June 2008: Poll Highlights | Colorado | Michigan | Minnesota | Wisconsin
Michigan Survey -- June 2008
From June 17 to 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,411 likely voters in Michigan; the survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent. The survey was conducted in partnership with washingtonpost.com and The Wall Street Journal.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MICHIGAN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Obama 48% 7% 86% 46% 45% 52% 42% 89% 57%
McCain 42 89 9 38 46 38 48 6 32
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 8 3 5 14 7 9 9 5 9
IMP ISSUE Q4...... Wayne Oak/ RestOf
War Econ Terr County Macomb SthW State
Obama 70% 50% 9% 59% 43% 39% 51%
McCain 21 41 84 33 44 49 41
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 - 1 1 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - -
DK/NA 7 8 6 7 12 11 6
WHITES.................................
AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn
18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath
Obama 57% 48% 45% 42% 43% 40% 44% 31% 38%
McCain 36 45 42 47 50 51 45 60 54
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 6 6 12 10 6 7 10 8 8
PresVt2004.. CongVt2006.. BushJobAppQ12
Bush Kerry Rep Dem App Dis
Obama 13% 83% 12% 77% 9% 67%
McCain 79 12 83 18 85 24
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - -
DK/NA 7 4 5 4 6 8
1a. (If candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
CAND CHOICE Q1
MI Tot Obama McCain
Made up 74% 74% 73%
Might change 23 23 24
DK/NA 3 3 3
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Favorable 54% 26% 79% 54% 51% 56% 49% 88% 59%
Unfavorable 27 58 8 22 32 23 31 1 20
Hvn't hrd enough 16 13 12 22 14 18 17 10 20
REFUSED 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Favorable 49% 83% 23% 52% 57% 43% 56% 12% 43%
Unfavorable 29 7 51 24 29 30 26 43 36
Hvn't hrd enough 18 7 23 21 12 24 15 39 19
REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 3
4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Terrorism 8% 19% 3% 6% 10% 6% 9% 4% 7%
The war in Iraq 16 9 24 15 15 17 15 25 20
The economy 56 51 57 56 54 57 55 53 53
Illegal immigration 3 5 1 4 4 3 4 - 3
Health care 10 6 13 12 10 11 10 13 11
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 7 1 4 5 3 4 2 4
DK/NA 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 4 2
5. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72. Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
More likely 1% 2% - 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1%
Less likely 18 5 30 18 16 19 16 36 19
Doesn't make diff 79 92 67 79 82 77 82 58 79
DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 3 1
6. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
More likely 5% 1% 9% 6% 5% 6% 4% 18% 4%
Less likely 4 6 2 5 4 3 4 1 2
Doesn't make diff 90 92 89 88 89 90 91 78 93
DK/NA 1 1 - 1 2 1 1 3 1
7. In deciding your vote for president how important is the vice-presidential candidate - Very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Very important 43% 38% 46% 47% 36% 49% 41% 51% 44%
Smwht important 40 42 39 38 41 40 43 31 42
Not too important 11 15 9 11 15 8 12 8 8
Not imprtnt at all 4 4 5 4 7 2 4 6 6
DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 1 - 5 -
8. Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his Vice- Presidential running mate or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Yes 34% 16% 56% 25% 29% 39% 30% 53% 37%
No 47 63 29 54 52 43 51 28 45
DK/NA 19 21 15 20 19 18 19 19 18
9. If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
More likely 16% 4% 32% 11% 11% 21% 15% 18% 18%
Less likely 24 42 8 28 28 21 28 9 21
Doesn't make diff 57 52 58 57 58 56 55 71 60
DK/NA 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 1
10. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think she would enthusiastically promote Barack Obama's agenda at the expense of her own ideas or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Yes 41% 33% 53% 39% 43% 40% 43% 32% 42%
No 43 52 31 47 43 43 42 50 42
DK/NA 16 15 16 14 14 18 16 18 16
11. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think Bill Clinton would be a problem to the Obama administration or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Yes 40% 59% 25% 41% 46% 35% 43% 23% 38%
No 54 36 70 55 48 59 51 68 57
DK/NA 6 5 5 4 6 6 6 9 6
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Approve 26% 64% 5% 19% 31% 22% 29% 9% 21%
Disapprove 67 28 92 74 64 70 65 87 75
DK/NA 6 8 2 7 5 7 6 4 4
13. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Very satisfied 2% 4% 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Smwht satisfied 14 33 3 10 17 12 17 - 11
Smwht dissatisfied 27 41 17 28 27 27 30 13 24
Very dissatisfied 56 21 79 60 52 59 51 82 62
DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 - 3 1
14. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Right thing 32% 71% 9% 25% 39% 26% 37% 1% 29%
Wrong thing 60 21 87 65 56 64 55 96 64
DK/NA 8 8 4 9 5 10 8 3 6
15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq - (READ OPTIONS, ORDER ROTATED)
A. Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops with a fixed date
to have them all out within 18 months. OR
B. Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable and then begin
to withdraw them without a fixed date for full withdrawal?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
A. Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos 41% 13% 62% 40% 34% 46% 37% 65% 46%
B. Stay until stable/
no fixed dates 52 82 31 52 61 44 55 23 46
DK/NA 8 5 8 8 5 10 7 11 8
16. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Getting ahead 10% 17% 6% 8% 11% 9% 10% 11% 7%
Falling behind 27 13 31 32 25 29 26 31 29
Holding steady 62 70 62 59 64 60 63 58 64
DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 1
17. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now - (READ OPTIONS, ORDER ROTATED)
a. Declining retirement fund values
b. Declining real estate values
c. Rising health care costs
d. Rising gasoline prices
e. Rising food prices
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
A. Retirement funds 9% 9% 8% 10% 8% 10% 9% 7% 11%
B. Real estate val 12 15 13 10 14 10 12 12 13
C. Health care cost 17 12 19 20 16 17 17 16 14
D. Gasoline prices 44 48 41 42 45 44 45 38 46
E. Food prices 13 9 14 14 12 13 12 18 12
DK/NA 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 9 4
Party ID: Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat an Independent, or what?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................
Wht Wht
MI Tot Prot Cath Prot Cath Wht Men Wom
Republican 26% 29% 30% 34% 31% 30% 30% 23%
Democrat 34% 34% 32% 26% 31% 29% 26% 41%
Independent 31% 28% 32% 30% 33% 33% 35% 28%
Other 5% 6% 3% 6% 3% 5% 7% 4%
DK/NA 4% 4% 2% 4% 2% 3% 2% 5%
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