Sept. 2008: Poll Highlights | Colorado | Michigan | Minnesota | Wisconsin
Michigan Survey -- September 2008
From September 14 to 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,364 likely voters in Michigan; the survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. The survey was conducted in partnership with washingtonpost.com and The Wall Street Journal.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
Union
MICHIGAN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Obama 48% 7% 89% 49% 44% 52% 41% 93% 60%
McCain 44 88 8 42 49 40 51 5 34
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 7 4 3 8 6 7 7 2 6
IMP ISSUE Q12.............
Energ Wayne Oak/ RestOf
War Econ Terr Polcy County Macomb SthW State
Obama 59% 55% 4% 36% 63% 42% 43% 46%
McCain 35 35 94 58 33 52 50 43
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - - - 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 5 8 2 5 3 5 5 10
WHITE..................................
AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn
18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath
Obama 51% 47% 49% 41% 42% 37% 45% 27% 39%
McCain 48 45 41 50 52 55 47 69 52
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 1 6 9 8 5 7 8 5 8
PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ25
Bush Kerry App Dis
Obama 11% 85% 5% 66%
McCain 84 9 92 26
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - -
DK/NA 4 5 3 7
Sep 23 Jul 24 Jun 26
TREND: 2008 2008 2008
Obama 48 46 48
McCain 44 42 42
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 7 9 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS.......
CAND CHOICEQ1
MI Tot Obama McCain
Made up 80% 82% 78%
Might change 19 17 20
DK/NA 1 1 1
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Favorable 54% 21% 86% 55% 52% 55% 48% 91% 60%
Unfavorable 31 65 6 27 37 27 36 4 27
Hvn't hrd enough 12 11 7 15 10 14 13 3 11
REFUSED 3 3 1 4 2 4 4 2 3
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Favorable 51% 89% 17% 53% 55% 47% 57% 14% 45%
Unfavorable 37 6 70 35 34 40 31 72 44
Hvn't hrd enough 9 4 10 9 9 9 8 10 8
REFUSED 3 2 3 3 2 4 3 4 3
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Favorable 35% 11% 62% 34% 33% 36% 31% 62% 42%
Unfavorable 23 46 4 21 32 16 26 - 17
Hvn't hrd enough 40 42 33 42 34 46 41 36 38
REFUSED 2 1 - 2 1 2 2 2 2
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Favorable 40% 72% 12% 40% 42% 38% 45% 6% 31%
Unfavorable 29 3 58 26 25 32 26 43 32
Hvn't hrd enough 29 24 29 31 31 28 27 47 35
REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 3 2
6. Do you think John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Good choice 58% 86% 30% 60% 63% 54% 62% 30% 52%
Bad choice 32 8 60 28 28 35 28 53 39
DK/NA 10 7 10 12 9 11 9 17 9
7. Do you think Barack Obama's selection of Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Good choice 51% 31% 70% 54% 49% 53% 49% 75% 55%
Bad choice 30 45 18 28 37 24 32 14 29
DK/NA 19 24 12 17 14 23 19 11 16
8. Does John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin for Vice President make you more likely to vote for McCain for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
More likely 24% 42% 6% 26% 25% 23% 28% 6% 19%
Less likely 22 3 43 23 21 23 19 47 24
Doesn't make diff 51 52 50 48 51 51 51 43 55
DK/NA 3 3 1 3 2 3 3 4 2
9. Does Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Obama for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
More likely 16% 3% 28% 18% 15% 16% 13% 35% 17%
Less likely 13 22 4 12 16 9 15 1 8
Doesn't make diff 68 70 67 68 66 70 69 60 71
DK/NA 3 4 1 3 2 4 3 4 4
10. If it became necessary, who would you rather see become president of the United States, Sarah Palin or Joe Biden?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Palin 42% 76% 12% 43% 47% 38% 47% 8% 33%
Biden 47 15 82 46 45 50 43 79 56
DK/NA 10 9 6 11 8 12 10 13 11
11. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The vice presidential candidates picked by Barack Obama and John McCain have little to do with which candidate I will vote for, for president?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Agree 60% 61% 66% 55% 64% 56% 58% 73% 62%
Disagree 36 36 31 42 33 39 38 26 33
DK/NA 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 1 5
12. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Terrorism 8% 19% 1% 8% 10% 7% 10% 1% 7%
The war in Iraq 11 9 13 9 10 12 12 5 7
The economy 58 46 66 59 55 60 56 71 63
Illegal immigration 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 - 2
Energy policy 6 9 5 5 7 5 7 3 6
Health care 10 9 13 9 9 10 8 17 10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 4 1 4 4 2 3 2 4
DK/NA 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 1 1
13. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
More likely 2% 3% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% - -
Less likely 25 10 45 23 21 29 23 43 25
Doesn't make diff 73 87 54 74 77 69 75 57 74
DK/NA - - 1 1 - - - - 1
14. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
More likely 6% 1% 14% 4% 5% 7% 3% 30% 6%
Less likely 4 5 3 4 6 2 4 1 4
Doesn't make diff 89 93 83 92 88 90 92 69 90
DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1
15. How likely is it that the presidential debates could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Very likely 7% 5% 6% 11% 8% 7% 6% 11% 8%
Smwht likely 19 15 16 24 21 17 19 18 22
Not too likely 21 23 21 20 20 23 22 14 20
Not likely at all 52 56 58 44 51 52 51 57 49
DK/NA 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 1
CAND CHOICEQ1
Obama McCain
MI
Very likely 7% 5%
Smwht likely 17 19
Not too likely 22 22
Not likely at all 54 53
DK/NA - 1
16. How likely is it that the vice-presidential debate could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Very likely 6% 3% 4% 9% 5% 6% 5% 11% 5%
Smwht likely 14 13 15 15 14 15 14 12 17
Not too likely 16 16 12 16 15 17 17 8 19
Not likely at all 64 67 68 59 66 62 63 69 58
DK/NA 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - 1
CAND CHOICEQ1
Obama McCain
MI
Very likely 3% 5%
Smwht likely 15 13
Not too likely 13 19
Not likely at all 68 63
DK/NA - 1
17. Which of the following statements do you agree with: John McCain is the candidate who will bring change OR Barack Obama is the candidate who will bring change OR Neither will bring change?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
McCain 21% 46% 3% 18% 20% 22% 24% 2% 15%
Obama 43 11 80 39 38 48 38 80 52
Neither 30 37 15 35 37 24 32 15 27
DK/NA 6 7 2 7 5 7 7 3 6
18. Which of the following statements do you agree with: I will be better off a year from now if John McCain is elected president OR I will be better off a year from now if Barack Obama is elected president OR I will not be better off a year from now?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Better off/McCain 25% 56% 3% 21% 27% 23% 28% 4% 19%
Better off/Obama 32 6 64 27 27 37 27 70 37
Not be better off 34 32 28 40 38 30 36 19 34
DK/NA 9 6 5 12 8 10 9 7 10
19. Who do you think better understands the economy - John McCain or Barack Obama?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
McCain 38% 76% 8% 32% 43% 32% 43% 5% 25%
Obama 50 14 83 52 45 54 43 90 58
DK/NA 13 10 9 16 12 13 14 5 17
20. Who do you think better understands foreign policy - John McCain or Barack Obama?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
McCain 64% 93% 37% 64% 70% 59% 70% 26% 60%
Obama 26 3 53 21 23 28 20 55 31
DK/NA 10 3 10 14 7 13 9 19 9
21. If John McCain is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Up 37% 18% 54% 38% 36% 38% 34% 58% 44%
Down 6 12 3 6 7 5 6 3 2
Same 51 68 36 51 53 49 55 32 49
DK/NA 5 3 7 5 3 7 5 7 5
22. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Up 47% 74% 19% 52% 54% 41% 52% 16% 41%
Down 13 4 22 12 11 14 10 30 15
Same 35 18 53 32 31 38 33 46 38
DK/NA 5 4 6 4 3 6 5 8 5
23. Barack Obama says he will cut taxes for 95 percent of working families. John McCain says Obama will actually raise taxes overall on most American families. Whom do you believe?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
McCain 41% 81% 9% 38% 46% 36% 46% 8% 34%
Obama 39 7 76 38 36 42 33 80 44
DK/NA 20 12 15 25 18 22 21 12 22
24. Do you think the news media has treated Sarah Palin fairly or unfairly?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Fairly 45% 23% 70% 43% 46% 44% 43% 62% 58%
Unfairly 45 68 22 46 45 45 47 23 36
DK/NA 10 8 8 11 9 11 10 15 7
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Approve 25% 57% 2% 20% 26% 25% 28% 7% 18%
Disapprove 71 36 98 75 71 70 67 93 79
DK/NA 4 7 - 5 3 5 5 - 3
26. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Very satisfied 1% 3% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Smwht satisfied 14 29 3 13 15 13 15 7 10
Smwht dissatisfied 29 42 18 27 33 26 31 20 28
Very dissatisfied 54 24 79 57 49 59 51 70 60
DK/NA 1 2 - 2 1 2 1 - 1
27. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Right thing 37% 71% 6% 35% 41% 33% 42% 2% 29%
Wrong thing 57 21 92 59 55 59 51 95 68
DK/NA 6 8 2 6 4 8 7 4 3
28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq?
A) Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops, with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months. OR
B) Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable, and then begin to withdraw them, without a fixed date for full withdrawal.
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
A) Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos 42% 15% 66% 43% 37% 46% 38% 70% 46%
B) Stay until stable/
No fixed dates 53 82 28 53 59 47 57 24 49
DK/NA 5 4 5 4 4 6 5 6 5
29. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
Getting ahead 10% 11% 7% 12% 14% 7% 10% 12% 10%
Falling behind 28 21 34 31 28 29 27 30 29
Holding steady 60 68 58 55 57 63 62 56 61
DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 3 1
30. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?
Union
MI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
A) Retirement funds 16% 14% 16% 18% 15% 17% 17% 12% 18%
B) Real estate vals 16 22 15 12 16 15 16 17 13
C) Health care cost 19 18 21 20 18 21 19 26 21
D) Gasoline prices 34 34 31 35 38 31 35 28 34
E) Food prices 10 6 13 11 9 11 9 11 10
DK/NA 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 6 5
***END***
