[Battleground Soundings in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin: A Quinnipiac University / washingtonpost.com / Wall Street Journal Poll

June 2008: Poll Highlights | Colorado | Michigan | Minnesota | Wisconsin

Wisconsin Survey -- June 2008

From June 17 to 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,537 likely voters in Wisconsin; the survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. The survey was conducted in partnership with washingtonpost.com and The Wall Street Journal.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WISCONSIN            Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Obama                52%     8%    88%    50%    51%    53%    49%    59%
McCain               39     88      7     37     40     37     42     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      3      5     11      7      9      8      6

                     IMP ISSUE Q4......          Milwak        RestOf
                     War    Econ   Terr   Milwak Vicnty South  State

Obama                70%    55%     7%    60%    42%    56%    51%
McCain               23     37     86     28     51     35     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      7      7     12      5      9      8

                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath

Obama                61%    52%    47%    47%    56%    50%    49%    32%    49%
McCain               35     39     41     43     38     42     41     59     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      8     11      9      5      7      9      8      7

                     PresVt2004..  CongVt2006..  BushJobAppQ12
                     Bush   Kerry  Rep    Dem    App    Dis

Obama                16%    86%    10%    80%     9%    73%
McCain               77      7     85     13     83     18
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      7      4      7      8      8

1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?


                    CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
WI                   Tot    Obama  McCain

Made up              78%    80%    77%
Might change         20     19     23
DK/NA                 1      2      1

2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Favorable            54%    22%    79%    55%    53%    55%    52%    61%
Unfavorable          27     63      7     22     29     25     29     23
Hvn't hrd enough     16     11     12     19     15     16     15     15
REFUSED               4      3      2      4      3      4      4      2

3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Favorable            48%    83%    27%    49%    51%    46%    51%    41%
Unfavorable          30      6     51     27     31     30     30     37
Hvn't hrd enough     18      9     18     20     15     20     16     20
REFUSED               4      1      4      4      3      4      3      2


4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Terrorism             8%    19%     1%     9%     9%     7%     8%     5%
The war in Iraq      20     13     25     19     19     21     20     22
The economy          47     47     49     48     50     45     48     50
Illegal immigration   4      9      2      3      5      4      5      4
Health care          14      7     19     12     10     16     13     14
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4      4      2      5      4      3      4      3
DK/NA                 3      2      2      4      3      3      2      2

5. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72. Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

More likely           2%     3%     1%     2%     2%     1%     1%     2%
Less likely          20     10     30     17     19     21     20     22
Doesn't make diff    77     87     68     80     77     76     78     76
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      2      1      1      -

6. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

More likely           4%     2%     7%     2%     3%     5%     3%     4%
Less likely           4      8      4      3      4      4      5      4
Doesn't make diff    91     89     88     95     92     89     92     92
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      -      1      1      -

7. In deciding your vote for president how important is the vice-presidential candidate - Very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Very important       41%    32%    45%    43%    32%    48%    39%    38%
Smwht important      44     50     41     41     47     41     46     45
Not too important    12     14     11     13     16      9     13     13
Not imprtnt at all    3      3      3      3      5      1      3      3
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      1      -      -      -

8. Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his Vice- Presidential running mate or not?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Yes                  33%    15%    52%    29%    27%    39%    32%    35%
No                   48     61     35     52     51     44     49     50
DK/NA                19     24     13     19     22     16     19     16

9. If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

More likely          18%     4%    30%    17%    13%    22%    18%    20%
Less likely          21     43      6     22     23     20     23     24
Doesn't make diff    59     52     63     58     63     55     56     54
DK/NA                 2      2      1      3      2      3      2      3

9a. If John McCain chooses Tim Pawlenty to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference? (MN & WI only)


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

More likely           4%     8%     1%     3%     5%     3%     4%     4%
Less likely           7      5     10      6      8      7      7      8
Doesn't make diff    81     78     84     83     81     81     81     83
DK/NA                 8     10      5      8      6      9      8      6

10. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think she would enthusiastically promote Barack Obama's agenda at the expense of her own ideas or not?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Yes                  41%    26%    56%    36%    38%    43%    42%    44%
No                   43     60     29     44     48     38     42     40
DK/NA                16     14     15     19     14     19     16     16
           

11. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think Bill Clinton would be a problem to the Obama administration or not?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Yes                  41%    66%    23%    43%    46%    37%    42%    37%
No                   54     30     73     50     49     58     53     59
DK/NA                 5      4      4      6      4      6      5      4

12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Approve              27%    64%     4%    22%    30%    24%    29%    24%
Disapprove           67     26     93     71     66     68     66     74
DK/NA                 6     10      2      6      5      8      6      2

13. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Very satisfied        1%     3%     1%     1%     1%     2%     1%     1%
Smwht satisfied      18     43      4     14     19     18     19     13
Smwht dissatisfied   32     42     22     33     33     30     33     34
Very dissatisfied    47     12     72     50     45     49     46     52
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -

14. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Right thing          35%    77%    11%    29%    39%    31%    37%    35%
Wrong thing          59     18     84     66     57     61     58     62
DK/NA                 6      5      5      5      4      8      5      4

15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq - (READ OPTIONS, ORDER ROTATED)

  A. Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops with a fixed date
     to have them all out within 18 months. OR 
  B. Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable and then begin
     to withdraw them without a fixed date for full withdrawal?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

A. Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos    41%    15%    65%    38%    37%    45%    40%    46%
B. Stay until stable/
no fixed dates       51     81     26     56     57     46     54     47
DK/NA                 7      4      9      7      6      8      7      8
    

16. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Getting ahead        13%    19%     9%    11%    16%    10%    12%    14%
Falling behind       24     14     33     23     23     25     23     25
Holding steady       62     67     58     65     61     64     64     61
DK/NA                 1      -      1      -      1      1      1      -

17. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now - (READ OPTIONS, ORDER ROTATED)

A. Declining retirement fund values
B. Declining real estate values
C. Rising health care costs
D. Rising gasoline prices
E. Rising food prices

                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

A. Retirement funds  10%    10%     8%    12%    10%    10%    10%    11%
B. Real estate val    6      6      6      5      6      6      6      5
C. Health care cost  21     18     26     20     20     23     22     23
D. Gasoline prices   43     50     41     41     44     43     44     47
E. Food prices       15     13     15     14     14     15     13     10
DK/NA                 5      2      4      7      6      4      5      5

Party ID: Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat an Independent, or what?


                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                                       Wht   Wht                                  
WI                   Tot  Prot  Cath   Prot  Cath   Wht   Men   Wom   

Republican           26%   30%   26%   32%   27%    28%   27%   25%   
Democrat             37%   33%   35%   32%   35%    35%   30%   42%   
Independent          30%   29%   33%   29%   33%    30%   35%   26%   
Other                5%    4%    3%    4%    3%     4%    6%    4%    
DK/NA                3%    3%    2%    3%    2%     3%    2%    3%    

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