Washington Post-ABC News Poll
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone October 19-22, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,539 registered voters, including 1,335 likely voters. Interviews were conducted on both landline and cellular telephones. The results from the full survey have margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Error margins for subgroups are larger. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
10/22/08 RV 89 57 32 11 6 5 *
10/21/08 RV 90 58 32 10 6 4 *
10/20/08 RV 90 57 34 10 6 4 *
10/19/08 RV 90 57 33 10 6 3 *
10/11/08 RV 92 59 33 8 4 4 *
9/29/08 RV 89 58 31 11 7 5 *
9/22/08 RV 91 55 36 9 5 4 0
9/7/08 RV 89 51 38 10 6 5 *
8/22/08 RV 84 42 42 16 11 5 *
7/13/08 RV 79 36 42 21 12 9 1
6/15/08 75 34 41 25 12 13 *
5/11/08 83 39 44 17 13 5 0
4/13/08 84 37 47 16 11 5 *
3/2/08 84 42 42 15 11 4 *
2/1/08 81 35 46 19 12 7 *
1/12/08 79 32 47 21 15 6 *
12/9/07 72 21 51 28 19 8 *
11/1/07 67 21 46 33 22 12 0
9/30/07 69 21 48 30 21 10 *
7/21/07 70 22 48 30 20 10 *
6/1/07 66 18 48 34 22 13 *
4/15/07 66 20 45 34 20 14 *
2/25/07 65 20 44 35 25 10 *
10/20/04 RV 89 55 34 10 7 3 *
10/20/00 LV 86 46 40 15 11 4 *
Call for full trend.
2. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No
to vote vote 50/50 that (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/22/08 RV 81 5 5 2 1 5 *
10/21/08 RV 82 6 5 2 1 4 *
10/20/08 RV 81 6 5 3 1 4 *
10/19/08 RV 83 6 5 3 1 4 *
10/11/08 RV 87 5 4 1 * 2 0
9/29/08 RV 87 6 5 1 1 *
9/22/08 RV 89 6 4 1 * *
9/7/08 RV 85 7 5 1 1 *
8/22/08 RV 84 10 4 2 * *
7/13/08 RV 79 10 7 3 2 0
6/15/08 71 9 8 7 4 *
3/2/08 78 9 7 4 2 *
3.(ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?
NET LEANED VOTE - LIKELY VOTERS
Other Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/22/08 54 43 1 1 2
10/21/08 54 43 1 1 1
10/20/08 53 44 1 1 1
10/19/08 53 44 1 1 2
10/11/08 53 43 1 1 2
9/29/08 50 46 * 2 2
9/22/08 52 43 * 1 3
9/7/08 47 49 1 1 3
8/22/08 49 45 * 2 4
7/13/08 49 46 1 2 2
6/15/08 47 48 1 2 2
NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS
Other Neither Would not No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
10/22/08 54 41 1 2 1 3
10/21/08 53 41 1 1 1 3
10/20/08 52 42 1 1 1 3
10/19/08 52 42 1 1 1 3
10/11/08 54 41 1 2 * 2
9/29/08 49 45 1 2 * 3
9/22/08 52 42 1 1 * 4
9/7/08 47 46 1 1 1 4
8/22/08 49 43 * 3 2 3
7/13/08 50 42 1 3 1 2
6/15/08 49 45 1 3 1 3
5/11/08 51 44 * 2 1 1
4/13/08 49 44 * 3 3 2
3/2/08 53 40 * 2 1 3
2/1/08 47 48 1 1 1 2
1/19/07 47 45 * 3 1 4
3b. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Would you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a GOOD CHANCE you'll change your mind, or would you say it's PRETTY UNLIKELY?
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/22/08 LV 90 9 4 5 1
10/21/08 LV 89 10 5 5 1
10/20/08 LV 89 10 4 6 1
10/19/08 LV 88 10 5 6 1
10/11/08 LV 88 11 4 7 1
9/29/08 RV 82 17 8 9 1
9/22/08 RV 83 16 8 8 1
9/7/08 RV 79 20 8 12 1
8/22/08 RV 73 24 11 13 3
7/13/08 RV 72 25 10 15 3
6/15/08 RV 72 26 11 16 2
5/11/08 RV 69 28 15 14 3
9/26/04 RV 82 16 4 12 2
9/8/04 RV 84 14 6 8 2
8/29/04 RV 81 18 7 11 1
8/1/04 RV 80 19 7 12 1
7/25/04 RV 78 20 7 13 2
7/11/04 RV 79 21 7 13 1
6/20/04 RV 73 26 12 14 *
Barack Obama:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/22/08 LV 90 8 3 5 1
10/21/08 LV 89 9 4 6 1
10/20/08 LV 90 9 3 6 1
10/19/08 LV 91 9 3 5 1
10/11/08 LV 90 9 3 6 1
9/29/08 RV 83 16 7 9 1
9/22/08 RV 85 14 8 7 1
9/7/08 RV 78 21 9 12 1
8/22/08 RV 74 23 7 15 4
7/13/08 RV 72 23 9 14 5
6/15/08 RV 71 26 7 19 3
5/11/08 RV 71 25 13 13 4
John McCain:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/22/08 LV 90 9 4 5 1
10/21/08 LV 89 11 5 5 1
10/20/08 LV 89 11 5 5 1
10/19/08 LV 86 12 6 6 1
10/11/08 LV 86 14 4 9 *
9/29/08 RV 81 18 9 9 1
9/22/08 RV 81 18 9 9 2
9/7/08 RV 80 19 8 11 2
8/22/08 RV 72 25 14 11 2
7/13/08 RV 71 28 12 17 1
6/15/08 RV 72 27 14 12 1
5/11/08 RV 66 32 17 15 2
4. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you voted for president in any year before this 2008 election, or is this the first year you'll be voting for president?
Voted before First time No opinion 10/22/08 LV 87 13 * 10/21/08 LV 87 12 * 10/20/08 LV 88 11 * 10/19/08 LV 89 11 * 10/11/08 LV 90 10 0 9/29/08* RV 92 8 * 9/22/08 RV 92 8 0 10/31/04 RV 90 10 * *9/29/08 and previous: "(Was this/will this be) the first time you've voted in a presidential election, or have you voted in previous presidential elections?"
5. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) What [was/is] the SINGLE most important issue in your choice for president: (The economy), (the war in Iraq), (terrorism), (energy policy), (health care), or something else?
Energy Health Something No
Economy Iraq Terrorism policy care else op.
10/22/08 LV 51 8 5 4 10 20 1
10/21/08 LV 51 9 5 4 10 20 1
10/20/08 LV 52 8 6 5 9 19 1
10/19/08 LV 53 7 6 4 9 19 2
6. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle [ITEM] - (Obama) or (McCain)?
10/22/08 - Summary Table
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
a. The economy 56 38 1 3 2
Trend:
a. The economy
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/22/08 LV 56 38 1 3 2
10/21/08 LV 55 38 1 4 2
10/20/08 LV 55 38 1 4 2
10/19/08 LV 55 39 1 4 1
10/11/08 LV 54 37 1 6 2
9/29/08 RV 50 43 1 3 2
9/22/08 RV 53 39 1 4 3
9/7/08 RV 47 42 1 4 6
8/22/08 RV 50 39 2 5 4
7/13/08 RV 54 37 2 6 3
6/15/08 RV 52 37 2 5 4
5/11/08 RV 48 38 2 8 4
3/2/08 RV 50 37 2 6 5
7. (ASKED OF LIKELY LEANED OBAMA/MCCAIN SUPPORTERS) Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about [NAME] - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
10/22/08 - Summary Table - Among Likely Leaned Obama/McCain Supporters
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
a. Obama 94 67 28 5 5 1 *
b. McCain 88 40 48 12 10 2 1
Trend:
a. Obama
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
10/22/08 LV 94 67 28 5 5 1 *
10/21/08 LV 95 64 31 5 4 1 *
10/20/08 LV 95 65 31 5 4 1 *
10/19/08 LV 96 64 32 4 3 1 *
10/11/08 LV 96 66 30 4 3 1 *
9/29/08 RV 95 61 34 4 4 * 1
9/22/08 RV 94 62 32 6 4 1 *
9/7/08 RV 96 64 32 4 3 1 0
8/22/08 RV 95 52 43 5 2 3 *
6/15/08 RV 91 52 39 9 7 2 *
b. McCain
10/22/08 LV 88 40 48 12 10 2 1
10/21/08 LV 88 37 51 11 10 1 *
10/20/08 LV 88 38 50 12 11 2 *
10/19/08 LV 87 40 47 13 11 2 *
10/11/08 LV 87 31 57 13 10 2 0
9/29/08 RV 90 38 52 10 7 2 *
9/22/08 RV 89 34 55 10 8 2 1
9/7/08 RV 92 46 46 8 6 2 0
8/22/08 RV 86 28 58 13 11 2 1
6/15/08 RV 74 19 55 25 19 6 1
Compare to:
10/26/04 - Summary Table - Among Likely Voters, Leaned Bush/Kerry Supporters
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
a. Bush 91 55 36 9 8 1 *
b. Kerry 92 46 47 7 6 1 1
8. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) If McCain were elected president, do you think he'd (mainly lead the country in a new direction), or (mainly continue in George W. Bush's direction)?
New Same No
direction direction opinion
10/22/08 LV 45 52 3
10/21/08 LV 46 51 3
10/20/08 LV 47 50 3
10/19/08 LV 48 49 4
10/11/08 LV 45 52 3
10/11/08 RV 46 51 3
9/29/08 RV 46 53 2
9/7/08 RV 46 50 4
8/22/08 RV 40 57 4
6/15/08 RV 41 55 5
9. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, do you think Obama does or does not have the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president?
Does Does not No opinion
10/22/08 LV 56 42 2
10/21/08 LV 56 42 2
10/20/08 LV 54 43 2
10/19/08 LV 54 44 2
10/11/08 LV 56 42 2
10/11/08 RV 54 45 2
9/29/08 RV 52 45 2
9/7/08 RV 48 48 4
8/22/08 RV 50 47 3
6/15/08 RV 48 48 4
3/2/08 RV 49 46 5
10. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS, 10/21-22) If elected, [ITEM]. If you honestly assessed yourself, is that something with which you're entirely comfortable, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable?
10/22/08 - Summary Table
------ Comfortable ------ ----- Uncomfortable ----- No
NET Entirely Somewhat NET Somewhat Entirely op.
a. McCain would
take office
at age 72 50 30 20 49 23 26 1
b. Obama would
be the first
African-
American
president 90 76 14 8 3 5 2
Trend:
a. McCain would take office at age 72
------ Comfortable ------ ----- Uncomfortable ----- No
NET Entirely Somewhat NET Somewhat Entirely op.
10/22/08 LV 50 30 20 49 23 26 1
10/21/08 LV 48 29 20 51 22 29 1
10/11/08 RV 50 27 23 50 24 25 *
9/29/08 RV 52 31 20 48 25 23 1
9/7/08 RV 56 32 24 42 23 19 3
8/22/08 RV 55 30 25 45 24 20 1
b. Obama would be the first African-American president
10/22/08 LV 90 76 14 8 3 5 2
10/21/08 LV 90 76 14 7 3 4 2
10/11/08 RV 91 74 16 9 5 4 1
8/22/08 RV 87 70 17 11 6 6 2
11. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the [CANDIDATE] campaign, either by phone or in-person, asking you for your support, or not? How about by a representative of the [NEXT CANDIDATE] campaign?
Yes No No opinion
a. Obama 21 78 1
b. McCain 14 85 1
12. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you personally received any e-mail or text messages from the [CANDIDATE] campaign asking you for your support, or not? How about by a representative of the [NEXT CANDIDATE] campaign?
Yes No No opinion a. Obama 16 83 1 b. McCain 10 89 *
901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?
---Non-Partisans--
Lean Lean No
Democrat Republican Independent Other No op. Dem. Rep. Lean
10/22/08 LV 36 27 33 3 1 15 13
9 10/21/08 LV 36 29 31 3 1 15 12
8 10/20/08 LV 36 29 31 3 1 15 12
8 10/19/08 LV 35 28 33 3 1 15 13
9 10/11/08 LV 39 30 27 3 1 12 12 7
908a. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Don't think in No
Liberal Moderate Conservative those terms (vol.) op.
10/22/08 LV 21 42 34 2 2
10/21/08 LV 20 43 34 2 2
10/20/08 LV 21 41 35 1 1
10/19/08 LV 21 41 35 2 2
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