Washington Post-ABC News Poll: Elections 2004
Thursday, September 9, 2004 | | | | This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone September 6-8, 2004 among 1,202 randomly selected adults nationwide, including 952 self-identified registered voters. Margin of sampling error for overall results and for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points. Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, Pa. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No
closely closely closely at all opin.
9/8/04 RV 45 40 10 4 1
8/29/04 RV 43 38 13 7 *
8/1/04 RV 41 39 13 7 *
7/25/04 34 39 15 12 *
7/11/04 36 43 13 7 1
6/20/04 33 45 15 7 *
5/23/04 33 41 17 9 *
4/18/04 30 45 16 9 0
3/7/04 33 42 18 7 *
2/11/04 30 45 15 10 *
1/18/04 22 44 22 13 *
10/29/03 15 39 30 15 0
9/13/03 16 40 27 17 * Compare to: How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No
closely closely closely at all opin.
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 54 38 6 2 *
11/5/00 53 38 6 2 *
11/4/00 52 39 7 2 *
11/3/00 51 40 6 3 *
11/2/00 48 42 7 3 *
11/1/00 48 43 7 2 *
10/31/00 46 44 7 2 *
10/30/00 47 44 7 2 *
10/29/00 47 43 7 3 *
10/28/00 47 42 7 3 *
10/27/00 48 41 7 4 *
10/26/00 47 42 8 3 *
10/25/00 47 42 8 3 0
10/24/00 44 43 10 3 0
10/23/00 44 45 8 3 0
10/22/00 44 44 9 3 0
10/21/00 46 41 9 4 *
10/20/00 46 40 11 4 *
10/19/00 44 41 10 4 *
10/18/00 42 45 10 3 *
10/17/00 40 46 10 3 *
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 33 44 15 8 *
10/9/00 30 45 16 9 *
10/1/00 27 48 17 8 *
9/6/00 26 48 17 9 *
8/20/00 28 46 16 10 1
8/10/00 29 43 18 11 *
General Population:
8/6/00 17 36 22 25 *
7/29/00 16 35 25 24 *
7/23/00 14 36 25 25 *
6/11/00 13 36 26 25 0
4/2/00 17 36 24 23 0
3/11/00 21 40 21 17 0
2/27/00 24 46 20 10 *
2/6/00 19 48 21 13 0
1/16/00 11 39 26 24 *
12/15/99 12 33 31 24 *
10/31/99 16 45 25 13 * 2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don't think
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) op.
9/8/04 RV 87 7 4 1 1 *
8/29/04 RV 84 10 4 2 * 0
8/1/04 RV 85 9 4 1 1 *
7/25/04 RV 85 7 5 2 * *
10/29/03 70 12 11 6 1 0 Compare to: I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don't think
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) op.
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 82 10 6 2 1 *
10/9/00 81 10 6 2 * *
10/1/00 81 10 5 3 1 *
9/6/00 78 12 5 3 1 *
8/20/00 78 13 6 3 1 0
8/10/00 79 12 6 1 1 *
General Population:
8/6/00 64 12 11 8 5 *
7/29/00 61 15 9 11 3 *
7/23/00 59 17 10 11 4 *
6/11/00 60 13 11 10 4 *
5/10/00 63 15 10 8 4 1
4/2/00 62 14 9 9 5 *
3/11/00 63 14 9 9 4 *
2/27/00 69 12 10 4 5 *
2/6/00 67 12 10 8 3 *
1/16/00 65 14 10 6 4 *
12/15/99 64 13 8 9 6 1
10/31/99 72 11 10 5 3 * 3. (and 3a) If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats), or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents? Which candidates are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
9/8/04 52 43 2 * 1 0 2
8/29/04 48 48 1 * 1 0 2
8/1/04 47 49 2 * 1 0 1
7/25/04 50 46 2 * 1 * 1 Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
9/8/04 50 44 2 * 2 * 2
8/29/04 48 47 2 * 1 * 2
8/1/04 44 50 2 * 1 1 2
7/25/04 48 46 3 * 1 * 1
7/11/04 46 46 4 1 2 1 1
6/20/04 44 48 6 * 1 * 1
5/23/04 46 46 4 * 1 1 1
4/18/04 48 43 6 * 2 1 *
3/7/04 44 48 3 * 1 2 2 Net Leaned Vote, General Population: Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
7/11/04 45 46 5 1 2 1 1
6/20/04 42 48 7 * 1 1 1
5/23/04 45 44 6 * 1 2 1
4/18/04 47 42 7 * 2 1 *
3/7/04 42 47 5 * 1 3 2 4. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No
vote NET Good Unlikely opin.
Registered voters:
9/8/04 All 84 14 6 8 2
Bush 88 11 5 6 1
Kerry 81 16 6 10 3
8/29/04 All 81 18 7 11 1
Bush 82 16 7 10 1
Kerry 81 18 6 12 1
8/1/04 All 80 19 7 12 1
Bush 79 20 7 13 1
Kerry 83 16 5 11 1
7/25/04 All 78 20 7 13 2
Bush 80 19 7 12 1
Kerry 80 18 5 13 2
7/11/04 All 79 21 7 13 1
Bush 78 22 8 14 *
Kerry 80 19 7 13 1
6/20/04 All 73 26 12 14 *
Bush 80 20 8 12 *
Kerry 74 26 12 13 1
General Population:
6/20/04 All 71 28 13 15 1
Bush 78 21 9 13 *
Kerry 72 27 13 14 1 Compare to: Gore:
------Change mind------
Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 92 3 4 1
11/5/00 91 4 5 *
11/4/00 90 4 6 *
11/3/00 88 5 6 1
11/2/00 84 7 9 1
11/1/00 83 7 9 1
10/31/00 83 6 11 1
10/30/00 88 4 8 0
10/29/00 88 5 7 *
10/28/00 88 5 6 1
10/27/00 85 6 8 1
10/26/00 85 6 8 1
10/25/00 84 7 8 1
10/24/00 83 7 8 1
10/23/00 83 7 9 1
10/22/00 80 7 11 1
10/21/00 80 8 10 1
10/20/00 78 10 11 2
10/19/00 80 8 9 2
10/18/00 80 8 9 3
10/17/00 80 8 9 3
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 75 10 13 3
10/9/00 71 10 15 4
10/1/00 68 15 15 2
9/6/00 69 11 18 2
8/20/00 71 9 18 2
8/6/00 65 14 18 3
General Population:
8/6/00 62 16 20 2
7/23/00 58 15 26 2 Bush:
------Change mind------
Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 92 3 4 1
11/5/00 91 3 4 2
11/4/00 89 4 5 2
11/3/00 88 5 6 2
11/2/00 88 5 6 1
11/1/00 90 5 5 1
10/31/00 89 5 4 1
10/30/00 87 5 7 1
10/29/00 87 5 6 1
10/28/00 86 6 7 1
10/27/00 88 6 6 1
10/26/00 86 5 8 1
10/25/00 86 4 9 *
10/24/00 85 5 10 1
10/23/00 85 6 8 1
10/22/00 86 5 8 1
10/21/00 87 5 7 1
10/20/00 86 4 9 1
10/19/00 85 6 9 1
10/18/00 84 6 9 1
10/17/00 83 8 8 0
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 76 12 12 1
10/9/00 72 11 14 3
10/1/00 71 14 13 2
9/6/00 70 13 16 1
8/20/00 68 12 20 1
8/6/00 68 14 16 1
General Population
8/6/00 65 15 18 2
7/23/00 63 14 22 2 5. (and 6) (ASKED OF UNLEANED BUSH/KERRY SUPPORTERS) Do you support Bush/Kerry strongly or not strongly? -------------Bush------------ ------------Kerry------------
Strongly Not strongly No op. Strongly Not strongly No op.
9/8/04 RV 90 9 1 75 20 4
8/29/04 RV 86 13 2 76 23 1
8/1/04 RV 86 14 * 85 14 1
7/25/04 RV 88 11 1 72 26 2
4/18/04 RV 88 11 1 66 33 1
4/18/04 84 15 1 65 34 1
3/7/04 86 14 * 66 32 2
2/11/04 85 14 1 62 34 4 7. (ASKED OF LEANED BUSH SUPPORTERS) Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry? For Bush Against Kerry No opinion
9/8/04 RV 84 14 2
7/25/04 RV 81 17 2
6/20/04 RV 82 17 1
6/20/04 All 83 16 1
5/23/04 77 21 1
3/7/04 86 13 2 8. (ASKED OF LEANED KERRY SUPPORTERS) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush? For Kerry Against Bush No opinion
9/8/04 RV 41 55 4
7/25/04 RV 41 56 3
6/20/04 RV 43 55 1
6/20/04 All 44 55 1
5/23/04 38 61 1
3/7/04 38 61 1 9. (ASKED IF ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE) Many people plan to vote but don't get to it because of time or family or work commitments that get in the way. Is there any chance at all that might happen to you? Yes, might not vote No, definitely will vote No opinion
9/8/04 3 96 * 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
9/8/04 All 52 35 17 43 11 32 5
RV 52 38 14 45 11 33 3
8/29/04 All 50 31 19 47 13 34 3
RV 52 33 19 47 13 35 1
8/1/04 All 47 28 18 49 13 36 5
RV 48 29 19 51 13 38 2
7/25/04 All 50 32 19 47 13 34 3
RV 51 33 18 47 13 34 2
7/11/04 48 31 17 50 11 39 2
6/20/04 All 47 30 17 51 13 39 1
RV 48 32 15 51 12 40 1
5/23/04 47 31 17 50 14 36 3
4/18/04 51 33 18 47 13 34 1
3/7/04 50 32 18 48 12 36 2
2/11/04 50 30 21 47 14 34 2
1/18/04 58 35 24 40 9 30 2
12/21/03 59 39 21 38 15 23 3
12/14/03 57 37 20 39 10 29 5
12/7/03 53 32 21 40 13 27 7
11/16/03 57 34 23 39 11 28 4
10/29/03 56 30 26 42 13 29 2
10/13/03 53 33 20 43 13 29 4
9/30/03 54 34 20 44 15 29 2
9/13/03 58 35 23 40 14 27 2
9/7/03 56 34 22 41 13 28 4
8/11/03 59 37 22 37 14 23 4
7/10/03 59 35 24 38 13 25 3
6/22/03 68 45 23 29 11 18 4
4/30/03 71 50 22 26 17 9 3
4/16/03 74 52 22 23 9 14 3
4/9/03 77 58 19 20 6 14 4
4/3/03 71 54 16 25 7 19 4
3/23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4
3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5
3/2/03 62 38 23 35 13 22 4
2/23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6
2/9/03 64 42 21 34 14 20 3
2/1/03 62 41 21 34 13 22 4
1/28/03 62 43 19 36 13 23 2
1/27/03 59 39 21 37 15 22 4
1/20/03 59 36 23 38 16 22 2
12/15/02 66 37 28 32 12 20 2
11/4/02 LV 67 45 23 31 12 20 1
11/3/02 LV 67 45 22 32 12 20 1
11/2/02 LV 67 47 20 32 9 23 1
10/27/02 All 67 39 28 29 13 16 4
LV 68 47 21 30 14 16 3
9/26/02 67 42 25 30 12 18 3
9/8/02 71 42 28 27 12 15 3
7/28/02 69 39 31 28 14 14 3
7/15/02 72 42 31 25 12 13 2
6/17/02 74 42 32 22 9 13 4
6/9/02 77 41 36 20 9 11 3
5/19/02 76 48 28 22 8 13 3
4/21/02 78 47 31 20 9 10 2
3/28/02 79 49 30 18 8 10 3
3/10/02 82 52 30 16 9 7 2
1/27/02 83 56 27 14 7 7 3
12/19/01 86 64 22 12 6 6 2
11/27/01 89 69 21 9 4 5 1
11/6/01 89 65 24 9 5 4 2
10/9/01 92 76 16 6 3 3 1
9/27/01 90 70 20 6 3 3 4
9/13/01 86 63 23 12 5 6 2
9/9/01 55 26 29 41 20 22 3
8/12/01 61 28 33 31 14 17 8
7/30/01 59 28 30 38 17 22 3
6/3/01 55 27 28 40 18 22 6
4/22/01 63 33 30 32 16 16 5
3/25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8
2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22 11. Regardless of how you might vote, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of (NAME) or perhaps you don't know enough to say. 9/8/04 - Summary Table - Registered voters Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
a. John Kerry 36 42 23
b. George W. Bush 51 39 11
c. Dick Cheney 43 37 20
d. John Edwards 39 26 35 Trend: a. John Kerry Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
9/8/04 RV 36 42 23
8/29/04 RV 43 40 17
8/1/04 RV 51 32 16
7/25/04 RV 48 39 12
3/7/04 54 26 20 b. George W. Bush Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
9/8/04 RV 51 39 11
8/29/04 RV 50 40 9
8/1/04 RV 47 45 8
7/25/04 RV 54 43 3
3/7/04 47 46 7
9/6/00 RV 58 31 11
6/11/00 50 28 22
4/2/00 50 31 19
2/27/00 49 39 11
10/31/99 69 24 8
9/2/99 61 23 16
6/6/99 54 15 30
3/14/99 54 14 32
2/14/99 51 13 36
1/19/98 34 13 53 c. Dick Cheney Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
9/8/04 RV 43 37 20
8/29/04 RV 41 45 14
7/25/04 RV 43 41 17
3/7/04 RV 35 45 19
3/7/04 All 35 43 23
9/6/00 RV 42 20 38
7/29/00 29 10 60 d. John Edwards Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
9/8/04 RV 39 26 35
8/1/04 RV 49 18 33
7/25/04 RV 50 24 26 12. What will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year: (The U.S. campaign against terrorism), (the war in Iraq), (the economy and jobs), (education), (health care), or something else? Economy/ Educ- Health No
Terrorism Iraq jobs ation care Other op.
9/8/04 RV 25 18 27 6 13 8 2
8/29/04 RV 19 19 31 6 12 11 2
8/1/04 RV 20 23 25 7 11 12 2
7/25/04 RV 20 21 27 7 12 12 1 13. Who do you trust to do a better job handling (ITEM), (Bush) or (Kerry)? 8/29/04 - Summary Table - Registered voters Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. The economy 47 43 1 4 5
b. The situation in Iraq 53 37 1 4 6
c. Education 46 42 1 5 6
d. The US campaign against
terrorism 57 35 1 3 4
e. Health care 42 45 1 5 8
f. Taxes 50 40 * 5 5
g. Helping the middle class 42 47 1 6 4
h. Appointments to the U.S.
Supreme Court 46 36 1 3 15
i. Relations with other
countries 47 42 1 4 6
j. Creating jobs 43 45 1 6 6 Trend: a. The economy Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/8/04 RV 47 43 1 4 5
8/29/04 RV 48 47 1 2 2
8/1/04 RV 41 52 * 3 4
7/25/04 RV 47 46 1 3 4
7/11/04 RV 44 50 1 3 2
7/11/04 43 51 1 3 3
6/20/04 RV 45 50 1 2 1
6/20/04 45 50 1 3 1
5/23/04 43 48 * 5 3
4/18/04 47 47 1 4 1
3/7/04 41 53 * 4 2
2/11/04 41 49 1 4 5 b. The situation in Iraq Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/8/04 RV 53 37 1 4 6
8/29/04 RV 52 44 * 2 2
8/1/04 RV 46 48 * 2 4
7/25/04 RV 52 40 1 3 3
7/11/04 RV 47 47 1 4 2
7/11/04 47 47 1 3 2
6/20/04 RV 49 47 * 3 1
6/20/04 50 45 * 4 1
5/23/04 48 42 * 6 3
4/18/04 52 41 * 4 2
3/7/04 47 48 1 3 2
2/11/04 48 41 1 6 5 c. Education Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/8/04 RV 46 42 1 5 6
8/29/04 RV 47 47 1 2 3
8/1/04 RV 39 52 1 3 5
7/25/04 RV 44 45 1 4 6
7/11/04 RV 40 50 1 4 4
7/11/04 40 50 1 4 5
6/20/04 RV 43 52 1 2 2
6/20/04 42 52 1 2 2
4/18/04 47 44 1 6 2
3/7/04 40 52 1 3 4
2/11/04 40 49 1 6 5 d. The U.S. campaign against terrorism Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/8/04 RV 57 35 1 3 4
8/29/04 RV 56 38 1 2 3
8/1/04 RV 48 45 * 1 5
7/25/04 RV 55 37 2 3 3
7/11/04 RV 51 43 1 3 3
7/11/04 51 42 1 3 3
6/20/04 RV 48 47 * 3 2
6/20/04 47 48 1 3 1
5/23/04 52 39 1 4 4
4/18/04 58 37 1 3 1
3/7/04 57 36 2 2 3
2/11/04 53 37 1 4 5 e. Health care
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/8/04 RV 42 45 1 5 8
8/29/04 RV 43 50 * 3 4
8/1/04 RV 36 55 * 3 5
7/25/04 RV 44 47 1 4 5
6/20/04 RV 38 56 * 3 2
6/20/04 37 58 * 4 2 Compare to: The cost, availability, and coverage of health insurance 4/18/04 42 48 1 6 3
3/7/04 36 56 0 5 2
2/11/04 34 52 1 7 6 f. Taxes Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/8/04 RV 50 40 * 5 5
8/29/04 RV 48 46 * 2 4
8/1/04 RV 43 49 1 3 4
7/25/04 RV 49 43 1 4 4
6/20/04 RV 41 53 0 4 2
6/20/04 40 53 0 4 2
4/18/04 49 43 * 6 2
3/7/04 43 51 1 4 2 g. Helping the middle class Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/8/04 RV 42 47 1 6 4
8/29/04 RV 42 51 * 3 3 h. No trend. i. Relations with other countries Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/8/04 RV 47 42 1 4 6
8/1/04 RV 42 51 1 2 5 j. Creating jobs Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/8/04 RV 43 45 1 6 6
4/18/04 46 48 1 4 1
3/7/04 43 51 1 3 2
2/11/04 37 51 1 5 6 14. Please tell me whether the following statement applies more to (Bush) or more to (Kerry). 8/29/04 - Summary Table - Registered voters Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. He is honest and
trustworthy 48 35 3 11 4
b. He understands the
problems of people like
you 44 43 1 8 4
c. He is a strong leader 58 31 3 4 4
d. He will make the
country safer and
more secure 54 35 1 5 5
e. He shares your values 48 40 2 6 4
f. He's got a vision for
the future 49 40 5 3 3
g. He's taken a clear stand
on the issues 56 29 3 9 3
h. He has an appealing
personality 53 31 4 9 3 Trend: a. He is honest and trustworthy Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/8/04 RV 48 35 3 11 4
8/29/04 RV 47 41 2 8 3
8/1/04 RV 41 47 4 5 2
7/25/04 RV 46 40 2 10 2
6/20/04 RV 40 52 1 6 1
6/20/04 39 52 1 6 1 b. He understands the problems of people like you Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/8/04 RV 44 43 1 8 4
8/29/04 RV 42 48 1 8 2
8/1/04 RV 37 51 1 8 2
7/25/04 RV 42 46 1 9 2
6/20/04 RV 37 55 1 7 1
6/20/04 36 56 1 6 2 c. He is a strong leader Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/8/04 RV 58 31 3 4 4
8/29/04 RV 54 39 2 2 3
8/1/04 RV 50 44 2 2 3
7/25/04 RV 55 36 2 5 2
6/20/04 RV 50 45 1 3 2
6/20/04 51 43 2 3 2 d. He will make the country safer and more secure Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/8/04 RV 54 35 1 5 5
8/29/04 RV 53 40 2 3 2
8/1/04 RV 48 45 1 3 3
7/25/04 RV 54 38 1 4 2
6/20/04 RV 53 42 1 2 2
6/20/04 54 40 1 3 2 e. He shares your values Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/8/04 RV 48 40 2 6 4
8/29/04 RV 47 46 1 4 2
8/1/04 RV 44 50 1 3 2
7/25/04 RV 49 43 1 5 2
6/20/04 RV 46 48 1 3 1
6/20/04 46 48 1 4 1 f. He's got a vision for the future Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/8/04 RV 49 40 5 3 3
8/29/04 RV 45 48 3 3 2
8/1/04 RV 39 52 6 2 1 g,h. No trend. 15. Who do you think is better qualified to be commander in chief of the U.S. military, (Kerry) or (Bush)? Bush Kerry Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) No op.
9/8/04 RV 53 40 1 3 3
8/29/04 RV 53 43 * 2 1
8/1/04 RV 44 52 1 1 2 16. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? Satisfied Dissatisfied No opinion
9/8/04 RV 49 49 2
8/29/04 RV 44 54 1
7/25/04 46 53 1
4/9/03 65 32 3
3/23/03* 60 38 2
3/5/03* 36 61 3
2/9/03 49 49 2
7/30/01 53 47 1
11/4/00 LV 61 36 3
11/3/00 LV 61 35 4
11/2/00 LV 62 35 4
*Gallup. 17. If you had to choose, which of these two qualities is more important to you in a president, someone who (is a strong leader), or someone who (understands the problems of people like you)? Strong Understands problems of Both Neither No
leader people like you (vol.) (vol.) opin.
9/8/04 57 30 10 1 2 18. Based on his performance in office so far, would you say Bush deserves a second term as president, or not? Yes No No opinion
9/8/04 52 45 4 Compare to: Based on his performance in office so far, would you say Clinton deserves a second term as president, or not? Yes No No opinion
5/22/96 56 42 2
1/21/96 47 49 4
1/24/95 ALL 41 55 3
1/24/95*HEARD 48 47 4
8/16/94 38 56 6
* Heard about Clinton's speech 19. Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about (Bush/Kerry) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? 9/8/04 - Summary Table - Among Leaned Bush/Kerry Supporters ----Enthusiastic--- -----Not Enthusiastic----- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op.
a. Bush 95 63 32 5 4 * *
b. Kerry 85 39 46 14 10 4 1 Trend: ----Enthusiastic--- -----Not Enthusiastic----- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op.
Bush
9/8/04 RV 95 63 32 5 4 * *
8/29/04 RV 94 56 38 6 5 1 *
8/1/04 RV 90 53 37 10 8 2 *
7/25/04 RV 90 49 41 10 8 1 *
6/20/04 RV 90 50 40 9 7 2 *
6/20/04 All 90 48 42 10 8 2 * ----Enthusiastic--- -----Not Enthusiastic----- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op.
Kerry
9/8/04 RV 85 39 46 14 10 4 1
8/29/04 RV 89 40 49 11 9 2 *
8/1/04 RV 92 56 36 7 6 1 1
7/25/04 RV 90 41 49 10 9 1 0
6/20/04 RV 85 34 51 15 12 3 0
6/20/04 All 83 33 50 17 13 4 0 20. Do you think (NAME)'s views on most issues are too (liberal) for you, too (conservative) for you, or just about right? 9/8/04 - Summary Table Too Too About No
liberal conservative right opin.
a. Bush 11 32 49 7
b. Kerry 42 5 43 10 Trend: a. Bush Too Too About No
liberal conservative right opin.
9/8/04 RV 11 32 49 7
7/25/04 RV 12 38 48 3
6/20/04 RV 14 38 46 2
6/20/04 All 14 38 46 2
3/7/04 14 33 49 4
12/21/03 14 29 52 5
6/3/01 15 32 50 4
4/22/01 10 31 55 3
9/6/00 RV 12 31 51 6
7/23/00 RV 12 29 52 7
7/23/00 12 28 52 8
3/11/00 12 28 52 8
2/27/00 10 33 51 5
2/24/00 12 33 43 12
2/6/00 12 30 49 8
9/2/99 10 20 58 13
3/14/99 7 20 53 20 b. Kerry Too Too About No
liberal conservative right opin.
9/8/04 RV 42 5 43 10
7/25/04 RV 40 8 46 6
6/20/04 RV 36 9 51 4
6/20/04 All 34 10 51 5
3/7/04 33 6 52 8 21. How would you rate (NAME)'s campaign for president so far - would you say (NAME) has done an excellent job, good, not so good or poor? a. Bush ---Excellent/Good--- ---Not so good/Poor-- No
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor opinion
9/8/04 RV 68 17 52 29 17 13 2 b. Kerry ---Excellent/Good--- ---Not so good/Poor-- No
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor opinion
9/8/04 RV 52 5 47 45 29 16 2 Compare to: How would you rate Bob Dole's campaign for president so far - would you say Dole has done an excellent job, good, not so good or poor? ---Excellent/Good--- ---Not so good/Poor-- No
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor opinion
1996 Rep Dels 52 6 45 47 30 17 1
Dem Dels 5 0 5 94 30 64 1
8/5/96 Gen Pop 42 3 39 54 34 20 4 Compare to: And how would you rate Bill Clinton's campaign for president so far - would you say Clinton has done an excellent job, good, not so good or poor? ---Excellent/Good--- ---Not so good/Poor-- No
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor opinion
1996 Rep Dels 73 23 50 23 10 13 4
Dem Dels 99 43 56 1 1 0 0
8/5/96 Gen Pop 69 9 60 29 21 8 2 22. Does (ITEM) make you more likely to support him for president, less likely, or doesn't it affect your vote one way or the other? 9/8/04 - Summary Table - Registered Voters More Less Doesn't No
likely likely affect op.
a. Kerry's military service in the
Navy during the Vietnam War 23 13 63 1
b. Bush's military service in the
Texas National Guard during the
Vietnam War 7 18 74 1
c. Kerry's opposition to the Vietnam
War after leaving the military 20 28 50 2 Trend: a. Kerry's military service in the Navy during the Vietnam War More Less Doesn't No
likely likely affect opinion
9/8/04 RV 23 13 63 1
8/29/04 RV 24 14 61 1 b. Bush's military service in the Texas National Guard during the Vietnam War More Less Doesn't No
likely likely affect opinion
9/8/04 RV 7 18 74 1
8/29/04 RV 7 22 70 1 c. Kerry's opposition to the Vietnam War after leaving the military More Less Doesn't No
likely likely affect opinion
9/8/04 RV 20 28 50 2
8/29/04 RV 21 26 51 2 23. Do you approve or disapprove of Kerry's public opposition to the Vietnam War after he left the military in 1969? ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
9/8/04 RV 37 19 18 49 19 30 14 24. Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the election this November: (Bush) or (Kerry)? Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) Someone else (vol.) No op.
9/8/04 RV 63 26 0 * 11 24a. Overall do you think Bush has done more to (unite the country), or has done more to (divide the country)? Unite Divide No opin.
9/8/04 RV 48 44 8
8/29/04 RV 47 48 5
4/18/04 50 48 2
3/7/04 48 49 3
12/21/03 58 36 6 25. In general, do you feel that government programs do more to (improve) people's lives, or do more to (interfere with) people's lives? Improve people's lives Interfere with people's lives No op.
9/8/04 RV 46 44 11 26. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? ----Worth fighting---- ----Not worth fighting--- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly op.
9/8/04 RV 51 38 13 45 10 34 4
8/29/04 RV 48 34 14 50 11 39 2
7/25/04 49 36 13 48 11 37 3
6/20/04 47 32 14 52 13 39 2
5/23/04 48 35 13 50 13 37 1
5/6/04 49 NA NA 47 NA NA 5
4/18/04 51 47 2
3/7/04 52 44 3
2/11/04 48 50 2
1/18/04 56 41 3
12/21/03 59 39 2
12/14/03 53 42 5
11/16/03 52 44 4
10/29/03 54 44 2
10/13/03 54 44 2
9/13/03 61 37 2
9/7/03 54 42 4
8/24/03 57 37 5
8/11/03 61 35 4
7/10/03 57 40 3
6/22/03 64 33 3
4/30/03 70 " " 27 " " 4 Gulf War:
2/2/92* 66 NA NA 32 NA NA 2
7/28/91 67 30 3
6/2/91 70 26 3
3/4/91 86 " " 13 " " 1
*2/2/92 and previous: "the Persian Gulf war"; 3/4/91: "this war 27. Do you think the war with Iraq has or has not contributed to the long- term security of the United States? IF YES: Has it contributed to the long- term security of the United States a great deal, or somewhat? ----------Contributed---------- Has No
NET Great deal Somewhat not opin.
9/8/04 RV 57 36 22 40 3
8/29/04 RV 54 33 20 42 4
7/25/04 51 32 19 45 3
6/20/04 51 28 23 46 2
5/23/04 54 30 24 43 3
4/18/04 57 33 24 40 3
3/7/04 57 29 29 40 3
2/11/04 58 32 26 38 4
1/18/04 59 34 25 38 3
12/21/03 62 34 29 34 4
7/10/03* 62 33 29 35 3
*"did or did not" 28. Do you think of the war with Iraq as (part of the war against terrorism), or as (separate from the war against terrorism)? Part Separate No opinion
9/8/04 RV 58 39 3
9/13/03 66 32 2
9/7/03 65 31 4
4/16/03 77 22 1 29. Do you think the United States (has gotten bogged down in Iraq), or do you think the United States (is making good progress in Iraq)? Has gotten bogged down Is making good progress No op.
9/8/04 RV 54 40 6
5/23/04 65 33 2
5/6/04 60 35 5
4/18/04 59 41 0 30. Would you say most Americans are better off financially than they were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially? Better Not as The No
off well off same opinion
9/8/04 RV 19 42 37 3
8/29/04 RV 14 46 39 1
8/1/04 RV 18 47 34 1
7/25/04 15 41 43 1
6/20/04 17 45 37 1
4/18/04 18 43 37 2
3/7/04 17 43 38 1
2/11/04 14 47 38 1
1/18/04 13 42 43 2
12/21/03 17 40 41 2
10/29/03 9 49 41 1
9/13/03 9 52 38 1
4/30/03 10 48 42 1 George H. W. Bush
8/9/92 6 61 31 1
10/21/91 7 48 41 4
3/4/91 7 35 56 2
1/16/89 33 26 38 3 31. Do you think the United States is winning or losing the war on terrorism? Neither/It's No
Winning Losing a draw (vol.) opinion
9/8/04 RV 55 25 10 10
8/29/04 RV 54 31 12 4
7/25/04 51 34 10 5
4/18/04 54 30 13 3
3/7/04 56 27 14 3
10/6/02 47 24 21 9 32. Compared to before September 11, 2001, do you think the country today is safer from terrorism or less safe from terrorism? IF SAFER: Would you say the country is much safer or somewhat safer? ---------Safer--------- Less No diff. No
NET Much Somewhat safe (vol.) opin.
9/8/04 RV 64 26 38 28 5 3
8/29/04 RV 60 24 36 31 7 2
1/18/04 67 28 39 24 8 1
9/7/03 67 24 42 27 4 2 33. How much confidence do you have in the ability of the U.S. government to prevent further terrorist attacks against Americans in this country: a great deal, a good amount, only a fair amount or none at all? --------Confident-------- -----Not confident---- No
NET Grt.deal Good amt. NET Fair amt. None opin.
9/8/04 RV 52 16 35 47 39 8 1
9/7/03 45 14 31 55 48 7 1
9/8/02 50 12 38 49 43 6 *
7/15/02 46 13 33 54 45 9 *
6/9/02 44 14 30 55 44 11 *
5/19/02 46 17 29 52 42 10 2
3/10/02 55 18 38 44 39 5 *
1/27/02 57 18 40 42 37 6 1
11/27/01 63 24 39 36 32 5 1
11/6/01 52 17 35 47 40 7 1
9/11/01 66 35 31 32 30 2 1
6/2/97 35 10 26 62 52 10 3
8/5/96 35 12 23 65 49 16 *
5/14/95 36 12 24 63 51 12 1
4/20/95 37 13 24 62 51 11 1
6/28/93 59 22 37 41 32 8 1
4/3/89 46 16 30 54 38 16 * 34. How concerned are you about the possibility there will be more major terrorist attacks in the United States - is that something that worries you a great deal, somewhat, not too much or not at all? ---------Concerned--------- -------Not concerned---- No
NET Grt.deal Somewhat NET Not much At all op.
9/8/04 RV 73 25 47 27 20 7 1
9/7/03 71 25 46 29 20 9 *
3/20/03 76 29 47 24 16 8 1
2/16/03 72 27 45 27 18 9 1
9/8/02 74 22 52 26 19 7 0
7/15/02 73 29 44 27 20 7 *
4/21/02 73 30 43 26 18 9 *
3/10/02 70 23 47 30 21 9 1
12/19/01 70 27 43 29 22 8 1
10/15/01 77 35 43 23 14 9 0
10/9/01 82 36 46 18 12 6 *
10/7/01 81 41 40 18 13 4 1
9/27/01* 83 43 39 17 12 5 *
9/11/01 87 49 38 12 7 4 1
6/13/97 62 21 41 38 24 14 *
6/2/97 63 22 41 37 28 9 *
8/5/96 74 31 43 26 18 8 *
4/20/95 78 38 40 21 16 5 1
*9/27/01 and previous: "How concerned are you about the possibility there
will be more major terrorist attacks in this country." 35. How concerned are you about the chance that you personally might be the victim of a terrorist attack - does that worry you a great deal, somewhat, not too much or not at all? --------Concerned-------- -----Not concerned---- No
NET Grt.deal Somewhat NET Not much At all opin.
9/8/04 RV 33 8 24 67 36 32 *
9/7/03 35 10 24 65 34 31 *
2/16/03 34 10 23 65 37 28 2
9/8/02 32 7 25 68 35 33 *
11/6/01 35 10 25 64 33 31 *
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