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50-State Analysis: The Southwest
Arizona | New Mexico | Oklahoma | Texas
The late Barry Goldwater's state is not going to desert the GOP this year, as it did in going for Clinton in 1996. Gov. Jane Hull (R), who took over when former governor Fife Symington (R) was convicted of financial fraud last year, is comfortably ahead of former Phoenix mayor Paul Johnson (D). Sen. John McCain (R), who is expected by many of his old associates to jump into the presidential race, is barely getting a warmup contest from attorney Ed Ranger (D). Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), the target of a huge labor ad campaign in 1996, has gained a seat on Ways and Means and has been less of a blowtorch on the House floor than in his first term. The result: an easier time in his rematch against former state party chairman Steve Owens (D), who came within 2,474 votes of winning in 1996.
Gov. Gary Johnson (R), a successful businessman and avid outdoorsman, was elected four years ago as a fresh face, defeating the old-time Democratic incumbent, Bruce King, who had been governor the first time back in the 1970s. In office, Johnson has struggled for control of state policy with the Democratic legislature, using his veto as his main weapon. Not surprisingly, he has less of a record of accomplishments than the GOP governors who are coasting to reelection in neighboring states. Democrats thought they had the perfect candidate to beat Johnson in former Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez (D). With a political base in the big city and ethnic appeal in northern New Mexico, Chavez seemed well-positioned. But a heavy GOP TV blitz has weakened him at home and Johnson appears to be headed for reelection. In a special election last June for an Albuquerque House seat left vacant by the death of Rep. Steve Schiff (R), Heather Wilson (R), who served in Johnson's administration, defeated state Sen. Phil Maloof (D), member of a prominent and wealthy local family. The campaign was marked by numerous Maloof gaffes, and their rematch has furnished more evidence that he may not be ready for prime time. Wilson's margin is likely to expand.
It's a different story in the northern district that became open when Rep. Bill Richardson (D) was named ambassador to the United Nations in 1997. (He's now secretary of Energy). The Democrats picked an inept candidate for the special election; many of their normal supporters voted for Green Party nominee Carol Miller, and the race was won by Bill Redmond (R), a minister from Los Alamos. Redmond has adapted his conservatism to a district with a Democratic constituency of Hispanics and academics, but now he faces a tougher foe in state Attorney General Tom Udall (D), son of former interior secretary Stewart Udall. Miller is running again, but Udall has persuaded some Green Party leaders to back him, and she seems likely to siphon off less than the 17 percent of the vote she won in the special election. The upshot is that Redmond may be the most endangered Republican incumbent in the country.
The all-Republican lineup should remain intact. Gov. Frank Keating (R), who won bipartisan praise after the Oklahoma City bombing, is headed for a second term over state Rep. Laura Wooldridge Boyd (D), a family therapist. Assistant Senate Majority Leader Don Nickles (R) has an even wider lead over Democrat Don Carroll, an air conditioner repairman who barely won a runoff primary over a woman who had died after filing her nomination papers. None of the six GOP representatives has a serious challenge. Democrats hope retirements or self-imposed term limits open some opportunities for them in the next century.
It's name-the-margin time in Republican Gov. George W. Bush's romp to a second term that many assume will be a prelude to a presidential candidacy. The betting starts about 65 percent and goes up, but perhaps the only person who will remember beyond Tuesday is his unlucky opponent, state Land Commissioner Garry Mauro (D). National Republicans, worried about the Latino vote, will watch to see how well Bush succeeds in his heavily targeted effort to enlist Hispanic support. But even more crucial is the separate race for lieutenant governor, whose outcome Bush has said will be "a factor" in his decision whether to seek the presidency. Any doubt about the importance the governor attaches to that contest can be resolved by looking at the latest Republican ad, in which both the governor and his father, the former president, lavish praise on Agriculture Commissioner Rick Perry, the GOP candidate for the number two job. After a campaign in which both sides have spent record sums, perhaps as much as $20 million altogether, polls show Perry in a statistical dead-heat with his opponent, state Comptroller John Sharp (D). The Bush camp appears confident that the massive effort to contact voters and urge a straight-ticket Republican ballot will carry in Perry and most, perhaps all, the others on the slate. They do not seem worried about raising expectations. The most endangered member of the Texas delegation is Rep. Charles Stenholm (D), a conservative leader on budget and agriculture issues. Stenholm has a rematch with dentist Rudy Izzard (R), who got 47 percent of the vote in 1996 and never quit campaigning. Stenholm has to deal with low farm prices, a growing Republican population in the Fort Worth suburbs and attacks from several outside groups – to say nothing of the Bush coattails. The combination may be just enough to end his 20-year House career. Once again, Republicans are forcing Rep. Martin Frost, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, to spend heavily and work hard to defend his Dallas-Fort Worth district. The challenger this time is management consultant Shawn Terry (R). Rep. Henry Gonzalez has represented his part of San Antonio since 1961, so who better to succeed him on retirement than district judge Charlie Gonzalez (D), his own son?
© Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company |
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