Sept. 2008: Poll Highlights | Colorado | Michigan | Minnesota | Wisconsin
Wisconsin Survey -- September 2008
From September 14 to 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,313 likely voters in Wisconsin; the survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. The survey was conducted in partnership with washingtonpost.com and The Wall Street Journal.
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
Union
WISCONSIN Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Obama 49% 6% 90% 42% 45% 53% 46% 58%
McCain 42 91 5 44 48 37 45 33
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 4 2 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 7 3 5 10 5 9 7 8
IMP ISSUE Q12.............
Energ Milwak RestOf
War Econ Terr Polcy Milwak Vicnty South State
Obama 58% 57% 3% 42% 54% 39% 57% 47%
McCain 34 35 89 55 34 56 32 45
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 2 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 7 8 8 1 9 4 9 7
WHITES.................................
AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn
18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath
Obama 55% 47% 49% 45% 50% 42% 51% 31% 43%
McCain 38 44 43 45 46 51 40 63 47
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 1 - 2 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 6 7 8 8 3 5 9 5 9
PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ25
Bush Kerry App Dis
Obama 12% 87% 4% 69%
McCain 82 9 90 23
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - -
DK/NA 5 3 4 7
Sep 23 Jul 24 Jun 26
TREND: 2008 2008 2008
Obama 49 50 52
McCain 42 39 39
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 7 9 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS.......
CAND CHOICEQ1
WI Tot Obama McCain
Made up 84% 86% 81%
Might change 15 12 19
DK/NA 1 2 -
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Favorable 53% 16% 85% 50% 48% 58% 51% 57%
Unfavorable 31 67 3 32 37 25 33 28
Hvn't hrd enough 12 13 11 13 11 13 12 13
REFUSED 4 4 1 6 4 4 4 2
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Favorable 49% 91% 17% 52% 53% 46% 53% 42%
Unfavorable 37 4 67 34 37 37 34 46
Hvn't hrd enough 11 5 14 10 8 13 10 10
REFUSED 3 - 2 5 2 4 3 3
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Favorable 34% 9% 58% 31% 34% 34% 33% 39%
Unfavorable 23 48 4 26 31 16 24 21
Hvn't hrd enough 41 43 38 42 34 48 42 38
REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Favorable 40% 82% 10% 39% 44% 36% 43% 33%
Unfavorable 31 2 57 29 29 33 29 39
Hvn't hrd enough 27 15 31 29 25 28 26 27
REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1
6. Do you think John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Good choice 57% 92% 30% 56% 61% 53% 60% 53%
Bad choice 33 3 58 33 32 35 31 39
DK/NA 10 5 12 11 7 12 9 7
7. Do you think Barack Obama's selection of Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Good choice 47% 23% 69% 45% 44% 50% 47% 54%
Bad choice 33 51 19 35 40 28 34 27
DK/NA 19 26 12 19 16 22 19 19
8. Does John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin for Vice President make you more likely to vote for McCain for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
More likely 23% 41% 6% 26% 25% 21% 24% 19%
Less likely 21 3 37 19 22 20 20 24
Doesn't make diff 54 53 56 53 52 56 54 54
DK/NA 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 3
9. Does Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Obama for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
More likely 13% 3% 23% 11% 13% 13% 12% 16%
Less likely 13 19 5 16 17 10 14 9
Doesn't make diff 71 76 70 71 69 73 72 72
DK/NA 2 3 1 2 1 4 2 3
10. If it became necessary, who would you rather see become president of the United States, Sarah Palin or Joe Biden?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Palin 42% 84% 11% 41% 46% 37% 44% 33%
Biden 46 6 81 42 44 47 44 54
DK/NA 13 10 7 16 10 15 12 13
11. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The vice presidential candidates picked by Barack Obama and John McCain have little to do with which candidate I will vote for, for president?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Agree 65% 62% 72% 61% 69% 62% 64% 69%
Disagree 32 36 26 36 29 35 33 29
DK/NA 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2
12. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Terrorism 7% 15% 1% 6% 8% 5% 7% 6%
The war in Iraq 12 9 12 12 9 14 11 8
The economy 51 40 59 52 50 53 52 59
Illegal immigration 3 3 1 4 4 2 3 4
Energy policy 10 12 9 10 14 5 10 8
Health care 11 11 14 8 8 14 10 10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 5 2 4 5 3 4 2
DK/NA 3 4 2 5 4 3 3 3
13. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
More likely 2% 5% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 1%
Less likely 25 8 40 24 23 26 24 27
Doesn't make diff 72 87 57 75 73 71 73 70
DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1
14. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
More likely 5% 1% 11% 3% 6% 5% 4% 6%
Less likely 4 7 2 3 5 3 4 2
Doesn't make diff 90 91 87 94 88 92 92 92
DK/NA - - - 1 - - - -
15. How likely is it that the presidential debates could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Very likely 7% 4% 10% 6% 5% 8% 6% 7%
Smwht likely 18 12 14 26 17 19 19 18
Not too likely 24 27 20 29 24 25 25 23
Not likely at all 49 54 55 39 52 46 48 50
DK/NA 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1
CAND CHOICEQ1
Obama McCain
WI
Very likely 6% 5%
Smwht likely 16 19
Not too likely 24 26
Not likely at all 53 49
DK/NA 1 2
16. How likely is it that the vice-presidential debate could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Very likely 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 6%
Smwht likely 12 10 11 13 10 15 13 12
Not too likely 20 21 14 28 19 22 21 14
Not likely at all 62 63 70 55 66 58 61 67
DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 1
CAND CHOICEQ1
Obama McCain
WI
Very likely 4% 3%
Smwht likely 11 11
Not too likely 15 25
Not likely at all 70 59
DK/NA 1 1
17. Which of the following statements do you agree with: John McCain is the candidate who will bring change OR Barack Obama is the candidate who will bring change OR Neither will bring change?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
McCain 22% 57% 2% 17% 24% 20% 24% 18%
Obama 45 5 83 39 40 50 42 48
Neither 27 33 13 36 30 24 28 31
DK/NA 6 5 2 9 6 6 6 3
18. Which of the following statements do you agree with: I will be better off a year from now if John McCain is elected president OR I will be better off a year from now if Barack Obama is elected president OR I will not be better off a year from now?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Better off/McCain 27% 68% 1% 25% 32% 23% 30% 20%
Better off/Obama 34 1 67 28 29 39 32 37
Not be better off 30 22 29 34 32 27 30 35
DK/NA 9 8 4 12 7 10 9 8
19. Who do you think better understands the economy - John McCain or Barack Obama?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
McCain 40% 84% 9% 39% 45% 36% 43% 33%
Obama 47 8 82 43 45 49 44 54
DK/NA 13 8 8 18 10 15 13 13
20. Who do you think better understands foreign policy - John McCain or Barack Obama?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
McCain 65% 95% 38% 68% 70% 60% 68% 62%
Obama 23 1 47 19 21 25 21 27
DK/NA 12 3 15 13 9 15 11 11
21. If John McCain is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Up 33% 14% 49% 30% 26% 40% 32% 40%
Down 5 8 3 6 7 4 6 3
Same 55 73 42 58 62 49 57 53
DK/NA 6 5 6 6 4 8 6 4
22. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Up 48% 74% 26% 47% 54% 42% 49% 45%
Down 13 4 22 13 14 13 12 14
Same 32 17 47 31 27 37 33 35
DK/NA 7 6 5 8 5 8 6 5
23. Barack Obama says he will cut taxes for 95 percent of working families. John McCain says Obama will actually raise taxes overall on most American families. Whom do you believe?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
McCain 41% 82% 11% 40% 47% 35% 43% 37%
Obama 41 5 75 36 37 45 39 43
DK/NA 18 13 15 24 17 20 18 20
24. Do you think the news media has treated Sarah Palin fairly or unfairly?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Fairly 44% 27% 62% 41% 45% 44% 44% 49%
Unfairly 46 68 28 45 47 45 46 42
DK/NA 10 4 10 14 8 11 10 10
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Approve 26% 59% 3% 24% 27% 24% 27% 18%
Disapprove 69 32 96 70 67 71 67 79
DK/NA 5 9 1 7 6 5 6 3
26. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Very satisfied 1% 2% 0% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2%
Smwht satisfied 17 36 5 16 20 15 19 11
Smwht dissatisfied 32 47 23 29 32 32 33 29
Very dissatisfied 49 14 71 53 46 52 48 58
DK/NA - - - - - - - -
27. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Right thing 38% 76% 14% 37% 42% 35% 41% 33%
Wrong thing 56 16 84 57 53 59 53 63
DK/NA 6 8 3 5 6 6 6 4
28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq?
A) Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops, with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months. OR
B) Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable, and then begin to withdraw them, without a fixed date for full withdrawal.
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
A) Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos 41% 17% 61% 37% 34% 47% 39% 43%
B) Stay until stable/
No fixed dates 55 79 35 59 62 48 57 52
DK/NA 5 4 4 5 4 5 4 5
29. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
Getting ahead 12% 17% 10% 10% 16% 9% 12% 10%
Falling behind 24 12 32 22 24 25 25 21
Holding steady 63 70 57 67 60 65 63 69
DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 -
30. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?
Union
WI Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds
A) Retirement funds 16% 16% 15% 16% 16% 16% 16% 20%
B) Real estate vals 9 11 9 8 10 8 8 5
C) Health care cost 22 17 25 25 22 23 24 27
D) Gasoline prices 35 39 35 31 36 34 34 34
E) Food prices 13 13 12 14 11 15 13 12
DK/NA 5 5 4 6 5 5 5 3
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