Electoral College Analysis: Missouri

Missouri's Electoral Votes: 11

Washington Post Analysis

Polls have put the Show Me State in Bush's column, and Kerry stopped airing ads here. But Democrats have not completely surrendered. Third-party groups have continued running anti-Bush ads, and labor activists are backing a major get-out-the-vote effort that conceivably could produce a Kerry upset. State Auditor Claire McCaskill defeated Gov. Bob Holden in the Democratic gubernatorial primary and now is in a tight race against Secretary of State Matt Blunt (R). Sen. Christopher S. Bond (R), running against state Treasurer Nancy Farmer (D), seems headed toward a fourth term. In House races, Russ Carnahan (D), son of two well-known Missouri politicians, is poised to replace retiring Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (D). Former Kansas City mayor Emanuel Cleaver II (D) is favored to succeed retiring Rep. Karen McCarthy (D). Recent polls, however, show Republican Jeanne Patterson within shouting distance.

Bush, Kerry in Reach of Electoral Win
By David S. Broder, Dan Balz and Charles Babington
(The Washington Post, Oct. 31, 2004)

Recent Polls

Source: MSNBC-Knight-Ridder (by Mason-Dixon)
Respondents: 625 likely voters
Time: Oct. 26 - 29
Margin of Error: +/- 4%

Bush 49%
Kerry 44%
Other/Undecided 7%

Is Nader on the ballot: No

Past Presidential Vote Breakdowns

Bush (R): 50%
Gore (D): 47%

Clinton (D): 48%
Dole (R): 41%

Clinton (D): 44%
Bush (R): 34%
Perot (I): 22%

Bush (R): 52%
Dukakis (D): 48%

Current Elected Officials

name (party), year last elected, percent won

Bob Holden (D), 2000, 49%

James M. Talent (R), Special Election 2002
Christopher S. Bond (R), 1998, 53%

5 Republicans
4 Democrats

More on Missouri

Show Me in 'Merica; Rural Missourians Are Supporting the Troops but Fretful About Iraq (The Washington Post, Aug. 25, 2004)

All Missouri Races

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