Washington Post-ABC News Poll
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone October 20-23, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,526 registered voters, including 1,321 likely voters. Interviews were conducted on both landline and cellular telephones. The results from the full survey have margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Error margins for subgroups are larger. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
10/23/08 RV 88 58 30 12 6 6 *
10/22/08 RV 89 57 32 11 6 5 *
10/21/08 RV 90 58 32 10 6 4 *
10/20/08 RV 90 57 34 10 6 4 *
10/19/08 RV 90 57 33 10 6 3 *
10/11/08 RV 92 59 33 8 4 4 *
9/29/08 RV 89 58 31 11 7 5 *
9/22/08 RV 91 55 36 9 5 4 0
9/7/08 RV 89 51 38 10 6 5 *
8/22/08 RV 84 42 42 16 11 5 *
7/13/08 RV 79 36 42 21 12 9 1
6/15/08 75 34 41 25 12 13 *
5/11/08 83 39 44 17 13 5 0
4/13/08 84 37 47 16 11 5 *
3/2/08 84 42 42 15 11 4 *
2/1/08 81 35 46 19 12 7 *
1/12/08 79 32 47 21 15 6 *
12/9/07 72 21 51 28 19 8 *
11/1/07 67 21 46 33 22 12 0
9/30/07 69 21 48 30 21 10 *
7/21/07 70 22 48 30 20 10 *
6/1/07 66 18 48 34 22 13 *
4/15/07 66 20 45 34 20 14 *
2/25/07 65 20 44 35 25 10 *
10/20/04 RV 89 55 34 10 7 3 *
10/20/00 LV 86 46 40 15 11 4 *
Call for full trend.
2. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think Already
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No
to vote vote 50/50 that (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/23/08 RV 80 5 5 2 1 6 *
10/22/08 RV 81 5 5 2 1 5 *
10/21/08 RV 82 6 5 2 1 4 *
10/20/08 RV 81 6 5 3 1 4 *
10/19/08 RV 83 6 5 3 1 4 *
10/11/08 RV 87 5 4 1 * 2 0
9/29/08 RV 87 6 5 1 1 *
9/22/08 RV 89 6 4 1 * *
9/7/08 RV 85 7 5 1 1 *
8/22/08 RV 84 10 4 2 * *
7/13/08 RV 79 10 7 3 2 0
6/15/08 71 9 8 7 4 *
3/2/08 78 9 7 4 2 *
3. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?
NET LEANED VOTE - LIKELY VOTERS
Other Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/23/08 53 44 * 1 2
10/22/08 54 43 1 1 2
10/21/08 54 43 1 1 1
10/20/08 53 44 1 1 1
10/19/08 53 44 1 1 2
10/11/08 53 43 1 1 2
9/29/08 50 46 * 2 2
9/22/08 52 43 * 1 3
9/7/08 47 49 1 1 3
8/22/08 49 45 * 2 4
7/13/08 49 46 1 2 2
6/15/08 47 48 1 2 2
NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS
Other Neither Would not No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
10/23/08 52 42 1 1 1 3
10/22/08 54 41 1 2 1 3
10/21/08 53 41 1 1 1 3
10/20/08 52 42 1 1 1 3
10/19/08 52 42 1 1 1 3
10/11/08 54 41 1 2 * 2
9/29/08 49 45 1 2 * 3
9/22/08 52 42 1 1 * 4
9/7/08 47 46 1 1 1 4
8/22/08 49 43 * 3 2 3
7/13/08 50 42 1 3 1 2
6/15/08 49 45 1 3 1 3
5/11/08 51 44 * 2 1 1
4/13/08 49 44 * 3 3 2
3/2/08 53 40 * 2 1 3
2/1/08 47 48 1 1 1 2
1/19/07 47 45 * 3 1 4
3b. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Would you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a GOOD CHANCE you'll change your mind, or would you say it's PRETTY UNLIKELY?
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/23/08 LV 91 9 4 5 1
10/22/08 LV 90 9 4 5 1
10/21/08 LV 89 10 5 5 1
10/20/08 LV 89 10 4 6 1
10/19/08 LV 88 10 5 6 1
10/11/08 LV 88 11 4 7 1
9/29/08 RV 82 17 8 9 1
9/22/08 RV 83 16 8 8 1
9/7/08 RV 79 20 8 12 1
8/22/08 RV 73 24 11 13 3
7/13/08 RV 72 25 10 15 3
6/15/08 RV 72 26 11 16 2
5/11/08 RV 69 28 15 14 3
9/26/04 RV 82 16 4 12 2
9/8/04 RV 84 14 6 8 2
8/29/04 RV 81 18 7 11 1
8/1/04 RV 80 19 7 12 1
7/25/04 RV 78 20 7 13 2
7/11/04 RV 79 21 7 13 1
6/20/04 RV 73 26 12 14 *
Barack Obama:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/23/08 LV 91 8 4 4 1
10/22/08 LV 90 8 3 5 1
10/21/08 LV 89 9 4 6 1
10/20/08 LV 90 9 3 6 1
10/19/08 LV 91 9 3 5 1
10/11/08 LV 90 9 3 6 1
9/29/08 RV 83 16 7 9 1
9/22/08 RV 85 14 8 7 1
9/7/08 RV 78 21 9 12 1
8/22/08 RV 74 23 7 15 4
7/13/08 RV 72 23 9 14 5
6/15/08 RV 71 26 7 19 3
5/11/08 RV 71 25 13 13 4
John McCain:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/23/08 LV 90 10 4 5 1
10/22/08 LV 90 9 4 5 1
10/21/08 LV 89 11 5 5 1
10/20/08 LV 89 11 5 5 1
10/19/08 LV 86 12 6 6 1
10/11/08 LV 86 14 4 9 *
9/29/08 RV 81 18 9 9 1
9/22/08 RV 81 18 9 9 2
9/7/08 RV 80 19 8 11 2
8/22/08 RV 72 25 14 11 2
7/13/08 RV 71 28 12 17 1
6/15/08 RV 72 27 14 12 1
5/11/08 RV 66 32 17 15 2
4. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you voted for president in any year before this 2008 election, or is this the first year you'll be voting for president?
Voted before First time No opinion 10/23/08 LV 87 13 * 10/22/08 LV 87 13 * 10/21/08 LV 87 12 * 10/20/08 LV 88 11 * 10/19/08 LV 89 11 * 10/11/08 LV 90 10 0 9/29/08* RV 92 8 * 9/22/08 RV 92 8 0 10/31/04 RV 90 10 * *9/29/08 and previous: "(Was this/will this be) the first time you've voted in a presidential election, or have you voted in previous presidential elections?"
5. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) What [was/is] the SINGLE most important issue in your choice for president: (The economy), (the war in Iraq), (terrorism), (energy policy), (health care), or something else?
Energy Health Something No
Economy Iraq Terrorism policy care else op.
10/23/08 LV 51 8 5 4 10 21 1
10/22/08 LV 51 8 5 4 10 20 1
10/21/08 LV 51 9 5 4 10 20 1
10/20/08 LV 52 8 6 5 9 19 1
10/19/08 LV 53 7 6 4 9 19 2
6. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS, 10/22-23 ONLY) Regardless of how you might vote, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of (NAME)? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
10/23/08 - Summary Table
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
a. Barack Obama 63 47 16 34 7 27 3
b. John McCain 55 29 26 42 11 30 3
c. Joe Biden 59 31 28 33 13 20 9
d. Sarah Palin 46 28 18 51 11 40 3
Trend:
a. Barack Obama
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
10/23/08 LV 63 47 16 34 7 27 3
10/11/08 LV 65 47 18 32 10 22 3
9/7/08 LV 61 37 23 35 11 25 4
8/22/08 RV 62 37 25 34 13 21 4
6/15/08 RV 62 34 27 34 11 23 4
4/13/08 RV 57 28 30 39 14 24 4
1/12/08 RV 65 33 31 30 14 16 6
11/1/07 51 21 30 36 16 20 13
2/25/07 53 21 33 30 16 14 16
1/19/07 45 NA NA 29 NA NA 25
12/11/06 44 21 22 23 17 6 33
b. John McCain
10/23/08 LV 55 29 26 42 11 30 3
10/11/08 LV 52 25 28 45 16 29 3
9/7/08 LV 60 33 27 36 15 22 3
8/22/08 RV 59 25 34 37 15 22 4
6/15/08 RV 57 20 38 39 18 20 4
4/13/08 RV 52 16 36 41 19 22 6
1/12/08 RV 61 25 36 31 18 13 8
11/1/07 43 10 34 42 23 19 14
2/25/07 52 13 39 35 22 13 13
1/19/07 49 NA NA 35 NA NA 16
12/11/06 50 17 33 31 20 11 19
5/15/06 55 20 35 31 20 11 14
3/5/06 59 22 38 29 18 11 12
6/5/05 57 NA NA 32 NA NA 11
7/30/01 57 30 12
2/27/00 60 21 19
10/31/99 36 22 41
9/2/99 22 10 68
3/14/99 20 10 69
c. Joe Biden
10/23/08 LV 59 31 28 33 13 20 9
9/29/08 LV 58 26 32 31 12 19 11
9/7/08 LV 53 26 27 29 12 17 18
9/4/08* RV 54 32 23 31 15 16 14
* "the Democratic nominee for vice president"
d. Sarah Palin
10/23/08 LV 46 28 18 51 11 40 3
9/29/08 LV 52 31 20 41 10 31 7
9/22/08 LV 52 33 19 39 11 28 8
9/7/08 LV 59 37 21 29 10 18 13
9/4/08* RV 52 34 18 37 14 23 11
* "the Republican nominee for vice president"
7. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle [ITEM] - (Obama) or (McCain)?
10/23/08 - Summary Table
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
a. The economy 56 39 1 2 2
Questions 7b-7c held for future release.
Trend:
a. The economy
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/23/08 LV 56 39 1 2 2
10/22/08 LV 56 38 1 3 2
10/21/08 LV 55 38 1 4 2
10/20/08 LV 55 38 1 4 2
10/19/08 LV 55 39 1 4 1
10/11/08 LV 54 37 1 6 2
9/29/08 RV 50 43 1 3 2
9/22/08 RV 53 39 1 4 3
9/7/08 RV 47 42 1 4 6
8/22/08 RV 50 39 2 5 4
7/13/08 RV 54 37 2 6 3
6/15/08 RV 52 37 2 5 4
5/11/08 RV 48 38 2 8 4
3/2/08 RV 50 37 2 6 5
8. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS, 10/22-23 ONLY) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think better understands the problems of people like you - (Obama) or (McCain)?
Both Neither No
Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/23/08 LV 55 37 1 5 2
9/7/08 LV 53 40 1 4 2
8/22/08 RV 49 36 3 9 2
6/15/08 RV 53 36 1 7 4
6/15/08 53 35 1 7 4
5/11/08 54 35 2 5 3
3/2/08 56 29 2 7 7
9. (ASKED OF LIKELY LEANED OBAMA/MCCAIN SUPPORTERS) Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about [NAME] - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
10/23/08 - Summary Table - Among Likely Leaned Obama/McCain Supporters
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
a. Obama 95 70 25 5 4 1 0
b. McCain 89 39 50 10 8 2 1
Trend:
a. Obama
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
10/23/08 LV 95 70 25 5 4 1 0
10/22/08 LV 94 67 28 5 5 1 *
10/21/08 LV 95 64 31 5 4 1 *
10/20/08 LV 95 65 31 5 4 1 *
10/19/08 LV 96 64 32 4 3 1 *
10/11/08 LV 96 66 30 4 3 1 *
9/29/08 RV 95 61 34 4 4 * 1
9/22/08 RV 94 62 32 6 4 1 *
9/7/08 RV 96 64 32 4 3 1 0
8/22/08 RV 95 52 43 5 2 3 *
6/15/08 RV 91 52 39 9 7 2 *
b. McCain
10/23/08 LV 89 39 50 10 8 2 1
10/22/08 LV 88 40 48 12 10 2 1
10/21/08 LV 88 37 51 11 10 1 *
10/20/08 LV 88 38 50 12 11 2 *
10/19/08 LV 87 40 47 13 11 2 *
10/11/08 LV 87 31 57 13 10 2 0
9/29/08 RV 90 38 52 10 7 2 *
9/22/08 RV 89 34 55 10 8 2 1
9/7/08 RV 92 46 46 8 6 2 0
8/22/08 RV 86 28 58 13 11 2 1
6/15/08 RV 74 19 55 25 19 6 1
Compare to:
10/26/04 - Summary Table - Among Likely Voters, Leaned Bush/Kerry Supporters
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
a. Bush 91 55 36 9 8 1 *
b. Kerry 92 46 47 7 6 1 1
10. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS, 10/22-23 ONLY) Do you think Palin does or does not have the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president, if that became necessary?
Does Does not No opinion 10/23/08 LV 38 58 3 9/29/08 LV 36 60 4 9/7/08 LV 49 45 6 9/4/08 RV 43 51 6
11. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS, 10/22-23 ONLY) Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Palin, or not?
a. She understands the problems of people like you
Yes No No opinion
10/23/08 LV 50 47 3
9/29/08 LV 60 37 3
901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?
---Non-Partisans-- Lean Lean No
Democrat Republican Independent Other No op. Dem. Rep. Lean
10/23/08 LV 37 29 31 3 * 14 12
8 10/22/08 LV 36 27 33 3 1 15 13
9 10/21/08 LV 36 29 31 3 1 15 12
8 10/20/08 LV 36 29 31 3 1 15 12
8 10/19/08 LV 35 28 33 3 1 15 13
9 10/11/08 LV 39 30 27 3 1 12 12 7
908a. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Don't think in No
Liberal Moderate Conservative those terms (vol.) op.
10/23/08 LV 21 40 35 2 2
10/22/08 LV 21 42 34 2 2
10/21/08 LV 20 43 34 2 2
10/20/08 LV 21 41 35 1 1
10/19/08 LV 21 41 35 2 2
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