Washington Post Poll
This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone September 12 to 16, 2012, among a random sample of 1,104 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Interviews were conducted on conventional and cellular telephones, and carried out in English and Spanish by Abt-SRBI of New York. The results from the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; it is four points for the samples of 934 registered voters and 847 likely voters.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the 2012 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
9/16/12 RV 89 50 39 11 7 4 *
10/25/08 RV 92 62 30 7 5 2 1
9/21/08 RV 93 58 35 7 6 1 *
2. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think Already
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No
to vote vote 50/50 that (vol.) (vol.) op.
9/16/12 RV 89 4 4 3 0 NA *
10/25/08 RV 88 4 2 1 1 5 0
9/21/08 RV 88 6 5 2 * NA *
3. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward (Obama) or toward (Romney)?
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – registered voters
Other Neither Would not No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
9/16/12 RV 50 43 1 3 1 1
5/2/12 RV 51 44 1 2 * 2
5/4/11 RV 50 44 * 2 1 4
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – likely voters
Other Neither Would not No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
9/16/12 LV 52 44 1 2 0 1
4. (IF SUPPORT OBAMA OR ROMNEY) Will you definitely vote for (OBAMA/ROMNEY), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (CANDIDATE NOT NAMED)? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Would you say (there’s a good chance) you'll change your mind, or would you say (it’s pretty unlikely)?
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
9/16/12 RV 85 14 5 9 1
10/25/08 RV 90 9 3 5 2
9/21/08 RV 81 18 5 12 2
Barack Obama:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
9/16/12 RV 88 11 4 7 1
10/25/08 RV 91 7 3 4 2
9/21/08 RV 82 17 5 12 1
Mitt Romney:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
9/16/12 RV 82 17 6 12 1
Compare to: John McCain
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/25/08 RV 89 10 4 6 2
9/21/08 RV 80 18 5 13 2
5. (IF SUPPORT OBAMA OR ROMENY) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Obama/Romney) somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic --- No
NET Very Smwhat NET Not so Not at all opinion
Barack Obama:
9/16/12 RV 92 61 31 8 7 1 0
10/25/08 RV 97 70 28 3 2 * 0
9/21/08 RV 96 64 32 4 4 0 *
Mitt Romney:
9/16/12 RV 85 45 40 14 10 5 1
6. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How about if the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were {(Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats), (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans)}, {(Gary Johnson and James Gray, from the Libertarian Party), (Virgil Goode and Jim Clymer, from the Constitution Party), and (Jill Stein and Cheri Honkala, from the Green Party)}, for whom would you vote? Which candidates are you leaning toward?
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – registered voters
Other Neither Would not No
Obama Romney Johnson Goode Stein (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
9/16/12 RV 48 40 4 2 1 * 1 2 2
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – likely voters
Other Neither Would not No
Obama Romney Johnson Goode Stein (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
9/16/12 LV 49 41 4 2 1 * 1 * 1
7. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) For each item I name, please tell me how important it will be in your vote for President. The first is (ITEM). Will that be extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or less important than that?
9/16/12 – summary table*
-- More Important -- - Less important - No
NET Extremely Very NET Somewhat Less op.
a. The economy 93 54 39 7 6 1 *
b. Spending on the military 70 32 38 29 23 6 1
c. The federal budget deficit 78 43 36 20 17 3 1
d. Medicare, the government
health insurance program for
seniors 77 41 36 23 18 5 *
e. Medicaid, the government
health insurance and long
term care program for certain
low-income adults and children 68 34 34 31 24 7 1
f. Immigration issues 52 19 33 48 36 12 1
g. Social issues such as abortion
and gay marriage 49 28 21 50 22 28 1
h. International affairs 71 27 44 27 22 5 2
i. Taxes 76 34 41 24 20 4 *
*Full sample asked item a-e; half sample asked items f-g; other half sample asked items h-i.
8. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job [ITEM] – (Obama) or (Romney)?
9/16/12 - Summary Table*
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
a. Handling the economy 47 45 1 5 2
b. Handling military spending 50 44 1 2 3
c. Determining the future of the
Medicare program 52 39 * 3 5
d. Determining the future of the
Medicaid program 55 37 * 4 4
e. Dealing with the federal
budget deficit 44 48 1 5 3
f. Dealing with social issues such
as abortion and gay marriage 54 34 * 5 6
g. Advancing the interests of
the middle class 55 36 * 4 4
h. Addressing women’s issues 58 36 * 3 3
i. Handling taxes 49 46 * 3 2
j. Handling international affairs 53 42 1 2 3
*Full sample asked items a-d; half sample asked items e-g; other half sample asked items h-j.
9. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think better understands the economic problems people in this country are having – (Obama) or (Romney)?
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
9/16/12 RV 54 37 2 7 1
10. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Now, turning to the U.S. Senate election in Virginia, if the 2012 election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, would you vote for (Tim Kaine, the Democrat) or (George Allen, the Republican)? Which one are you leaning toward right now?
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – registered voters
Other Neither Would not No
Kaine Allen (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
9/16/12 RV 50 42 * 3 1 4
5/2/12 RV 46 46 1 NA 2 5
5/4/11 RV 46 46 * NA 2 6
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – likely voters
Other Neither Would not No
Kaine Allen (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
9/16/12 LV 51 43 * 2 * 4
11. (IF SUPPORT KAINE OR ALLEN) Will you definitely vote for (KAINE/ALLEN), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (CANDIDATE NOT NAMED)? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Would you say (there’s a good chance) you'll change your mind, or would you say (it’s pretty unlikely)?
Definitely ------- Change mind ------- No
vote NET Good chance Unlikely opinion
Tim Kaine:
9/16/12 RV 76 21 9 12 3
10/26/05 LV 80 18 7 11 1
9/9/05 LV 59 40 16 24 2
9/9/05 RV 54 44 21 23 3
George Allen:
9/16/12 RV 76 22 4 18 2
10/26/00 LV 78 21 10 11 1
8/27/00 LV 68 28 12 16 3
8/27/00 RV 63 33 16 17 3
12. (IF SUPPORT KAINE OR ALLEN) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Kaine/Allen), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic --- No
NET Very Smwhat NET Not so Not at all opinion
Tim Kaine:
9/16/12 RV 82 39 43 17 14 2 1
5/2/12 RV 75 24 51 24 18 6 2
George Allen:
9/16/12 RV 82 37 45 16 14 2 2
5/2/12 RV 72 17 55 27 21 5 1
Compare to – 10/12/06 likely voters in Senate race:
---Enthusiastic---- --Not enthusiastic--- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opin.
a. George Allen 90 43 47 9 7 2 1
b. James Webb 84 25 60 15 12 3 *
10/26/05 likely voters in governor’s race:
a. Tim Kaine 86 30 56 13 11 2 1
b. Jerry Kilgore 85 27 58 14 13 2 1
13. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Again thinking ahead to U.S. Senate race in Virginia, what is the single most important issue in your vote between Kaine and Allen?
9/16/12
Economy 29
Jobs/unemployment 10
Education 5
Taxes 5
Health care/Obamacare 3
State budget deficit 3
Abortion 2
Beating Obama/electing Romney/
Supporting the Republicans 2
Transportation/traffic/roads
and transit 2
Social Issues 2
Spending 2
Women’s issues/women’s health 2
Federal budget deficit 2
Beating Romney/re-electing Obama/
Supporting the Democrats 1
Environment 1
Ethics/honesty/corruption
in government 1
Experience 1
Helping the middle class 1
Medicare 1
Gay marriage 1
Afghanistan/War in Afghanistan *
Banks/Financial institutions *
Foreign policy *
Gas/oil prices *
Global warming *
Guns/Gun control *
Iran/Situation in Iran *
Immigration/illegal immigration *
Morals/family values *
Social Security *
Terrorism/national security *
Other (SPECIFY) 11
No opinion 13
14. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you think things in this country (are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)?
Right Wrong No
direction track opinion
9/16/12 RV 41 56 3
5/2/12 RV 32 65 3
5/2/12 31 66 3
5/4/11 31 65 4
8/14/09 37 58 5
9/21/08 RV 15 83 3
10/26/05 LV 34 64 3
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
9/16/12 RV 53 32 21 46 9 37 1
9/16/12 52 31 21 43 9 34 5
5/2/12 RV 50 32 18 47 13 34 2
5/2/12 53 32 21 44 13 30 3
5/4/11 52 29 23 43 12 31 5
10/25/09 RV 57 37 20 40 12 28 3
10/7/09 RV 58 37 21 39 11 28 3
9/17/09 LV 53 38 15 47 11 36 1
8/14/09 RV 57 39 17 41 11 31 2
16. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
9/16/12 RV 51 29 22 48 8 40 2
9/17/09 LV 52 35 17 47 9 38 1
8/14/09 RV 51 31 20 47 11 37 2
8/14/09 52 32 20 47 11 36 2
17. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the [CANDIDATE] campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?
9/16/12 - Summary Table
Yes No No opinion
a. Obama 33 65 1
b. Romney 31 68 1
18. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell is handling his job as governor?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
9/16/12 RV 58 24 34 27 13 14 15
5/2/12 RV 58 18 40 36 19 16 7
5/2/12 56 18 39 35 19 16 8
5/4/11 RV 64 23 41 26 12 13 11
5/4/11 62 21 40 26 13 14 12
On another subject,
19. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Generally speaking, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of (NAME)?
9/16/12 – Summary Table
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
a. George Allen 51 17 34 35 16 19 14
b. Tim Kaine 54 22 32 34 16 18 11
c. Barack Obama 57 40 17 42 10 32 1
d. Joe Biden 50 24 26 44 12 32 6
e. Mitt Romney 47 25 21 49 14 34 5
f. Paul Ryan 46 25 21 42 15 27 12
Trend where available:
a. George Allen
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
9/16/12 RV 51 17 34 35 16 19 14
5/2/12 RV 47 12 35 31 18 13 22
5/2/12 46 12 34 31 18 13 24
5/4/11 RV 52 16 36 28 15 13 20
5/4/11 51 16 35 26 15 11 23
10/12/06 LV 53 NA NA 43 NA NA 4
9/9/05 RV 58 NA NA 28 NA NA 14
9/16/97 60 NA NA 26 NA NA 13
9/28/93 RV 43 NA NA 36 NA NA 21
b. Tim Kaine
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
9/16/12 RV 54 22 32 34 16 18 11
5/2/12 RV 41 13 27 41 22 19 18
5/2/12 41 15 26 39 21 18 20
5/4/11 RV 57 19 38 28 16 12 15
5/4/11 56 17 38 28 16 12 17
10/12/06 LV 67 NA NA 23 NA NA 10
10/26/05 LV 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8
9/9/05 RV 55 NA NA 25 NA NA 21
c. Barack Obama
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
9/16/12 RV 57 40 17 42 10 32 1
5/4/11 RV 54 34 20 43 13 29 3
5/4/11 55 34 22 41 13 27 4
10/25/08 RV 67 46 21 30 8 22 3
20. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) For each item I name, please tell me if it is a major reason for you to (support) that candidate for U.S. Senate, a major reason for you to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor in your senate vote?
9/16/12 - Summary Table
Major Major Not a
reason to reason to major No
support oppose factor op.
a. Kaine’s work as chairman of the
Democratic National Committee 21 21 51 7
b. Kaine’s performance as governor 36 23 36 5
c. Allen’s performance as governor 32 19 41 8
d. Allen’s work in the private sector
on behalf of energy companies 21 17 51 11
21. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Will one reason for your vote for U.S. Senate be to express (support for) President Obama, to express (opposition to) Obama, or is Obama not a factor in your choice?
Support Opposition Obama not a factor No opinion
9/16/12 RV 28 20 50 2
5/4/11 RV 26 21 51 2
5/4/11 27 20 50 2
Compare to “express support for/opposition to Bush” 2006:
10/12/06 LV 12 25 63 *
Changing topics,
22. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally (favorable) or generally (unfavorable) opinion of it? Is that a very [favorable/unfavorable] or somewhat [favorable/unfavorable] opinion?)
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
9/16/12 RV 46 28 19 47 15 32 7
Next, I have a few questions about the Medicare program, the government health insurance program for seniors
23. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Would you say the current Medicare program is working well for most seniors, or not?
Medicare is Medicare is not No
working well working well opinion
9/16/12 RV 64 27 10
24. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you think (changes need to be made to the Medicare program to keep it sustainable for the future), or do you think (the Medicare program will basically be fine if we leave it as is)?
Medicare needs to be changed Medicare is fine No
to keep it sustainable if we leave it as is opinion
9/16/12 RV 76 18 6
25. (AMONG THOSE WHO SAY CHANGES NEEDED) Do you think we need to make (major) changes or (minor) changes to Medicare to keep it sustainable for the future?
Major changes Minor changes No opinion
9/16/12 RV 53 41 6
26. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Which of these two descriptions comes closer to your view of what Medicare should look like in the future? (OPTION A: Medicare should continue as it is today, with the government guaranteeing all seniors the same set of health insurance benefits), or (OPTION B: Medicare should be changed to a system in which the government guarantees each senior a fixed amount of money to help them purchase coverage either from traditional Medicare or from a list of private health plans)?
Option A Option B Other No
Medicare continue Medicare privatize (vol.) opinion
9/16/12 RV 56 35 2 6
27. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Which comes closer to your opinion – (if policymakers made the right changes, they could reduce the federal budget deficit without reducing Medicare spending) or (in order to significantly reduce the federal budget deficit policymakers will need to reduce Medicare spending)?
Policymakers can reduce Medicare spending needs
deficit without reducing to be reduced in order No
Medicare spending to reduce the deficit opinion
9/16/12 RV 73 21 7
28. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you think it should be LEGAL or ILLEGAL for gay and lesbian couples to get married?
--------- Legal --------- -------- Illegal -------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
9/16/12 RV 49 33 16 40 8 32 12
5/4/11 RV 46 31 15 43 8 35 11
5/4/11 47 30 17 43 8 35 11
29. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
------ Legal ------ ----- Illegal -----
All Most Most All No
NET cases cases NET cases cases opinion
9/16/12 RV 60 29 31 36 24 12 4
5/2/12 RV 61 25 35 36 22 14 3
5/2/12 59 26 33 38 22 16 3
5/4/11 RV 54 18 36 39 26 13 7
5/4/11 53 17 36 40 26 14 6
10/7/09 LV 59 24 35 38 27 11 3
9/17/09 LV 58 19 40 39 27 12 3
8/14/09 55 18 37 42 26 16 3
9/21/08 RV 60 22 38 38 25 12 3
6/3/07 55 18 37 40 25 15 4
10/26/05 LV 61 21 39 38 28 10 2
9/9/05 RV 55 21 35 43 28 15 2
10/25/01 LV 57 21 36 39 28 11 4
8/23/01 RV 57 21 37 39 27 12 3
10/26/00 LV 58 18 40 38 27 12 4
8/27/00 RV 57 18 39 38 26 12 5
30. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) I’ll now read a list of potential Virginia gubernatorial candidates. For each, please tell me if you would definitely vote for him in the November 2013 general election next year if he were on the ballot, if you would consider voting for him or if you would definitely NOT vote for him?
If (INSERT) were the Democratic nominee for governor, would you definitely vote for him in November 2013, would you consider voting for him or would you definitely not vote for him?
9/16/12 – summary table
Definitely Would Definitely No
would consider would not opinion
a. Terry McAuliffe 7 33 28 32
b. Mark Warner 29 39 22 10
Now on the other side,
31. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If (INSERT) were the Republican nominee for governor, would you definitely vote for him in November 2013, would you consider voting for him or would you definitely not vote for him?
9/16/12 – summary table
Definitely Would Definitely No
would consider would not opinion
a. Ken Cuccinelli 12 32 41 15
b. Bill Bolling 7 41 30 22
901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?
-Non-Partisans--
Lean Lean No
Democrat Republican Independent Other No op. Dem. Rep. Lean
9/16/12 LV 35 26 33 5 1 16 16 11
9/16/12 RV 33 26 35 5 1 16 17 8
9/16/12 32 24 35 5 4 16 16 11
5/2/12 31 25 36 5 2 17 15 10
5/2/12 RV 31 27 36 5 2 16 16 9
5/4/11 31 22 36 7 4 17 17 11
5/4/11 RV 32 24 35 6 3 15 17 10
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