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Outlook Crystal Ball

The Washington Post
Sunday, November 5, 2000; Page B1

The tightest election in 40 years? Not according to many of the educated guessers in the 10th Outlook Crystal Ball contest. At our invitation, these pundits and students of politics put their predictions in print – and offered "hot hunches" in other races. We'll salute the winner online and in next Sunday's paper, and award – what else? A crystal ball.

 

PRESIDENT

SENATE

HOUSE

N.Y. SENATE

 

Pct. of Popular Vote

Electoral Vote

No. of Seats

No. of Seats

Winner

 

Bush

Gore

Nader

Buchanan
& Others

Bush

Gore

GOP

Dem.

GOP

Dem.

Ind.

Clinton

Lazio

David Bositis
Analyst, Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies

45%

47%

5%

3%

258

280

51

49

216

217

2

X  

William Kristol
Editor, the Weekly Standard

46%

47%

6%

1%

221

317

53

47

223

210

2

  X

Celinda Lake
Democratic pollster, Lake Snell Perry & Assoc.

47%

48%

4%

1%

265

273

50

50*

216

217

2

X  

Michael Lewis-Beck
University of Iowa political science professor co-creator of a tested forecasting model

44%

53%

2%

1%

140

398

48

52

198

233

4

X  

Mary Matalin
co-host, CNN's "Crossfire"

52%

44%

4%

0%

359

179

54

46

219

214

2

  X

Christopher Matthews
host, MSNBC's "Hardball With Chris Matthews"

47%

46%

5%

2%

267

271

52

48

216

217

2

X  

Peggy Noonan
columnist/author

52%

43%

3%

2%

411

127

55

45

229

205

1

  X

William Saletan
political reporter, Slate magazine

47%

45%

6%

2%

254

284

51

49

218

215

2

X  

Tony Snow
host, Fox's "News Roundtable"

50%

45%

4%

1%

343

195

52

48

220

215

0

  X

Ben Stein
host, "Win Ben Stein's Money"

50%

45%

4%

1%

280

258

52

48

212

222

1

  X

Amy Walter
political reporter, the Cook Report

49%

45%

4%

2%

283

255

51

49

219

214

2

X  

Armstrong Williams
host, Talk America Radio's "The Right Side With Armstrong Williams"

49%

43%

5%

3%

284

254

55

45

230

202

3

  X

Herndon High School
students in AP government classes

48%

46%

4%

2%

288

250

53

47

218

215

2

X  

Montgomery Blair High School
10th-grade communication arts class

46.4%

43.9%

4.9%

4.8%

297

241

54

46

216

217

2

X  

* Control goes to the Democrats based on a Gore victory, giving Lieberman the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

NOTE: Current Party splits are as follows: Senate: 54 Republicans, 46 Democrats (34 contests this year). House: 222 Republicans, 209 Democrats, 2 independents, 2 vacancies (one from each party. Data compiled by Monesha Carter, The Washington Post.

Hot Hunches

David Bositis: The late Gov. Mel Carnahan (D) wins; his widow becomes the latest woman in the Senate.

William Kristol: Democrat Jon Corzine wastes a fortune in New Jersey as Bob Franks wins.

Celinda Lake: Female candidates win control of the House for the Democrats.

Michael Lewis-Beck: Progressive Party's Anthony Pollina upsets both Democrat Gov. Howard Dean and Republican Ruth Dwyer for Vermont Governor.

Mary Matalin: Voters will cite Bush's tax relief as their No. 2 reason for his victory; restoring dignity to the White House will be No. 1.

Christopher Matthews: Ohio's Jim Traficant (D) will keep his promise to vote for Dennis Hastert for speaker, maintaining GOP control of the House.

Peggy Noonan: In Washington state, Sen. Slade Gorton (R) wins his thought-to-be-close race by six to eight points.

William Saletan: GOP objections to the Missouri Senate winner requires new VP Lieberman to break a tie to seat Jean Carnahan.

Tony Snow: New Jersey's Jon Corzine becomes the Michael Huffington of 2000.

Ben Stein: Bush will win California.

Amy Walter: All self-financed multimillionaire candidates win in the Senate, lose in House races.

Armstrong Williams: John Carlson defeats Gov. Gary Locke (D) in Washington state.

Herndon High School: Nader Traders back out: Nader misses 5 percent needed for federal matching funds in 2004.

Montgomery Blair High School (the school's entry won our contest in 1998): Family ties don't bind; Bush wins Tennessee.

© 2000 The Washington Post Company



 

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