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By Charles Babington
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 17, 2000; 12:20 PM

Once again the death of a prominent politician has reshaped the battle to control the Senate, this time making even slimmer the Democrats' already narrow hopes of regaining the majority.

Virtually every scenario that envisioned a Democratic takeover of the Senate counted on Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan ousting freshman Republican Sen. John Ashcroft in their tightly contested battle. Carnahan's death in a plane crash last night removes that possibility (although Carnahan's name remains on the ballot, which conceivably could cause a legal dilemma. More on that in a moment).

In some respects, Carnahan's death counterbalances the death in July of Paul Coverdell, the Republican senator from Georgia who was replaced by Democrat Zell Miller. The appointment of Miller-who's expected to win the seat outright in next month's election-narrowed the GOP margin in the Senate to eight, 54 to 46.

That heightened Democratic hopes of recapturing the Senate majority in November. Still, party activists acknowledged that virtually every break would have to go their way. This scenario required that Democrats retain nearly every seat they now hold-although at least two are in peril-while knocking off most if not all of the seven GOP-held seats that are considered the shakiest.

At or near the top of that list was the Missouri seat held by Ashcroft, a former governor whose conservative voting record in the Senate had prompted criticism in his centrist state. Carnahan, who had succeeded Ashcroft as governor, was among the Democrats' brightest hopes for knocking off a Republican senator. Suddenly, that hope is gone.

"This takes their 20 to 25 percent shot [at recapturing the Senate] and makes it a 10 percent shot," said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the Cook Political Report. "The Democrats have got to hold all their seats-including Nevada, which is tough-and then pull an inside straight."

In Nevada, where Democratic Sen. Richard Bryan is retiring, GOP nominee John Ensign has held a steady lead over Democrat Ed Bernstein. The other Democratic seat in clear danger belongs to Sen. Charles Robb of Virginia, who is struggling against GOP challenger George Allen.

The Democrats' hope of controlling the Senate are further complicated by the unusual circumstances surrounding Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.). The party's vice presidential nominee is running simultaneously for reelection in Connecticut, where he's considered a shoo-in. If Vice President Gore wins the presidency and takes Lieberman with him to the White House, Connecticut's GOP Gov. John G. Rowland will fill Lieberman's Senate vacancy with a Republican. If the Gore-Lieberman ticket loses, Lieberman stays in the Senate. But the new Republican vice president-Richard B. Cheney-would cast the tie-breaking vote in the event of a 50-50 partisan breakdown in the Senate, keeping the GOP in control.

Either way, Lieberman's situation forces the Democratic Party to pick up yet another Senate seat if it's to control the chamber.

If the election were held today, Duffy said, the Democrats would probably lose their Nevada and Virginia Senate seats. That would give the Republicans a 56-44 edge. That means the Democrats must pick up seven other seats to control the Senate (given the Lieberman complication).

With Missouri almost surely an impossibility now, the Democrats must win every tightly contested race for seats now held by Republicans: Delaware, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Rhode Island and Washington. That would be a long shot under the best of circumstances, Duffy said, but it seems even less likely now because pollsters say voters seem generally happy with incumbents throughout the nation.

In Missouri, it's conceivable that a sympathy vote combined with anti-Ashcroft sentiment could result in more ballots being cast for the deceased Carnahan than for Ashcroft. Analysts said this morning it was unclear what would happen in such a case. State law says the governor fills a Senate vacancy, but that raises the question of which governor: The Democratic lieutenant governor who fills out the remaining three months of Carnahan's term? Or the new (and possibly Republican) governor who will be elected in next month's closely contested gubernatorial campaign?

Moreover, courts in some states have invalidated ballots cast for dead people. Finally, a Democrat conceivably could mount a last-minute write-in campaign against Ashcroft, but prospects for success would appear extremely remote.

The first order of the day in Missouri, of course, is to mourn its fallen governor and the others who died in the crash. As Democrats recover from their shock, they will view a political landscape where Republican control of the Senate seems more assured than it has in months.