Washingtonpost.com: 50-State Analysis -- The Midwest


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50-State Analysis: The Midwest

Elections Guide
Illinois

The license plates say "Land of Lincoln" and the top of the ticket looks very Republican indeed this year. Democrats have not elected a governor since 1972 and their losing streak is likely to continue. Republicans picked Secretary of State George Ryan (R), a party wheel horse, to succeed retiring Gov. Jim Edgar (R). The winner of the tough Democratic primary was labor-backed Downstate Rep. Glenn Poshard (D). Poshard's opposition to abortion and some gun control measures made him a dubious candidate in the Chicago area, where he was little known, and Ryan has moved deftly in the fashion of Edgar and his predecessor, Jim Thompson (R), to become the kind of moderate Republican suburban voters prefer. Polls show the race has tightened in the last two weeks, but Poshard still has a way to go.

Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun (D) heads everyone's list of endangered incumbents, largely because her personal behavior – trips to Nigeria, repeated questions about finances – has alienated independent voters who made her the first African American woman elected to the Senate six years ago. Her challenger, state Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (R), a conservative who defeated Edgar's choice in the primary, has reached deep into his own pockets to pay for a TV campaign fending off Democratic criticism of his anti-abortion, anti-gun control stands and keeping the focus on the incumbent. Criticized for scant personal campaigning, Fitzgerald has seen his margin narrow. One poll shows the race even but he remains at least a narrow favorite.

In the banner House race, targeted by interest groups on both sides, Rep. Lane Evans (D) is in a rematch against former TV anchorman Mark Baker (R), the man he defeated by 11,000 votes last time. Illinois has ended party-lever voting this year for the first time, so they're on their own. Evans rates the slightest edge.

The open Poshard seat is likely to remain Democratic, with state Rep. Dave Phelps (D), a gospel singer in Poshard's conservative mode, favored over Republican Brent Winters, back for a third try after losing twice by landslide margins to Poshard. Rep. Jerry F. Costello (D), named as an unindicted co-conspirator when a former business partner was convicted of fraud, appears to be fending off the challenge of Republican Bill Price, an orthopedic surgeon whose father was the longtime Democratic congressman from this Democratic district. Chicago Rep. Sidney R. Yates (D) is leaving after 34 years, to be replaced by state Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D). Retiring seven-term Rep. Harris W. Fawell (R) will see his chosen successor, state Rep. Judy Biggert (R), elected to the suburban seat.

Elections Guide
Indiana

As long expected, former governor Evan Bayh (D) is going to move to the Senate, where his father, Birch Bayh, served until 1980, with what looks to be an easy victory over Fort Wayne Mayor Paul Helmke (R). Bayh would have been a strong contender even if Sen. Dan Coats (R) had chosen to run for reelection, and the underfunded Helmke has not been able to make it a race. Bayh, whose two terms as governor were marked by cautious, conservative policies, has done nothing in this campaign to stir up partisan sentiments. The best chance for a Republican pickup is in the southern Indiana district vacated by longtime Rep. Lee H. Hamilton (D). Democrats felt sure they had the right candidate in former state representative and 1990 Senate candidate Baron Hill (D), but Republicans have countered with former state senator Jean Leising (R), who came close to defeating Hamilton in 1994 but lost badly in 1996. She has led in published polls, but the race is probably a tossup.

Democratic hopes of unseating Rep. John N. Hostettler (R) with Evansville Councilwoman Gail Riecken (D) in a classic battleground district have faded as the campaign has gone on. Freshman Rep. Julia Carson (D) is a slight favorite over Republican Gary Hofmeister, a jeweler, in an Indianapolis-based district that has enough suburban Republicans to make it competitive.

Elections Guide
Iowa

Retiring Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) and his predecessor, Robert Ray (R), have kept the governor's office a GOP preserve for 30 years, and the 1998 candidate, former representative Jim Ross Lightfoot (R), seemed a sure bet to maintain that dominance. Lightfoot was an established name after a creditable race against Sen. Tom Harkin (D) in 1996, and his opponent, state Sen. Tom Vilsack (D), had no money for TV after a hard-fought primary. But Vilsack is now on the air, his name recognition is up and the race has closed markedly. Today's Iowa Poll in the Des Moines Register-Tribune gives Lightfoot 47 percent to Vilsack's 43 percent.

Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R) has no problems in winning a fourth term over former state representative David Osterberg (D). Freshman Rep. Leonard L. Boswell (D), a squeaky winner on Clinton coattails in Lightfoot's old district, is high on the GOP target list. He has worked hard to strengthen his farm base, but Grassley and Lightfoot will carry the district and could strengthen Boswell's opponent, state Sen. Larry McKibben (R).

Elections Guide
Michigan

Gov. John Engler (R) would have been a strong favorite for a third term in any case, given the rosy economic picture and his record on schools, welfare reform and taxes. But when Geoffrey Fieger won the Democratic nomination over the party- and labor-endorsed candidate, it became a rout. Fieger, best known as the defense lawyer for Jack Kevorkian in his assisted-suicide cases, has used such inflammatory rhetoric on Engler and a long list of other targets that Democrats have all but disowned his disastrous candidacy.

Until recently, they thought their House incumbents would survive, even in marginal districts, protected by their personal records and a highly competitive female Democratic candidate for attorney general. But in the last week, there have been signs of "meltdown" in the Democratic vote. A poll published yesterday, for example, shows veteran Rep. Sander M. Levin (D) in the Detroit suburbs leading challenger Leslie Touma (R), a former Engler adviser, by only 47 percent to 41 percent.

That trend could also spell trouble for Rep. Bart Stupak (D) against state Rep. Michelle McManus (R), although Stupak's Upper Peninsula constituents are more likely to stick to a known quantity. Sensing the shifting terrain, Republicans are even talking up their chances of upsetting Rep. Lynn Nancy Rivers (D) of Ann Arbor with businessman Tom Hickey (R), but that seems a long shot.

Elections Guide
Minnesota

When the race to succeed retiring Gov. Arne Carlson (R) began this fall, voters expected to see state Attorney General Hubert H. Humphrey III (D), owner of the most potent name in modern Minnesota history, defending his early lead over St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman (R), a recent convert from the Democratic Party but a more dynamic candidate than Humphrey.

They did not reckon with Jesse "The Body" Ventura, onetime pro wrestler, talk show host and former mayor of a Minneapolis suburb, running as the Reform Party candidate. Humphrey fought to get Ventura into the TV debates, figuring he would draw votes from Coleman. Instead, Ventura's clever jibes at career politicians have been mostly at Humphrey's expense and the erstwhile front-runner's numbers have tumbled. A week ago, Ventura got a bank loan against the public funding he will receive if – as seems certain – he breaks 5 percent of the vote. He put up his first TV ad, a cartoon done by the same firm that devised the humorous spots that helped Sen. Paul D. Wellstone (D) score an upset victory in his first race. Ventura does not seem capable of winning the race, but late private polls show him almost even with Humphrey, with Coleman edging ahead as the unintended beneficiary of Ventura's novel campaign.

Elections Guide
Missouri

Sen. Christopher S. Bond (R) almost always has close races, but he has not lost since 1976, when his tenure as governor was interrupted temporarily. This year, his third-term challenge comes from state Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) and the pattern is familiar. Nixon has finally repaired his broken relations with several key black leaders and has begun to close the numbers, but Bond looks likely to hold him off. Freshman Republican Reps. Jo Ann Emerson and Kenny Hulshof drew weak opponents this year and should substantially improve on their shaky 1996 margins.

Elections Guide
Ohio

If retiring Sen. John Glenn (D) looks down from shuttle Discovery on his home state, he will see an autumn landscape that looks very Republican. Gov. George V. Voinovich (R) is leaving office after two terms and is a prohibitive favorite to defeat underfunded former Cuyahoga County commissioner Mary Boyle (D) for Glenn's Senate seat.

Both parties went to their logical candidates in the contest to succeed Voinovich, with Secretary of State Robert A. Taft II (R), latest in a long line of political leaders, facing former state attorney general Lee Fisher (D). Fisher has run a strong race, but polls consistently show Taft a few points ahead.

Incumbents are slight favorites in two hotly contested House races in southern Ohio. Rep. Ted Strickland (D) is matched against Lt. Gov. Nancy Hollister (R) and Rep. Steve Chabot (R) faces off against Cincinnati Mayor Roxanne Qualls (D). Cleveland Rep. Louis Stokes (D) is retiring after 15 terms, to be succeeded by Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D), the first woman and first African American prosecutor in Cuyahoga County.

Elections Guide
Wisconsin

Like so many of his counterparts, Gov. Tommy G. Thompson (R) has found the formula over the past 12 years that suits his constituents, so he has been able to devote much of his attention and money to helping other Republicans instead of fighting off the weak challenge of Ed Garvey (D), former head of the NFL Players Association and losing 1986 Senate candidate.

The headline race pits Sen. Russell Feingold (D) against two-term Rep. Mark W. Neumann (R). The contest has been depicted as a test case in rival campaign finance practices. Feingold, cosponsor of the main reform bill (stymied by a Senate filibuster), has refused soft money contributions from Democratic groups, while Neumann, personally wealthy, has received massive outside support.

Wisconsin observers say it's a bit more complicated. Ads purchased by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee were still running this past week, long after Feingold said he had asked that they be stopped. While Feingold's generally liberal record fits the state, Neumann has been more effective than any other Republican candidate in the country in identifying himself as the protector of Social Security in budget debates. Neumann and anti-abortion groups have pummeled Feingold for being alone in the Wisconsin delegation in opposing a ban on "partial-birth" abortions, an important issue with many Catholic Democrats.

Still, Feingold has been an assiduous weekend campaigner for all his six years while Neumann is a newcomer to many voters. Republicans say Neumann has edged ahead in their polls and they expect him to win, but no Democrat is conceding the seat.

There is gloom for the Democrats in House races. Freshman Rep. Jay Johnson (D) in Green Bay looks vulnerable to the challenge from state Rep. Mark Green (R) in a Republican-leaning district. Neumann's district, in the southeast corner of the state, was one the Democrats expected to pick up. Lydia Spottswood (D), former president of the Kenosha city council, almost defeated Neumann in 1996. But Paul Ryan (R), a 28-year-old former Senate aide who fits the Neumann mold, has proved to be a formidable campaigner and the district now seems likely to remain in GOP hands.

The closest contest is in the Madison-based seat left open by the retirement of Rep. Scott L. Klug (R). Two able female candidates, liberal state Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) and moderate former state insurance commissioner Jo Musser (R), are in a close race, with the changing demographics perhaps giving a slight edge to Musser.