Friday, Aug. 13, 1999

The Candidates
Read Washington Post stories and profiles of the GOP candidates, listed below in the order they will appear on the straw poll ballot. Write-in candidates are not allowed.
• Lamar Alexander
• Gary Bauer
• Pat Buchanan
• George W. Bush
• Elizabeth Dole
• Steve Forbes
• Orrin Hatch
• John Kasich (withdrew from race)
• Alan Keyes
• John McCain (not campaigning in Iowa)
• Dan Quayle
• Bob Smith (joined U.S. Taxpayers Party)

The Voters
Only Iowa Republicans who pay $25 and attend the event can vote. The candidates will pay most of the entry fees for their supporters. In the past, candidates have been able to bus in supporters from around the country. Between 10,000 and 12,000 people are expected to vote.
• Iowa GOP Official Rules

Why is this important?
The straw poll is mostly an expectations game. The "winners" are those candidates who do better than the pundits' expectations. Candidates who do not live up to predictions are likely to have a tougher time raising money. Even the names of the candidates' campaign vehicles underscore the importance of clearing this hurdle: George W. Bush's campaign plane is called "Great Expectations" and Lamar Alexander's bus is called "Exceeding Expectations."

The straw poll is one of the few times that Iowa voters get to hear from most of the Republican candidates side-by-side. In addition to the 10 minutes that each candidate will address the crowd, they will also meet with voters during day-long parties paid for by the campaigns. Forbes, for example, is hosting a free concert by country music singer Ronnie Milsap.

When is it?
The vote is between 4 p.m. and 9:15 p.m. EDT.

Where is it held?
The James H. Hilton Coliseum, the basketball arena at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa.
• Hilton Coliseum

How did the straw poll become so influential?
The Des Moines Register created the Iowa straw poll in 1975 to gauge the strength of the Democratic presidential candidates. Over the years it has evolved into the first make-or-break contest for those seeking the presidency.

The poll's growing influence is tied to some past successes of long-shot candidates. In 1995, Republican Sens. Bob Dole and Phil Gramm tied in the GOP straw vote and in 1987 Christian conservative Pat Robertson won. Such results have led to today's conventional wisdom that some from the large GOP field may be forced to drop out if they don't do well Saturday.

The last Democratic straw poll was held in 1983. The Democrats usually hold their version at the state party's Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner in October. A decision has not yet been made on whether to conduct a Democratic poll this year.
• Iowa's GOP Poll: It's Straw, All Right (The Post, Aug. 8)
• Iowa Straw Poll Could Break Some GOP Backs (The Post, July 8)

Where does the term "straw poll" come from?
William Safire's "New Political Dictionary" says that author John Selden (1584-1654) coined the term when he wrote "take a straw and throw it up into the air – you may see by that which way the wind is. More solid things do not show the complexion of the times so well..." Safire says that modern use began with the Cleveland Leader newspaper in 1866.
• Straw Polls Have Played Role in Political History (The Des Moines Register, Aug. 9)

Latest Poll Results
Results from an Aug. 2-5 telephone poll of 505 Republicans who said they plan to attend the 2000 precinct caucuses. Polling conducted by Personal Marketing Research Inc. of Davenport, Iowa. Margin of error is +/- 4.3 percent.
Bush: 31 percent
Undecided: 27 percent
Dole: 11 percent
Forbes: 11 percent
Buchanan: 4 percent
Quayle: 4 percent
Bauer: 3 percent
Alexander: 2 percent
Keyes: 2 percent
McCain: 2 percent
Other: 2 percent
Hatch: 0 percent


1996 Results

Candidate	Straw Poll Rank	Primary Rank
Bob Dole	Tied 1st	1
Phil Gramm	Tied 1st	5
Pat Buchanan	3	2
Lamar Alexander	4	3
Alan Keyes	5	6
Morry Taylor	6	Tied 8th
Richard Lugar	7	7
Pete Wilson	8	*
Bob Dornan	9	Tied 8th
Arlen Specter	10	*
Steve Forbes	*	4

* Did not compete.