Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone December 13-17, 2007, among a random sample of 501 Iowan adults likely to vote in the Republican caucus. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not?
Yes No No opinion
12/17/07 100 0 0
11/18/07 100 0 0
7/31/07 100 0 0
2. How closely are you following the 2008 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
12/17/07 95 51 44 5 4 1 0
11/18/07 93 48 44 7 6 1 0
7/31/07 88 35 53 12 10 2 0
3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend one of the Iowa presidential caucuses that will be held in your precinct in January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Certain Probably Chances Less than Will not No
to attend attend 50/50 50/50 attend (vol.) opinion
12/17/07 51 49 0 0 0 0
11/18/07 47 53 0 0 0 0
7/31/07 39 61 0 0 0 0
4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct?
Democratic caucus Republican caucus
12/17/07 0 100
11/18/07 0 100
7/31/07 0 100
5. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson), who would you support?
NET LEANED VOTE:
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Mike Huckabee 35 24 8
Mitt Romney 27 28 26
Fred Thompson 9 15 13
Rudy Giuliani 8 13 14
Ron Paul 8 6 2
John McCain 6 6 8
Tom Tancredo 2 2 5
Duncan Hunter 1 1 1
Other (vol.) 0 0 1
Tommy Thompson NA NA 4
Sam Brownback NA NA 5
None of these (vol.) 1 1 4
No opinion 4 4 7
6. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely support (NAME) as your first choice, or is there a chance you could change your mind and support someone else as your first choice? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
support NET Unlikely Good opinion
12/17/07 54 42 21 22 4
11/18/07 36 59 26 34 5
Trend:
Mitt Romney
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
support NET Unlikely Good opinion
12/17/07 49 47 28 19 5
11/18/07 29 70 28 42 2
Mike Huckabee
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
support NET Unlikely Good opinion
12/17/07 60 36 19 16 4
11/18/07 48 45 19 26 7
*Sample size too small for other candidates.
7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) How enthusiastic are you about supporting (NAMED CANDIDATE) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
12/17/07 94 45 49 5 4 1 1
11/18/07 91 34 57 8 8 1 1
Trend:
Mitt Romney
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
12/17/07 94 43 51 6 5 1 1
11/18/07 94 28 65 6 6 0 0
Mike Huckabee
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
12/17/07 97 48 49 3 3 * 0
11/18/07 94 50 44 4 4 0 2
8. What is the single most important issue in your choice for the Republican candidate for president?
Immigration/Illegal immigration 17 13 Terrorism/National security 9 14 Iraq/War in Iraq 9 10 Abortion 9 10 Economy/Jobs 7 9 Ethics/Honesty/Corruption in government 7 4 Morals/Family values 7 7 Taxes 6 6 Health care 4 8 Federal budget deficit 4 2 Education 2 1 Social Security 1 1 Environment 1 0 Housing/Mortgages 0 0 Global warming 0 0 Iran/Situation in Iran 0 0 Farming/Agriculture issues 0 0 Foreign policy * * Energy/Ethanol * * None/Nothing * 0 Other 11 10 No opinion 5 5
8a. (IF MENTIONED MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE) Is there one other issue that's nearly as important?
12/17/07 11/18/07
Immigration/Illegal
immigration 14 12
Iraq/War in Iraq 11 16
Taxes 9 8
Terrorism/National security 9 7
Economy/Jobs 7 8
Health care 6 8
Abortion 6 6
Morals/Family values 4 3
Education 3 2
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption
in government 3 1
Federal budget deficit 2 3
Social Security 1 3
Foreign policy 1 3
Energy/Ethanol 1 1
Farming/Agriculture issues 1 0
Environment * *
Housing/Mortgages * *
Iran/Situation in Iran * *
None/Nothing 6 4
Other 9 8
No opinion 8 6
8/8a NET: Top two important issues combined.
12/17/07 11/18/07
Immigration/Illegal
immigration 30 24
Iraq/War in Iraq 19 24
Terrorism/National security 17 21
Abortion 15 15
Economy/Jobs 14 16
Taxes 14 13
Morals/Family values 11 10
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption
in government 10 5
Health care 10 16
Federal budget deficit 6 4
Education 5 2
Social Security 2 4
Foreign policy 1 3
Energy/Ethanol 1 2
Farming/Agriculture issues 1 0
Environment 1 *
Housing/Mortgages * *
Iran/Situation in Iran * *
None/Nothing * 0
Other 18 15
No opinion 5 5
9. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think (ITEM)?
12/17/07 - Summary Table
Other/None/
Giuliani McCain Romney Huckabee Thompson No opinion
a. is the strongest
leader 20 12 29 24 6 10
b. best understands
the problems of
people like you 5 6 23 35 8 23
c. is the most honest
and trustworthy 3 7 23 35 10 22
d. has the best
experience to
be president 16 18 28 19 6 14
e. has campaigned the
hardest in Iowa 3 1 61 20 1 13
f. has the best chance
of getting elected
president in
November 2008 19 4 35 24 4 14
g. best reflects the
core values of the
Republican Party 5 8 25 34 11 18
Trend where available:
a. is the strongest leader
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Mitt Romney 29 30 23
Mike Huckabee 24 12 4
Rudy Giuliani 20 31 26
John McCain 12 6 11
Fred Thompson 6 9 9
Ron Paul 3 3 *
Tom Tancredo 1 1 2
Duncan Hunter * * *
Newt Gingrich NA NA 5
Sam Brownback NA NA 4
Tommy Thompson NA NA 2
All of them 1 * *
None of them 0 2 1
No opinion 5 6 12
b. best understands the problems of people like you
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Mike Huckabee 35 25 10
Mitt Romney 23 21 21
Ron Paul 9 8 2
Fred Thompson 8 11 9
John McCain 6 5 7
Rudy Giuliani 5 8 13
Tom Tancredo 2 5 4
Duncan Hunter 1 1 1
Newt Gingrich NA NA 3
Tommy Thompson NA NA 5
Sam Brownback NA NA 7
All of them 2 3 1
None of them 5 6 5
No opinion 5 7 12
c. is the most honest and trustworthy
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Mike Huckabee 35 26 10
Mitt Romney 23 25 21
Fred Thompson 10 13 11
Ron Paul 8 6 2
John McCain 7 8 10
Rudy Giuliani 3 4 7
Tom Tancredo 2 4 3
Duncan Hunter * 1 1
Newt Gingrich NA NA 3
Tommy Thompson NA NA 5
Sam Brownback NA NA 7
All of them 2 3 1
None of them 4 5 5
No opinion 5 8 13
d. has the best experience to be president
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Mitt Romney 28 31 21
Mike Huckabee 19 12 4
John McCain 18 13 18
Rudy Giuliani 16 21 22
Fred Thompson 6 9 5
Ron Paul 3 3 1
Duncan Hunter 1 * *
Tom Tancredo 1 1 *
Sam Brownback NA NA 3
Newt Gingrich NA NA 8
Tommy Thompson NA NA 4
All of them 1 1 *
None of them 3 2 2
No opinion 5 7 12
e. has campaigned the hardest in Iowa
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Mitt Romney 61 63 49
Mike Huckabee 20 8 1
Rudy Giuliani 3 4 6
Ron Paul 2 2 *
John McCain 1 5 7
Fred Thompson 1 3 *
Tom Tancredo 0 1 4
Duncan Hunter * 0 0
Tommy Thompson NA NA 5
Sam Brownback NA NA 4
Newt Gingrich NA NA 1
All of them 2 2 2
None of them 1 3 5
No opinion 8 11 16
f. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Mitt Romney 35 30 26
Mike Huckabee 24 12 1
Rudy Giuliani 19 32 31
John McCain 4 3 5
Fred Thompson 4 8 11
Ron Paul 2 2 1
Duncan Hunter * 0 0
Tom Tancredo 0 * 1
Newt Gingrich NA NA 3
Tommy Thompson NA NA 3
Sam Brownback NA NA 2
All of them * * 0
None of them 1 4 3
No opinion 11 9 14
g. No trend.
10. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust most to handle (ITEM)?
12/17/07 - Summary Table
Other/None/
Giuliani McCain Romney Huckabee Thompson No opinion
a. The economy 9 7 35 25 7 17
c. The U.S. campaign
against terrorism 26 19 16 17 8 14
d. Immigration issues 9 7 24 22 10 28
e. The situation
in Iraq 16 23 18 18 7 18
f. Social issues, such
as abortion and
gay civil unions 5 5 25 37 10 18
g. Taxes 8 7 28 25 10 22
Trend where available:
a. The economy
12/17/07 11/18/07
Mitt Romney 35 36
Mike Huckabee 25 16
Rudy Giuliani 9 15
Fred Thompson 7 11
John McCain 7 5
Ron Paul 6 5
Duncan Hunter 1 1
Tom Tancredo 1 1
All of them * *
None of them 3 2
No opinion 7 8
c. The U.S. campaign against terrorism
12/17/07 11/18/07
Rudy Giuliani 26 33
John McCain 19 15
Mitt Romney 16 15
Mike Huckabee 17 10
Fred Thompson 8 11
Ron Paul 4 5
Tom Tancredo 2 4
Duncan Hunter 1 1
All of them 1 1
None of them 1 2
No opinion 5 4
d. Immigration issues
12/17/07 11/18/07
Mitt Romney 24 27
Mike Huckabee 22 13
Tom Tancredo 11 13
Fred Thompson 10 11
Rudy Giuliani 9 9
John McCain 7 9
Ron Paul 7 6
Duncan Hunter 1 1
All of them 1 1
None of them 2 3
No opinion 7 8
e. The situation in Iraq
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
John McCain 23 20 21
Rudy Giuliani 16 19 17
Mitt Romney 18 19 15
Mike Huckabee 18 12 3
Fred Thompson 7 11 8
Ron Paul 6 5 1
Tom Tancredo 2 3 1
Duncan Hunter 1 1 1
All of them 1 1 1
None of them 3 3 7
No opinion 6 6 16
f. Social issues, such as abortion and gay civil unions
12/17/07 11/18/07
Mike Huckabee 37 28
Mitt Romney 25 25
Fred Thompson 10 16
Rudy Giuliani 5 11
Ron Paul 6 6
John McCain 5 4
Tom Tancredo 1 2
Duncan Hunter 1 1
All of them * *
None of them 2 2
No opinion 8 6
g. No trend.
11. Regardless of who you may support, would you say the more you hear about Mike Huckabee the (more you like him), the more you hear about him the (less you like him), or has your opinion about him not changed lately one way or the other?
More you Less you Opinion has No
like him like him not changed opinion
12/17/07 37 15 45 2
12. Does the fact that Mitt Romney is a Mormon make you (more) likely to vote for him, (less) likely to vote for him, or doesn't it make a difference in your vote?
More likely Less likely Wouldn't matter No opinion
12/17/07 2 20 78 *
Compare to: New Hampshire
More likely Less likely Wouldn't matter No opinion
12/3/07 3 9 88 *
13. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?
Have attended First caucus No opinion
12/17/07 59 41 *
11/18/07 66 34 *
7/31/07 76 24 0
14. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
------ Legal ------ ----- Illegal -----
All Most Most All No
NET cases cases NET cases cases opinion
12/17/07 23 7 16 74 49 25 3
11/18/07 23 6 17 75 51 24 1
15. How would you describe the tone of the Republican caucus campaign so far? Would you say it has been mostly positive, about equally positive and negative, or mostly negative in tone?
Mostly Equally positive Mostly No
positive and negative negative opinion
12/17/07 66 29 3 2
***END***
