Washington Post-ABC News Poll

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone December 13-17, 2007, among a random sample of 501 Iowan adults likely to vote in the Republican caucus. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not?

           Yes   No   No opinion
12/17/07   100    0        0 
11/18/07   100    0        0 
7/31/07    100    0        0

2. How closely are you following the 2008 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

        
                     ---- Closely -----   ---- Not closely -----     No
           NET   Very   Smwt.   NET   Not too   At all   opinion  
12/17/07   95     51     44      5        4        1        0 
11/18/07   93     48     44      7        6        1        0   
7/31/07    88     35     53     12       10        2        0  

3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend one of the Iowa presidential caucuses that will be held in your precinct in January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

            
           Certain    Probably   Chances   Less than     Will not        No 
           to attend    attend     50/50      50/50     attend (vol.)   opinion
12/17/07      51          49         0          0             0            0 
11/18/07      47          53         0          0             0            0
7/31/07       39          61         0          0             0            0

4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct?

          
                   Democratic caucus   Republican caucus
12/17/07            0                 100
11/18/07            0                 100
7/31/07             0                 100

5. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson), who would you support?

NET LEANED VOTE: 
                        12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Mike Huckabee              35         24         8
Mitt Romney                27         28        26
Fred Thompson               9         15        13
Rudy Giuliani               8         13        14
Ron Paul                    8          6         2
John McCain                 6          6         8
Tom Tancredo                2          2         5
Duncan Hunter               1          1         1
Other (vol.)                0          0         1
Tommy Thompson             NA         NA         4
Sam Brownback              NA         NA         5
None of these (vol.)        1          1         4
No opinion                  4          4         7

6. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely support (NAME) as your first choice, or is there a chance you could change your mind and support someone else as your first choice? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

          Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No 
            support     NET   Unlikely   Good   opinion
12/17/07       54       42       21       22       4
11/18/07       36       59       26       34       5 

Trend:

Mitt Romney

           Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No 
            support     NET   Unlikely   Good   opinion
12/17/07       49       47       28       19       5
11/18/07       29       70       28       42       2

Mike Huckabee

           Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No 
            support     NET   Unlikely   Good   opinion

12/17/07       60       36       19       16       4
11/18/07       48       45       19       26       7

*Sample size too small for other candidates.

7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) How enthusiastic are you about supporting (NAMED CANDIDATE) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

                     --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
           NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
12/17/07   94     45      49      5       4           1          1
11/18/07   91     34      57      8       8           1          1

Trend:

Mitt Romney

           --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
           NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
12/17/07   94     43      51      6       5           1          1
11/18/07   94     28      65      6       6           0          0

Mike Huckabee

           --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
           NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
12/17/07   97     48      49      3       3           *          0
11/18/07   94     50      44      4       4           0          2

8. What is the single most important issue in your choice for the Republican candidate for president?

    
Immigration/Illegal 
 immigration                     17         13
Terrorism/National security       9         14
Iraq/War in Iraq                  9         10
Abortion                          9         10
Economy/Jobs                      7          9
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption 
 in government                    7          4
Morals/Family values              7          7
Taxes                             6          6
Health care                       4          8
Federal budget deficit            4          2
Education                         2          1
Social Security                   1          1
Environment                       1          0 
Housing/Mortgages                 0          0
Global warming                    0          0
Iran/Situation in Iran            0          0 
Farming/Agriculture issues        0          0
Foreign policy                    *          *
Energy/Ethanol                    *          * 
None/Nothing                      *          0
Other                            11         10
No opinion                        5          5

8a. (IF MENTIONED MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE) Is there one other issue that's nearly as important?


                              12/17/07   11/18/07
Immigration/Illegal 
 immigration                     14         12
Iraq/War in Iraq                 11         16
Taxes                             9          8 
Terrorism/National security       9          7
Economy/Jobs                      7          8
Health care                       6          8
Abortion                          6          6
Morals/Family values              4          3
Education                         3          2
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption 
 in government                    3          1
Federal budget deficit            2          3
Social Security                   1          3
Foreign policy                    1          3
Energy/Ethanol                    1          1
Farming/Agriculture issues        1          0
Environment                       *          * 
Housing/Mortgages                 *          *
Iran/Situation in Iran            *          * 
None/Nothing                      6          4
Other                             9          8
No opinion                        8          6

8/8a NET: Top two important issues combined.

                                12/17/07   11/18/07
Immigration/Illegal 
 immigration                     30         24
Iraq/War in Iraq                 19         24
Terrorism/National security      17         21
Abortion                         15         15
Economy/Jobs                     14         16
Taxes                            14         13
Morals/Family values             11         10
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption 
 in government                   10          5
Health care                      10         16
Federal budget deficit            6          4
Education                         5          2
Social Security                   2          4
Foreign policy                    1          3
Energy/Ethanol                    1          2
Farming/Agriculture issues        1          0
Environment                       1          * 
Housing/Mortgages                 *          *
Iran/Situation in Iran            *          * 
None/Nothing                      *          0
Other                            18         15
No opinion                        5          5

9. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think (ITEM)?

12/17/07 - Summary Table

                                                                    Other/None/
                      Giuliani  McCain  Romney  Huckabee  Thompson  No opinion
a. is the strongest 
leader                   20       12      29       24         6         10
b. best understands 
   the problems of 
   people like you        5        6      23       35         8         23
c. is the most honest 
   and trustworthy        3        7      23       35        10         22
d. has the best 
   experience to 
   be president          16       18      28       19         6         14
e. has campaigned the
   hardest in Iowa        3        1      61       20         1         13
f. has the best chance  
   of getting elected  
   president in 
   November 2008         19        4      35       24         4         14
g. best reflects the
   core values of the
   Republican Party       5        8      25       34        11         18  

Trend where available:

a. is the strongest leader

                 12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Mitt Romney         29         30        23
Mike Huckabee       24         12         4
Rudy Giuliani       20         31        26
John McCain         12          6        11
Fred Thompson        6          9         9
Ron Paul             3          3         *
Tom Tancredo         1          1         2
Duncan Hunter        *          *         *
Newt Gingrich       NA         NA         5
Sam Brownback       NA         NA         4
Tommy Thompson      NA         NA         2
All of them          1          *         *
None of them         0          2         1
No opinion           5          6        12

b. best understands the problems of people like you   

                 12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Mike Huckabee       35         25        10
Mitt Romney         23         21        21
Ron Paul             9          8         2
Fred Thompson        8         11         9
John McCain          6          5         7
Rudy Giuliani        5          8        13
Tom Tancredo         2          5         4
Duncan Hunter        1          1         1
Newt Gingrich       NA         NA         3
Tommy Thompson      NA         NA         5
Sam Brownback       NA         NA         7
All of them          2          3         1
None of them         5          6         5
No opinion           5          7        12

c. is the most honest and trustworthy            

                 12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Mike Huckabee       35         26        10
Mitt Romney         23         25        21
Fred Thompson       10         13        11
Ron Paul             8          6         2
John McCain          7          8        10
Rudy Giuliani        3          4         7
Tom Tancredo         2          4         3
Duncan Hunter        *          1         1
Newt Gingrich       NA         NA         3
Tommy Thompson      NA         NA         5
Sam Brownback       NA         NA         7
All of them          2          3         1
None of them         4          5         5
No opinion           5          8        13

d. has the best experience to be president

                 12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Mitt Romney         28         31        21
Mike Huckabee       19         12         4
John McCain         18         13        18
Rudy Giuliani       16         21        22
Fred Thompson        6          9         5
Ron Paul             3          3         1
Duncan Hunter        1          *         *
Tom Tancredo         1          1         *
Sam Brownback       NA         NA         3
Newt Gingrich       NA         NA         8
Tommy Thompson      NA         NA         4
All of them          1          1         *
None of them         3          2         2
No opinion           5          7        12

e. has campaigned the hardest in Iowa

                 12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Mitt Romney         61         63        49
Mike Huckabee       20          8         1
Rudy Giuliani        3          4         6
Ron Paul             2          2         *
John McCain          1          5         7
Fred Thompson        1          3         *
Tom Tancredo         0          1         4
Duncan Hunter        *          0         0
Tommy Thompson      NA         NA         5
Sam Brownback       NA         NA         4
Newt Gingrich       NA         NA         1
All of them          2          2         2
None of them         1          3         5
No opinion           8         11        16

f. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008              

                 12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Mitt Romney         35         30        26
Mike Huckabee       24         12         1
Rudy Giuliani       19         32        31
John McCain          4          3         5
Fred Thompson        4          8        11
Ron Paul             2          2         1
Duncan Hunter        *          0         0
Tom Tancredo         0          *         1
Newt Gingrich       NA         NA         3
Tommy Thompson      NA         NA         3
Sam Brownback       NA         NA         2
All of them          *          *         0
None of them         1          4         3
No opinion          11          9        14

g. No trend.

10. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust most to handle (ITEM)?

                              
             12/17/07 - Summary Table
                                                                    Other/None/
                      Giuliani  McCain  Romney  Huckabee  Thompson  No opinion
a. The economy            9        7      35       25          7         17
c. The U.S. campaign 
   against terrorism     26       19      16       17          8         14
d. Immigration issues     9        7      24       22         10         28
e. The situation  
   in Iraq               16       23      18       18          7         18
f. Social issues, such     
   as abortion and 
   gay civil unions       5        5      25       37         10         18
g. Taxes                  8        7      28       25         10         22

Trend where available:
                         
a. The economy  

                12/17/07   11/18/07 
Mitt Romney        35         36 
Mike Huckabee      25         16 
Rudy Giuliani       9         15 
Fred Thompson       7         11 
John McCain         7          5 
Ron Paul            6          5 
Duncan Hunter       1          1 
Tom Tancredo        1          1 
All of them         *          * 
None of them        3          2 
No opinion          7          8 

c. The U.S. campaign against terrorism

                12/17/07   11/18/07 
Rudy Giuliani      26         33 
John McCain        19         15 
Mitt Romney        16         15 
Mike Huckabee      17         10 
Fred Thompson       8         11 
Ron Paul            4          5 
Tom Tancredo        2          4 
Duncan Hunter       1          1 
All of them         1          1 
None of them        1          2 
No opinion          5          4 

d. Immigration issues

                12/17/07   11/18/07 
Mitt Romney        24         27 
Mike Huckabee      22         13 
Tom Tancredo       11         13 
Fred Thompson      10         11 
Rudy Giuliani       9          9 
John McCain         7          9 
Ron Paul            7          6 
Duncan Hunter       1          1 
All of them         1          1 
None of them        2          3 
No opinion          7          8 

e. The situation in Iraq

                12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
John McCain        23         20        21
Rudy Giuliani      16         19        17
Mitt Romney        18         19        15
Mike Huckabee      18         12         3
Fred Thompson       7         11         8
Ron Paul            6          5         1
Tom Tancredo        2          3         1
Duncan Hunter       1          1         1
All of them         1          1         1
None of them        3          3         7
No opinion          6          6        16

f. Social issues, such as abortion and gay civil unions

                12/17/07   11/18/07 
Mike Huckabee      37         28 
Mitt Romney        25         25 
Fred Thompson      10         16 
Rudy Giuliani       5         11 
Ron Paul            6          6 
John McCain         5          4 
Tom Tancredo        1          2 
Duncan Hunter       1          1 
All of them         *          * 
None of them        2          2 
No opinion          8          6

g. No trend.

11. Regardless of who you may support, would you say the more you hear about Mike Huckabee the (more you like him), the more you hear about him the (less you like him), or has your opinion about him not changed lately one way or the other?

           More you   Less you   Opinion has     No
           like him   like him   not changed   opinion
12/17/07      37         15           45          2

12. Does the fact that Mitt Romney is a Mormon make you (more) likely to vote for him, (less) likely to vote for him, or doesn't it make a difference in your vote?

           More likely   Less likely   Wouldn't matter   No opinion
12/17/07        2            20               78              *

Compare to: New Hampshire

           More likely   Less likely   Wouldn't matter   No opinion
12/3/07         3             9               88              *

13. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?

           Have attended   First caucus   No opinion
12/17/07         59             41             *
11/18/07         66             34             *
7/31/07          76             24             0

14. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

           ------ Legal ------   ----- Illegal -----
                  All    Most          Most     All      No
           NET   cases   cases   NET   cases   cases   opinion
12/17/07   23      7      16     74     49      25        3 
11/18/07   23      6      17     75     51      24        1

15. How would you describe the tone of the Republican caucus campaign so far? Would you say it has been mostly positive, about equally positive and negative, or mostly negative in tone?

            Mostly    Equally positive    Mostly      No 
           positive     and negative     negative   opinion 
12/17/07      66             29              3         2     

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