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Election Forecast: The House

Updated November 5, 2000

The consensus is that the Democrats could pick up several seats in the House, but perhaps not the seven they need to gain control. The Republicans' biggest risk lies in the number of retirements among their ranks – 26 GOP members are not running for reelection compared to the nine Democrats who are leaving after this term.

There are 222 Republicans, 209 Democrats and 2 independents in the House. One Democratic seat and one Republican seat are vacant.

That all said, in 1998 most pundits predicted that Republicans would gain seats. Instead, Democrats picked up five seats. (See the 1998 forecast.)

Predicted Party Gains
Democratic Low Guess
Democratic High Guess
Republican Low Guess
Republican High Guess

scale

Congressional Quarterly
 7 seats


Armstrong Williams, conservative radio host
 8 seats


Amy Walter, political reporter, The Cook Report
 4 seats


Ben Stein, host, "Win Ben Stein's Money"
 12 seats


Tony Snow, host, Fox's "News Roundtable"
 5 seats


William Saletan, reporter, Slate
 5 seats


Peggy Noonan, columnist/author
 5 seats


Christopher Matthews
 7 seats


Mary Matalin, co-host, CNN's "Crossfire"
 4 seats


Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster
 23 seats


Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster
 7 seats


William Kristol, editor, Weekly Standard
 0 seats


David Bostis, analyst, Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies
 7 seats


Morton Kondracke, Fox News Sunday
 1-3 seats


Stuart Rothenberg, newsletter editor
 4-8 seats


Charles Cook, National Journal
 5-9 seats


Ken Rudin, NPR political editor
 2 seats


House Race Hotline
 2-5 seats


© 2000 The Washington Post Company


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