD CHANCE you'll change your mind, or would you say it's PRETTY UNLIKELY?
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/25/08 VA 90 9 3 5 2
9/21/08 VA 81 18 5 12 2
Barack Obama:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/25/08 VA 91 7 3 4 2
9/21/08 VA 82 17 5 12 1
John McCain:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/25/08 VA 89 10 4 6 2
9/21/08 VA 80 18 5 13 2
9/7/08 Nat. 80 19 8 11 2
4. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you voted for president in any year before this 2008 election, or is this the first year you'll be voting for president?
Voted before First year voting No opinion
10/25/08 VA 86 14 0
5. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Now, turning to the U.S. Senate election in Virginia, if the 2008 election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, would you vote for {(Mark Warner, the Democratic candidate), (Jim Gilmore, the Republican candidate)}, {(Gail Parker, the Independent Green candidate), or (William Redpath, the Libertarian candidate)}?
NET LEANED VOTE - LIKELY VOTERS
Other None Would not No Warner Gilmore Parker Redpath (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 10/25/08 VA 61 31 2 1 1 1 * 3 9/21/08 VA 61 31 1 1 * 1 1 5NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS
Other None Would not No Warner Gilmore Parker Redpath (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 10/25/08 VA 62 29 2 1 * 1 1 4 9/21/08 VA 61 29 2 1 * 1 1 5Compare to:
And thinking about the NOVEMBER 2008 U.S. Senate race, if the election were being held today and the candidates were (Mark Warner, the Democrat), and (Jim Gilmore, the Republican), for whom would you vote? Which candidate are you leaning toward?
NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS
Mark Jim Other Neither No Warner Gilmore (vol.) (vol.) opin. 10/8/07 VA 61 32 * 2 4
6. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/25/08 VA 27 10 17 71 16 55 2
10/11/08 Nat. 24 6 18 73 15 58 3
7. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) What [was/is] the SINGLE most important issue in your choice for president: (The economy), (the war in Iraq), (terrorism), (energy policy), (health care), or something else?
Energy Health Something No
Economy Iraq Terrorism policy care else op.
10/25/08 VA 51 12 6 6 9 15 1
10/25/08 Nat.* 52 8 6 5 11 18 1
*National data among likely voters.
8. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of [NAME]? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
10/25/08 - Summary Table
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin. a. Barack Obama 67 46 21 30 8 22 3 b. John McCain 53 26 27 45 17 28 2 c. Sarah Palin 46 25 20 50 11 39 4Trend:
a. Barack Obama
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 10/25/08 VA 67 46 21 30 8 22 3 10/23/08 Nat.* 63 47 16 34 7 27 3*National data among likely voters.
b. John McCain
10/25/08 VA 53 26 27 45 17 28 2 10/23/08 Nat.* 55 29 26 42 11 30 3*National data among likely voters.
c. Sarah Palin
10/25/08 VA 46 25 20 50 11 39 4 9/21/08 VA 53 33 20 38 13 25 9 10/23/08 Nat.* 46 28 18 51 11 40 3*National data among likely voters.
9. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle [ITEM] - (Obama) or (McCain)?
10/25/08 - Summary Table*
Both Neither No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion a. The economy 53 39 2 5 2 b. The war in Iraq 48 48 * 3 1 c. Taxes 54 39 1 3 3 d. The U.S. campaign against terrorism 44 47 3 2 3 e. Health care 57 31 2 5 5*Full sample asked item a, half sample asked items b-c, other half sample asked items d-e.
Trend where available:
a. The economy
Both Neither No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion 10/25/08 VA 53 39 2 5 2 9/21/08 VA 51 41 1 5 1 10/25/08 Nat.* 53 42 * 3 2*National data among likely voters.
b. The war in Iraq
10/25/08 VA 48 48 * 3 1 9/21/08 VA 46 47 0 4 3 10/23/08 Nat.* 49 49 * 1 **National data among likely voters.
c. Taxes
10/25/08 VA 54 39 1 3 3 10/21/08 Nat.* 51 43 1 3 2*National data among likely voters.
d. The U.S. campaign against terrorism
10/25/08 VA 44 47 3 2 3 9/21/08 VA 42 52 1 2 2 10/23/08 Nat.* 47 49 1 2 1*National data among likely voters.
e. No trend.
10. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think [ITEM] - (Obama) or (McCain)?
10/25/08 - Summary Table*
Both Neither No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion a. would do more to bring needed change to Washington 59 32 1 5 3 b. better understands the economic problems people in this country are having 56 33 2 7 2 c. is more honest and trustworthy 53 33 6 5 2 d. is the stronger leader 48 48 1 1 1*Full sample asked items a-b, half sample asked item c, other half sample asked item d.
Trend where available:
a. would do more to bring needed change to Washington
Both Neither No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion 10/25/08 VA 59 32 1 5 3 9/21/08 VA 56 36 1 4 2 10/19/08 Nat.* 56 35 1 4 2*National data among likely voters.
b. better understands the economic problems people in this country are having
10/25/08 VA 56 33 2 7 2 9/21/08 VA 56 33 2 8 2 10/19/08 Nat.* 55 36 2 6 2*National data among likely voters.
c. is more honest and trustworthy
10/25/08 VA 53 33 6 5 2 9/21/08 VA 43 41 7 6 4 10/19/08 Nat.* 48 40 5 5 2*National data among likely voters.
d. is the stronger leader
10/25/08 VA 48 48 1 1 1 9/21/08 VA 49 46 2 2 1 10/19/08 Nat.* 51 43 2 2 2*National data among likely voters.
11. (ASKED OF REGISTERED OBAMA VOTERS) Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about Obama - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
10/25/08 - Summary Table - Among Leaned Obama/McCain Supporters
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
a. Obama 97 70 28 3 2 * 0
b. McCain 88 39 49 12 10 2 *
Trend:
a. Obama
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
10/25/08 VA 97 70 28 3 2 * 0
9/21/08 VA 96 64 32 4 4 0 *
10/25/08 Nat.* 97 68 29 3 3 1 *
*National data among likely voters.
b. McCain
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
10/25/08 VA 88 39 49 12 10 2 *
9/21/08 VA 91 45 46 9 8 1 0
10/25/08 Nat.* 86 38 48 14 11 3 *
*National data among likely voters.
12. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Please tell me whether the following statements apply to Obama, or not?
a. He would be a good commander-in-chief of the military
Yes No No opinion 10/25/08 VA 50 47 3 9/21/08 VA 51 45 4
13. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If McCain were elected president, do you think he'd (mainly lead the country in a new direction), or (mainly continue in George W. Bush's direction)?
New Same No
direction direction opinion
10/25/08 VA 46 53 1
9/21/08 VA 44 53 3
10/22/08 Nat.* 45 52 3
*National data among likely voters.
14. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If elected, [ITEM]. If you honestly assessed yourself, is that something with which you're entirely comfortable, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable?
10/25/08 - Summary Table
------ Comfortable ------ ----- Uncomfortable ----- No NET Entirely Somewhat NET Somewhat Entirely op. a. McCain would take office at age 72 51 33 18 48 23 25 1 b. Obama would be the first African- American president 89 77 12 11 5 6 1a. McCain would take office at age 72
------ Comfortable ------ ----- Uncomfortable ----- No NET Entirely Somewhat NET Somewhat Entirely op. 10/25/08 VA 51 33 18 48 23 25 1 10/22/08 Nat.* 50 30 20 49 23 26 1*National data among likely voters.
b. Obama would be the first African-American president
------ Comfortable ------ ----- Uncomfortable ----- No NET Entirely Somewhat NET Somewhat Entirely op. 10/25/08 VA 89 77 12 11 5 6 1 10/22/08 Nat.* 90 76 14 8 3 5 2*National data among likely voters.
15. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you think [NAME]'s views on most issues are too (liberal) for you, too (conservative) for you, or just about right?
10/25/08 - Summary Table
Too Too Just about No liberal conservative right opinion a. Mark Warner 20 4 64 11 b. Jim Gilmore 7 32 38 23Trend:
a. Mark Warner
Too Too Just about No liberal conservative right opinion 10/25/08 VA 20 4 64 11 9/21/08 VA 21 5 61 12b. Jim Gilmore
10/25/08 VA 7 32 38 23 9/21/08 VA 9 31 39 21
16. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the [CANDIDATE] campaign, either by phone or in-person, asking you for your support, or not? How about by a representative of the [NEXT CANDIDATE] campaign?
10/25/08 - Summary Table
Yes No No opinion a. Obama 48 52 1 b. McCain 31 68 1Trend:
a. Obama
Yes No No opinion 10/25/08 VA 48 52 1 10/22/08 Nat.* 21 78 1 10/5/08 OH 37 62 **National data among likely voters.
b. McCain
10/25/08 VA 31 68 1 10/22/08 Nat.* 14 85 1 10/5/08 OH 27 73 1*National data among likely voters.
17. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you personally received any e-mail or text messages from the [CANDIDATE] campaign asking you for your support, or not? How about by a representative of the [NEXT CANDIDATE] campaign?
10/25/08 - Summary Table
Yes No No opinion a. Obama 22 78 * b. McCain 15 85 *Trend:
a. Obama
Yes No No opinion 10/25/08 VA 22 78 * 10/22/08 Nat.* 16 83 1 10/5/08 OH 17 82 1*National data among likely voters.
b. McCain
10/25/08 VA 15 85 * 10/22/08 Nat.* 10 89 * 10/5/08 OH 12 87 1*National data among likely voters.
16-17 NET. Contacted in-person, by phone, e-mail or text message.
10/25/08 - Summary Table
--------------Contacted-------------- In-person E-mail NET /phone only /text only Both Not contacted a. Obama 52 30 4 17 48 b. McCain 38 24 7 7 62Trend:
a. Obama
--------------Contacted-------------- In-person E-mail NET /phone only /text only Both Not contacted 10/25/08 VA 52 30 4 17 48 10/22/08 Nat.* 30 13 9 8 70 10/5/08 OH 43 25 5 12 57*National data among likely voters.
b. McCain
--------------Contacted-------------- In-person E-mail NET /phone only /text only Both Not contacted 10/25/08 VA 38 24 7 7 62 10/22/08 Nat.* 21 11 6 4 79 10/5/08 OH 33 22 7 5 67*National data among likely voters.
901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?
---Non-Partisans--
Lean Lean No
Democrat Republican Independent Other No op. Dem. Rep. Lean
10/25/08 LV 35 29 32 4 * 13 14 8 9/21/08 LV 33 28 34 5 1 15 16 8
908a. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Don't think in No
Liberal Moderate Conservative those terms (vol.) op.
10/25/08 LV 19 45 33 2 1
9/21/08 LV 21 46 30 2 1
911z. Aside from weddings and funerals, how often if ever do you attend religious services: at least once a week, almost every week, about once a month, less often than that, or never?
At least 1 Once or twice A few times
per week per month a year Seldom Never No op.
10/25/08 L 42 16 20 14 8 *
912. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTER) Are you, or is anyone in your household, a military veteran?
------------------ Yes ------------------
Resp Other HH Both resp and
NET is member is other HH member are No No op.
10/25/08 LV 33 17 16 1 66 0
9/21/08 LV 38 18 17 2 62 0
