By Jonas Blank
Congressional Quarterly

Electoral votes: 8

Delegates: 30

Co-chairmen: Rep. Ed Pastor and Janet Napolitano

Hotel: Doubletree Guest Suites Santa Monica (310) 395-3332

1996 Election:
Clinton – 47%
Dole – 44%
Perot – 8%

The conservative-leaning state of Arizona is always a tough fight for the Democratic presidential nominee. And the party's chances may not be helped this year by the meteoric emergence of Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain on the national scene.

Though McCain fell short in his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, he could help bring Arizona's eight electoral votes back to the GOP column if he were to campaign all-out at home for his party's nominee, Texas Gov. George W. Bush.

It is not impossible for the Democrats to carry the state. President Clinton defeated Republican Bob Dole by 47 percent to 44 percent in 1996, with Vice President Al Gore - this year's Democratic presidential standard-bearer - on his ticket.

But Arizona's 55 delegates to the Democratic convention are realistic about Gore's chances in the state. Clinton's victory was the first by a Democratic presidential candidate since Harry S Truman in 1948, with the state producing 1964 Republican presidential nominee Barry Goldwater. Seven of the state's eight members of Congress are Republicans, and Republicans also comprise a plurality of the state's registered voters.

"It's not going to automatically be a win for [Gore]," said Arizona delegate Lorraine Frank, who said that part of Clinton's 1996 success was based on the concerns about Social Security among the state's large constituency of retirees. "Now people don't seem quite as upset about Social Security, and I'm not sure why not," she added.

Overwhelming support from Hispanics, who are 21 percent of the state's population, was another factor that helped Clinton win the state. Arizona Democrats believe that Gore also will enjoy solid support from Hispanics, even though Bush is making an overt bid for support from that constituency.

"I don't think that the numbers of Hispanics who'd vote for Bush will be significant," said delegate Daniel Ortega. "Hispanics are still pretty positive on Gore here," agreed state Democratic Party Chairman Mark Fleisher.

One of the 12 Arizona Hispanic delegates to the Los Angeles convention is the state's lone Democratic congressman, Rep. Ed Pastor. He will co-chair the delegation along with state Attorney General Janet Napolitano.

Other minority-group delegates include six American Indians, four African-Americans and one Asian-American.

The delegation's generational span is perhaps even more impressive. Frank, who is 77 years old, attended her first presidential convention in 1944; this year's will be her eighth. Among the new blood in this year's contingent are DeAnza Valencia, who is 21, and alternate delegate Lawrence Robinson, age 18.

Fleisher and former Gore aide Steve Owens will be the delegation vice chairmen. Also in the delegation are long-shot U.S. House candidates Linda Calvert and David Mendoza. Calvert is challenging Republican Rep. Bob Stump in the 3rd District; Mendoza is seeking the 1st District seat left open by retiring Republican Matt Salmon, to whom he lost by 65 percent to 35 percent as the 1998 Democratic House nominee.

Arizona Democrats made a splash on March 11 by becoming the first state party to allow voting over the Internet in its presidential primary. Though Gore had virtually clinched the nomination with other primary victories four days earlier and easily won in Arizona, the state's proportional distribution rule allotted seven of the 55 delegates to Gore's sole rival, former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley.

Nonetheless, Fleisher said, "This group's going pretty unified. There's no split in this delegation. Everyone supports Gore."

ARIZONA NOTABLES: U.S. Rep. Ed Pastor and state Attorney General Janet Napolitano, the delegation co-chairmen; state Democratic Party Chairman Mark Fleisher; state Democratic National Committeeman Martin Bacal; U.S. House candidates David Mendoza and Linda Calvert.