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Electoral College Analysis: Oregon

Oregon's Electoral Votes: 7

Washington Post Analysis

In 2000, when Ralph Nader took 77,000 votes (5 percent), Al Gore had only a 7,000-vote margin over Bush. But Nader's appeal has faded and Kerry appears headed for an easier victory. Late polls showed him up by 6 percentage points, and some say the campus vote could push him higher if environmentalists and those opposing an anti-gay marriage initiative participate heavily in this entirely vote-by-mail state. Sen. Ron Wyden (D) will win easily. In a closely watched House race, Rep. David Wu (D) was embarrassed by an Oct. 12 newspaper article saying a former girlfriend in 1976 had accused him of trying to rape her. Wu admitted to "inexcusable behavior." Observers say he is likely to survive the challenge from Goli Ameri (R).

Overview
Bush, Kerry in Reach of Electoral Win
By David S. Broder, Dan Balz and Charles Babington
(The Washington Post, Oct. 31, 2004)

Recent Polls

Source: MSNBC-Knight-Ridder (by Mason-Dixon)
Respondents: 625 likely voters
Time: Oct. 26 - 29
Margin of Error: +/- 4

Kerry 50%
Bush 44%
Other/Undecided 6%

Source: American Research Group
Respondents: 600 likely voters
Time: Oct. 25-27
Margin of Error: +/- 4

Kerry 50%
Bush 46%
Undecided 4%

Is Nader on the ballot: No

Past Presidential Vote Breakdowns

2000
Gore (D): 47% *state went to Gore
Bush (R): 47%

1996
Clinton (D): 47%
Dole (R): 39%

1992
Clinton (D): 42%
Bush (R): 32%
Perot (I): 24%

1988
Dukakis (D): 51%
Bush (R): 47%

Current Elected Officials

name (party), year last elected, percent won

Governor:
Ted Kulongoski (D), 2002, 49%

Senators:
Gordon H. Smith (R), 2002, 56%
Ron Wyden (D), 1998, 61%

House:
4 Democrats
1 Republican

More on Oregon

Debates Change Few Oregon Minds (Portland Tribune, Oct. 19, 2004)

More Data From the Portland Tribune Poll (portlandtribune.com)

All Politics Is as Local as Ever, And So Are Issues (The Washington Post, Aug. 30, 2004)

All Oregon Races

Discuss the Race to Win Oregon

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