California Lt. Gov. Gray Davis would be the first Democrat elected governor in 16 years. (AP file photo)

By Ceci Connolly and Rene Sanchez
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, October 8, 1998; Page A01

LOS ANGELES — As the 1998 campaign enters its final month, the story here in the largest state in the nation is one of a reversal of fortunes, one Democrat strong, another struggling for survival.

It is not a script that many political experts here would have written for this year's races for governor and Senate.

Through the spring and well into the summer, it was Lt. Gov. Gray Davis, the self-professed dull Democrat running for governor, who seemed threatened by a formidable, seasoned opponent in the crime-fighting, Reaganesque Attorney General Dan Lungren. And it was Sen. Barbara Boxer, the incumbent with friends and relatives in the White House, who caught a break drawing Matt Fong, the underfunded, low-key Republican state treasurer who relies on a briefing book to guide him through most campaign days.

State treasurer Matt Fong is challenging California Sen. Barbara Boxer, the Democratic incumbent. (AP file photo)

But over the last two months, Davis has maintained a lead, polishing his moderate image, seizing on the vital issue of education and running competitively in the state's agricultural Central Valley, where Republicans traditionally try to run up huge margins to cushion against large Democratic numbers in the Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay areas.

At the same time, Boxer has slipped, failing to broaden her base, fumbling questions over President Clinton's sexual misconduct and refusing to soften the sharp edges that have made her a divisive figure in a state that prefers its made-for-television politicians in more bland flavors.

"Gray Davis and Matt Fong are the two most nonthreatening people in the universe," said one prominent Republican. "They are basically running the same race: 'I'm safe, normal,' and neither has long records to go after."

The stakes for both parties in the two races are enormous. Democrats control just 17 governor's seats with few opportunities for gains. Reclaiming the California governorship after 16 years – two years before the next presidential campaign and congressional redistricting – would give Democrats a significant advantage. In the Senate, a Fong victory could help give Republicans the five additional votes needed to reach the suddenly feasible 60 needed to break filibusters and control the flow of legislation.

In a state where the flicker of a television image is the closest most Californians come to interacting with candidates, the campaign's tone is suddenly loud and harsh as all four candidates are unleashing a torrent of ads. Even events billed as "press conferences" here are little more than opportunities to preview new commercials and critique the other side's latest spots.

Attempting to reach 32 million residents in more than a dozen media markets will likely cost the gubernatorial contenders $40 million, the Senate candidates more than $20 million.

The profound influence of money and television in campaigns here helps explain why Davis, roundly derided as boring to the bone but a tenacious fund-raiser with $3.4 million more than his opponent, had the money to go on the air and seize control of the dialogue in early August with an effective mix of spots touching on crime, education and health care.

"Gray is in fact gray, but he is coming across cool on that medium," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political science professor at Claremont Graduate School. Boxer's money advantage over Fong, analysts add, could help her eke out a win.

As different as the two races here are, both are playing out against the backdrop of the Clinton scandal, an issue the Republicans have raised with mixed results.

Lungren, a tough-talking conservative Catholic who served in Congress for 10 years, has called on Clinton to resign. He launched the first values salvo with a television spot that closes with the phrase: "Character is doing the right thing when no one's looking."

In last week's debate, Davis attempted to reframe the duel over values, accusing Lungren of voting in Congress to cut social programs such as Head Start while supporting increases in his own salary. "Your record, Dan, can best be described as what someone does when they think no one is looking," Davis said.

Republicans believe the anti-Clinton rhetoric is especially potent against Boxer, an outspoken feminist whose daughter is married to Hillary Rodham Clinton's brother. "She has made her political career by railing against that kind of activity by other public officials, such as Clarence Thomas or Bob Packwood," said Mike Madrid, political director of the state GOP. "Her silence now is really energizing our base."

Aside from labeling Boxer a hypocrite, Fong has steered clear of directly addressing the Clinton controversy. The short, bespectacled state treasurer, who until recently had trouble convincing influential Republicans to give him money, is trying a more nuanced approach with his slogan: "A good man. A great senator."

Mark DiCamillo, director of the independent Field Poll in California, said that in close races such as these the way voters react to the Clinton scandal could be determinative. "The big question in the race this time is turnout, and a lot of it will revolve around what voters think of Clinton," he said.

This year, as in past contests, the independent-minded voters in the Central Valley will play a major role in selecting the winners. In the last three elections, the Central Valley became the "killing fields for Democratic candidates," said Davis spokesman Michael Bustamante. But Davis has made headway in the region with ads touting his military service and anti-crime record; Boxer, on the other hand, trails badly there.

John Braly, vice president of the California Cattlemen Association, who joined Fong for a swing through the Central Valley last week, said that in six years Boxer has never met with his group or other local farm groups. At least with Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), Braly said, "we may not agree but we can at least have a dialogue."

The low-key, sell-yourself-as-a-moderate strategy still holds risks for Davis and Fong, especially with four more weeks of advertising on the way. A Field Poll released yesterday shows Lungren cutting Davis's 12-point lead in late August to 6 points. Pollsters think both races are likely to be decided by a few percentage points in either direction.

For Lungren, the challenge in these last weeks is to craft a public identity and coherent theme that goes beyond his tough-on-criminals persona, while Boxer must convince moderate swing voters her reputation as a grating liberal is a caricature promoted by her enemies.

"The Senate election is pretty much a referendum on Barbara Boxer; she needs to change the public perception of her," said Ken Kachigian, a GOP strategist. "Lungren needs to offer a positive grand vision for California combined with a comparative analysis that pushes Davis to the left."

Gubernatorial Race

When Lungren and three Democrats running for governor debated in May, the undisputed winner was the lone Republican whose poise and sunny outlook suggested a new Ronald Reagan in the making. "We all left there awed," said consultant Darry Sragow, then campaign manager for Democratic candidate Al Checchi. "Democrats thought, 'Oh my God, we're never gonna get this guy.'‚"

Since then, Lungren has perspired during other TV encounters and failed to articulate a clear message while Davis, though not an inspiring orator, has steadily hammered his experience theme.

Lungren has "sort of groped for a theme," said veteran GOP operative Sal Russo. "The only thing they've done is focus on crime, and they haven't defined what it means to be for Dan Lungren for governor."

The two men present strikingly different agendas and both have begun feverishly assaulting each other's records in an unrelenting blitz of commercials.

Davis casts Lungren as a right-wing extremist, denouncing his support of school vouchers and suggesting that as attorney general Lungren has not aggressively enforced the federal ban on assault weapons. Davis also is airing commercials that single out Lungren's antiabortion views, hoping to energize female voters who otherwise might be demoralized by the Clinton sex scandal.

Lungren emphasizes some of the same themes that have carried other Republicans – such as Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore III – to victory. He promises to slash the state's car tax, defends school vouchers as a way to introduce badly needed competition into failing public schools and attacks Davis as a puppet of the teachers' unions.

Lungren's ads accuse Davis of being a meek sideline player in state politics, and one who is soft on crime. The spots contend that Davis has shown at best tepid and late support for California's "three-strikes" legislation, which requires criminals convicted of three felonies to receive long, mandatory prison sentences. As Lungren told delegates to the state GOP convention: "Davis owes all of California an apology for his shameless efforts to claim title to three strikes."

Senate Race

When Barbara Boxer stormed into the almost all-male Senate in the "Year of the Woman" six years ago, the political landscape was vastly different. "The last time she ran there was a very odd occurrence in California politics: a Democratic landslide," said Democratic consultant Bill Carrick.

In a recent Los Angeles Times poll, Fong had a slight lead over Boxer among likely voters. More troubling for her was data showing that Fong's supporters are more committed to voting, and that 50 percent of respondents view her negatively compared with 33 percent who have favorable opinions of her.

"And half of voters say they don't know anything about Fong," added DiCamillo. "That says to me that she could be in big trouble."

The Boxer camp attempted to soften her image with a commercial that shows her with a clutch of children discussing her dual roles of grandmother and senator. She also campaigned recently with Hillary Clinton. But that may not be enough.

"When an incumbent is running for reelection with a fairly high unfavorable rating, the task is pretty simple," Sragow said. "You have to turn your opponent into a worse evil."

To that end, Boxer is now airing a tough ad that denounces Fong as "the gun lobby's favorite candidate." Democrats are also targeting Fong's murky abortion stance and a new education spot he is running in four languages. The English version of the commercial says children must be able to "read, write and speak English so they are prepared to get a job." The Spanish, Cantonese and Mandarin spots don't mention that.

For his part, Fong, son of former Democratic secretary of state March Fong Eu, has packaged himself as a middle-of-the-roader who supports Malcolm S. "Steve" Forbes's flat tax and the ambassadorial nomination of openly gay San Francisco businessman James Hormel. And supporters believe Fong's Chinese heritage will help him attract support in California's predominantly Democratic Asian American community.

Because of this state's trend-setting history and political importance, Washington politicians are heavily invested in the outcome of these two races. But Californians – physically 3,000 miles away and psychically even further from the nation's capital – are sick of the Washington scandal and likely to base their choices on matters closer to home. Like Mount McKinley, large enough to trigger its own weather patterns, Sragow said, "California is big enough to create its own political climate."

Researcher Ben White contributed to this report from Washington.