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Election Forecast: The House

Updated November 5, 2000

The consensus is that the Democrats could pick up several seats in the House, but perhaps not the seven they need to gain control. The Republicans' biggest risk lies in the number of retirements among their ranks – 26 GOP members are not running for reelection compared to the nine Democrats who are leaving after this term.

There are 222 Republicans, 209 Democrats and 2 independents in the House. One Democratic seat and one Republican seat are vacant.

That all said, in 1998 most pundits predicted that Republicans would gain seats. Instead, Democrats picked up five seats. (See the 1998 forecast.)

Predicted Party Gains
Democratic Low Guess
Democratic High Guess
Republican Low Guess
Republican High Guess


Congressional Quarterly
 7 seats

Armstrong Williams, conservative radio host
 8 seats

Amy Walter, political reporter, The Cook Report
 4 seats

Ben Stein, host, "Win Ben Stein's Money"
 12 seats

Tony Snow, host, Fox's "News Roundtable"
 5 seats

William Saletan, reporter, Slate
 5 seats

Peggy Noonan, columnist/author
 5 seats

Christopher Matthews
 7 seats

Mary Matalin, co-host, CNN's "Crossfire"
 4 seats

Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster
 23 seats

Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster
 7 seats

William Kristol, editor, Weekly Standard
 0 seats

David Bostis, analyst, Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies
 7 seats

Morton Kondracke, Fox News Sunday
 1-3 seats

Stuart Rothenberg, newsletter editor
 4-8 seats

Charles Cook, National Journal
 5-9 seats

Ken Rudin, NPR political editor
 2 seats

House Race Hotline
 2-5 seats

© 2000 The Washington Post Company

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