Elections 2004: Washington Post Daily Tracking Poll
Tuesday, October 19, 2004; 5 p.m. ET | | | | The Washington Post tracking poll will be conducted daily until Election Day. The latest tracking result represents the three-night average of data collected by telephone Oct 16 - 18 among a randomly selected national sample of 1,802 adults, including 1,593 self-identified registered voters and 1,237 likely voters. The Post and ABC News collect data jointly but are responsible for developing their own methods to identify likely voters. This may produce slightly different estimates of candidate support. The margin of sampling error for results based on these three groups is plus or minus 3 percentage points, and slightly larger for subsamples. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error in this or any other public opinion poll. Interviewing was conducted by TNS of Horsham, Pa. More on Poll Methodology *= less than 0.5 percent 1. How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No
closely closely closely at all opin.
10/18/04 RV 52 36 7 4 *
10/17/04 RV 52 37 7 5 *
10/16/04 RV 53 35 7 5 *
10/15/04 RV 53 34 7 5 *
10/14/04 RV 52 35 8 5 *
10/13/04 RV 52 36 8 5 *
10/12/04 RV 52 36 7 4 *
10/11/04 RV 53 35 8 4 *
10/10/04 RV 52 35 8 4 *
10/9/04 RV 52 36 8 4 *
10/8/04 RV 53 35 8 4 *
10/7/04 RV 53 35 8 4 1
10/6/04 RV 51 37 8 4 *
10/5/04 RV 50 38 7 5 *
10/4/04 RV 49 39 7 5 *
10/3/04 RV 48 39 7 5 *
9/26/04 RV 48 39 8 4 1
9/8/04 RV 45 40 10 4 1
8/29/04 RV 43 38 13 7 *
8/1/04 RV 41 39 13 7 *
7/25/04 34 39 15 12 *
7/11/04 36 43 13 7 1
6/20/04 33 45 15 7 *
5/23/04 33 41 17 9 *
4/18/04 30 45 16 9 0
3/7/04 33 42 18 7 *
2/11/04 30 45 15 10 *
1/18/04 22 44 22 13 *
10/29/03 15 39 30 15 0
9/13/03 16 40 27 17 * Compare to: How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No
closely closely closely at all opin.
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 54 38 6 2 *
11/5/00 53 38 6 2 *
11/4/00 52 39 7 2 *
11/3/00 51 40 6 3 *
11/2/00 48 42 7 3 *
11/1/00 48 43 7 2 *
10/31/00 46 44 7 2 *
10/30/00 47 44 7 2 *
10/29/00 47 43 7 3 *
10/28/00 47 42 7 3 *
10/27/00 48 41 7 4 *
10/26/00 47 42 8 3 *
10/25/00 47 42 8 3 0
10/24/00 44 43 10 3 0
10/23/00 44 45 8 3 0
10/22/00 44 44 9 3 0
10/21/00 46 41 9 4 *
10/20/00 46 40 11 4 *
10/19/00 44 41 10 4 *
10/18/00 42 45 10 3 *
10/17/00 40 46 10 3 *
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 33 44 15 8 *
10/9/00 30 45 16 9 *
10/1/00 27 48 17 8 *
9/6/00 26 48 17 9 *
8/20/00 28 46 16 10 1
8/10/00 29 43 18 11 *
General Population:
8/6/00 17 36 22 25 *
7/29/00 16 35 25 24 *
7/23/00 14 36 25 25 *
6/11/00 13 36 26 25 0
4/2/00 17 36 24 23 0
3/11/00 21 40 21 17 0
2/27/00 24 46 20 10 *
2/6/00 19 48 21 13 0
1/16/00 11 39 26 24 *
12/15/99 12 33 31 24 *
10/31/99 16 45 25 13 * 2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don't think Already
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/18/04 RV 84 7 5 2 * 2 *
10/17/04 RV 84 7 5 2 * 2 *
10/16/04 RV 86 6 4 2 * 1 *
10/15/04 RV 87 6 4 2 * 1 *
10/14/04 RV 87 6 3 2 * 1 *
10/13/04 RV 86 7 3 1 1 1 *
10/12/04 RV 87 7 3 1 1 1 *
10/11/04 RV 88 7 3 1 * * *
10/10/04 RV 90 6 2 1 * * 1
10/9/04 RV 90 6 2 1 * * *
10/8/04 RV 90 5 3 1 * * *
10/7/04 RV 89 6 3 1 * * *
10/6/04 RV 87 7 4 1 * * *
10/5/04 RV 87 7 4 1 1 * *
10/4/04 RV 87 8 4 1 1 * *
10/3/04 RV 87 8 3 1 1 * 1
9/26/04 RV 87 8 4 1 * NA *
9/8/04 RV 87 7 4 1 1 NA *
8/29/04 RV 84 10 4 2 * NA 0
8/1/04 RV 85 9 4 1 1 NA *
7/25/04 RV 85 7 5 2 * NA *
10/29/03 70 12 11 6 1 NA 0 2000: Registered Voters:
10/15/00 82 10 6 2 1 NA *
10/9/00 81 10 6 2 * NA *
10/1/00 81 10 5 3 1 NA *
9/6/00 78 12 5 3 1 NA *
8/20/00 78 13 6 3 1 NA 0
8/10/00 79 12 6 1 1 NA *
General Population:
8/6/00 64 12 11 8 5 NA *
7/29/00 61 15 9 11 3 NA *
7/23/00 59 17 10 11 4 NA *
6/11/00 60 13 11 10 4 NA *
5/10/00 63 15 10 8 4 NA 1
4/2/00 62 14 9 9 5 NA *
3/11/00 63 14 9 9 4 NA *
2/27/00 69 12 10 4 5 NA *
2/6/00 67 12 10 8 3 NA *
1/16/00 65 14 10 6 4 NA *
12/15/99 64 13 8 9 6 NA 1
10/31/99 72 11 10 5 3 NA * 3. (and 3a) If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats), or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents? Which candidate are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/18/04 51 46 1 * * 0 2
10/17/04 50 47 1 * * * 2
10/16/04 50 46 2 * * * 2
10/15/04 50 47 2 * * * 1
10/14/04 48 48 1 * 1 * 1
10/13/04 48 48 1 * 1 0 2
10/12/04 48 49 1 * 1 0 2
10/11/04 50 47 1 * 1 0 2
10/10/04 51 45 1 x 1 0 2
10/9/04 51 46 1 * 1 0 2
10/8/04 50 46 1 * 1 0 2
10/7/04 50 47 * * 1 0 1
10/6/04 49 47 1 1 1 0 1
10/5/04 49 47 1 1 1 0 1
10/4/04 51 45 1 * 1 0 1
10/3/04 51 46 1 * 1 * 1
9/26/04 51 45 1 * 1 0 2
9/8/04 52 43 2 * 1 0 2
8/29/04 48 48 1 * 1 0 2
8/1/04 47 49 2 * 1 0 1
7/25/04 50 46 2 * 1 * 1 Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/18/04 50 45 1 * * * 3
10/17/04 48 47 1 * 1 * 3
10/16/04 48 47 1 * 1 * 3
10/15/04 48 47 2 * 1 * 2
10/14/04 47 48 2 * 1 * 2
10/13/04 47 47 2 * 2 * 2
10/12/04 46 48 2 * 2 * 2
10/11/04 46 48 2 * 1 * 2
10/10/04 47 47 2 * 1 * 3
10/9/04 48 47 1 * 2 * 3
10/8/04 48 46 1 * 2 * 3
10/7/04 48 47 1 * 2 * 2
10/6/04 48 47 1 * 2 * 2
10/5/04 49 46 2 1 1 * 2
10/4/04 50 44 2 * 1 * 2
10/3/04 49 46 2 * 1 * 2
9/26/04 51 44 2 1 1 * 2
9/8/04 50 44 2 * 2 * 2
8/29/04 48 47 2 * 1 * 2
8/1/04 44 50 2 * 1 1 2
7/25/04 48 46 3 * 1 * 1
7/11/04 46 46 4 1 2 1 1
6/20/04 44 48 6 * 1 * 1
5/23/04 46 46 4 * 1 1 1
4/18/04 48 43 6 * 2 1 *
3/7/04 44 48 3 * 1 2 2 4. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No
vote NET Good Unlikely opin.
Likely voters:
10/18/04 All 90 9 3 6 1
Bush 91 8 3 5 1
Kerry 90 10 3 7 *
10/17/04 All 90 9 3 6 1
Bush 92 7 2 5 1
Kerry 89 11 4 7 *
10/16/04 All 89 10 5 6 1
Bush 92 8 3 5 1
Kerry 86 13 6 7 1
10/15/04 All 89 11 4 6 1
Bush 91 9 3 6 *
Kerry 88 11 5 6 1
10/14/04 All 88 12 4 7 1
Bush 89 10 3 7 *
Kerry 88 11 5 7 1
10/13/04 All 87 12 5 7 1
Bush 89 11 4 7 1
Kerry 87 12 4 8 1
10/12/04 All 86 13 5 7 1
Bush 88 11 5 6 1
Kerry 86 13 5 8 1
10/11/04 All 86 13 6 7 1
Bush 88 11 5 5 1
Kerry 85 14 6 8 1
10/10/04 All 86 13 6 7 1
Bush 88 12 5 6 1
Kerry 86 13 6 7 1
10/9/04 All 87 12 5 7 1
Bush 88 11 5 6 1
Kerry 88 12 6 6 1
10/8/04 All 88 11 4 7 1
Bush 89 10 3 7 1
Kerry 88 11 5 6 1
10/7/04 All 90 10 4 6 1
Bush 89 10 3 7 1
Kerry 90 9 4 5 *
10/6/04 All 88 11 4 7 1
Bush 88 11 4 7 1
Kerry 88 11 4 7 1
10/5/04 All 87 13 5 7 1
Bush 87 12 5 7 1
Kerry 87 12 4 8 1
10/4/04 All 86 14 6 8 1
Bush 87 12 6 6 1
Kerry 86 13 4 9 1
10/3/04 All 86 12 6 7 1
Bush 88 11 5 6 1
Kerry 86 13 5 8 2
9/26/04 All 88 11 3 8 1
Bush 88 11 3 8 2
Kerry 89 10 2 8 1
Registered voters:
9/26/04 All 82 16 4 12 2
Bush 83 15 5 10 2
Kerry 84 15 3 13 1
9/8/04 All 84 14 6 8 2
Bush 88 11 5 6 1
Kerry 81 16 6 10 3
8/29/04 All 81 18 7 11 1
Bush 82 16 7 10 1
Kerry 81 18 6 12 1
8/1/04 All 80 19 7 12 1
Bush 79 20 7 13 1
Kerry 83 16 5 11 1
7/25/04 All 78 20 7 13 2
Bush 80 19 7 12 1
Kerry 80 18 5 13 2
7/11/04 All 79 21 7 13 1
Bush 78 22 8 14 *
Kerry 80 19 7 13 1
6/20/04 All 73 26 12 14 *
Bush 80 20 8 12 *
Kerry 74 26 12 13 1 Compare to 2000: Gore: Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No
vote NET Good Unlikely opin.
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 92 7 3 4 1
11/5/00 91 9 4 5 *
11/4/00 90 10 4 6 *
11/3/00 88 11 5 6 1
11/2/00 84 16 7 9 1
11/1/00 83 16 7 9 1
10/31/00 83 17 6 11 1
10/30/00 88 12 4 8 0
10/29/00 88 12 5 7 *
10/28/00 88 11 5 6 1
10/27/00 85 14 6 8 1
10/26/00 85 14 6 8 1
10/25/00 84 15 7 8 1
10/24/00 83 15 7 8 1
10/23/00 83 16 7 9 1
10/22/00 80 18 7 11 1
10/21/00 80 18 8 10 1
10/20/00 78 21 10 11 2
10/19/00 80 17 8 9 2
10/18/00 80 17 8 9 3
10/17/00 80 17 8 9 3
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 75 23 10 13 3
10/9/00 71 25 10 15 4
10/1/00 68 30 15 15 2
9/6/00 69 29 11 18 2
8/20/00 71 27 9 18 2
8/6/00 65 32 14 18 3
General Population:
8/6/00 62 36 16 20 2
7/23/00 58 41 15 26 2 Bush: Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No
vote NET Good Unlikely opin.
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 92 7 3 4 1
11/5/00 91 7 3 4 2
11/4/00 89 9 4 5 2
11/3/00 88 11 5 6 2
11/2/00 88 11 5 6 1
11/1/00 90 10 5 5 1
10/31/00 89 9 5 4 1
10/30/00 87 12 5 7 1
10/29/00 87 11 5 6 1
10/28/00 86 13 6 7 1
10/27/00 88 12 6 6 1
10/26/00 86 13 5 8 1
10/25/00 86 13 4 9 *
10/24/00 85 15 5 10 1
10/23/00 85 14 6 8 1
10/22/00 86 13 5 8 1
10/21/00 87 12 5 7 1
10/20/00 86 13 4 9 1
10/19/00 85 15 6 9 1
10/18/00 84 15 6 9 1
10/17/00 83 16 8 8 0
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 76 24 12 12 1
10/9/00 72 25 11 14 3
10/1/00 71 27 14 13 2
9/6/00 70 29 13 16 1
8/20/00 68 32 12 20 1
8/6/00 68 30 14 16 1
General Population
8/6/00 65 33 15 18 2
7/23/00 63 36 14 22 2 20. (Was this/will this be) the first time you've voted in a presidential election, or have you voted in previous presidential elections? First time Voted in previous No opinion
10/18/04 RV 9 91 0
10/17/04 RV 10 90 0
10/16/04 RV 11 89 0
10/15/04 RV 12 88 0
10/14/04 RV 11 89 0
10/13/04 RV 11 89 0
10/12/04 RV 9 91 0
10/11/04 RV 9 91 0
10/10/04 RV 9 91 0
10/9/04 RV 11 89 0
10/8/04 RV 11 89 0
10/7/04 RV 10 90 0
10/6/04 RV 10 90 0
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