[Battleground Soundings in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin: A Quinnipiac University / washingtonpost.com / Wall Street Journal Poll

June 2008: Poll Highlights | Colorado | Michigan | Minnesota | Wisconsin

Michigan Survey -- June 2008

From June 17 to 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,411 likely voters in Michigan; the survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent. The survey was conducted in partnership with washingtonpost.com and The Wall Street Journal.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MICHIGAN             Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

Obama                48%     7%    86%    46%    45%    52%    42%    89%    57%
McCain               42     89      9     38     46     38     48      6     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2      2      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      3      5     14      7      9      9      5      9

                     IMP ISSUE Q4......   Wayne  Oak/          RestOf
                     War    Econ   Terr   County Macomb SthW   State

Obama                70%    50%     9%    59%    43%    39%    51%
McCain               21     41     84     33     44     49     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2      -      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      8      6      7     12     11      6

                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath

Obama                57%    48%    45%    42%    43%    40%    44%    31%    38%
McCain               36     45     42     47     50     51     45     60     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      2      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      6     12     10      6      7     10      8      8

                     PresVt2004..  CongVt2006..  BushJobAppQ12
                     Bush   Kerry  Rep    Dem    App    Dis

Obama                13%    83%    12%    77%     9%    67%
McCain               79     12     83     18     85     24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      4      5      4      6      8


1a. (If candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?


                    CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
MI                   Tot    Obama  McCain

Made up              74%    74%    73%
Might change         23     23     24
DK/NA                 3      3      3

2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

Favorable            54%    26%    79%    54%    51%    56%    49%    88%    59%
Unfavorable          27     58      8     22     32     23     31      1     20
Hvn't hrd enough     16     13     12     22     14     18     17     10     20
REFUSED               2      3      2      2      2      2      2      1      1

3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

Favorable            49%    83%    23%    52%    57%    43%    56%    12%    43%
Unfavorable          29      7     51     24     29     30     26     43     36
Hvn't hrd enough     18      7     23     21     12     24     15     39     19
REFUSED               3      2      3      3      3      3      3      5      3


4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

Terrorism             8%    19%     3%     6%    10%     6%     9%     4%     7%
The war in Iraq      16      9     24     15     15     17     15     25     20
The economy          56     51     57     56     54     57     55     53     53
Illegal immigration   3      5      1      4      4      3      4      -      3
Health care          10      6     13     12     10     11     10     13     11
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4      7      1      4      5      3      4      2      4
DK/NA                 3      3      1      3      3      3      3      4      2

5. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72. Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

More likely           1%     2%     -      2%     1%     2%     1%     3%     1%
Less likely          18      5     30     18     16     19     16     36     19
Doesn't make diff    79     92     67     79     82     77     82     58     79
DK/NA                 1      1      2      1      1      2      1      3      1


6. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

More likely           5%     1%     9%     6%     5%     6%     4%    18%     4%
Less likely           4      6      2      5      4      3      4      1      2
Doesn't make diff    90     92     89     88     89     90     91     78     93
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      2      1      1      3      1


7. In deciding your vote for president how important is the vice-presidential candidate - Very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

Very important       43%    38%    46%    47%    36%    49%    41%    51%    44%
Smwht important      40     42     39     38     41     40     43     31     42
Not too important    11     15      9     11     15      8     12      8      8
Not imprtnt at all    4      4      5      4      7      2      4      6      6
DK/NA                 1      -      1      -      1      1      -      5      -


8. Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his Vice- Presidential running mate or not?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

Yes                  34%    16%    56%    25%    29%    39%    30%    53%    37%
No                   47     63     29     54     52     43     51     28     45
DK/NA                19     21     15     20     19     18     19     19     18


9. If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

More likely          16%     4%    32%    11%    11%    21%    15%    18%    18%
Less likely          24     42      8     28     28     21     28      9     21
Doesn't make diff    57     52     58     57     58     56     55     71     60
DK/NA                 2      2      2      3      2      3      2      3      1


10. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think she would enthusiastically promote Barack Obama's agenda at the expense of her own ideas or not?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

Yes                  41%    33%    53%    39%    43%    40%    43%    32%    42%
No                   43     52     31     47     43     43     42     50     42
DK/NA                16     15     16     14     14     18     16     18     16


11. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think Bill Clinton would be a problem to the Obama administration or not?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

Yes                  40%    59%    25%    41%    46%    35%    43%    23%    38%
No                   54     36     70     55     48     59     51     68     57
DK/NA                 6      5      5      4      6      6      6      9      6

                    

12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

Approve              26%    64%     5%    19%    31%    22%    29%     9%    21%
Disapprove           67     28     92     74     64     70     65     87     75
DK/NA                 6      8      2      7      5      7      6      4      4


13. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

Very satisfied        2%     4%     1%     1%     3%     1%     1%     2%     1%
Smwht satisfied      14     33      3     10     17     12     17      -     11
Smwht dissatisfied   27     41     17     28     27     27     30     13     24
Very dissatisfied    56     21     79     60     52     59     51     82     62
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      -      3      1


14. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

Right thing          32%    71%     9%    25%    39%    26%    37%     1%    29%
Wrong thing          60     21     87     65     56     64     55     96     64
DK/NA                 8      8      4      9      5     10      8      3      6

15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq - (READ OPTIONS, ORDER ROTATED)

  A. Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops with a fixed date
     to have them all out within 18 months. OR 
  B. Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable and then begin
     to withdraw them without a fixed date for full withdrawal?
	 
	                 LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

A. Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos    41%    13%    62%    40%    34%    46%    37%    65%    46%
B. Stay until stable/
no fixed dates       52     82     31     52     61     44     55     23     46
DK/NA                 8      5      8      8      5     10      7     11      8


16. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

Getting ahead        10%    17%     6%     8%    11%     9%    10%    11%     7%
Falling behind       27     13     31     32     25     29     26     31     29
Holding steady       62     70     62     59     64     60     63     58     64
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      -      2      1      -      1

 

17. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now - (READ OPTIONS, ORDER ROTATED)

a. Declining retirement fund values
b. Declining real estate values
c. Rising health care costs
d. Rising gasoline prices
e. Rising food prices

                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds

A. Retirement funds   9%     9%     8%    10%     8%    10%     9%     7%    11%
B. Real estate val   12     15     13     10     14     10     12     12     13
C. Health care cost  17     12     19     20     16     17     17     16     14
D. Gasoline prices   44     48     41     42     45     44     45     38     46
E. Food prices       13      9     14     14     12     13     12     18     12
DK/NA                 6      6      5      5      5      6      5      9      4


Party ID: Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat an Independent, or what?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                                       Wht   Wht                                  
MI                   Tot  Prot  Cath   Prot  Cath   Wht   Men   Wom   

Republican           26%   29%   30%   34%   31%    30%   30%   23%   
Democrat             34%   34%   32%   26%   31%    29%   26%   41%
Independent          31%   28%   32%   30%   33%    33%   35%   28%   
Other                5%    6%    3%    6%    3%     5%    7%    4%    
DK/NA                4%    4%    2%    4%    2%     3%    2%    5%    

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