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50-State Analysis: The Mid-Atlantic
Delaware | District of Columbia | Maryland | New Jersey
There's nothing on the Delaware ballot to distract voters from the gripping murder trial involving two former aides of Gov. Thomas R. Carper (D). Carper is in mid-term. Neither Senate seat is up. And Rep. Michael N. Castle (R) has his usual walkover.
Anthony A. Williams (D), who moved to the District three years ago to manage the city's finances, is favored to win the mayoralty over Carol Schwartz (R), a veteran of the city's political wars. The election will mark the end of the 16-year tenure of Mayor Marion Barry (D). Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton (D) is headed for her fifth term in the House.
The dominant campaign story all year has been the rematch between Gov. Parris N. Glendening (D) and Ellen Sauerbrey (R), who came within 6,000 votes of defeating him four years ago. Despite the prosperity and lower crime and welfare rates most incumbent governors are riding to reelection, Glendening's prickly relations with other Democrats – notably the top black elected officials of Baltimore and Prince George's County – have given Sauerbrey the opening she needed. The race has been increasingly personal and negative, and the antipathy between these rivals is not feigned. Glendening opened a very slight lead a week ago, but it depends on a large black turnout, which he may or may not get. Sauerbrey clearly has a chance.
Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski (D) faces no such problems in her third-term contest with Ross Pierpoint, a retired physician who has lost more than a dozen election bids. Rep. Constance A. Morella (R) has faced a spirited challenge from civil rights activist Ralph Neas (D) but her defeat would be a real upset.
After slam-bang campaigns for the Senate in 1996 and governor in 1997, the Garden State is taking a vacation. Freshman Reps. William J. Pascrell Jr. (D) and Mike Pappas (R), who won squeakers last time, avoided tough opponents this year. The spotlight has shifted to Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. (D), a 10-year veteran on the leadership ladder in the House who usually has easy campaigns. The joker in his deck this year is that he faces not only Mike Ferguson (R), a well-funded young community college teacher, but an angry third-party candidate with personal wealth and a grudge to settle. In June, Carl Mayer, an affluent attorney, lost the Democratic congressional nomination in Pappas's neighboring district to a rival endorsed by Pallone, and now is running against Pallone on the Green Party ticket. In addition, an outside business group, Americans for Job Security, has mounted a heavy TV independent expenditure campaign. Hillary Clinton came in to defend Pallone as an ally on health care legislation and, despite the triple-whammy, Democrats seem confident Pallone will survive.
Six years ago, Lauch Faircloth (R), then a challenger running his first race as a Republican after a long career as a Democrat, won a narrow victory over incumbent Sen. Terry Sanford (D), who was hospitalized for a substantial period late in the campaign. This year, bolstered by six years in office, the 70-year-old senator has been put to the test by John Edwards (D), an affluent trial lawyer who made a strong political debut in a self-financed primary win over six others eager to take on Faircloth. While Faircloth was tied down in Washington, Edwards dominated the Tarheel campaign trail and threw such a scare into Republicans that Faircloth was impelled to switch consultants. Since the change, he has run a more aggressive campaign, linking Edwards to Clinton as a pair of "tobacco-taxing liberals." Faircloth's senior colleague, Sen. Jesse Helms (R), has established a pattern of finding emotional issues to defeat strong-looking Democratic challengers in the final stages of the campaign, but the formula faces a severe test in the even-up Faircloth-Edwards race. Republicans are hopeful about picking up the House seat of retiring Rep. W.‚G. "Bill" Hefner (D). Robin Hayes (R), the losing candidate for governor in 1996, is a likely winner over attorney Mike Taylor (D). Freshman Rep. Bobby R. Etheridge (D) saw his district strengthened by redistricting, but he is not a sure thing against state Sen. Dan Page (R), who claims the distinction of being the first candidate in the country to put up an ad about the Lewinsky scandal. Etheridge is favored.
Rep. Melvin Watt (D) faces the opposite situation. His voting-rights district, which squiggled down I-85, was redrawn under court order, significantly reducing the percentage of black and Democratic voters and folding in big chunks of new territory. Watt has been busy introducing himself and caught a break when the Republican nomination went to dentist and first-time candidate Scott Keadle (R), whose home is outside the Charlotte suburbs that now constitute the population center of the district. The district still favors the Democrat.
The Democratic Party has defaulted on a statewide basis and has failed to provide serious competition for either Gov. Tom Ridge (R) or Sen. Arlen Specter (R). Ridge, a GOP vice presidential possibility, is on his way to a second term over state Rep. Ivan Itkin (D), and Specter will get his fourth term over equally unknown state Rep. William Lloyd (D). Democrats hoped to elect Pat Casey (D), son of former governor Bob Casey (D), to the Scranton House seat vacated after 36 years by Rep. Joseph M. McDade (R). But auto dealer Don Sherwood (R), spending heavily from his own pocket, has made it a tossup contest.
In the Philadelphia suburbs, Rep. Jon D. Fox (R) is in a rematch with the man he defeated by only 84 votes in 1996, County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel (D). But Clinton whomped Dole in the district then, and this year the coattails are Republican. Last week, the American Medical Association launched a massive Philadelphia TV buy supporting Fox and he is now a clear favorite. The vacancy in the Lehigh Valley House seat of retiring Rep. Paul McHale (D) is likely to switch parties. Patrick Toomey (R), a young Harvard grad and expatriate from Wall Street, has out-financed and out-campaigned state Sen. Roy Afflerbach (D), who received a late campaign visit from Hillary Clinton.
With no statewide races, both parties have taken a breather after the 1997 gubernatorial election and all House incumbents appear safe. Rep. James P. Moran Jr. (D) was criticized in his heavily Democratic Arlington-Alexandria district for suggesting that Clinton consider resigning, but has blunted attacks from Demaris H. Miller (R), a psychologist and wife of twice-losing Senate candidate James C. Miller III. Rep. Rick Boucher (D) defused the scandal in his rural district by drafting the Democrats' alternative resolution for an impeachment inquiry.
Just enjoy the fall foliage, folks, 'cause politics is really quiet this year. Two of the incumbent Democratic House members drew only Libertarian challengers and the third, Rep. Robert E. Wise Jr. (D), has the most nominal Republican opposition.
© Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company |
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