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50-State Analysis: The Northeast
Connecticut | Maine | Massachusetts | New Hampshire
Gov. John G. Rowland (R) has copied the Clinton reelection playbook – tout your accomplishments early and outline a lot of small further steps you want to take – so well that his opponent, Rep. Barbara B. Kennelly (D), who was even with him a year ago, is now trailing in the dust, uncertain even of carrying her own Hartford district. But that has not slowed Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D) from envisioning a fourth-term landslide against former representative Gary A. Franks (R). Freshman Rep. James H. Maloney (D), who ousted Franks in the Waterbury district two years ago, faces a capable challenger in state Sen. Mark Nielsen (R). Rowland, who once held this House seat, will provide leverage for Nielsen, but Maloney has constructed a moderate record – including a vote for the Republican impeachment inquiry resolution – and has worked hard to entrench himself. He rates a narrow favorite.
Kennelly's old district has been Democratic for four decades, but Republicans think they have the right candidate in attorney Kevin O'Connor. Former state Senate president John Larson (D) narrowly won his party's primary and has to hope that traditional demographics carry him on Tuesday.
With employment up and state taxes down Independent Gov. Angus King looks so strong in his second-term bid that the major party challengers are scrambling for issues. Former representative James B. Longley (R), whose father was an Independent governor a generation ago, promises more tax cuts; Democrat Thomas Connolly, a populist lawyer, says he would raise them to finance a "Marshall Plan for Maine." But King has a firm grasp on the center – and his job. Neither of the two Democratic representatives faces a serious challenge.
When Gov. William F. Weld (R) resigned abruptly last year to accept the nomination from Clinton as ambassador to Mexico (he later withdrew in face of opposition from GOP Sen. Jesse Helms), Bay State Democrats figured their chances of regaining the governorship looked bright. Acting Gov. Paul Cellucci (R), as the Commonwealth Constitution requires him to be called, had none of Weld's personality and demonstrated no personal ability to draw crossover Democratic votes. But they underestimated their opponent, as state Attorney General Scott Harshbarger (D), the winner of the gubernatorial nomination, can testify. By sponsoring a big tax cut, Cellucci annexed his name to the current prosperity, which has 70 percent of the voters saying Massachusetts is moving on the right track. At the same time, he picked off a number of old-line Democratic officeholders who dislike Harshbarger's reformist zeal and his record of prosecuting some of their pals. The bitter joke among these Democrats is that Harshbarger, if elected, would be "Michael Dukakis without the charm." Harshbarger's effort to snare independents who liked Weld's polish and intellect has been hampered by the extremely harsh tone of his debates with Cellucci. What could still save him is the overwhelmingly Democratic affiliation of Massachusetts voters. The state's two Democratic senators have been rallying the faithful, but Cellucci is holding a narrow lead. Two freshman Democratic representatives who swept in on Clinton coattails in 1996 are in spirited races, but both are expected to survive. Rep. Jim McGovern (D) appears to have his battle with state Sen. Matt Amorello (R) well in hand. Rep. John F. Tierney (D) is in a rematch with ex-Rep. Peter Torkildsen (R), the man he beat by only 360 votes last time, and his North Shore district is a shade less Democratic in its leanings than McGovern's Worcester base.
A fierce 10-person primary for the seat of retiring Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy (D) was won by Somerville Mayor Michael E. Capuano (D), who inherits a district that elected John F. Kennedy and Thomas P. "Tip" O'Neill.
Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) finishes her first two-year term in good shape politically, though the school-finance issue that has dominated her tenure remains unsolved. GOP challenger Jay Lucas says he can cut other state spending enough to meet the state Supreme Court mandate for increased aid to education, but the polls do not show him making headway.
Sen. Judd Gregg (R) can anticipate an easy second-term win over businessman George Condodemetraky (D), a first-time candidate with an understandable name-ID problem. As usual, Rep. Charles F. Bass (R) is targeted by the Democrats but is favored over Mary Rauh (D), whose husband has been an unsuccessful candidate in the past.
Four years ago, Gov. George E. Pataki (R) was an obscure state senator, summoned by Sen. Alfonse M. D'Amato (R) to do battle with the formidable Gov. Mario M. Cuomo (D). Pataki did what was asked of him and defeated Cuomo in one of that year's most devastating losses for the Democrats. Now Pataki, riding on economic growth and tax cuts, is in a walkover against meagerly financed New York City Council Speaker Peter Vallone (D), while D'Amato struggles for his political life against Brooklyn Rep. Charles E. Schumer (D). Their wildly expensive, thoroughly nasty fight – from "putzhead" controversies to rival accusations of absenteeism – has wound up in an excruciatingly close contest. The latest rounds in the media war have gone mostly to Schumer, but it still remains a question whether he can roll up a big enough Democratic margin in the city and gain enough of the independent suburban vote to offset the Republican's huge advantage in upstate New York. Both Clintons have visited repeatedly to boost Schumer, and there is no Republican in the country Democrats are more eager to defeat. D'Amato, who has fought off difficult challenges before, has never faced as tough an opponent as Schumer. Rep. Maurice D. Hinchey (D), who has held onto a politically marginal upstate district for six years, may have a bit easier time this year. Businessman Bud Walker (R), the choice of the party establishment to challenge Hinchey, went through a serious primary challenge to deny both the Republican and Conservative Party nominations to Randall Terry, head of the antiabortion group Operation Rescue. But Terry remains on the ballot as the Right to Life Party candidate and could hinder Walker's chances in a district where Pataki will run very strongly.
Four retiring representatives virtually have handpicked their successors. Schumer's seat will go to Brooklyn Councilman Anthony Weiner (D) and Queens Rep. Thomas J. Manton (D) arranged for Assemblyman Joseph Crowley (D) to have that seat. House Rules Committee Chairman Gerald B.‚H. Solomon (R) is handing off to John Sweeney (R), a Pataki aide, and Rep. Bill Paxon (R) saw his choice, Assemblyman Tom Reynolds (R), snare the ticket to Washington from the Fingers Lake area.
Four years ago, former U.S. attorney Lincoln C. Almond (R) won the first-ever four-year term as governor over state Sen. Myrth York (D) by a narrow margin. The economy has improved, the income tax has been cut and, unlike some of his predecessors, Almond has remained untainted by scandal. But York has polished her skills as a candidate and is leading Almond by a few points in some polls. Republicans say Almond is a better governor than he is a politician, but he also is leading a state that elects a lot more Democrats than Republicans. The saving grace for the governor may be that a number of key Democrats in Providence, where York must get much of her vote if she is to win, appear to be unenthusiastic about her campaign. That could be enough to make the difference.
Incumbents rarely lose here – and 1998 looks to be no exception. Gov. Howard Dean (D) gave opponents a ready-made issue by championing controversial Act 60, which shifts school property taxes from more affluent communities to poorer ones. But so far, former state legislator Ruth E. Dwyer (R) has not been able to capitalize on it. With almost eight years behind him, Dean is likely to win two more. Sen. Patrick Leahy (D), first elected in 1974, is campaigning companionably with Fred Tuttle (R), the 79-year-old retired dairy farmer who ran to deny the nomination to a wealthy "carpetbagger" from Massachusetts and who insists he has no interest in going to Washington. The third returnee will be Rep. Bernard Sanders, the Socialist who votes with the Democrats on almost everything.
© Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company |
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