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By Jon Jeter That is essentially what happened two years ago when conservative Al Salvi upset his moderate rival for the GOP nomination for Senate in Illinois, only to be badly beaten in the general election by the Democrats' liberal nominee, Richard J. Durbin. And it is why party leaders, from Illinois Gov. Jim Edgar to the 1996 nominee for president, Robert J. Dole, campaigned for Fitzgerald's moderate opponent for the Senate nomination, Loleta Didrickson. But those expecting a replay of the Senate race of two years ago might find a few twists along the way to the November showdown between Fitzgerald and Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun (D-Ill.), political strategists say. The combination of Fitzgerald's deep pockets he is a millionaire who tapped into a family fortune to spend nearly $7 million on his primary campaign and a perception that Moseley-Braun is vulnerable could produce different results than the Senate race of 1996. "You rarely see incumbents getting upset by a candidate who is like them," said Mike McKeon, an Illinois pollster. "When you have two candidates who are similar, the voters are going to reelect the incumbent. But there's a clear difference between these two." Since she became the first black woman elected to the Senate six years ago, Moseley-Braun has both stumbled and recovered. She has battled accusations that she mishandled campaign contributions and allegations that her campaign manager and then-fiance, Kgosie Matthews, sexually harassed female campaign workers. In 1996, she and Matthews visited Nigeria and met with the dictator Gen. Sani Abacha. With his monied campaign, Fitzgerald was able to use a barrage of television ads to portray his primary opponent, Didrickson, as a liberal. Already, he and GOP officials have suggested that they will do much the same with Moseley-Braun, focusing on both her liberal voting record and accusations of ethical lapses. "Our message is not going to change," said John McGovern, press secretary for the state GOP. "Peter is a tax fighter. He believes in lean-and-clean government. This election is going to be a referendum on her record and the host of scandals that make hers the most vulnerable seat in the U.S. Senate." The task of portraying Moseley-Braun negatively will be difficult, however. As an incumbent, with the support of organized labor and women's groups, she will have ample resources as well. Political analysts say that the two candidates will likely spend more than $20 million combined by Election Day. Moseley-Braun's post is high on the GOP's wish list. Steven Grossman, national chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said that the Illinois Democratic ticket is geographically balanced, which should help voter turnout. Moseley-Braun's Chicago-based voters should complement the southern Illinois base of the the party's nominee for governor, Rep. Glenn Poshard. "At the end of the day, Fitzgerald will be to Illinois what Michael Huffington was to California," Grossman said, referring to an unsuccessful bid for the Senate by the Republican millionaire four years ago. Throughout the primary campaign, Moseley-Braun, who was unopposed, repeated Fitzgerald's references to Didrickson as a liberal, suggesting that she preferred to face Fitzgerald in the general election. Michael Briggs, a spokesman for Moseley-Braun, said that her campaign would focus on the issues of education, while characterizing Fitzgerald's views on abortion and guns as out of touch with the mainstream. While the Senate campaign will be a study in contrasts, the gubernatorial race will be anything but. Poshard, a Democrat who opposes abortion, will square off against the GOP's moderate nominee, George Ryan, Illinois secretary of state.
"The primaries are about partisanship," said McKeon. "But you have to forget about that in the general election. Both parties are viewed as special-interest parties, and so increasingly you have candidates heading toward the center. With people so disgusted with both political parties, you'd really have to be insane to run on a strictly partisan platform."
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