[Battleground Soundings in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin: A Quinnipiac University / washingtonpost.com / Wall Street Journal Poll

Sept. 2008: Poll Highlights | Colorado | Michigan | Minnesota | Wisconsin

Wisconsin Survey -- September 2008

From September 14 to 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,313 likely voters in Wisconsin; the survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. The survey was conducted in partnership with washingtonpost.com and The Wall Street Journal.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".

                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WISCONSIN            Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Obama                49%     6%    90%    42%    45%    53%    46%    58%
McCain               42     91      5     44     48     37     45     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      4      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      3      5     10      5      9      7      8

                     IMP ISSUE Q12.............
                                          Energ         Milwak        RestOf
                     War    Econ   Terr   Polcy  Milwak Vicnty South  State

Obama                58%    57%     3%    42%    54%    39%    57%    47%
McCain               34     35     89     55     34     56     32     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      3      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      8      8      1      9      4      9      7

                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath

Obama                55%    47%    49%    45%    50%    42%    51%    31%    43%
McCain               38     44     43     45     46     51     40     63     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      1      -      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      7      8      8      3      5      9      5      9

                     PresVt2004..  BushJobAppQ25
                     Bush   Kerry  App    Dis
Obama                12%    87%     4%    69%
McCain               82      9     90     23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      3      4      7

                     Sep 23  Jul 24  Jun 26
TREND:               2008    2008    2008

Obama                49      50      52
McCain               42      39      39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       9       8

1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.......

                            CAND CHOICEQ1
WI                   Tot    Obama  McCain

Made up              84%    86%    81%
Might change         15     12     19
DK/NA                 1      2      -

2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?


                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Favorable            53%    16%    85%    50%    48%    58%    51%    57%
Unfavorable          31     67      3     32     37     25     33     28
Hvn't hrd enough     12     13     11     13     11     13     12     13
REFUSED               4      4      1      6      4      4      4      2

3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Favorable            49%    91%    17%    52%    53%    46%    53%    42%
Unfavorable          37      4     67     34     37     37     34     46
Hvn't hrd enough     11      5     14     10      8     13     10     10
REFUSED               3      -      2      5      2      4      3      3

4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Favorable            34%     9%    58%    31%    34%    34%    33%    39%
Unfavorable          23     48      4     26     31     16     24     21
Hvn't hrd enough     41     43     38     42     34     48     42     38
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      2

5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Favorable            40%    82%    10%    39%    44%    36%    43%    33%
Unfavorable          31      2     57     29     29     33     29     39
Hvn't hrd enough     27     15     31     29     25     28     26     27
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      2      2      2      1

6. Do you think John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Good choice          57%    92%    30%    56%    61%    53%    60%    53%
Bad choice           33      3     58     33     32     35     31     39
DK/NA                10      5     12     11      7     12      9      7

7. Do you think Barack Obama's selection of Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Good choice          47%    23%    69%    45%    44%    50%    47%    54%
Bad choice           33     51     19     35     40     28     34     27
DK/NA                19     26     12     19     16     22     19     19

8. Does John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin for Vice President make you more likely to vote for McCain for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

More likely          23%    41%     6%    26%    25%    21%    24%    19%
Less likely          21      3     37     19     22     20     20     24
Doesn't make diff    54     53     56     53     52     56     54     54
DK/NA                 2      2      2      2      1      3      2      3

9. Does Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Obama for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

More likely          13%     3%    23%    11%    13%    13%    12%    16%
Less likely          13     19      5     16     17     10     14      9
Doesn't make diff    71     76     70     71     69     73     72     72
DK/NA                 2      3      1      2      1      4      2      3


10. If it became necessary, who would you rather see become president of the United States, Sarah Palin or Joe Biden?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Palin                42%    84%    11%    41%    46%    37%    44%    33%
Biden                46      6     81     42     44     47     44     54
DK/NA                13     10      7     16     10     15     12     13

11. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The vice presidential candidates picked by Barack Obama and John McCain have little to do with which candidate I will vote for, for president?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Agree                65%    62%    72%    61%    69%    62%    64%    69%
Disagree             32     36     26     36     29     35     33     29
DK/NA                 3      2      2      2      2      3      2      2

12. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Terrorism             7%    15%     1%     6%     8%     5%     7%     6%
The war in Iraq      12      9     12     12      9     14     11      8
The economy          51     40     59     52     50     53     52     59
Illegal immigration   3      3      1      4      4      2      3      4
Energy policy        10     12      9     10     14      5     10      8
Health care          11     11     14      8      8     14     10     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4      5      2      4      5      3      4      2
DK/NA                 3      4      2      5      4      3      3      3

13. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

More likely           2%     5%     1%     1%     3%     2%     2%     1%
Less likely          25      8     40     24     23     26     24     27
Doesn't make diff    72     87     57     75     73     71     73     70
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1

14. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

More likely           5%     1%    11%     3%     6%     5%     4%     6%
Less likely           4      7      2      3      5      3      4      2
Doesn't make diff    90     91     87     94     88     92     92     92
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -

15. How likely is it that the presidential debates could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Very likely           7%     4%    10%     6%     5%     8%     6%     7%
Smwht likely         18     12     14     26     17     19     19     18
Not too likely       24     27     20     29     24     25     25     23
Not likely at all    49     54     55     39     52     46     48     50
DK/NA                 2      2      1      1      1      2      1      1

                     CAND CHOICEQ1
                     Obama  McCain
WI
Very likely           6%     5%
Smwht likely         16     19
Not too likely       24     26
Not likely at all    53     49
DK/NA                 1      2

16. How likely is it that the vice-presidential debate could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Very likely           4%     4%     5%     4%     4%     4%     4%     6%
Smwht likely         12     10     11     13     10     15     13     12
Not too likely       20     21     14     28     19     22     21     14
Not likely at all    62     63     70     55     66     58     61     67
DK/NA                 1      2      1      -      1      1      1      1

                     CAND CHOICEQ1
                     Obama  McCain
WI
Very likely           4%     3%
Smwht likely         11     11
Not too likely       15     25
Not likely at all    70     59
DK/NA                 1      1

17. Which of the following statements do you agree with: John McCain is the candidate who will bring change OR Barack Obama is the candidate who will bring change OR Neither will bring change?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

McCain               22%    57%     2%    17%    24%    20%    24%    18%
Obama                45      5     83     39     40     50     42     48
Neither              27     33     13     36     30     24     28     31
DK/NA                 6      5      2      9      6      6      6      3

18. Which of the following statements do you agree with: I will be better off a year from now if John McCain is elected president OR I will be better off a year from now if Barack Obama is elected president OR I will not be better off a year from now?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Better off/McCain    27%    68%     1%    25%    32%    23%    30%    20%
Better off/Obama     34      1     67     28     29     39     32     37
Not be better off    30     22     29     34     32     27     30     35
DK/NA                 9      8      4     12      7     10      9      8

19. Who do you think better understands the economy - John McCain or Barack Obama?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

McCain               40%    84%     9%    39%    45%    36%    43%    33%
Obama                47      8     82     43     45     49     44     54
DK/NA                13      8      8     18     10     15     13     13

20. Who do you think better understands foreign policy - John McCain or Barack Obama?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

McCain               65%    95%    38%    68%    70%    60%    68%    62%
Obama                23      1     47     19     21     25     21     27
DK/NA                12      3     15     13      9     15     11     11

21. If John McCain is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Up                   33%    14%    49%    30%    26%    40%    32%    40%
Down                  5      8      3      6      7      4      6      3
Same                 55     73     42     58     62     49     57     53
DK/NA                 6      5      6      6      4      8      6      4

22. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Up                   48%    74%    26%    47%    54%    42%    49%    45%
Down                 13      4     22     13     14     13     12     14
Same                 32     17     47     31     27     37     33     35
DK/NA                 7      6      5      8      5      8      6      5

23. Barack Obama says he will cut taxes for 95 percent of working families. John McCain says Obama will actually raise taxes overall on most American families. Whom do you believe?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

McCain               41%    82%    11%    40%    47%    35%    43%    37%
Obama                41      5     75     36     37     45     39     43
DK/NA                18     13     15     24     17     20     18     20

24. Do you think the news media has treated Sarah Palin fairly or unfairly?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Fairly               44%    27%    62%    41%    45%    44%    44%    49%
Unfairly             46     68     28     45     47     45     46     42
DK/NA                10      4     10     14      8     11     10     10

25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                            
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Approve              26%    59%     3%    24%    27%    24%    27%    18%
Disapprove           69     32     96     70     67     71     67     79
DK/NA                 5      9      1      7      6      5      6      3

26. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Very satisfied        1%     2%     0%     2%     2%     1%     1%     2%
Smwht satisfied      17     36      5     16     20     15     19     11
Smwht dissatisfied   32     47     23     29     32     32     33     29
Very dissatisfied    49     14     71     53     46     52     48     58
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -

27. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Right thing          38%    76%    14%    37%    42%    35%    41%    33%
Wrong thing          56     16     84     57     53     59     53     63
DK/NA                 6      8      3      5      6      6      6      4

28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq?

A) Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops, with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months. OR

B) Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable, and then begin to withdraw them, without a fixed date for full withdrawal.

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

A) Begin immediate
 withdrawal/18 mos   41%    17%    61%    37%    34%    47%    39%    43%
B) Stay until stable/
 No fixed dates      55     79     35     59     62     48     57     52
DK/NA                 5      4      4      5      4      5      4      5

29. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?

                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

Getting ahead        12%    17%    10%    10%    16%     9%    12%    10%
Falling behind       24     12     32     22     24     25     25     21
Holding steady       63     70     57     67     60     65     63     69
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      -      1      1      -

30. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?


                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds

A) Retirement funds  16%    16%    15%    16%    16%    16%    16%    20%
B) Real estate vals   9     11      9      8     10      8      8      5
C) Health care cost  22     17     25     25     22     23     24     27
D) Gasoline prices   35     39     35     31     36     34     34     34
E) Food prices       13     13     12     14     11     15     13     12
DK/NA                 5      5      4      6      5      5      5      3

***END***

© The Washington Post Company