Washington Post-ABC News Poll

TThis Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 28-31, 2008, among a random national sample of 2,143 registered voters, including 1,896 likely voters. Interviews were conducted on both landline and cellular telephones. The results from the full survey have margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Error margins for subgroups are larger. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

              ---- Closely -----   ---- Not closely -----     No
              NET   Very   Smwt.   NET   Not too   At all   opinion
10/31/08 RV   89     60     29     11        7        4        *
10/30/08 RV   89     59     29     11        7        4        *
10/29/08 RV   89     60     30     10        6        4        *
10/28/08 RV   90     59     31     10        6        4        *
10/27/08 RV   91     60     31      9        5        4        *
10/26/08 RV   90     60     30      9        5        4        *
10/25/08 RV   89     59     30     11        6        5        *
10/24/08 RV   89     60     28     11        6        5        *
10/23/08 RV   88     58     30     12        6        6        *
10/22/08 RV   89     57     32     11        6        5        *
10/21/08 RV   90     58     32     10        6        4        *
10/20/08 RV   90     57     34     10        6        4        *
10/19/08 RV   90     57     33     10        6        3        *  
10/11/08 RV   92     59     33      8        4        4        *
9/29/08  RV   89     58     31     11        7        5        * 
9/22/08  RV   91     55     36      9        5        4        0
9/7/08   RV   89     51     38     10        6        5        *
8/22/08  RV   84     42     42     16       11        5        *
7/13/08  RV   79     36     42     21       12        9        1
6/15/08       75     34     41     25       12       13        *
5/11/08       83     39     44     17       13        5        0  
4/13/08       84     37     47     16       11        5        *  
3/2/08        84     42     42     15       11        4        * 
2/1/08        81     35     46     19       12        7        *
1/12/08       79     32     47     21       15        6        *  
12/9/07       72     21     51     28       19        8        *
11/1/07       67     21     46     33       22       12        0  
9/30/07       69     21     48     30       21       10        * 
7/21/07       70     22     48     30       20       10        *  
6/1/07        66     18     48     34       22       13        *  
4/15/07       66     20     45     34       20       14        *  
2/25/07       65     20     44     35       25       10        *
10/31/04 RV   90     58     32      9        6        3        *
10/31/00 LV   90     46     44      9        7        2        *

Call for full trend.

2.(ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

                                                                                                                     Don't think  Already 
              Certain  Probably  Chances  Less than   will vote    voted   No    
              to vote    vote     50/50     that       (vol.)     (vol.)   op.
10/31/08 RV     73         5        3        1           1          16      *
10/30/08 RV     74         6        4        1           *          15      *
10/29/08 RV     76         5        4        1           1          13      1
10/28/08 RV     77         6        4        1           1          11      1
10/27/08 RV     76         6        4        1           1          11      1
10/26/08 RV     78         6        4        1           1          10      *
10/25/08 RV     78         5        5        2           1          10      *
10/24/08 RV     79         5        5        2           1           8      *
10/23/08 RV     80         5        5        2           1           6      *
10/22/08 RV     81         5        5        2           1           5      *
10/21/08 RV     82         6        5        2           1           4      *
10/20/08 RV     81         6        5        3           1           4      *
10/19/08 RV     83         6        5        3           1           4      *
10/11/08 RV     87         5        4        1           *           2      0
9/29/08  RV     87         6        5        1           1                  *
9/22/08  RV     89         6        4        1           *                  *
9/7/08   RV     85         7        5        1           1                  *     
8/22/08  RV     84        10        4        2           *                  *
7/13/08  RV     79        10        7        3           2                  0
6/15/08         71         9        8        7           4                  *
3/2/08          78         9        7        4           2                  *

3. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) Confidentially and for statistical purposes only, did you vote for (Barack Obama and Joe Biden) or for (John McCain and Sarah Palin)?

NET LEANED VOTE - LIKELY VOTERS

                            Other    Neither     No
           Obama   McCain   (vol.)    (vol.)   opinion
10/31/08     53      44       1         1         2
10/30/08     53      44       1         1         2
10/29/08     52      44       1         1         2
10/28/08     52      44       1         1         3
10/27/08     52      45       1         1         2
10/26/08     52      45       *         1         2
10/25/08     52      45       *         1         2
10/24/08     53      44       1         1         2
10/23/08     53      44       *         1         2
10/22/08     54      43       1         1         2
10/21/08     54      43       1         1         1
10/20/08     53      44       1         1         1
10/19/08     53      44       1         1         2
10/11/08     53      43       1         1         2
9/29/08      50      46       *         2         2 
9/22/08      52      43       *         1         3
9/7/08       47      49       1         1         3
8/22/08      49      45       *         2         4
7/13/08      49      46       1         2         2
6/15/08      47      48       1         2         2

NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS

                            Other    Neither   Would not       No
           Obama   McCain   (vol.)    (vol.)   vote (vol.)   opinion
10/31/08     53      43       1         1          *            2
10/30/08     53      42       1         2          *            3
10/29/08     51      42       1         2          1            3
10/28/08     51      42       1         2          1            3
10/27/08     51      42       1         2          1            3
10/26/08     51      43       1         1          1            3
10/25/08     51      44       *         1          *            3
10/24/08     52      42       1         2          *            3
10/23/08     52      42       1         1          1            3
10/22/08     54      41       1         2          1            3
10/21/08     53      41       1         1          1            3
10/20/08     52      42       1         1          1            3
10/19/08     52      42       1         1          1            3 
10/11/08     54      41       1         2          *            2
9/29/08      49      45       1         2          *            3
9/22/08      52      42       1         1          *            4
9/7/08       47      46       1         1          1            4
8/22/08      49      43       *         3          2            3
7/13/08      50      42       1         3          1            2
6/15/08      49      45       1         3          1            3
5/11/08      51      44       *         2          1            1
4/13/08      49      44       *         3          3            2
3/2/08       53      40       *         2          1            3 
2/1/08       47      48       1         1          1            2
1/19/07      47      45       *         3          1            4

3b. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Would you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a GOOD CHANCE you'll change your mind, or would you say it's PRETTY UNLIKELY?

              Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No
               vote for    NET   Good   Unlikely   opinion
10/31/08 LV       93        7      3        4         1
10/30/08 LV       93        7      2        4         1
10/29/08 LV       92        7      3        5         1
10/28/08 LV       91        9      3        5         *
10/27/08 LV       91        9      3        5         *
10/26/08 LV       91        9      3        6         *
10/25/08 LV       91        9      3        6         *
10/24/08 LV       91        9      4        5         1
10/23/08 LV       91        9      4        5         1
10/22/08 LV       90        9      4        5         1
10/21/08 LV       89       10      5        5         1
10/20/08 LV       89       10      4        6         1
10/19/08 LV       88       10      5        6         1 
10/11/08 LV       88       11      4        7         1
9/29/08  RV       82       17      8        9         1 
9/22/08  RV       83       16      8        8         1
9/7/08   RV       79       20      8       12         1
8/22/08  RV       73       24     11       13         3
7/13/08  RV       72       25     10       15         3
6/15/08  RV       72       26     11       16         2
5/11/08  RV       69       28     15       14         3
9/26/04  RV       82       16      4       12         2
9/8/04   RV       84       14      6        8         2
8/29/04  RV       81       18      7       11         1
8/1/04   RV       80       19      7       12         1
7/25/04  RV       78       20      7       13         2
7/11/04  RV       79       21      7       13         1
6/20/04  RV       73       26     12       14         *

Barack Obama:

              Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No 
               vote for    NET   Good   Unlikely   opinion
10/31/08 LV       94        6      2        4         *
10/30/08 LV       94        6      1        4         1
10/29/08 LV       94        6      1        5         *
10/28/08 LV       92        7      2        5         *
10/27/08 LV       92        7      2        5         *
10/26/08 LV       92        8      3        5         *
10/25/08 LV       93        7      3        4         *
10/24/08 LV       92        7      3        4         *
10/23/08 LV       91        8      4        4         1
10/22/08 LV       90        8      3        5         1
10/21/08 LV       89        9      4        6         1
10/20/08 LV       90        9      3        6         1
10/19/08 LV       91        9      3        5         1 
10/11/08 LV       90        9      3        6         1
9/29/08  RV       83       16      7        9         1 
9/22/08  RV       85       14      8        7         1
9/7/08   RV       78       21      9       12         1
8/22/08  RV       74       23      7       15         4
7/13/08  RV       72       23      9       14         5
6/15/08  RV       71       26      7       19         3
5/11/08  RV       71       25     13       13         4

John McCain: 

              Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No 
               vote for    NET   Good   Unlikely   opinion
10/31/08 LV       91        8      4        4         1
10/30/08 LV       91        8      3        5         1
10/29/08 LV       90        9      4        5         1
10/28/08 LV       89       10      4        6         1
10/27/08 LV       90       10      4        6         *
10/26/08 LV       89       11      4        7         *
10/25/08 LV       88       11      3        8         1
10/24/08 LV       89       10      4        6         1
10/23/08 LV       90       10      4        5         1
10/22/08 LV       90        9      4        5         1
10/21/08 LV       89       11      5        5         1
10/20/08 LV       89       11      5        5         1
10/19/08 LV       86       12      6        6         1
10/11/08 LV       86       14      4        9         *
9/29/08  RV       81       18      9        9         1
9/22/08  RV       81       18      9        9         2
9/7/08   RV       80       19      8       11         2
8/22/08  RV       72       25     14       11         2
7/13/08  RV       71       28     12       17         1
6/15/08  RV       72       27     14       12         1
5/11/08  RV       66       32     17       15         2

4. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you voted for president in any year
before this 2008 election, or is this the first year you'll be voting for president?

              Voted before   First time   No opinion
10/31/08 LV        87            13            *
10/30/08 LV        87            12            *
10/29/08 LV        88            11            *
10/28/08 LV        88            12            *
10/27/08 LV        89            11            0
10/26/08 LV        88            12            0
10/25/08 LV        88            12            0
10/24/08 LV        88            12            0
10/23/08 LV        87            13            *
10/22/08 LV        87            13            *
10/21/08 LV        87            12            *
10/20/08 LV        88            11            *
10/19/08 LV        89            11            *
10/11/08 LV        90            10            0
9/29/08* RV        92             8            *
9/22/08  RV        92             8            0
10/31/04 RV        90            10            *
*9/29/08 and previous: "(Was this/will this be) the first time you've 
voted in a presidential election, or have you voted in previous presidential elections?"

5. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) What [was/is] the SINGLE most important issue in your choice for president: (The economy), (the war in Iraq), (terrorism), (energy policy), (health care), or something else?

 
                                             Energy   Health   Something   No 
              Economy    Iraq    Terrorism   policy    care       else     op.
10/31/08 LV     51        10         5          3       10         21       1
10/30/08 LV     53         9         4          3       10         21       1
10/29/08 LV     53         9         3          3        9         21       1
10/28/08 LV     54         9         4          3        9         20       1
10/27/08 LV     54         8         4          4       10         19       1
10/26/08 LV     53         8         5          4       10         19       1
10/25/08 LV     52         8         6          5       11         18       1
10/24/08 LV     51         8         5          4       11         19       1
10/23/08 LV     51         8         5          4       10         21       1
10/22/08 LV     51         8         5          4       10         20       1
10/21/08 LV     51         9         5          4       10         20       1
10/20/08 LV     52         8         6          5        9         19       1
10/19/08 LV     53         7         6          4        9         19       2   

6. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle [ITEM] - (Obama) or (McCain)?

10/31/08 - Summary Table*

                                           Both    Neither     No
                         Obama   McCain   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
a. The economy            54       40        1        3         2
b. An unexpected major    50       46        2        1         2
   crisis
c. Taxes                  53       40        1        4         3
*Half sample on 10/29-31 for items b-c.

Trend:

a. The economy

                                Both    Neither     No 
              Obama   McCain   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
10/31/08 LV    54       40        1        3         2
10/30/08 LV    54       41        1        3         2
10/29/08 LV    53       41        1        2         2
10/28/08 LV    52       42        1        3         2
10/27/08 LV    52       43        1        3         2
10/26/08 LV    52       42        1        3         3
10/25/08 LV    53       42        *        3         2
10/24/08 LV    55       40        1        2         2
10/23/08 LV    56       39        1        2         2
10/22/08 LV    56       38        1        3         2
10/21/08 LV    55       38        1        4         2
10/20/08 LV    55       38        1        4         2
10/19/08 LV    55       39        1        4         1
10/11/08 LV    54       37        1        6         2
9/29/08  RV    50       43        1        3         2
9/22/08  RV    53       39        1        4         3
9/7/08   RV    47       42        1        4         6
8/22/08  RV    50       39        2        5         4
7/13/08  RV    54       37        2        6         3
6/15/08  RV    52       37        2        5         4 
5/11/08  RV    48       38        2        8         4
3/2/08   RV    50       37        2        6         5

Compare to:
                                Both    Neither     No
              Kerry    Bush    (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
10/30/04 LV    48       45        1        3         3

                                Both    Neither     No
              Gore     Bush    (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
10/25/00 LV    48       45        2        3         3

                                Both    Neither     No
             Clinton   Dole    (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
9/4/96   RV    48       42        2        6         3
                                       All      None      No
             Clinton   Bush   Perot   (vol.)   (vol.)   opinion
10/4/92  LV    43       26     20        1        5        5

                                Both    Neither     No
             Dukakis   Bush    (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
11/1/88  LV    40       51      NA        NA         9           



b. An unexpected major crisis

10/31/08 LV    50       46        2        1         2
10/30/08 LV    49       46        1        1         2
10/29/08 LV    48       47        2        1         2
10/28/08 LV    47       48        1        2         3
10/27/08 LV    46       48        2        2         3
10/19/08 LV    49       45        1        2         2
10/11/08 LV    52       43        1        3         1
9/29/08  RV    44       50        1        2         3
9/22/08  RV    46       47        2        2         3
9/7/08   RV    37       54        2        3         3
8/22/08  RV    41       52        2        2         3
7/13/08  RV    42       51        3        2         3

Compare to:
                                Both    Neither     No       
              Kerry    Bush    (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
6/20/04        41       53        1        2         2
*"Please tell me whether the following statement applies more to 
(Bush) or more to (Kerry): He can be trusted in a crisis." c. Taxes 10/31/08 LV 53 40 1 4 3 10/30/08 LV 52 41 * 4 3 10/29/08 LV 51 41 1 4 3 10/28/08 LV 52 41 1 4 2 10/27/08 LV 51 41 1 4 3 10/21/08 LV 51 43 1 3 2 10/20/08 LV 50 43 1 4 2 10/19/08 LV 52 42 1 4 2 10/11/08 LV 52 42 1 5 1 9/29/08 RV 48 46 * 3 3 9/7/08 RV 45 44 * 4 7 8/22/08 RV 44 45 1 5 5 6/15/08 RV 47 42 1 6 5 Compare to: Both Neither No Kerry Bush (vol.) (vol.) opinion 10/17/04 LV 42 50 1 4 4 Both Neither No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opinion 10/26/00 LV 37 50 2 9 4 Both Neither No Clinton Dole (vol.) (vol.) opinion 9/4/96 RV 35 48 3 10 4 All None No Clinton Bush Perot (vol.) (vol.) opinion 10/4/92 LV 41 30 15 1 6 7 Both Neither No Dukakis Bush (vol.) (vol.) opinion 9/19/88 LV 30 57 2 5 7

7. (ASKED OF LIKELY LEANED OBAMA/MCCAIN SUPPORTERS) Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about [NAME] - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

10/31/08 - Summary Table - Among Likely Leaned Obama/McCain Supporters

            --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
            NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
a. Obama    96     68      29      4        2          1          0
b. McCain   88     41      46     12        9          3          1

Trend:

a. Obama

              --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
              NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
10/31/08 LV   96     68      29      4        2          1          0
10/30/08 LV   96     68      28      4        3          1          *
10/29/08 LV   96     68      28      3        2          1          1
10/28/08 LV   96     65      31      3        2          1          1
10/27/08 LV   96     65      31      3        3          1          1
10/26/08 LV   96     66      30      3        2          1          1
10/25/08 LV   97     68      29      3        3          1          *
10/24/08 LV   97     71      26      3        3          1          0
10/23/08 LV   95     70      25      5        4          1          0
10/22/08 LV   94     67      28      5        5          1          *
10/21/08 LV   95     64      31      5        4          1          *
10/20/08 LV   95     65      31      5        4          1          *
10/19/08 LV   96     64      32      4        3          1          *
10/11/08 LV   96     66      30      4        3          1          *
9/29/08  RV   95     61      34      4        4          *          1
9/22/08  RV   94     62      32      6        4          1          *
9/7/08   RV   96     64      32      4        3          1          0
8/22/08  RV   95     52      43      5        2          3          *
6/15/08  RV   91     52      39      9        7          2          *

b. McCain

10/31/08 LV   88     41      46     12        9          3          1
10/30/08 LV   87     39      47     13        9          4          1
10/29/08 LV   86     39      47     13       10          3          1
10/28/08 LV   85     37      48     15       12          3          1
10/27/08 LV   83     35      49     16       13          3          * 
10/26/08 LV   87     36      51     13       11          2          *
10/25/08 LV   86     38      48     14       11          3          *
10/24/08 LV   88     39      49     11        9          2          1
10/23/08 LV   89     39      50     10        8          2          1
10/22/08 LV   88     40      48     12       10          2          1
10/21/08 LV   88     37      51     11       10          1          *
10/20/08 LV   88     38      50     12       11          2          *
10/19/08 LV   87     40      47     13       11          2          *
10/11/08 LV   87     31      57     13       10          2          0
9/29/08  RV   90     38      52     10        7          2          *
9/22/08  RV   89     34      55     10        8          2          1
9/7/08   RV   92     46      46      8        6          2          0
8/22/08  RV   86     28      58     13       11          2          1
6/15/08  RV   74     19      55     25       19          6          1

Compare to:

10/26/04 - Summary Table - Among Likely Voters, Leaned Bush/Kerry Supporters

              --- Enthusiastic --    ---- Not Enthusiastic ----     No
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
a. Bush       91     55      36       9       8          1          *
b. Kerry      92     46      47       7       6          1          1

Questions 8-9 held for future release.

10. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS; 10/28-29 ONLY) If McCain were elected president, do you think he'd (mainly lead the country in a new direction), or (mainly continue in George W. Bush's direction)?

a. Obama

                Too         Too        About     No
              liberal   conservative   right   opinion
10/31/08 LV     39            3         56        2
10/21/08 LV     40            2         55        4
10/20/08 LV     39            2         55        4
10/11/08 LV     38            3         57        2
6/15/08  RV     39            5         50        6
3/2/08   RV     33            5         55        7

b. McCain

10/31/08 LV     13           41         42        4
10/21/08 LV     15           38         42        5
10/20/08 LV     12           40         42        6
10/11/08 LV     15           43         38        3
6/15/08  RV     18           35         41        6
3/2/08   RV     17           34         40        8
2/27/00         16           19         55       11
2/24/00         20           16         49       15
2/6/00          15           22         46       16

11. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Do you think of [NAME] as a very safe choice for president, somewhat safe, somewhat risky, or very risky?

                         ------- Safe ------   ------ Risky ------     No
            NET   Very   Smewht   NET   Smewht   Very   opinion
a. Obama    55     32      23     44      16      28       1
b. McCain   52     25      27     47      23      25       1

Trend:

a. Obama
              ------- Safe ------   ------ Risky ------     No
              NET   Very   Smewht   NET   Smewht   Very   opinion
10/31/08 LV   55     32      23     44      16      28       1
10/30/08 LV   54     32      23     45      17      28       1
10/29/08 LV   54     31      23     45      16      29       1
10/28/08 LV   54     31      23     45      16      29       1
10/11/08 LV   56     31      25     43      21      23       *
9/29/08  RV   55     27      28     44      23      21       1
6/15/08  RV   50     18      33     48      29      19       2
b. McCain

10/31/08 LV   52     25      27     47      23      25       1
10/30/08 LV   51     25      27     48      24      24       1
10/29/08 LV   52     26      26     47      23      24       1
10/28/08 LV   53     27      26     46      23      23       1
10/11/08 LV   49     20      30     50      24      27       *
9/29/08  RV   51     23      28     48      28      20       *
6/15/08  RV   57     16      40     41      25      16       2

Compare to:

              ------- Safe ------   ------ Risky ------     No
              NET   Very   Smewht   NET   Smewht   Very   opinion
Gore:
7/23/00       57     18      39     40      24      15       3
2/27/00       58     24      33     40      21      20       2
9/2/99        53     17      36     44      26      19       3

Bush:
7/23/00       59     20      39     38      24      13       3
2/27/00       61     22      39     37      17      20       2
9/2/99        66     22      44     31      23       8       3


901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent 
or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)? ---Non-Partisans-- Lean Lean No Democrat Republican Independent Other No op. Dem. Rep. Lean 10/31/08 LV 38 29 29 3 1 12 13 8 10/30/08 LV 37 28 31 3 1 13 13 8 10/29/08 LV 36 29 31 3 1 13 11 10 10/28/08 LV 37 31 29 2 1 14 10 8 10/27/08 LV 36 33 28 3 1 13 10 8 10/26/08 LV 37 32 27 3 1 13 10 7 10/25/08 LV 37 30 29 3 * 13 13 6 10/24/08 LV 37 29 30 3 * 13 13 7 10/23/08 LV 37 29 31 3 * 14 12 8 10/22/08 LV 36 27 33 3 1 15 13 9 10/21/08 LV 36 29 31 3 1 15 12 8 10/20/08 LV 36 29 31 3 1 15 12 8 10/19/08 LV 35 28 33 3 1 15 13 9 10/11/08 LV 39 30 27 3 1 12 12 7 908a. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative? Don't think in No Liberal Moderate Conservative those terms (vol.) op. 10/31/08 LV 22 44 32 1 1 10/30/08 LV 22 45 31 1 1 10/29/08 LV 22 42 33 2 1 10/28/08 LV 22 41 34 2 1 10/27/08 LV 21 40 35 2 1 10/26/08 LV 22 38 37 2 1 10/25/08 LV 23 37 36 2 1 10/24/08 LV 22 38 35 2 2 10/23/08 LV 21 40 35 2 2 10/22/08 LV 21 42 34 2 2 10/21/08 LV 20 43 34 2 2 10/20/08 LV 21 41 35 1 1 10/19/08 LV 21 41 35 2 2

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