By Helen Dewar
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, October 24, 1998; Page A6

LEXINGTON, Ky. – The good news for Rep. Scotty Baesler (D-Ky.) is that traditionally Democratic issues such as Social Security, education and health care have top billing in his hard-fought race for the Senate with Rep. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.). The bad news for Baesler is that Bunning is trying to run on them.

"There's no question, he is running as a Democrat," grumbles Baesler, contending that his conservative Republican rival has often opposed the causes that he is now embracing and that he has reversed course in order to "soften his image, appeal to Democrats and come toward the middle of the road" in seeking statewide votes.

"I'm emphasizing these issues because they're the ones I've championed," Bunning retorts. "They [Democrats] have tried to paint me to the right of Attila the Hun. I'm not to the right of Attila the Hun. I'm mainstream Kentucky."

Bunning's reliance on Democratic causes – along with his attempt to portray Baesler as hostile to them – presents a stunning contrast with the Republican line of attack in the midterm elections of 1994, when the GOP won control of both houses of Congress on a platform of staunch anti-government conservatism. Bunning's approach reflects both the country's more contented mood and the fact that Democrats still outnumber Republicans in Kentucky, even though they don't always vote that way.

Bunning's strategy also helps explain why Democrats could lose the Kentucky seat held for 24 years by Senate Democratic Whip Wendell H. Ford, who is retiring, and why this is the most hotly contested of five open-seat Senate races that will be decided Nov. 3.

Winning the Kentucky seat is critical to Republicans' against-the-odds hopes of expanding their 55-vote majority to a filibuster-proof majority of 60. To do so without Kentucky would require Republicans to win all their other close races and pull off a surprise or two. But it would be the height of irony if the GOP attains its 60-seat prize because of a Republican running on Democratic issues.

Despite the different campaign styles of the hard-charging Bunning (an investment broker after leaving baseball) and more folksy Baesler (a lawyer and the only tobacco farmer in Congress), the two men have a lot in common. Both are sports celebrities who have served several terms in the House and have political views that put them on the conservative flanks of their parties.

Bunning, who just turned 67, pitched his way into the Baseball Hall of Fame during the 1960s, while Baesler, 57, was captain of University of Kentucky basketball team under legendary coach Adolph Rupp in 1963. Bunning has represented northern Kentucky in the House since 1986; Baesler was elected from central Kentucky, including Lexington, in 1992.

While nowhere near as conservative as Bunning, Baesler is a "Blue Dog" moderate-to-conservative Democrat in the House. Bunning has made his mark on budget and tax issues as well as Social Security; Baesler was a prime mover in successful efforts to force a vote on campaign finance reform in the House.

"It's a tough race . . . a very, very tight race," Baesler told a small group of Democratic loyalists on the steps of the Scott County Courthouse in Georgetown, Ky., last Monday. In an interview the next day, Bunning predicted it would be a "horse race . . . to the end."

It wasn't always so. Shortly after Baesler won a hotly contested three-way primary for the Democratic nomination, he held a double-digit lead in the polls. But he spent himself virtually broke in the primary, and Bunning spent the summer – along with a big chunk of Republican cash – defining the choice for the general election on his terms.

Bunning, who is chairman of the House Ways and Means subcommittee on Social Security, portrayed himself as a champion of the popular federal retirement program, and GOP ads have accused Baesler of cutting benefits, an apparent reference to trimming annual inflation adjustments, an idea that Bunning also supported at one point.

Bunning also has portrayed himself as a strong advocate of education, while Baesler has assailed him for voting to abolish the Education Department.

Even now, Bunning is running an ad that makes it appear that Baesler opposes time off from work so parents can "care for a sick child or a new baby." A casual viewer could take this to mean that Baesler opposed a 1993 law that guaranteed unpaid leave for family and medical needs, which Baesler supported and Bunning opposed. But, in fact, it refers to legislation that would give workers a choice between pay or time off for working overtime, which was opposed by most Democrats.

Bunning also sought to take advantage of an uncharacteristically frenzied, fist-shaking speech by Baesler at a political picnic in early August – with mixed results.

Earlier this month, he started running ads that included snippets of the speech against the backdrop of Wagner's "Ride of the Valkyries," which the Louisville Courier-Journal describes as a "subliminal exploitation of Nazi iconography." Bunning said there was "never any intent" to compare Baesler with Hitler but got roasted in newspaper editorials. Meanwhile, the Kentucky GOP started running an ad criticizing Baesler's vote for the North American Free Trade Agreement, ending with an Hispanic man giving a thumbs-up sign and saying, "Muchas gracias, Seρor Baesler."

Baesler is still furious at the ads, describing them as efforts to "encourage fear and divide us." But some Democrats say Baesler also may have been hurt by the ad's repeated showing of his feverish oratory at the August picnic.

One of the surprises of the campaign is the silence over President Clinton's impeachment fight, despite predictions it might hurt Democrats in states such as Kentucky. Instead, Bunning, who five years ago excoriated Clinton as the "most corrupt . . . despicable person I've ever seen," appears even more resolute than Baesler to keep Clinton out of the campaign. Baesler says Bunning would "inject Clinton into the campaign tomorrow" if he thought it would win votes "but he knows it won't."

Behind the scenes there is also a proxy war going on between Ford, who does not want to be succeeded by a Republican, and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who is chairman of the Republican senatorial campaign committee and does not want a big loss in his back yard. Ford has weighed in with a hard-hitting ad on Baesler's behalf, and McConnell has played an influential role in Bunning's campaign.

While Bunning had three times as much cash on hand as Baesler did as of Oct. 1, Bunning spent far more during the first half of the month, leaving him only slightly more flush than Baesler for the campaign's final stretch, according to campaign estimates. Moreover, the Democratic Party and allied groups have weighed in heavily on Baesler's behalf. McConnell said he expects more to be spent for Baesler than Bunning before the race is over.

In recent elections, there have been far more open-seat races presenting far more opportunities for upsets. This year, most of the close contests involve incumbents seeking reelection: two for Republicans, a half-dozen for Democrats.

In this year's races to fill vacancies created by retirements, Ohio and Indiana seats are expected to change hands, with Ohio Gov. George V. Voinovich (R) likely to succeed Sen. John Glenn (D) and former Indiana governor Evan Bayh (D) in line to replace Sen. Dan Coats (R). In Idaho, Rep. Michael D. Crapo (R) has a commanding lead to succeed Sen. Dirk Kempthorne (R), who is running for governor. In Arkansas, former representative Blanche Lincoln Lambert (D) is leading in the race to succeed Sen. Dale Bumpers (D).