By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 18, 1998; Page A19

In his bid to become governor of California, state attorney general Dan Lungren (R) is running out of time and running out of voters.

Lungren is chasing Lt. Gov. Gray Davis (D) for the biggest prize in this year's midterm elections. But his campaign has struggled to gain an advantage over Davis. Republicans know that a losing effort by Lungren could spoil what they expect will be an otherwise victorious evening nationally Nov. 3.

In the state that has shaped America's future, Lungren is running a campaign from the past. In the candidates' fourth debate Thursday night, Lungren sought to cast the election as a choice between Ronald Reagan and former California governor Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown Jr., for whom Davis served as chief of staff. "I'm proud while I was in the Congress to be the single strongest supporter of Ronald Reagan's agenda," Lungren said.

But California has changed since the days of Reagan, and today Brown is less a lightning rod than he was a decade ago. Lungren is hoping to prove that a Republican who opposes abortion rights can still win a top-of-the-ballot race in this state. No Republican has done that since 1988.

In attempting to rekindle the magic of Reagan, Lungren has left himself open to the charge that he is out of step with today's California. "He would take us backwards on a woman's right to choose, backwards on education, backwards on the environment, human rights and even on smoking," Davis charged in Thursday's debate.

Lungren remains competitive in the contest with Davis. But the most recent statewide polls underscore the size of the challenge he faces in the final two weeks of the campaign.

Both the Field Poll and a Mason-Dixon poll show Davis leading Lungren by 48 to 42 percent. But the trend over the past six months indicates that Lungren is having trouble attracting new voters. He was at about 42 percent in both those polls last spring. In contrast, Davis has shown steady, if slow, growth since the beginning of the year.

Lungren's support appeared to dip in late summer, but the most recent Field Poll showed the race narrowing, with Lungren cutting Davis's lead in half. But Lungren achieved that largely through increased support among Republicans.

The poll showed that, with few California voters saying they remain undecided in the race, Lungren may need to peel supporters away from Davis to win.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, said that will be much more difficult than it was for Lungren to improve his GOP support. "Lungren has to appeal to the undecideds," DiCamillo said. "He needs them to break his way, and he has to bring over and persuade some of the current Davis supporters to move his way. That's his challenge."

Both the Davis and Lungren campaigns disagree with the public polls. Davis advisers say his lead is even more substantial, while Lungren's team says the race is closer, particularly among those most likely to vote. "Right now Dan Lungren is behind, but he's not behind by much," said Steve Merksamer, a Sacramento attorney and Lungren adviser.

California's electorate appears sharply polarized, in part because of the national debate over the possible impeachment of President Clinton. Democrats and Republicans rallied to the sides of their candidates here earlier than usual. That leaves Lungren and Davis to fight largely for the votes of independents, swing voters who tend to be more moderate.

Lungren continues to focus heavily on crime, but a GOP strategist said, "He's got to move votes on something other than crime." Davis recently was endorsed by the California Correctional Peace Officers Association, which four years ago spent heavily on ads in behalf of Gov. Pete Wilson (R). Lungren's advisers fear a similar media effort this year could hurt, especially in the Central Valley, the region of the state that is crucial to Lungren's hopes.

Lungren has turned back the clock to highlight other issues that once resonated in the state, from the 1978 tax-cutting Proposition 13 to the "Big Green" environmental initiative that was defeated in 1990. A new ad also attacks Davis for opposing term limits in 1990 and the anti-affirmative action Proposition 209 in 1996.

In Thursday's debate, Lungren criticized Davis for his neutrality on a ballot issue that would have made it easier for stockholders to sue corporations. The initiative was supported by trial lawyers and opposed by high technology firms. Lungren said the initiative, defeated after a massive investment by Silicon Valley, would have been a job-killer.

The ballot issue produced the worst moment for Davis in the debate. He said his neutrality on an issue of importance to a key sector of the California economy did not suggest that he was in the pocket of trial lawyers. But when pinned down as to why he did not take a position on the issue, he lamely replied, "I had no particular expertise to deal with that issue."

Davis is not much more forward-looking than Lungren. But so far the wedge issues he has chosen to use against his opponent appear to have more resonance than those used by Lungren. They include abortion, the environment and assault weapons, all areas where Lungren's record puts him at odds with moderate voters, particularly women.

Some Republicans believe education could turn the election for Lungren. "People are dissatisfied with the schools and on this issue more than any other, Dan can run as the agent of change versus the status quo," said GOP strategist Dan Schnur. "He can go places where Davis can't go."

So far, Lungren has done little to get there. He has launched a new education ad, but it is as much a defense of his record as a plan for the future. He has precious little time to refocus his campaign on the issues – and voters – who can make the difference.

Researcher Ben White in Washington contributed to this report.