The Washington Post
Sunday, November 5, 2000; Page B1

The tightest election in 40 years? Not according to many of the educated guessers in the 10th Outlook Crystal Ball contest. At our invitation, these pundits and students of politics put their predictions in print – and offered "hot hunches" in other races. We'll salute the winner online and in next Sunday's paper, and award – what else? A crystal ball.

	PRESIDENT						SENATE		HOUSE			N.Y. SENATE
	Pct. of Popular Vote				Electoral Vote		No. of Seats		No. of Seats			Winner
	Bush	Gore	Nader	Buchanan & Others	Bush	Gore	GOP	Dem.	GOP	Dem.	Ind.	Clinton	Lazio
David Bositis Analyst, Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies	45%	47%	5%	3%	258	280	51	49	216	217	2	X
William Kristol Editor, the Weekly Standard	46%	47%	6%	1%	221	317	53	47	223	210	2		X
Celinda Lake Democratic pollster, Lake Snell Perry & Assoc.	47%	48%	4%	1%	265	273	50	50*	216	217	2	X
Michael Lewis-Beck University of Iowa political science professor co-creator of a tested forecasting model	44%	53%	2%	1%	140	398	48	52	198	233	4	X
Mary Matalin co-host, CNN's "Crossfire"	52%	44%	4%	0%	359	179	54	46	219	214	2		X
Christopher Matthews host, MSNBC's "Hardball With Chris Matthews"	47%	46%	5%	2%	267	271	52	48	216	217	2	X
Peggy Noonan columnist/author	52%	43%	3%	2%	411	127	55	45	229	205	1		X
William Saletan political reporter, Slate magazine	47%	45%	6%	2%	254	284	51	49	218	215	2	X
Tony Snow host, Fox's "News Roundtable"	50%	45%	4%	1%	343	195	52	48	220	215	0		X
Ben Stein host, "Win Ben Stein's Money"	50%	45%	4%	1%	280	258	52	48	212	222	1		X
Amy Walter political reporter, the Cook Report	49%	45%	4%	2%	283	255	51	49	219	214	2	X
Armstrong Williams host, Talk America Radio's "The Right Side With Armstrong Williams"	49%	43%	5%	3%	284	254	55	45	230	202	3		X
Herndon High School students in AP government classes	48%	46%	4%	2%	288	250	53	47	218	215	2	X
Montgomery Blair High School 10th-grade communication arts class	46.4%	43.9%	4.9%	4.8%	297	241	54	46	216	217	2	X

* Control goes to the Democrats based on a Gore victory, giving Lieberman the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

NOTE: Current Party splits are as follows: Senate: 54 Republicans, 46 Democrats (34 contests this year). House: 222 Republicans, 209 Democrats, 2 independents, 2 vacancies (one from each party. Data compiled by Monesha Carter, The Washington Post.

Hot Hunches

David Bositis: The late Gov. Mel Carnahan (D) wins; his widow becomes the latest woman in the Senate.

William Kristol: Democrat Jon Corzine wastes a fortune in New Jersey as Bob Franks wins.

Celinda Lake: Female candidates win control of the House for the Democrats.

Michael Lewis-Beck: Progressive Party's Anthony Pollina upsets both Democrat Gov. Howard Dean and Republican Ruth Dwyer for Vermont Governor.

Mary Matalin: Voters will cite Bush's tax relief as their No. 2 reason for his victory; restoring dignity to the White House will be No. 1.

Christopher Matthews: Ohio's Jim Traficant (D) will keep his promise to vote for Dennis Hastert for speaker, maintaining GOP control of the House.

Peggy Noonan: In Washington state, Sen. Slade Gorton (R) wins his thought-to-be-close race by six to eight points.

William Saletan: GOP objections to the Missouri Senate winner requires new VP Lieberman to break a tie to seat Jean Carnahan.

Tony Snow: New Jersey's Jon Corzine becomes the Michael Huffington of 2000.

Ben Stein: Bush will win California.

Amy Walter: All self-financed multimillionaire candidates win in the Senate, lose in House races.

Armstrong Williams: John Carlson defeats Gov. Gary Locke (D) in Washington state.

Herndon High School: Nader Traders back out: Nader misses 5 percent needed for federal matching funds in 2004.

Montgomery Blair High School (the school's entry won our contest in 1998): Family ties don't bind; Bush wins Tennessee.