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50-State Analysis: The South
Alabama | Arkansas | Florida | Georgia | Kentucky
Few governors have talked their way into more trouble than Fob James Jr. (R), and he is paying the price. After a tough nomination fight, in which his Republican opponent criticized James for working harder on getting prayer into schools than jobs into Alabama, Lt. Gov. Don Siegelman (D) has kept James on the defensive by promoting the idea – borrowed from Georgia – of a state lottery to finance thousands of college scholarships. The numbers vary, but polls consistently show Siegelman on top.
Sen. Richard C. Shelby (R), who, like James, was first elected as a Democrat, has minimal opposition for a third term from Clayton Suddith (D), a former county commissioner. In the key House race, Democrats are running Don Bevill, son of Tom Bevill (D), who held the seat for 30 years until his retirement in 1996, against freshman Rep. Robert Aderholt (R), but nostalgia does not seem to be working and Bevill has had trouble raising money. A GOP challenge to Rep. Bud Cramer (D), one of the few surviving white Democratic representatives in the Deep South, also has faded.
Clinton's home state has become more Republican since he left for the White House. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) was elevated from lieutenant governor in 1996, when Clinton's successor, Gov. Jim Guy Tucker (D) was convicted of financial fraud in a Whitewater-related case and resigned. Huckabee, a conservative minister, has pursued moderate policies and has become a solid favorite for election to a full term over attorney Bill Bristow (D). The surprise is the emergence very late in the campaign of the possibility Republicans might win their second Senate seat since Clinton's departure. For months, it appeared former representative Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D), who left the House two years ago to focus on her expanding family, would easily win the seat of retiring Sen. Dale Bumpers (D). State Sen. Fay Boozman (R), a physician in private life, got off to a slow start, but now he has a full-scale media campaign and Democrats concede the race has closed rapidly. Lincoln is a good campaigner and is a slight favorite to hold on.
Freshman Rep. Victor Snyder (D), another of the few white Democrats in the South, has not had much time to entrench himself in this Little Rock seat and faces a credible opponent in state Sen. Phil Wyrick (R). The race is tight, but Snyder may have the edge.
The second time looks like magic for Jeb Bush (R), who lost narrowly to Gov. Lawton Chiles (D) in 1994. With Chiles term-limited out, Lt. Gov. Buddy MacKay (D) is opposing the former president's son and finding it a struggle. It took him (and Vice President Gore) quite a while to settle an intramural quarrel with black legislative leaders. MacKay's money has been short; and Bush has run a skillful campaign, while deflecting critical stories about his business career, in a state where Republican registration numbers improve with each year's influx of retirees. The race has closed as MacKay solidified the Democratic base, but a Bush loss would be a surprise.
Sen. Bob Graham (D), cruising to a third term over state Sen. Charlie Crist (R), has lent a hand to MacKay. Democrats were worried that a string of allegations about financial improprieties might defeat Jacksonville Rep. Corrine Brown (D). But her opponent, minister and NAACP official Bill Randall (R), first denied and then admitted 10 days ago fathering an 18-year-old son with another woman and briefly considered dropping out of the race. With Democrats coming home, Brown should hold on.
If Gov. Zell Miller (D) were on the ballot again, he's popular enough to win by acclamation. But the race to succeed him, between veteran state Rep. Roy Barnes (D) and businessman Guy Millner (R), is close. Barnes is a moderate Democrat, like Miller, and Millner, who finances a big part of his own campaigns, has not been able to paint him as a liberal. In two previous races – against Miller in 1994 and against Sen. Max Cleland (D) in 1996 – Millner has come within a single percentage point of winning. To become the first GOP governor since Reconstruction, he will have to break through his own ceiling – and it may be tough.
Sen. Paul Coverdell (R) has an easier time in his second-term race against Michael Coles (D), the millionaire former owner of the Great American Cookie Company, who tried two years ago to defeat Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) in another self-financed race.
No Senate race in the country has been closer all along than the battle between Reps. Jim Bunning (R) and Scotty Baesler (D) for the seat of retiring Sen. Wendell H. Ford (D). Bunning has emphasized his moderate stances and his role as a protector of Social Security as chairman of the House Ways and Means subcommittee that handles that issue. Baesler, who is a centrist Democrat, has talked a great deal about campaign finance reform, a not-too-subtle slam at Sen. Mitch McConnell (R), Bunning's most ardent home state backer and the leader of Senate filibusters against bills to change the money system. Democrats say Baesler needs a healthy turnout to win, and Republicans figure their voters are more likely to show up at the polls. Pick' em.
Some swapping may be in prospect for House seats. In Bunning's northern Kentucky district, former County Executive Ken Lucas (D) holds a narrow edge over state Sen. Gex "Jay" Williams (R), if only because Williams has had multiple controversies in his campaign and Lucas is conservative enough to match the district's preferences. In Baesler's Lexington district, the reverse holds. Democrats nominated a liberal, state Sen. Ernesto Scorsone (D), while former state representative Ernest Fletcher (R), who lost to Baesler in 1996, is better known and better financed. The earlier challenge to freshman Rep. Anne Northup (R) seems to have disappeared.
Technically, Louisiana is holding its primary on Tuesday, with a runoff on Dec. 5 for those who fail to win a majority the first time around. Sen. John Breaux (D) will not be in a runoff; he has only nominal opposition for a third term.
The best race in the state is around Baton Rouge, where Rep. Richard H. Baker (R) faces his strongest challenger in attorney Marjorie McKeithen (D), whose grandfather was governor and whose father, a Republican, is secretary of state. The African American percentage was increased significantly by a 1996 redistricting and Breaux is lending a hand in the Democratic turnout effort. Baker is favored.
The retirement of Rep. Mike Parker (R) opens a rare opportunity for Democrats to reclaim a Deep South seat. State highway commissioner Ronnie Shows (D), who formerly represented part of the district in the state Senate, is the kind of conservative populist the South used to elect in large numbers. Jackson attorney Delbert Hosemann (R) is not quite as easy a fit, but Parker won easily here for 10 years and Clinton lost the district both times he ran, despite its 41 percent African American population. It's a tossup.
The Zell Miller effect has been felt here, as it has in Alabama. Democratic gubernatorial candidates in both states latched onto the Georgia governor's concept of a state lottery to finance college scholarships. But Jim Hodges (D), the former leader of the South Carolina state House, has created some other issues that may make it more likely for Gov. David M. Beasley (R) to win reelection than his Alabama counterpart. Hodges rode the lottery issue to a clear lead in private polls in early October, forcing Beasley to abandon his dogged opposition and say he would support a voter referendum on the issue. At the same time, Beasley struck back hard by blaming Democrats for spreading false rumors about an alleged affair with his former press secretary. Since those twin events, the governor has been looking stronger. He has placed Hodges on the defensive about money fueling the Democratic campaign from video poker interests eager to expand their operations. Democrats say Hodges still has a chance to win, but the odds in this Republican-trending state clearly have shifted in Beasley's favor. As Beasley has come back, there are signs Rep. Bob Inglis (R) also has closed ground in his challenge to 32-year veteran Sen. Ernest F. "Fritz" Hollings (D). Hollings, who was governor of South Carolina when Inglis was born in 1959, has appeared to get the better of his challenger by mocking his self-righteous tone in their debates. But a more controversial Republican congressman almost surprised Hollings in 1992, and this one could be a sleeper.
Inglis is handing off his Greenville House seat to a former campaign adviser, advertising man Jim DeMint (R).
Democrats could find no one among their current officeholders to challenge Gov. Don Sundquist (R) so the nomination went to John Jay Hooker (D), the onetime head of Minnie Pearl's Chicken who first ran for the nomination for governor (unsuccessfully) in 1966 and more recently has been a sidekick of both Jesse Jackson and Ross Perot. Sundquist gets a second term and no change is in store in the House delegation.
© Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company |
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