Washington Post Poll

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 16-20, 2008, among a random sample of 1,005 adults in the state of Maryland, including additional interviews with those living in Baltimore City (total=149) and Prince George's (total=181) and Anne Arundel (total=227) counties. People from these geographies are not over-represented in the statewide results. A total of 885 registered voters were interviewed, and the results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. What is the single biggest issue facing Maryland today?

                                    
                       10/20/08   10/22/07
                          RV         RV
Economy/jobs              63          9
Budget/taxes NET          11         27 
   Slot machines           3          8
   State budget/deficit    4          3
   Taxes                   4         16
Education                  7         12
Health care                3          7
Crime                      2         12
Energy issues/gas
 prices                    2          2
Housing/mortgages/
 affordable housing        1          2
Environment                1          4
Ethics/honesty/
 corruption in
 government                1          1
Drugs                      *          3
Growth/Over
 Development               *          2
Guns/Gun control           *          *
Immigration/illegal
 immigration               *          3
Iraq/War in Iraq           *          1
Terrorism/national
 Security                  *          *
Transportation/
 traffic/roads and
 transit                   *          4
Abortion                   0          *
Other                      3          4
None                       1          1
DK/No opinion              4          6

2. Do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

                 Right direction     Wrong track     No opinion
10/20/08 RV            31                63                6
10/22/07 RV            45                48                7
10/26/06 LV            57                39                5
6/25/06  RV            44                50                6
1/7/04   RV            56                36                8
10/24/02 LV            42                51                7
10/22/98 RV            54                36               10
6/17/98  All           53                34               13
6/17/98  LV            56                32               11
6/17/98  RV
12/19/93 All           33                56               11

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Martin O'Malley is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

              -------- Approve --------    ------- Disapprove ------    No
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat    NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin
10/20/08 RV   53       14         39       37       16         21       10
10/22/07 RV   51       13         38       39       17         22       11

Compare to:

Bob Ehrlich:

              -------- Approve --------    ------- Disapprove ------    No
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat    NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin.
10/26/06 LV   55       30         25       42       19         23        3
6/25/06  RV   56       21         36       41       21         20        3
1/7/04   RV   64       23         41       29       17         12        8

Parris Glendening:

10/24/02 LV   37        9         29       58       22         37        4
10/22/98 LV   54       16         38       40       21         19        6
6/17/98  LV   55       14         41       36       19         18        9

4. I am going to read you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person, or perhaps you don't know enough to say.

10/20/08 - Summary Table

                        Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
a. Bob Ehrlich             48             30              22
b. Martin O'Malley         56             31              13
c. Anthony Brown           22              6              72
d. Peter Franchot          18             11              71
e. Douglas Gansler         16              8              76

Trend where available:

a. Bob Ehrlich

               Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
10/20/08 RV       48             30              22
10/20/08 LV       50             30              20
10/26/06 LV       56             40               5
6/25/06  RV       55             38               7
1/7/04   RV       68             18              14

b. Martin O'Malley

10/20/08 RV       56             31              13
10/20/08 LV       55             33              12
10/26/06 LV       62             29               8
6/25/06  RV       51             30              19
1/7/04   RV       54             12              34

c. Anthony Brown

10/20/08 RV       22              6              72
10/20/08 LV       23              6              70
10/26/06 LV       25              9              66

d. No trend.

e. No trend.

5. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

                                                    Don't think  Already
             Certain  Probably  Chances  Less than   will vote   voted    No
             to vote    vote     50/50     50/50       (vol.)    (vol.)   op.
10/20/08 RV    91         5        2         *           *         1       *
10/26/06* RV   72        13        7         4           1         1       1

*upcoming election for governor and U.S. Senator this November

6. How closely are you following news about Question Two on the state ballot, the constitutional amendment about slot machines in Maryland - very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

              ----- Closely ------    ------- Not Closely ------     No
              NET    Very    Smwht    NET   Not too   Not at all     op
10/20/08 RV   68      28      40      31      17          14          1

7/7a. As you may know, Question TWO is a constitutional amendment titled "Authorizing Video Lottery Terminals - Slot Machines - to Fund Education." It allows the state to issue licenses for up to five slot machine locations to raise revenue PRIMARILY for public schools, including construction and improvements. No more than 15,000 slot machines would be permitted in the state, and they would be allowed at no more than one location in Anne Arundel, Cecil, Worcester and Allegany counties and Baltimore City. No expansion of commercial gaming would be allowed, unless approved by voter referendum. If the election were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST slot machines in Maryland? If NOT FOR/AGAINST: Which way are you leaning?

Net Leaned For/Against:

            -------- For --------  ------ Against ------           Would
                            Not           Not                       not   No
            NET  Strngly  strngly  NET  strngly  Strngly  Neither  vote   op.
10/20/08 LV 62     46       16     36      9        27       *       1     1
10/20/08 RV 63     45       18     35      9        26       *       1     1

Compare to:

The new plan uses revenue increases to help reduce the deficit. For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal. Allowing slot-machine gambling at a limited number of race-tracks and other locations in Maryland. Do you favor/oppose strongly or somewhat?

              ------- Favor -------      ------- Oppose ------       No   
              NET   Strongly   Smwht     NET   Smwht   Strongly     opin.
10/22/07 RV   68       45       23       31      9        22          1 
10/22/07      68       44       24       30     10        21          2 

Would you favor or oppose allowing slot-machine gambling at horse-racing tracks in Maryland?

            Favor     Oppose     No opinion
6/25/06 RV   60         36             4
1/7/04 RV    58         38             4
1/7/04 ALL   59         38             3

Some people are discussing a proposal to allow slot-machine gambling at horse-racing tracks in Maryland. Would you favor or oppose this?

                     Favor    Oppose    No opinion
6/18/98               55       41            3
6/18/98 LV            49       47            4

8. (IF AGAINST SLOT MACHINES, Q8/Q8a) What is the main reason you oppose allowing slot machines in Maryland?

                                  10/20/08   10/22/07
                                     RV         RV
Gambling becomes an addiction/
 brings out worst in people          16         20
Gambling is wrong/immoral            16         17
Hurts the poor/bad for people
 with low incomes                    14         17
Crime/bad element/degrades area      13         18
Bad way to solve budget deficit       7          8
Not a good source of revenue          7          4
Corruption                            5          2
Money won't go to schools/where
 they say it will                     5 
Traffic/traffic congestion            *          1
Other                                13         12
No opinion                            3          2

9. As you may know, the state projects a large budget deficit next year. Overall do you think the budget situation is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, not much of a problem or not a problem for the people of Maryland today?

              ----- Problem -----      ----- No Problem -----        No
              NET   Big   Somewhat     NET   Not much   At all     opinion
10/20/08  RV  97    76       21         2        1         1          1
10/22/07* RV  94    61       33         5        3         2          1
*10/22/07: "the state projects a one point seven billion dollar budget deficit"

10. If the slots plan passes, do think it would help the state's budget situation a great deal, somewhat, not much or not at all?

              ------- Help -------   --------- Not Help --------
                     Great                                         No
              NET    deal    Smwht   NET   Not much   Not at all   op.
10/20/08 RV   69      22      47     29       18          11        2

11. The governor and slot machine supporters have warned the state budget would be in deeper trouble if the slot machines are not approved by the voters. Others say allowing slots would wind up costing more money due to increasing traffic, crime and other social problems, such as gambling addiction. If these machines are NOT approved, how concerned, if at all, are you that [ITEM] - very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned?

10/20/08 - Summary Table

---- Concerned --- ---- Not Concerned --- No NET Very Smwht NET Not too At all opinion a. the state will cut back plans to provide additional new money to the public schools 78 47 31 21 14 7 1 b. the state will make cuts in other state programs, such as higher education and health care for lower-income residents 81 51 30 18 13 5 1 c. the state will have to raise taxes significantly 83 56 27 16 10 6 1 d. the state will cut funding to local governments 71 33 38 28 19 9 1

Trend where available:

a. the state will cut back plans to provide additional new money to the public schools

                   --- Concerned ---      --- Not Concerned ---        No
                   NET   Very   Smwht     NET   Not too   At all     opinion
10/20/08 RV        78     47     31       21      14         7          1
10/22/07* RV       84     64     20       15      10         6          1
*10/22/07: "the state will cancel plans to provide additional new money to the public schools"

b. the state will make cuts in other state programs, such as higher education and health care for lower-income residents

10/20/08 RV        81     51     30       18       13        5          1
10/22/07 RV        86     64     22       14        9        5          *

c. The state will have to raise taxes significantly

            
10/20/08 RV        83     56     27       16      10         6          1
10/22/07 RV        89     64     25       10       7         3          1

d. the state will cut funding to local governments

10/20/08 RV        71     33     38       28      19         9          1
10/22/07* RV       76     40     36       23      17         6          1

*10/22/07: "the state will cut funding to county governments"

12. (IF FOR SLOT MACHINES, Q9/Q9a) Would you favor or oppose allowing slot machines in the county where you live?

               Favor     Oppose     No opinion
10/20/08 RV     82         16             2
10/22/07 RV     87         12             1

13. In the past two years, have you ever gone to Delaware, Pennsylvania or West Virginia to play the slot machines, or not?

               Yes     No     No opinion
10/20/08 RV    27      73           *
10/22/07 RV    26      74           0
1/07/04* RV    25      75           0

*Question did not include Pennsylvania

14. If there were slot machines here in Maryland, do you think you would play: often, sometimes, hardly ever or never?

              -------- Play --------      ------- Won't Play ------        No
              NET   Often   Sometimes     NET   Hardly ever   Never     opinion
10/20/08 RV   29      5         25        71         27         44         *
10/27/07 RV   33      6         27        67         24         43         *
1/07/04  RV   31      7         24        69         27         42         0

15. Overall, would you say slot machines have a (positive) or (negative) impact on the communities where they are located?

              ----- Positive ------   ----- Negative ------     No       No
              NET   Very   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Very   impact   opinion
10/20/08 RV   39     13       26      47       22       25       6        8

16. How do you feel about [ITEM] - very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried or not worried at all?

10/20/08 - Summary Table

                           ----- Worried ----   ----- Not worried ----    No
                           NET   Very   Smwt.   NET   Not too   At all   opin.
a. The direction of the 
   nation's economy over 
   the next few years      90     56      34     9        6        3       1
b. Your own family's
   financial situation     65     24      41    34       23       12       *

Compare to national:

a. The direction of the nation's economy over the next few years

              ----- Worried ----   ----- Not worried ----     No
              NET   Very   Smwt.   NET   Not too   At all   opinion
10/19/08 LV   85     44      42    14        9        5        1
10/11/08 RV   88     49      40    11        8        3        1

b. Your own family's financial situation

10/19/08 LV   66     24      43    33       21       12        *
10/11/08 RV   68     25      43    32       22       11        *

17/17a. If the candidates for Maryland governor in 2010 are: (Martin O'Malley, the Democrat) and (Bob Ehrlich, the Republican); if the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote:
                                    Other    Neither    Would     No
              O'Malley   Ehrlich   (vol.)    (vol.)    not vote   op.
10/20/08 RV      57        36        *         1          1        5
2006 Election    53        46        1        N/A        N/A      N/A

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