[Battleground Soundings in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin: A Quinnipiac University / washingtonpost.com / Wall Street Journal Poll

June 2008: Poll Highlights | Colorado | Michigan | Minnesota | Wisconsin

Minnesota Survey -- June 2008

From June 17 to 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,572 likely voters in Minnesota; the survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. The survey was conducted in partnership with washingtonpost.com and The Wall Street Journal.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".

                     

                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MINNESOTA            Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Obama                54%    12%    88%    54%    49%    58%    51%    53%
McCain               37     84      7     33     42     32     39     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      4      4     10      9      8      9      9

                     IMP ISSUE Q5......   Twin   Twin
                     War    Econ   Terr   Cities Suburb West   East

Obama                65%    56%    12%    62%    49%    46%    54%
McCain               25     35     84     31     42     42     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      8      4      6      8     12      9

                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath

Obama                63%    52%    49%    47%    62%    45%    57%    38%    50%
McCain               33     39     38     42     31     45     34     55     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      8     11     10      5      9      9      6      9

                     PresVt2004..  CongVt2006..  BushJobAppQ12
                     Bush   Kerry  Rep    Dem    App    Dis

Obama                19%    86%    16%    83%    10%    71%
McCain               73      8     80     11     84     19
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      4      4      6      6      8 

1a. (If candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?


                    CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
MI                   Tot    Obama  McCain

Made up              74%    74%    73%
Might change         23     23     24
DK/NA                 3      3      3

2a. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Al Franken the DFL candidate and Norm Coleman the Republican candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Franken or Coleman? This table includes "Leaners". (MN only)


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Franken              41%     4%    76%    35%    37%    45%    40%    47%
Coleman              51     92     17     55     57     45     52     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      -      1      1      1
DK/NA                 6      3      5      8      4      8      6      5

2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Favorable            59%    29%    78%    64%    57%    60%    57%    57%
Unfavorable          22     51      6     20     24     20     24     21
Hvn't hrd enough     16     18     13     14     16     16     17     18
REFUSED               3      3      3      3      3      4      3      4

3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Favorable            46%    73%    29%    46%    52%    41%    48%    46%
Unfavorable          32      9     53     29     30     33     31     35
Hvn't hrd enough     19     16     15     20     14     22     17     16
REFUSED               4      3      3      5      4      3      3      3

4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Terrorism             5%    12%     1%     4%     5%     5%     5%     5%
The war in Iraq      21     17     26     19     21     22     20     21
The economy          51     53     50     52     54     48     53     51
Illegal immigration   5      5      3      8      6      4      5      6
Health care          11      3     17     11      8     14     10     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4      4      2      4      4      4      4      3
DK/NA                 3      5      2      2      3      4      3      4

5. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

More likely           2%     5%     1%     2%     2%     2%     2%     1%
Less likely          22      6     33     26     22     23     22     24
Doesn't make diff    75     88     66     71     75     74     75     75
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1

6. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

More likely           5%     2%     8%     4%     7%     3%     4%     4%
Less likely           3      5      2      2      3      4      3      2
Doesn't make diff    90     92     89     93     88     91     91     93
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      2      1      1

7. In deciding your vote for President how important is the vice-presidential candidate - Very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Very important       37%    37%    36%    36%    32%    41%    37%    38%
Smwht important      45     46     47     46     44     46     45     43
Not too important    14     14     15     14     18     11     15     13
Not imprtnt at all    3      3      3      4      5      2      3      5
DK/NA                 1      -      -      1      1      1      1      -

8. Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate or not?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Yes                  34%    14%    51%    31%    26%    41%    33%    38%
No                   49     68     37     47     55     44     49     44
DK/NA                17     18     11     22     19     15     18     19

9. If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

More likely          19%     5%    29%    20%    12%    25%    18%    21%
Less likely          21     38      8     21     26     17     23     24
Doesn't make diff    57     54     62     58     60     55     56     53
DK/NA                 2      3      1      2      2      3      2      1

9a. If John McCain chooses Tim Pawlenty to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference? (MN & WI only)


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

More likely          18%    37%     6%    16%    20%    17%    19%    22%
Less likely          23      5     35     24     22     23     22     28
Doesn't make diff    56     56     57     57     56     57     56     49
DK/NA                 3      2      1      3      2      4      3      1

10. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think she would enthusiastically promote Barack Obama's agenda at the expense of her own ideas or not?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Yes                  42%    26%    57%    40%    40%    43%    42%    41%
No                   42     58     29     42     44     39     41     44
DK/NA                17     16     15     18     16     18     18     15

11. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think Bill Clinton would be a problem to the Obama administration or not?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Yes                  37%    57%    21%    38%    41%    33%    37%    30%
No                   56     33     73     55     54     58     55     62
DK/NA                 7     10      6      7      6      9      8      8

12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Approve              24%    59%     4%    18%    26%    23%    26%    23%
Disapprove           70     32     93     76     68     71     69     73
DK/NA                 6      9      2      6      5      7      5      4


13. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Very satisfied        3%     5%     1%     3%     3%     3%     3%     3%
Smwht satisfied      18     36      6     15     20     16     18     16
Smwht dissatisfied   32     42     25     31     31     32     32     29
Very dissatisfied    47     17     69     49     46     48     47     53
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      -      1      1      -

14. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Right thing          31%    65%     8%    28%    34%    28%    32%    26%
Wrong thing          61     28     85     64     59     64     60     63
DK/NA                 8      8      6      8      7      8      8     11



15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq - (READ OPTIONS, ORDER ROTATED)

  A. Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops with a fixed date
     to have them all out within 18 months. OR 
  B. Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable and then begin
     to withdraw them without a fixed date for full withdrawal?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

A. Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos    38%    14%    58%    37%    31%    45%    37%    39%
B. Stay until stable/
no fixed dates       54     82     35     55     62     46     55     52
DK/NA                 8      3      7      8      7      9      8      9


16. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Getting ahead        15%    20%    10%    15%    18%    12%    14%    14%
Falling behind       23     13     28     25     22     24     22     22
Holding steady       61     66     61     59     60     63     62     62
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      2      1      1

17. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now - (READ OPTIONS, ORDER ROTATED)

  A. Declining retirement fund values
  B. Declining real estate values
  C. Rising health care costs
  D. Rising gasoline prices
  E. Rising food prices
  
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

A. Retirement funds   9%    11%    10%     9%    10%     8%    10%    11%
B. Real estate val    9     11      8      9     11      6      8      6
C. Health care cost  21     11     29     20     19     23     21     19
D. Gasoline prices   42     52     37     40     44     41     43     49
E. Food prices       14     11     14     16     11     16     13     10
DK/NA                 6      4      3      7      6      5      5      5

Party ID: Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat an Independent, or what?


                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                                       Wht   Wht                                  
MN                   Tot  Prot  Cath   Prot  Cath   Wht   Men   Wom   

Republican           26%   31%   25%   32%   26%    27%   28%   23%   
Democrat             35%   33%   38%   32%   39%    34%   28%   41%   
Independent          31%   28%   30%   29%   28%    30%   35%   27%   
Other                6%    5%    5%    5%    4%     6%    7%    6%    
DK/NA                3%    2%    2%    2%    2%     3%    2%    3%    
 

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