This survey of the political landscape in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia offers a look at the status of the senatorial, gubernatorial and closely contested House races: Mid-Atlantic Midwest Northeast The Pacific The Plains Rocky Mountains The South Southwest The reports above were compiled and written by David S. Broder with staff researcher Ben White. Contributors included staff reporters Charles Babington, Dan Balz, William Booth, Lou Cannon, Ceci Connolly, Helen Dewar, Thomas B. Edsall, Juliet Eilperin, Guy Gugliotta, Spencer S. Hsu, Tom Kenworthy, Terry M. Neal, Linda Perlstein, Sue Anne Pressley and Vanessa Williams.

By David S. Broder
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, November 1, 1998; Page A1

An incumbent-friendly electorate, voting under the shadow of a threatened presidential impeachment, is unlikely on Tuesday to make much of a change in the power balance in Congress, according to a final, 50-state survey by The Washington Post.

Democrats are poised to capture the biggest single prize – the California governorship held by the Republicans for the last 16 years – but are likely to see their Senate ranks slightly reduced. House races look like a near-standoff. The overall results of the mid-term voting will probably constitute a mixed verdict on divided government in Washington and a pat on the back for Republican governors in the big states.

If the eight closest Senate races split evenly between the parties, Republicans would emerge with a three-seat net gain – two seats short of the 60-seat, filibuster-proof Senate majority they would love to have. Under their best realistic scenario, Democrats might break even.

In a year when 55 House Republicans and 39 House Democrats have no major-party opponents and scores of others have huge financial advantages over their challengers, only about 10 percent of the 435 House seats appear to be in play on this final weekend. With virtually as many on the Democratic target list as on the GOP's, a stalemate is possible and the likelihood is that a shift in either direction would be in single digits.

The 11-seat pickup Democrats would need to take over the House looks almost – but not entirely – impossible. The competitive seats are mainly in places where Republicans figure to win the top statewide races, making some modest GOP gain in seats likely. The extraordinarily small number of contested races puts a ceiling on what either party can expect to add.

Perhaps nine of the 36 states electing governors, Maryland among them, have highly competitive races. They turn almost entirely on local issues and short-term conditions, as evidenced by the fact that a Republican has an excellent chance to take over in heavily Democratic but recession-plagued Hawaii and a Democrat is favored in Alabama, which last supported the national Democratic ticket in 1976.

The survey is based on extensive interviews by Post reporters during the past few days with campaign managers, pollsters and other political insiders in Washington and across the country.

Unlike 1994, when a similar story found evidence of the strong national GOP tide that washed away Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate, this year's canvass of expert opinion suggests that these expensive and often intensely negative campaigns are running on their individual courses. Personalities, local issues and, pervasively, the financial advantage held by one candidate over another are determining results far more than any national issues or trends.

Even though the House members elected Tuesday may be called upon to vote on the impeachment of President Clinton, the issue has surfaced very rarely as a driving force in House campaigns. There is little evidence that a decision by House Republican leaders to include ads focused on Clinton's behavior in their final round of TV spots is having much impact.

"I'd be hard put to tell you one race where Clinton's reputation is likely to be the deciding factor," a senior GOP strategist said.

The absence of any visible national trend in the voting is not a surprise, several observers said, given what has happened since Clinton was reelected along with a Republican Congress in 1996. The economy has continued to hum along, with some Farm Belt exceptions, and the major budgetary and tax decisions that affect people's wallets and well-being have been negotiated on a bipartisan basis between the White House and Capitol Hill.

Topics that often have fueled partisan fighting have been shunted off to the sidelines or postponed until another day. There have been no pitched battles in this Congress on Social Security, Medicare funding or crime bills – and only sporadic attention to contentious social issues such as abortion.

Inhibited by the pending impeachment proceedings, Clinton did little public campaigning, confining himself largely to fund-raisers. He tried to use a Rose Garden strategy to define differences with the Republicans, especially on education, but seemingly had limited success.

On the other side, there was nothing from the Republican congressional leadership remotely resembling the Contract With America that helped them turn the 1994 midterm into a referendum on the conservative domestic-policy agenda the GOP would pursue. Instead, many Republicans outside Washington complained that the GOP went into this election with a muddled message.

But with polls in both parties showing almost unprecedented high levels of voter approval for individual members of Congress and with incumbent governors enjoying even higher grades, the inclination was to let everyone run on his or her own record – and use whatever tactics were necessary to swat away pesky challengers.

Below the surface, however, some signs point to a presidential influence in the likely outcome. Democrats appear strongest in areas of the country – notably the West Coast – where Clinton ran well in both his campaigns, where his popularity remains relatively high and where opposition to impeachment is strong in the polls. Hawaii aside, prospective gains for the GOP in statewide elections cluster in the Sun Belt and the Rocky Mountain West – areas that have been relatively hostile to Clinton.

But there are exceptions to any generalization. Thanks to Republican job reshuffling, Democrats have a shot at both House seats in Idaho, one of the most reliable Republican bastions. A GOP House seat in staunchly Republican Utah is also in jeopardy. By contrast, despite the general Democratic trend in California, two House seats in that state could easily flip to the GOP.

The Senate is the arena of greatest doubt. Republicans look certain to gain a seat in Ohio and Democrats to answer in Indiana – with retirements the key in both instances. Although the race has tightened in the final days, Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun (D-Ill.) remains the most endangered Senate incumbent in either party.

Democratic challengers are running even with or slightly ahead of Sens. Alfonse M. D'Amato (R-N.Y.) and Lauch Faircloth (R-N.C.). The list of equally embattled Democratic incumbents is headed by Sens. Russell Feingold (Wis.) and Harry M. Reid (Nev.). Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Ernest F. Hollings (D-S.C.) are leading but not home free. Open Democratic seats in Kentucky and Arkansas present further opportunities to the GOP.

While any net gain would be welcomed by Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.), almost everything would have to break right for Republicans for him to have the 60 votes needed to quash the frequent Democratic tactic of threatening a filibuster to derail or delay Republican bills. Should the House vote to impeach the president and send it to the Senate for trial on conviction and removal, it would take 67 votes.

Lott's counterpart, Senate Minority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.), who has no problems in his reelection campaign, commented last night that "if we minimize our losses – hold them below three or four – it will put the Republican leadership more on the defensive, not just on impeachment but on policy issues as well."

The biggest Democratic cheers Tuesday night are likely to come not on Senate races, but when the polls close on the California gubernatorial election.

Unless he pulls off a huge upset, state Attorney General Dan Lungren (R) stands to break the GOP's streak of four straight wins for the top job in the largest state. If Lt. Gov. Gray Davis (D) succeeds term-limited Gov. Pete Wilson (R), he will probably have a strengthened Democratic majority in the legislature and the opportunity to test and showcase the kind of social policies Clinton often has been blocked from enacting in the last four years of Republican-controlled Congresses. Democrats also would be well-positioned to redraw the boundaries for 52 or more California House districts – enough to shift the national balance of power.

Overall, however, Republicans may add to the number of governorships they now control, with a lineup of 32 Republicans, 17 Democrats and an Independent (who is cruising to reelection) in Maine.

In addition to Hawaii, Republicans are favored to take over Democratic governorships in Colorado, Nebraska and Florida. The likely Florida winner is Jeb Bush, younger brother of Texas Gov. George W. Bush, whose expected landslide victory may set the stage for a presidential candidacy. Other lopsided GOP victories are predicted in New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and a half-dozen smaller states.

Democrats have hopes for their gubernatorial candidates in Iowa and Rhode Island, but in four other competitive races – Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico and South Carolina – Democratic prospects have declined during October. Republicans, on the other hand, remain very competitive in the Georgia, Maryland and Nevada governor's races.

Seventeen of 41 House seats with the tightest races have no incumbents on the ballot, leaving exactly two dozen returning members of the House whose political fate is in some serious doubt. Ten of the 13 Democrats in this category are running in states where Republican governors are expected to win – often by wide margins. That adds to their potential vulnerability. On the other hand, only one Republican – Rep. Brian P. Bilbray (Calif.) – could be looking at the reverse situation in his state, and six can expect some help from the top of the ticket.

Staff writer Dan Balz and researcher Ben White contributed to this report.