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50-State Analysis: The Pacific
Alaska | California | Hawaii | Oregon | Washington
Wild times in the Tongass. Gov. Tony Knowles (D), who won by only 536 votes in 1994, can relax and enjoy Republican chaos. Ten days before the election, the state GOP formally repudiated gubernatorial nominee John Lindauer, a publisher who concealed until recently that his wealthy wife was financing his campaign, and instead endorsed a write-in effort for the primary runner-up, state Sen. Robin Taylor. But Lindauer remains on the ballot and Knowles is way out in front.
Despite the chaos, Sen. Frank H. Murkowski (R) is headed for a fourth term over John Sonneman (D), a liberal activist with no campaign funds, and Rep. Don Young (R) has the edge over state Sen. Jim Duncan (D) in the only real contest on the ballot.
The biggest prize on the election board could become the Democrats' biggest win of this Election Day – the California governor's office. Republicans have controlled it for the last 16 years, but that may be coming to an end. Lt. Gov. Gray Davis (D), who sat outside the door of the last Democratic governor, Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown Jr. (D) as Brown's chief of staff, holds a clear lead over state Attorney General Dan Lungren, the GOP's hope to succeed term-limited Gov. Pete Wilson (R). Davis, a veteran state officeholder, figured out early in the year that his experience would be viewed as an asset by voters who are relatively pleased with conditions in the state, as long as he was not identified with any radical positions and had enough money to make his views known. Although Lungren faced no primary, he delayed beginning his general election TV campaign – and then focused almost entirely on the crime issue, which was his strength. But Davis blunted that line of attack by endorsing the death penalty and three-strikes legislation. The Democrat relentlessly pushed the debate into issues such as abortion, where Lungren was more conservative than the pro-choice Wilson and than most California voters. Using votes Lungren had cast as a member of the House before becoming attorney general, Davis did much the same thing on education, the environment and guns. The result: After losing four straight gubernatorial races with African American or female candidates, Democrats may have found a less exciting but more marketable candidate. Lungren's managers insist he still has a chance to pull it out, and Republicans take encouragement from a big absentee ballot count. But every other poll, public and private, suggests this one is in the Democratic column. The same cannot be said with confidence of the race between Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) and state Treasurer Matt Fong (R). Fong, who defeated an outspoken conservative in the primary, made headway for weeks by depicting Boxer as too far left to represent California in the capital. Male voters responded in large numbers and the gender gap that helped elect Boxer in 1992, "the Year of the Woman," swung against her. But when the Senate session ended and Boxer got back to the state, her personal grit as a campaigner began to show and the TV campaign, fueled by a treasury substantially larger than Fong's, magnified her advantage. Fong inadvertently helped her make the case that he was a waffler by responding to publicity about a sizable contribution of campaign funds to a conservative Christian group that has lobbied strenuously against gay rights, and by signing a pledge to support the policy goals of a group of gay Republican activists. Even with all that, Boxer remains a controversial figure who draws adamant opposition from farm and small-business groups. The single-digit lead she carried into the final days of the campaign makes her the favorite, but it is not solid enough to guarantee her a second term. A good deal of shuffling is in prospect for the 52-member House delegation. The Sacramento area seat of Rep. Vic Fazio (D), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, has been trending Republican, even during his 20-year tenure. With Fazio out of the way, businessman Doug Ose (R), who has put more than $1 million of his own money into the race, is favored to defeat attorney Sandie Dunn (D). A mirror image is presented in the north coast district left open when Rep. Frank Riggs (R) made a late, and futile, bid for his party's Senate nomination. That territory has become increasingly Democratic. When a strong candidate, state Sen. Mike Thompson (D), announced he would run this year, Riggs opted for the long-shot Senate contest. Napa County Supervisor Mark Luce (R) is the sacrificial opponent. The other district that could easily switch parties is the one vacated by Rep. Jane Harman (D) when she sought the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. A suburban beach area in southwest Los Angeles County, it has a healthy Republican base. Democrat Harman won close races, in part because her wealthy industrialist husband was ready to finance expensive campaigns. Both parties have nominated able candidates to succeed her. Assemblyman Steve Kuykendall (R) has represented part of the district in Sacramento. Janice Hahn (D), a city charter reform commissioner, is part of a local political dynasty; her father was a county supervisor for 40 years and her brother is city attorney. Barring a big Democratic top-of-the-ticket tide, Kuykendall is favored. A rematch of one of 1996's most celebrated House races pits freshman Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) against ex-Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R) in Orange County. Dornan challenged her victory with charges of widespread voting by illegal immigrants, but a House investigation concluded that there was insufficient evidence to unseat Sanchez. The fiery conservative has toned down his rhetoric a bit this year and has tried hard to win a share of the growing Latino vote, but Sanchez seems to have solidified her position. A number of other incumbents who won previous races by small margins are also being tested but are favored. Freshman Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) in the East Bay faces Charles Ball (R), a national security analyst, and the national GOP has put substantial money behind his bid. Rep. Lois Capps (D), who won a special election last March to fill out the term of her late husband, has a rematch with Assemblyman Tom Bordonaro (R) in Santa Barbara. Freshman Rep. Brad Sherman (D) of the San Fernando Valley is being challenged by Randy Hoffman (R), the entrepreneur head of a successful satellite navigation system firm. And veteran Rep. George E. Brown Jr. (D), a perennial target of the Republicans, has a new opponent this year in Elia Pirozzi (R), yet another wealthy businessman. Republicans are keeping a watchful eye on two of their incumbents. The first is Rep. Brian P. Bilbray (R), who won with 53 percent two years ago and has a tougher opponent in San Diego Councilwoman Christine Kehoe (D). The second is freshman Rep. James E. Rogan (R) of Pasadena, who has become a significant player in House Judiciary Committee impeachment proceedings and is favored over Barry Gordon (D), a former president of the Screen Actors Guild.
Two other districts will have new members of the incumbents' party. Rep. Jay Kim (R), convicted of accepting illegal foreign campaign contributions, lost his bid for renomination to Assemblyman Gary Miller (R) in a safe Republican district. The seat of retiring Rep. Esteban Edward Torres (D) is ticketed for state Rep. Grace Napolitano (D).
The economy, shaken by the collapse of many Asian markets, has created enormous problems for the dominant Democratic Party here. Worst hit is Gov. Benjamin J. Cayetano (D), who went into the final weekend trailing Maui Mayor Linda Crockett Lingle (R), one of the few candidates who can boast of never running a negative ad. She got a boost out of the final debate and a Honolulu newspaper endorsement, but her funds are limited and some Republicans worry that labor and the Democrats may yet rally the faithful for Cayetano.
While Republicans are hopeful about the governorship, their chances of defeating Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) virtually disappeared when their original candidate was forced by illness to withdraw from the race.
Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) is on his way to an easy second-term victory over controversial conservative activist Bill Sizemore (R), who is more successful as a promoter of initiative campaigns than as a candidate. Sen. Ron Wyden (D) has even less to worry about from lightly financed and little-known state Sen. John Lim (R). The best race in the state is in the suburban Portland district vacated by Rep. Elizabeth Furse (D). Molly Bordonaro (R), a youthful political activist who tried for the nomination in 1996, won it this year and immediately began moderating her conservative stands to make herself more electable. She out-campaigned somewhat reticent attorney David Wu (D) and established a lead until last week, when tapes of her earlier support for school vouchers and a seeming flip-flop on the assault weapons ban gave Wu fresh ammunition for his charges of opportunism. The race is now a tossup.
Agriculture Committee Chairman Robert F. "Bob" Smith (R) is retiring for the second time – he came back in 1996 to save the seat when his successor was mired in scandal – and his handpicked replacement is former state Sen. Greg Walden (R), an alumnus of Smith's staff.
The only all-woman Senate race matches the firepower of well-financed Sen. Patty Murray (D) against the fire of Rep. Linda Smith (R), who commands a devoted army of anti-tax and anti-abortion supporters. Everything points to a Murray second-term victory, but Smith has a history of upsetting incumbents, so there would be no surprise if she at least makes it close. But lack of support from national GOP leaders, who regard her as a maverick, and from big business, which prefers Murray's liberal trade position, has made it hard for Smith to make her case. Smith's old Vancouver district is likely to switch parties. Brian Baird (D), a psychology professor who almost defeated Smith in 1996, has criticized state Sen. Don Benton (R) for absenteeism and has taken a clear lead. Rep. Rick A. White (R), a second-termer from suburban Seattle, has to hold off an aggressive challenge from ex-Rep. Jay Inslee (D), who shifted his base from another district he represented for one term, in order to try again. White will lose a few votes to conservative activist Bruce Craswell, a third-party candidate, but perhaps not enough to give Inslee the edge. The race is a tossup.
© Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company |
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