Washington Post-ABC News Poll
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone October 18-21, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,536 registered voters, including 1,330 likely voters. Interviews were conducted on both landline and cellular telephones. The results from the full survey have margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Error margins for subgroups are larger. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
10/21/08 RV 90 58 32 10 6 4 *
10/20/08 RV 90 57 34 10 6 4 *
10/19/08 RV 90 57 33 10 6 3 *
10/11/08 RV 92 59 33 8 4 4 *
9/29/08 RV 89 58 31 11 7 5 *
9/22/08 RV 91 55 36 9 5 4 0
9/7/08 RV 89 51 38 10 6 5 *
8/22/08 RV 84 42 42 16 11 5 *
7/13/08 RV 79 36 42 21 12 9 1
6/15/08 75 34 41 25 12 13 *
5/11/08 83 39 44 17 13 5 0
4/13/08 84 37 47 16 11 5 *
3/2/08 84 42 42 15 11 4 *
2/1/08 81 35 46 19 12 7 *
1/12/08 79 32 47 21 15 6 *
12/9/07 72 21 51 28 19 8 *
11/1/07 67 21 46 33 22 12 0
9/30/07 69 21 48 30 21 10 *
7/21/07 70 22 48 30 20 10 *
6/1/07 66 18 48 34 22 13 *
4/15/07 66 20 45 34 20 14 *
2/25/07 65 20 44 35 25 10 *
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
10/21/08 RV 90 58 32 10 6 4 *
10/20/08 RV 90 57 34 10 6 4 *
10/19/08 RV 90 57 33 10 6 3 *
10/11/08 RV 92 59 33 8 4 4 *
9/29/08 RV 89 58 31 11 7 5 *
9/22/08 RV 91 55 36 9 5 4 0
9/7/08 RV 89 51 38 10 6 5 *
8/22/08 RV 84 42 42 16 11 5 *
7/13/08 RV 79 36 42 21 12 9 1
6/15/08 75 34 41 25 12 13 *
5/11/08 83 39 44 17 13 5 0
4/13/08 84 37 47 16 11 5 *
3/2/08 84 42 42 15 11 4 *
2/1/08 81 35 46 19 12 7 *
1/12/08 79 32 47 21 15 6 *
12/9/07 72 21 51 28 19 8 *
11/1/07 67 21 46 33 22 12 0
9/30/07 69 21 48 30 21 10 *
7/21/07 70 22 48 30 20 10 *
6/1/07 66 18 48 34 22 13 *
4/15/07 66 20 45 34 20 14 *
2/25/07 65 20 44 35 25 10 *
2. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think Already
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No
to vote vote 50/50 that (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/21/08 RV 82 6 5 2 1 4 *
10/20/08 RV 81 6 5 3 1 4 *
10/19/08 RV 83 6 5 3 1 4 *
10/11/08 RV 87 5 4 1 * 2 0
9/29/08 RV 87 6 5 1 1 *
9/22/08 RV 89 6 4 1 * *
9/7/08 RV 85 7 5 1 1 *
8/22/08 RV 84 10 4 2 * *
7/13/08 RV 79 10 7 3 2 0
6/15/08 71 9 8 7 4 *
3/2/08 78 9 7 4 2 *
3. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?
NET LEANED VOTE - LIKELY VOTERS
Other Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/21/08 54 43 1 1 1
10/20/08 53 44 1 1 1
10/19/08 53 44 1 1 2
10/11/08 53 43 1 1 2
9/29/08 50 46 * 2 2
9/22/08 52 43 * 1 3
9/7/08 47 49 1 1 3
8/22/08 49 45 * 2 4
7/13/08 49 46 1 2 2
6/15/08 47 48 1 2 2
NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS
Other Neither Would not No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
10/21/08 53 41 1 1 1 3
10/20/08 52 42 1 1 1 3
10/19/08 52 42 1 1 1 3
10/11/08 54 41 1 2 * 2
9/29/08 49 45 1 2 * 3
9/22/08 52 42 1 1 * 4
9/7/08 47 46 1 1 1 4
8/22/08 49 43 * 3 2 3
7/13/08 50 42 1 3 1 2
6/15/08 49 45 1 3 1 3
5/11/08 51 44 * 2 1 1
4/13/08 49 44 * 3 3 2
3/2/08 53 40 * 2 1 3
2/1/08 47 48 1 1 1 2
1/19/07 47 45 * 3 1 4
3b. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Would you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a GOOD CHANCE you'll change your mind, or would you say it's PRETTY UNLIKELY?
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/21/08 LV 89 10 5 5 1
10/20/08 LV 89 10 4 6 1
10/19/08 LV 88 10 5 6 1
10/11/08 LV 88 11 4 7 1
9/29/08 RV 82 17 8 9 1
9/22/08 RV 83 16 8 8 1
9/7/08 RV 79 20 8 12 1
8/22/08 RV 73 24 11 13 3
7/13/08 RV 72 25 10 15 3
6/15/08 RV 72 26 11 16 2
5/11/08 RV 69 28 15 14 3
9/26/04 RV 82 16 4 12 2
9/8/04 RV 84 14 6 8 2
8/29/04 RV 81 18 7 11 1
8/1/04 RV 80 19 7 12 1
7/25/04 RV 78 20 7 13 2
7/11/04 RV 79 21 7 13 1
6/20/04 RV 73 26 12 14 *
Barack Obama:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/21/08 LV 89 9 4 6 1
10/20/08 LV 90 9 3 6 1
10/19/08 LV 91 9 3 5 1
10/11/08 LV 90 9 3 6 1
9/29/08 RV 83 16 7 9 1
9/22/08 RV 85 14 8 7 1
9/7/08 RV 78 21 9 12 1
8/22/08 RV 74 23 7 15 4
7/13/08 RV 72 23 9 14 5
6/15/08 RV 71 26 7 19 3
5/11/08 RV 71 25 13 13 4
John McCain:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/21/08 LV 89 11 5 5 1
10/20/08 LV 89 11 5 5 1
10/19/08 LV 86 12 6 6 1
10/11/08 LV 86 14 4 9 *
9/29/08 RV 81 18 9 9 1
9/22/08 RV 81 18 9 9 2
9/7/08 RV 80 19 8 11 2
8/22/08 RV 72 25 14 11 2
7/13/08 RV 71 28 12 17 1
6/15/08 RV 72 27 14 12 1
5/11/08 RV 66 32 17 15 2
4. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you voted for president in any year before this 2008 election, or is this the first year you'll be voting for president?
Voted before First time No opinion
10/21/08 LV 87 12 *
10/20/08 LV 88 11 *
10/19/08 LV 89 11 *
10/11/08 LV 90 10 0
9/29/08* RV 92 8 *
9/22/08 RV 92 8 0
10/31/04 RV 90 10 *
4. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you voted for president in any year before this 2008 election, or is this the first year you'll be voting for president?
Voted before First time No opinion
10/21/08 LV 87 12 *
10/20/08 LV 88 11 *
10/19/08 LV 89 11 *
10/11/08 LV 90 10 0
9/29/08* RV 92 8 *
9/22/08 RV 92 8 0
10/31/04 RV 90 10 *
*9/29/08 and previous: "(Was this/will this be) the first time you've voted in a presidential election, or have you voted in previous presidential elections?"
5. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) What [was/is] the SINGLE most important issue in your choice for president: (The economy), (the war in Iraq), (terrorism), (energy policy), (health care), or something else?
Energy Health Something No
Economy Iraq Terrorism policy care else op.
10/21/08 LV 51 9 5 4 10 20 1
10/20/08 LV 52 8 6 5 9 19 1
10/19/08 LV 53 7 6 4 9 19 2
6. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle [ITEM] - (Obama) or (McCain)?
10/21/08 - Summary Table*
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
a. The economy 55 38 1 4 2
b. Taxes 51 43 1 3 2
c. Helping the middle
class (10/20-21) 62 31 1 4 2
d. Health care (10/20-21) 60 33 1 3 3
e. International
affairs (10/20-21) 46 49 1 1 2
*Full sample asked item a and item e on 10/21, half sample asked item b-d and item e on 10/20.
Trend:
a. The economy
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/21/08 LV 55 38 1 4 2
10/20/08 LV 55 38 1 4 2
10/19/08 LV 55 39 1 4 1
10/11/08 LV 54 37 1 6 2
9/29/08 RV 50 43 1 3 2
9/22/08 RV 53 39 1 4 3
9/7/08 RV 47 42 1 4 6
8/22/08 RV 50 39 2 5 4
7/13/08 RV 54 37 2 6 3
6/15/08 RV 52 37 2 5 4
5/11/08 RV 48 38 2 8 4
3/2/08 RV 50 37 2 6 5
b. Taxes
10/21/08 LV 51 43 1 3 2
10/20/08 LV 50 43 1 4 2
10/19/08 LV 52 42 1 4 2
10/11/08 LV 52 42 1 5 1
9/29/08 RV 48 46 * 3 3
9/7/08 RV 45 44 * 4 7
8/22/08 RV 44 45 1 5 5
6/15/08 RV 47 42 1 6 5
c. Helping the middle class
10/21/08 LV 62 31 1 4 2
10/11/08 LV 60 32 1 5 2
d. Health care
10/21/08 LV 60 33 1 3 3
10/11/08 LV 61 32 1 3 3
6/15/08 RV 52 35 1 6 6
5/11/08 RV 55 31 2 7 5
3/2/08 RV 58 28 1 8 5
e. International affairs
10/21/08 LV 46 49 1 1 2
9/29/08 LV 45 51 1 1 2
9/22/08 LV 48 48 0 2 2
9/7/08 LV 39 53 1 3 4
8/22/08 RV 43 51 1 2 3
7/13/08 RV 45 47 2 2 4
6/15/08 RV 41 50 3 3 3
7a. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS, 10/20-21 ONLY) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think [ITEM] - (Obama) or (McCain)?
10/21/08 - Summary Table
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
a. has higher personal and
ethical standards 49 39 8 2 2
b. would be a better commander-
in-chief of the military 38 57 1 1 3
Trend:
a. has higher personal and ethical standards
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/21/08 LV 49 39 8 2 2
5/11/08 RV 41 41 11 3 5
3/2/08 RV 44 31 10 4 11
b. would be a better commander-in-chief of the military
10/21/08 LV 38 57 1 1 3
9/7/08 LV 26 69 1 2 2
8/22/08 RV 29 61 2 3 4
7. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS, 10/20-21 ONLY) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think [ITEM] - (Obama) or (McCain)?
10/21/08 - Summary Table
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
a. has higher personal and
ethical standards 49 39 8 2 2
Trend:
a. has higher personal and ethical standards
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/21/08 LV 49 39 8 2 2
5/11/08 RV 41 41 11 3 5
3/2/08 RV 44 31 10 4 11
8. (ASKED OF LIKELY LEANED OBAMA/MCCAIN SUPPORTERS) Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about [NAME] - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
10/21/08 - Summary Table - Among Likely Leaned Obama/McCain Supporters
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
a. Obama 95 64 31 5 4 1 *
b. McCain 88 37 51 11 10 1 *
Trend:
a. Obama
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
10/21/08 LV 95 64 31 5 4 1 *
10/20/08 LV 95 65 31 5 4 1 *
10/19/08 LV 96 64 32 4 3 1 *
10/11/08 LV 96 66 30 4 3 1 *
9/29/08 RV 95 61 34 4 4 * 1
9/22/08 RV 94 62 32 6 4 1 *
9/7/08 RV 96 64 32 4 3 1 0
8/22/08 RV 95 52 43 5 2 3 *
6/15/08 RV 91 52 39 9 7 2 *
b. McCain
10/21/08 LV 88 37 51 11 10 1 *
10/20/08 LV 88 38 50 12 11 2 *
10/19/08 LV 87 40 47 13 11 2 *
10/11/08 LV 87 31 57 13 10 2 0
9/29/08 RV 90 38 52 10 7 2 *
9/22/08 RV 89 34 55 10 8 2 1
9/7/08 RV 92 46 46 8 6 2 0
8/22/08 RV 86 28 58 13 11 2 1
6/15/08 RV 74 19 55 25 19 6 1
Compare to:
10/26/04 - Summary Table - Among Likely Voters, Leaned Bush/Kerry Supporters
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
a. Bush 91 55 36 9 8 1 *
b. Kerry 92 46 47 7 6 1 1
9. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) If McCain were elected president, do you think he'd (mainly lead the country in a new direction), or (mainly continue in George W. Bush's direction)?
New Same No
direction direction opinion
10/21/08 LV 46 51 3
10/20/08 LV 47 50 3
10/19/08 LV 48 49 4
10/11/08 LV 45 52 3
10/11/08 RV 46 51 3
9/29/08 RV 46 53 2
9/7/08 RV 46 50 4
8/22/08 RV 40 57 4
6/15/08 RV 41 55 5
10. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, do you think Obama does or does not have the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president?
Does Does not No opinion
10/21/08 LV 56 42 2
10/20/08 LV 54 43 2
10/19/08 LV 54 44 2
10/11/08 LV 56 42 2
10/11/08 RV 54 45 2
9/29/08 RV 52 45 2
9/7/08 RV 48 48 4
8/22/08 RV 50 47 3
6/15/08 RV 48 48 4
3/2/08 RV 49 46 5
11. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS, 10/20-21 ONLY) Do you think [NAME]'s views on most issues are too (liberal) for you, too (conservative) for you, or just about right?
a. Obama
Too Too About No
liberal conservative right opinion
10/21/08 LV 40 2 55 4
10/11/08 LV 38 3 57 2
6/15/08 RV 39 5 50 6
3/2/08 RV 33 5 55 7
b. McCain
10/21/08 LV 15 38 42 5
10/11/08 LV 15 43 38 3
6/15/08 RV 18 35 41 6
3/2/08 RV 17 34 40 8
2/27/00 16 19 55 11
2/24/00 20 16 49 15
2/6/00 15 22 46 16
12. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS, 10/20-21 ONLY) Does Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama make you (more) likely to support Obama, (less) likely to support him, or won't it make any difference in your vote?
More likely Less likely No difference No opinion
10/21/08 LV 19 4 77 1
Compare to:
If Powell endorsed one of the candidates running for president, would that make you more inclined or less inclined to support that candidate? IF MORE/LESS inclined: Would Powell's endorsement mean you definitely would vote for/against that candidate?
-- More inclined -- -- Less inclined -- No diff. No
NET Def. Not def. NET Def. Not def. (vol). opinion
11/8/95 39 15 23 16 9 7 40 7
901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?
---Non-Partisans--
Lean Lean No
Democrat Republican Independent Other No op. Dem. Rep. Lean
10/21/08 LV 36 29 31 3 1 15 12
8 10/20/08 LV 36 29 31 3 1 15 12
8 10/19/08 LV 35 28 33 3 1 15 13
9 10/11/08 LV 39 30 27 3 1 12 12 7
908a. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Don't think in No
Liberal Moderate Conservative those terms (vol.) op.
10/21/08 LV 20 43 34 2 2
10/20/08 LV 21 41 35 1 1
10/19/08 LV 21 41 35 2 2
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